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[music] Hello I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk Live. Will take you through its moving through the markets about investing. Coming about today show. We'll take a look at the Summer rally that we've been enjoying and see how much faith we can put in it. Michael Craig Head of Asset Allocation at TD Asset Management joined us. Here's how you can get in touch with us with your questions. Just email moneytalklive@td.com. The same time, the markets are in a bit of a flux. Let's look at the TSX. It in a positive territory about 1/3 of a percent of 66 points. Earlier I was watching some money move back into some of the energy names. Now you have the American benchmark crude under pressure down 3%. Some of those bigger names just a while ago, drifting into negative territory including Bay tax energy at six bucks and $0. 31 a share down about 2 1/2%. Earlier this session, we did see some weakness in the technology space. Shopify coming off the lows of the session, still in negative territory though with 50 bucks and $0. 69. Down about 1 1/2%. So why is there a green arrow on the top line on the TSX composition next? The financials continuing. The south of the border, the S&P 500, and no shortage of worries but investors are trying to juggle all these concerns we have about the global economy with some pretty decent earnings including Walmart and Home Depot. We'll tell you what about those later the show. The NASDAQ, we have seen some weakness in the big tech names today. It too is off the lows of the session. Still down with a little less than 1/3 of a percent. easing off from early gains, a pretty modest 1% in aftermarket update. [music] We've been enjoying a Summer rally in stocks and trying to figure out what's next for the US Federal Reserve. At the ready to pivot? Our featured guest today warns that we might be in a classic bear market rally. Joining us now is Michael Craig Head of Asset Allocation at TD Asset Management. Here's the question of the Summer for investors: can we put faith in this rally? What we see here? >> We are coming off really bummed out in the sentiment levels of late June. I think going into the Summer, people are on vacation. This is classic bear market dynamics where you see double-digit rallies off the press lows. So the question is is it sustainable? I would say the next two months look to be a very challenging season. I would be quite cautious going into September. At these levels. After seeing such a big double-digit rally. >> Of course the big story of the year has been inflation. It kept moving higher and higher and higher. Releasing shockwaves to the market. We have the Canadian number today. Were starting to ease. But still and comfortably high. We have the US recently, the market rejoicing in the fact that it's only 8 1/2%. 8.7%. >> It's like losing weight. The first 5 pounds is easy. It's just water. Then the hard work begins. Inflationary numbers came off as a function of gas prices and cars. Very cyclical factors. I don't think it should shock anybody. We had some good news in the back of a bleak outlook. So the market really ran with it. For us to take this and now say that the Fed will pivot is a bit of a stretch. We will probably be in… By Christmas. But the real challenging part is the structural aspects. I do believe they will fall. It's just going to take longer. Some of those metrics tend to follow unemployment. They will take a longer time to roll over then more cyclical factors. So we will still be talking about inflation well into next year. Unlike the Fed can really pivot until I have inflation under control and I think it will take longer than you think. >> Is part of the discussion perhaps around the Federal Reserve table? The central banks seem to have lost a bit of a faith of the people. Earlier this year, are the inflations transitory? It seemed like inflation had copped them out. Do they have work to do to restore our confidence in their ability to keep inflation in check? >> I think broad media still has the gun. But if you look at market expectations of inflation, they have quite a lower market participants. I think long-term inflation excitations are… Anchored might be too strong a word. The Michigan data on five-year expectations came out last week and it continues to trend lower. Year out, higher. But I think people think long-term inflation excitations are something to be anchored. I think, the various Fed governors have all kind of come from all different walks of life in terms of… They have been uniform in terms of saying "we are tightening policy until we can inflation under control." Very rarely do you see them singing from the same choir book, if you will. So I think that's where you to take them at their word. They have to have tighter policy until inflation is under control. >> If you take them at their word that they will do whatever they need to do to get inflation under control, could that mean a recession then? The whole point of raising rates is to start slowing what seems like an insatiable demand to have cheap money for every asset get our hands on. >> Obviously they don't want to create a recession but if that's what it takes to get inflation under control they will take that. Pregnancy hikes hiking until the end of the year. They gonna stay high for some time. The bottom market is kind of looking for cuts as early as the middle of next year. I'm not certain that can be in the cards. So were going to go through a period where money is going to be tight. Expensive. That's what is going to hurt. Were they to get used to higher rates as they keep hiking. But it's that extended period of time with a restrictive policy. That's where I think you get into a recession situation. Because the cost of money is so much