Market Insights

[music] >>Hello I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing.

Coming up on today's show: MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie will break down the latest Canadian jobs report which smashed expectations.

TD's Francis Fong will give us his view on whether the worst is passed from the Canadian housing market and we will hear from TD Securities Greg Barnes with his outlook the mining sector.

Thus in today's WebBroker education segment, and Hiren Amin will show us how you can find information about money market funds using the platform.

Before we get to all that, let's get you an update on the markets.

Thus last trading day of the week, not a lot of momentum right now.

Our conviction, modestly negative on Bay Street, the TSX Composite Index down 30 points, a little more than 1/10 of a percent.

Seeing an ice boost for American benchmark crude. A barrel of that stuff, benefiting some energy names off the broader market.

Let's check in on Cenovus right now, 20 bucks and $0.86 a share up more than 3%.

Seeing some weakness on tack on both sides of the border including Shopify one of the big names. 63 bucks and change down 5% on the same today.

South of the border, let's check in the S&P 500. A big week from earnings. Jerome Powell, Fireside Chat again early in the week where the weirdest the terminal rate end? How much further do they need to go with all this hot labour market activity?

All these questions swirling around and we have 1/5 of a percent deficit right now.

About eight points in the S&P 500. The tech heavy NASDAQ holding up big is the broader market little bit weaker down almost a full percent.

We are seeing on both sides of the border, that energy name.

Let's check on Exxon.

: an answer market update.

Canada's labour market added hundred and 50000 Jobs in January smashing expectations which had been roughly 10 times lower.

Joining us now to discuss is MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie.

>> Thanks Greg. Huge number.

Also building on the 165,000 jobs we added in the fourth quarter.

This is the strongest report since the oval crime rebound last February.

Again, continuing an upward trend that we are seeing starting in September.

When we look at the unemployment rate, it actually held steady at 5% in January.

But the participation rate actually rose to just about 65%, nearly 60% as well.

I'll break it down for you as well. Let's take a look at some of the other things we saw and noted.

Wages are still relatively strong at Fort percent. Slightly below what we saw in December at 4.7%.

Average hourly earnings for full-time workers was also up.

We break it down by sector, job growth was broadly based with gains across 10/16 industries. All 10 provinces saw gains as well.

And services drove more with 125,000 jobs added led by rebound for retail and wholesale trade.

Other gainers, healthcare education, accommodation and food services also made large contributions.

On the downside, we did see more goods producing sectors… Construction accounting for the bulk of the gains due to some wilder temperatures we've seen in Canada.

Again, this labour market, this report is really hard for Bank of Canada to ignore going forward.

>> That's the thing right?

The BOC did give us a hike but we are on pause now.

We want to see how things unfold. The effect of rate hikes have been having on the economy and this is something that central banks on both sides of the border are wrestling with.

Just a week ago we have this jobs report, 500,000+ jobs from the United States even though they are saying they are starting to see disinflationary pressures taking hold. The BOC taking a pause and we see this job report. What's the thinking there in terms of what the Bank of Canada might make of all this?

>> We mentioned Bank of Canada did see a pause.

But given this report, again, this is very hard for the Bank of Canada to ignore.

We spoke with TD Securities.

They put out a report rather, that said they are, the forecast is for the 4.5% for the Bank of Canada for 2023. But if the data stays resilient into February and March, reality on the ground may force them to abandon their conditional pause.

So we'll have to wait and see.

>> Yesterday afternoon, we do a thing we talk in our editorial luck trends in the market and you and I were laughing about this phrase. It might be the phrase of the year if it comes to pass.

"Immaculate disinflation." In this magic scenario where you get inflation under control but you don't do too much damage to the labour market.

You don't do too much damage to the economy. Can we get there?

Some say it's not impossible but still the base case seems to be to get inflation under control, you need to see some pain.

We are just not seeing it. So I don't know if we can immaculate disinflation and it becomes a thing or goes to the wayside this year.

>> I don't know if we will be using that term.

Wage growth continues to be strong. I mentioned in this report, keeping it 4.5%, down slightly from December but continues to be strong. The BOC needs to get wage and growth under control before they can actually pull back on some of their more aggressive hikes in the Fed as well. So I think that's going to be the focus going forward. Can they get inflation under control?