higher that it has been in previous years. >> Given all that I'm a I think it's pretty fair to say when you talk to the average investor that they feel pretty burned about what happened at the beginning of the year. They are a bit puzzled now and don't know if they can trust it. What we do with our money in times like these? >> Well it's the old adage, it's a bit of a blip if you look at old charters of return. It's no fun being down 10%. But we have had it pretty good for a number of years now. I always say step back and the biggest risk to investors is when you don't have the money there. In terms of the next 12 months, a few things: number one, the bottom market has had a really rotten six months start to the year. Today, bottom investors for a long time of been under pressure because yields have not been very attractive. Today, you can look at the bottom market and yields are far higher than they have been in the past. In terms of looking at bond yields, four, 5%… Investment grade Index. So that's attractive. On the other stock side, I would be cautious going into the fall. But at some point of the next 12 months, opportune levels for long-term capital accumulation. And the third thing, what gets lost is that last year everyone was an expert in investing. A lot of those fads have really been hurt this year. So it's important to be mindful that we have these markets and there are no fun but it's that permanent loss of capital. When you have things disappear, that's what really hurts investors. So I would say, particularly going into the next 10 years, that's what you want to avoid is that type of loss. That gets you more tangential investments if you will. As we come out of this and we start to recover. >> It sounds like you still have that balanced portfolio in the longer run. It is proven to work for us. I think that faith being shaken about how miserable bonds where the first half of the year. People are saying "okay, my equities are down but luckily, I'm diversifying my portfolio" with whatever Matthew sliced up. They look at their bonds and it was a bit of an anomaly. We are going into unprecedented times were bonds and equities were suffering to that degree. >> I have not actually been live since the last time we started. I'm not that young. It is a bit of an anomaly. I think there are lessons to be learned. The first half of the year, outside of energy and commodities, these were the only places to hit out. I do think we need to be mindful that the next 10 years, stagflationary. Slick we didn't have Lester are more likely to occur again. There are certain ways to of all the balanced portfolio. Our sense of commodities. … You have a tough miserable time but it does set you up for future higher turns as even equities are far more attractive than they were in the beginning of the year. >> Great start to the start of the program. Read question. We will get your questions from Michael Craig in just a moment. Reminding you that you get in touch with us at any time by emailing us at moneytalklive@td.com or fill out that viewer response box. Now let's take a look at the trading. >> Lower gasoline prices help slow the pace of inflation for Canadians in July. Numbers from statistics Canada show a 7.6 annual increase in consumer prices for the month. That is down from 8.1% in June. While declining prices of the pumps are working to ease some of those price pressures on the headline, inflation is still running well above the Bank of Canada start of 2%. In our central bank is expected to continue hiking borrowing costs in the hopes of bringing inflation under control. The latest earnings from Walmart While the retailer did manage to beat streets expectations, it is noting a shift in a shopper behaviour. With greater shares of household budgets going toward food and fuel. Walmart is reporting a slowdown in sales of clothes and other apparel goods. Home Depot's latest quarter results came in above analysis expectations and estimates. With net sales of more than 6% compared to the same period last year and for the full year, Home Depot is still forecasting at 3% rise in sales compared to 2021. And now the TSX index in a positive territory. Seeing some weakness in energy names which were leading in the morning part of the session but a shift now. … 74 points to the other side… South of the border we are seeing some weakness in tact. Some retail earnings starting to roll in beats from big names like Walmart and Home Depot. 4308 with the S&P 500 up 1/4 of a percent. We are back now with Michael Craig ahead of asset allocation with TD Bank allocation. Let's get to the questions. You mention this word during our opening chat. Let's dig a little deeper. How big is the wrist of stagflation in this current environment question mark >> For an extended period of time, I would say low. Stagflation light, if you will. The thing about stagflation in a period of low growth and high inflation, in certain jurisdictions of the world I would say it's a risk. In the UK it's in if you like stagflation. That has been policy choices, reducing the amount of new workers… As well as their crisis with heating costs. So they are kind of Ground Zero, if you will for stagflation area environment. The cost of gas because of what's happening in Eastern Europe, I think that's where there's a real stagflation risk. Not in the classical sense were you think that there is just too much demand in the economy is not incentivized to produce to meet that demand. It's more of a tax where we just don't have the energy for various reasons. Or the workers in the UK. In North America, a very different picture. We are dealing with inflation. Growth is slowing. At some point that will start to accelerate again. I don't think were in a period of low growth policy where incentives aren't there over a longer period of time. With this tight layover market right now, it's really weird when we are, at this point in the cycle, you would expect to see everyone who left the workforce during COVID to return. In the US there are still one half million workers missing from pre-COVID. Some people retiring and some don't want to go back to work. So that means shortages in the workforce and wage pressures. This will actually spur a lot of investing irregularities. We talk about growth like it's this homogenous thing. Greg, you could pay me to dig holes in the ground and call it growth. There's better ways to do it. Ultimately what we really want is productivity. We want investment to be able to deliver new goods and services. The same ones more efficient. I think the current set up is one where you can see that investment broadening. As a longer-term theme. We do see it in the data. We look at savings versus investment. It peeked out. It is now rolled over as people are investing more and more. Not going to help you next 12 months but longer-term, it really stands the stagflation risk. We have to make sure we don't mix things up. We are probably going to see a period of sustained high energy prices because of the inability to extract fossil fuels and the lack of alternatives to meet that demand. That's more of a tax on living. It's not a stagflationary aspect. A lot going on that question. Thank you for asking you and easy one. >> Okay here's a hard one to follow up. Obviously the US economy was not growing in the first half of the year. Everyone gets into the heated debate about whether you are already in a recession or not. But the argument here that you made as you said the labour market is strong and tight again. Finding the workers you need. What we are dynamic for people to make fairly convincing arguments, at least to my ears, I know we can grow but we can't really call it a recession in the true sense of the word. >> Yes in many ways it's almost like a recession where everything falls down. We actually don't see a big open gap of unemployment. I think it's fair to say that whatever type of recession we go through, I don't see employment going… We won't have a financial crisis where it goes to double digits again. I don't think that's on. So it's a weird one. From what we care about in the investment side, it's still a very challenging period. 2001 was a really like nothing happened kind of recession. But if you're an investor in US equities, it was terrible. So let's not mistake what happens with the stock market and the economy. They are related over time but through this period, you might see different narratives playing up. I think the most pessimistic people will probably be market participants. The stock market is not reflective of what's happening on Main Street. Right now in terms of recessions. So that's probably gonna be one where earnings go into where next year we see a 5% decline in earnings. … Eventually inflation gets back to an acceptable level and the Fed cuts, we go back to a yield curve that slow and we go back to more stable markets. >> Let's go to a question off the platform. Is this a good time to put new money to work in fixed income? We touched about that in the opening chat too. Perhaps we have other people saying "maybe fixed income would be interesting now for the first time in a long time". >> Yes we find that sector attractive. Again, going back to a year ago… If I took our mainstay strategy a year ago, the yield bond was under 2%. Today it's over 4%. Sure… Could you see it go down in the next few months question mark absolutely. But if you have a time horizon that is refractive of a typical investor, yeah. We like the sector first. Based on thinking that the longer term that you will see the front end go higher. But overall, yields a pretty attractive right now. The other thing it's interesting to is that if you go invest in fixed income, your typically right now, most bonds are trading well below par. So you get 100 bucks back. Right now a lot of bonds are trading at 85, 90, $0.92 for the dollar. You are not only getting capital gain but it's quite attractive. >> The dynamics of the bond investments in fixed income, we get a lot of questions from retail investors on the show about GICs. Not bonds. What they're willing to pay for the duration you choose. Starting to look a bit more attractive in terms of the yield they have. It is a different instrument right now with different risks. > Yes. For GIC investors that only use GICs, same thing as fixed income. Very attractive levels. 4% or more. Great time to be a GIC investor. I would always caution in GICs, short-term it makes a ton of sense. But for long-term capital looking relation, probably be better ways to go. The thing with GICs, I would say, you look at it and you say that you can get 4% per year. This is great. In the fixed income market, the returns might necessarily, the sequencing may not be that consistent. Let's say we go into a recession, you can see fixed income returns above that and you have the option analogy to move that money into equities. You have that option to make that decision. Words with GIC, you are locked in for that period of time without taking a penalty. So again, if you're not looking to make a tactical decision along the way, doesn't really matter. But if you are looking over the next four years, you have to be cautious if you're looking at other forms of investment. So if you things to consider. >> Interesting stuff as always. Make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. We'd like your questions for Michael Craig on asset allocation in just a moment's time. A reminder of course that you get in touch with us at any time by emailing us@moneytalklive@td.com. Let's get you caught up on the markets. [music] >> Checking in on the