It continues to be sticky and we will have to wait and see.

>> Immaculate or not. Thanks Anthony.

>> My pleasure.

>> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie.

Stick around later on the show for a preview for corporate events you might want to have your eyes on next week.

Let's stick with the economy. Of course the Bank of Canada did signal that pause and rate hikes but some are concerned the real hardship for the housing market is yet to come.

Of course dealing with higher debt payments now. TD Senior Economist Francis Fong join me earlier to discuss.

>> Where debt service costs are headed, the dramatic increase in interest rates we've seen over the last year or so is really going to drive that ratio significantly higher to a point that we have not seen in quite a few decades. And that obviously has a lot of people giving people cause for concern.

But if we kind of take a flipside approach to it, there is kind of some key ingredients that we do need to see before we can kind of conclude that there might be more systemic decline in home prices.

If we look at home price crashes around the world historically, one of the key ingredients preceding those precious was always a buildup of bad credit.

So, you know, the kind of 2000 zero 2006 home price run ups in the US. Ultimately interest rates or problems arising and that's actually where you saw the problem.

In Canada, we just don't see that major ingredient.

If anything it's actually going the opposite direction.

Credit quality is getting, and maybe this is a bit maddening for people. It is getting better. The most recent data we have is a bit delayed.

So for the second quarter of 2022.

But at the time, we saw the ratio of new mortgage originations that were a beacon score of 600 or lower a what you consider a bad credit.

It wishes .6% of mortgage originations whereas the flipside, the number of new mortgage originations that were a very high credit quality was at a record high 89, close to 90%.

So if you have a kind of buffer of good credit quality borrowers, the ones who are actually driving prices higher and higher and higher, then notionally, even if we are hit with this kind of shock, then there is at least that buffer.

That's not a guarantee that we have that we won't have a systemic problem. If you roll back the clock, five, 10 years, you asked an economist what would drive a systemic problem in the housing market?

We say an increase in unemployment rate.

>> That's what I heard. It's always about jobs.

If you see a spike in unemployment, then we have problems.

>> And a combination with increased interest rates. But that hasn't pent out either. Let's look at Alberta, after 2014, prices crashed and we saw an increase in interest rates to a level that a lot of folks did say that they couldn't necessarily afford and we saw essentially what?

A flatlining in home prices over a long period of time.

Home prices were depressed in that province alone.

Everyone else is doing fine but Alberta kind of single-handedly went through this kind of mini crisis and home prices still didn't fall that much. So where are we today?

We've seen home prices back quite a lot.

But we haven't even unwound that 50% price gain that we saw just since 2020.

So there could potentially still be more downward pressure. But with Bank of Canada having pause at this point, the labour market is still strong and of course credit quality being good, it is difficult necessarily to envision a situation where we have a systemic problem.

> How much of that pause, in your estimation, from the BOC was the very fact that we have this dynamic in the Canadian market?

Big run-up in prices. People to get big loans including mortgages in the bank told us early in the pandemic to go for it.

If you need to borrow a large amount of money for a big purchaser investment, don't worry about it.

Well things turned pretty quick. Is that a chief concern for them now?

>> I would say yes but a lot of it also has to do with timing. As many people would be familiar, it does take about 12 to 18 months for the full impact of interest rate increases to filter in the economy.

We are about one euro from that first interest rate increase.

Inflation has turned, as you are denoted.

Both in the US and Canada.

So now is actually kind of a perfect time for the Bank of Canada to pause and say "we have this vulnerability. Household debt is high as it's ever been.

It's far higher than many of our counterparts and we've seen the sharpest increased and increased interest rates in decades and maybe it's a good time to take pause to see how this will start trickling through and we will sort of readjust from there." In our baseline forecast, we don't necessarily have them hiking anymore in fact, many forecasters we are in anticipating some interest rate decreases down the line but from a positive perspective it's kind of a timing thing too.

> How much is the stress test placed into any theories on behalf of some resilience?

We've seen sales activity fall pretty dramatically. We've seen prices coming down.

But this idea that you won't see for selling. Does that help? I remember the stress test came out of the resume industry placing 2%, are you joking?