TSX composition index. It was in moderate territory. Hanging in there are 20,271. Making some gains now. 91 points. An interesting part of the week. Yesterday, caution and plenty of things to worry about in the world. Coming off the lows of the session through the afternoon. Right now, 91 points up almost half a percent of the TSX. Let's take a look at the S&P 500. South of the border, it's modest that we have some green on the screen up 1/3 of a percent. We are seeing some weight go from some of the tech names. Let's check on the NASDAQ. See what's happening there. Still in negative territory. Coming off the lows of the session, the NASDAQ 100, 13 points. before we get back to questions of Michael Craig, a reminder of how to get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime@moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on webbrokerjust writing your question and hit send and will seek and get you the answer. >> Back now with Michael Craig and taking your questions about asset allocation and the markets. Lots of questions given the markets we've been living through 2022. Can we get your guests Outlook for oil in the energy sector? >> So we actually have experts in our firm who spent a lot of time shamelessly taking some of those comments. On oil: the next little while, if things play out like I said, go to a slowdown recession, it's good to be under some pressure no question. It's hard to see a recession occur with on oil price lower. So that's something to bear in mind. But, the market is in deep backward… Meaning the front end is trading higher. It's really talking to the pressure to deliver and the shortage versus demand. We have never seen a global economy not reduce oil demand and supply. The amount of available barrels is just not there. So from a five-year horizon, it's hard to see… Oil should do quite well in this environment. Last thing, and on the company side, historically you bought energy companies and you think that the oil price will go higher and they will extract more oil. Today, they are not incentivized to do production like they once were. Much of that cash is a special dividend or some free cash that was very high. So it's a weird place. I one point you might've thought it was cyclical. But now it's almost like an income play. Because remember, the lifespan of these companies, as we move into renewables, is probably shorter. At some point we won't use oil anymore. I don't know when that is. But certainly from an income investor standpoint, a very interesting place to be. So on a thinker can have some short-term. Oil is actually trading below where it was trading before the Ukraine invasion which tells you a lot about how much growth in demand has fallen. So longer-term, particularly in a world of energy insecurity which I think is… It's not an original idea. >> I find that income story fascinating. … We have set announcement after announcement from the major. How we will return after to shareholders and dividends. How long does the energy industry run by that playbook? As you said, if you're not investing for the long term and there's a switch and how we source energy on this planet, what is a logical end to that income story question mark it doesn't seem like on the last forever? >> The shareholders are demanding it. So I suppose the answer is that when the shareholders decide they want you to extract and put it on your work, no one is doing that. Where does this end up? Probably ends up in a much higher price at the pump so consumers are to pay for this. But as investors, I don't see what can shift as often must be say "let's just abandon low carbon economy and the Paris Accord and let it rip. " I don't think it's in the cards globally. Jurisdictions might change that it's hard to go on your own and ignore it. Because you will face trade challenges. Particularly with Europe if you go that route. So I don't think that infrastructure is coming back like it was before. Unless there is fundamental change in the thinking in terms of carbon and climate change. And I think that ship has sailed. >> We are in pretty interesting times. I don't know if it makes these times less stressful for us. But the seismic shifts we are seeing in terms of the way we used to think about things in how we see them going forward. A lot to talk about and to worry about. >> I can see the exhaustion in my colleagues and myself. It's been, the last couple of years has been really something in terms of just things coming at us that we've never seen before. Adjusting. We are in a much more, from a geopolitical perspective, a much more volatile world. It's really forcing investors to think and to evolve their thinking about things and take a lot of factors that perhaps he would've passed on in the previous 10 years. >> Good point indeed. Let's get to another question off the platform. How do you think the Canadian dollar will perform going forward? >> So, with the Canadian dollar, a few things. The US dollar this year is not very interesting. It has massively outperformed other majors, the yen, the euro. If you want to go to a vacation to Japan and Europe or the UK right now, it's basically 20% off. Based on the movement this year. So that's something important going forward. I think that the US was first to really push rate hikes. The first to pivot. That might be next year or whenever. But I think they're gonna go longer. Probably, the US dollar is very elevated right now. We can make the argument over the next 12 months. It kind of rolls over a bit. The Canadian dollar should do okay. But it will probably underperform. I would not be shocked to see a bit of a reversal where the… Under four underperforms the yen in Europe and does okay over time. I wouldn't be shocked to see it move back to the $0.90 handle versus the USD. There are a lot of things going from Canada. So that's more of a longer term asset allocation. Versus the term decision of the next 12 months. >> There are times we can make the argument of it being petro currency. the governorship the Bank of Canada, its petro currency until it isn't. It moves like this until it doesn't move like that anymore. > Our economy has a lot more involved. There's a lot more going on in Canada just oil. The second thing is that part of that rally was capital coming here to exploit resources. A lot of money invested in the oil sense. That's all net flow in Canada. Today it was higher in terms of trade. But it's not attracting new money coming here from capital into the oil field. So that's the big, I think the big Delta. >> What's your view on housing right now? Obviously, we've seen a cooling there as well. >>this is ground zero for Tiger policy. If you were to ask me what's the most effective? It's a housing. I think that a massive run up in an unsustainable run-up. Every time you kind of have that,… I think as long as we have these tight policies, if we sit at 3 1/4 or 4% over a year, housing is in a be struggling. Particularly in those markets. It's been particularly elevated and when you look at those markets, if the peripheral, the suburbs that probably get hit more than the classic waves out and waves in. I think it's good to be a challenge. Think about it. There were a lot of folks who use their household balance sheet to buy more property. You go from 120, then there is a $30,000 increase in cost. That really slows down the economy because that's money wouldn't be… Again it's a tax. I think it's innovative bit of a challenging period. The long-term demographics are very supportive. We've got immigration accessible in the population. Still housing shortage longer term. But also a lot of investments by Canadians and second, third or fourth homes. That's where I worry that it's going to be prohibitive in terms of the borrowing costs going higher and the rent income is not moving as much. That's where I worry we could have some problems. >> It was astonishing during the pandemic. In terms of remote work. People being able to tap their equity for the big city home. But the amount of the price increases, not only in the suburbs but a 2 Hour Dr. from Toronto. Some big urban centre saw prices going high. There are so many unknowns and variables. You have to assume at some point, at least I assume at some point, there will be a proximity Premium again. The reason Toronto prices are higher than houses in Ontario is really because it's a long way from other jobs. Everything everything was turned on its head during the pandemic. >> It's interesting a job are you always working remotely. Pre-pandemic you are fine. My sense is there's going to be a real call. We see with COVID this fall, over the next few years there will be a pullback to the centre's of creative centre is… But whether they are downtown or the suburbs, I think, what's interesting is if you look at the work from home companies, if you put them in a proxy, and they have been crushed this year. So all those companies that were kind of playing that "work from home " market is totally counting them out now. I don't think the behaviour is caught up to them yet. But it is saying something with investment thesis. Does that lead to more traditional working environments? Maybe it's four days a week… Something like that. I think is going to be a rude awakening for some were perhaps their employment was not as flexible as they want and they need to be kind of back in their areas where they were before. On the side, our view purchases just went up like crazy during COVID and now they're being dumped. So the behaviour that have occurred during COVID is being reversed in various different areas. So, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out. That's why think I'm a bit more worried about, kind of, rural places where prices went up 80%. >> In my previous job I spent a year and 1/2 staring instead of a big beautiful studio like this and these professional cameras, into a little phone. In an 8 x 8 room. I prefer to be here for sure. All right. Were going to get back to your questions. there are two ways to get in touch with us. You can send us an email at moneytalklive@td.com. You can use also the question box right below the screen here on webbroker. Just writing your question and hit send and we'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer you need it MoneyTalk Live. Let's do a check in on the markets. The TSX index making fairly decent again and amid all this push and pull. … Early some of the energy names leading. And now higher is the consumer names, the telecom stocks and financials that are putting the most points on the table. The energy names of actually shifted with the price of crude coming under pressure again as we come into the afternoon. You have Athabasca oil which was an example of one of the gainers in the area now in negative territory. A little more than 2%. Let's check it on the S&P 500. As we said we are getting some retail behemoths including Home Depot and Walmart starting to report and investors seemed pleased with what they got with those two companies. Overall you have the index even though there some weakness with tech on Wall Street, still positive territory. A little shy of 13 points. Let's check in on the NASDAQ coming off the lows of the session. Just slightly underwater. It down a little less than nine points. Walmart seems to is cleared those hurdles at least in the eyes of the analyst community. $140. Walmart up a little less than eight dollars a share. A little less than 6%. They did mention about the shifting buying habits about consumers in the face of soaring costs. If you're spending more on food and non-fuel, you're not spending as much on apparel. In the end they were still able to clear expectations. >> We are back now with Michael Craig Head of Asset Allocation at TD Asset Management. Another question just came in a couple moments ago. Do you think were in a start to see the political division in the US spilling into the equity markets at some point? >> Wow that's a hard one. I don't think so. I actually think we are probably going into the next election, it will probably be the Zenith of division. This is not the first time the US has gone through this but you have to rally people around common issues. It doesn't feel like it today. But whether it's 2024 or 2028, a new batch of leaders will be coming in. I think there are issues that do unite them. China re-shoring, focus on the American families… That is cross party. Other issues are not. But this is very different than the previous 10 years we had parties basically not speaking to the people of the other side. I actually think that in terms of trajectory, will probably get more division in Canada in the near term and a bit more congruence in the US. In terms of the equity markets, where you could have challenges and what to watch for, is if you get situations where it's very hard to do business. Like California versus Texas for a variety of reasons. Then companies can't scale that would be very bad for the stock market. That's something to watch for. But it hasn't occurred yet. >> Yeah, when you mentioned Texas and California… Saying I like your policy here in California so I'm going to take my ball in my glove and moved to Texas. >> That's tax. That's no big deal. But completely different value systems were you just can operate in one jurisdiction in the other and be mutually inclusive or where you have, when power goes to states, they start enacting laws that are counter to how companies work. That's where you get a real fragmentation and that will be problematic. Again, challenging question. But that's something to watch for in terms of the US. More more power going back to the states could be really problematic for companies operating across state lines. >> What you think of election cycles in the United States? I think what impact they can have the equity markets. Some election cycles they will choose a sector. And it becomes politically expedient and politically valuable to say "we don't like the healthcare companies charging on drugs" there's always an underlying risk and then the election a cycle is over they seem to forget about it. >> Yes we do have winners and losers. Going back to 2020, going back 100 years, there were two election cycles where you saw a bad market for stocks afterwards. In those two years were 2000 in 1940. When the allies were struggling against Germany and the tech bust of 2000. Every other election, you build all this. Market struggles. Someone wins. You have certainty, maybe you don't like them or do but the market tends to rally after. It's typically how it plays out. To build a wall of worry and no matter who wins we get back to our lives. >> Yes back to our lives. >> Back to your regular programming if you will. >> Next question. What's your take on valuations right now? Are equity still overpriced? I think heading into the season, we have some guests saying looking at the ratio price, they thought the earnings part had not corrected either. >> I still don't think it's corrected. I think this is more of a 23 story. Not over, good things, I traded as a bond person so everything I try to fit into my narrow view of the world as a bond investor. So, US markets trading,… If you invert that it gets into… Five net percent. That's really attractive when bonds were trading at 1%. But with bonds trading at 3%, as we take 5 1/2, to me that's rich. It's one way of looking at it. If you use forward earnings, 444, I think it's also too relaxed. It needs to be lower. So using fixed income as a guide to your viewers question, I don't think there's a lot of valuations that are terribly supportive right now. And I think you need to see earnings be derated before you can get a little more and valuations. I think it gets into a weaker market in the short term. If I'm wrong and everything is fine next year, were good. Because earnings will hit 440. But that will point to that not be realized in 2023. >> Is not going to become the next earnings season story? In the can down the road because we don't have a single vision in this forecast? >> Late this year or next year would be the timeframe and expect to see that. If in fact, if we are articulating this display. >> Are right. That's all the time we have to take your questions. Any final thoughts on what we've been living through? What were try to make sense of in terms of the Summer rally? What might we see heading into the fall? >> Summer rally, light volumes, poor sentiment. Kind of a Nexus a recipe for explosive rally. I think it's a very important thing to step back not get sucked in. Fall is going to be challenging. Do not buy the pivot story. They will continue to tighten policy until you see real breaks in rent. The twin of that, watch employment. As employment starts to crack, if it cracks, that will be the telltale sign that were coming near the end of this. . Not good for Main Street. But for the markets, we've got a recession, front end rallies. You can look for places to look for equities at better prices. That's typically how I think the playbook should look in the next 12 months. >> Always great to have you. I appreciate it. Thank you so much to Michael Craig Head of Asset Allocation at TD Asset Management. On tomorrow's show, Rob Pemberton. Questions on fixed income. If you have any questions the meantime, just email MoneyTalkLive@td.com. That's all we have time for for the show today. Thanks for watching and will see you tomorrow. [music]