In what scenario would you see interest rates jumped 2%?

>> A little bit of a personal anecdote. I was involved in that kind of generation to work and create these scenarios with high interest rate increases.

We did toy with a lot of ideas and potential variations of scenarios that's a higher interest rates.

We kind of forecasters at the time that they would increase this much.

I think this is a lot higher than what was projected even in the stress test. That being said, I think your point, the results of those exercises does give regulators and central banks some comfort the capital buffers are sufficient enough to at least absorb some of the impact.

Again, because we are not protecting necessarily this kind of huge crashed and all sorts of different kinds of assets, those capital buffers will ever be tested to the point where, you know, we are in that deep stress scenario but even if we were, notionally there is at least some hope that regulators will draw from.

>> The Canadian housing market won't… See a more dire consequence because of our elevated immigration levels… Are very robust target's… To people who fall may be in the real estate both side put eggs in that basket or something really happening there?

>> I think there is probably a negative truth to that.

And there's kind of this double whammy impact of the pandemic afterwards.

We still haven't seen 100% of folks returned to office work from home.

It's kind of a standard to work from home across all.

All workplaces in the advanced world. And that has had an interesting dynamic in terms of driving home prices up not just in the age of metropolitan areas which we would have been used to in the previous years prior to the pandemic.

But elsewhere. We've seen higher home price growth outside of metropolitan areas two.

Combine that with continued high immigration numbers and there is some negative truth that there is potentially a floor that gets put under housing because of the consistent demand.

You know what?

I would always point to the notion that housing is a very unique asset in this regard.

It is the only asset.

It acts in the same way as a financial asset that you all so you also consume.

You consume housing services when you live in your own home. It connectors prep capital preservation.

You can rent it out.

But still extremely tight rental market.

And if anything, a lot of folks, we are seeing this in the listings data, can just sit on the asset as a form of capital preservation.

So there's lots of different ways in which housing performs differently than a traditional financial asset in that regard.

>> That was Francis Fong, Senior Economist the TDP. Now let's get you updated in some of the top stories in the world of business and take a look at the markets are trading.

shares of magna International are in the spotlight today after falling short of earnings in its most recent quarter.

Saying it's a difficult year for the auto industry has inflation and geopolitical instability weighed on the business. The forecast not pleasing the street either.

Enbridge is reporting a $1.

1 billion loss for its most recent quarter.

That is the pipeline to books at $2.

5 billion goodwill impairment charge connected with gas transmission business.

Enbridge is standing by its financial guidance for this year.

Docs a modest 2%.

Shares of right healing company LYFT are under pressure today.

The company's revenue forecast for this year are falling short of analyst expectations.

LYFT is citing seasonality and lower prices to try to explain the weakness.

In the meantime their rival Huber on the other hand posted strong results earlier this year.

And heading into the last day of the week, the benchmark nothing too dramatic.

A little shy the fifth of a percent of the downside. The S&P 500, investors trying to take a look at corporate earningsone of the trends we've seen this earnings season as layoffs from big tech firms.

But should not worry investors over the broader markets are headed?

Damian Fernandes, Portfolio Manager at TD Asset Management join me earlier for his take.

The last time I was on the show, the questions they are, are we going to have positive earnings? We are in the thick of Q4 and they are bad.

The market is not collapsing. I'll put some numbers to it. 70% of US companies by market Have reported. The topline is going about 5 1/2%. Think of inflation. But earnings-per-share are down about six.

So you had a massive spread right? 5-6.

That spread is margin degradation.

Across the board. And when I think about it right? We are far enough in earnings season right now that you can probably draw some inferences. The biggest sectors of the US market, whether it be communication services, Google, Facebook, consumer discretionary, Amazon, Tesla, information technology, Microsoft Apple… These bellwether stocks, all of those stocks have registered earnings declines on double-digit digit earnings declines.

Some even much worse. So I think that's what's really… The reason earnings have taken a step down and earnings are negative and they will likely continue for the rest of the year, is because the stocks that were previously helping pull up the earnings number are now facing several headwinds.

>> Okay. Let's talk about some of the announcements we have heard. Intact… Some people say "here comes from the broader economy" but then you get the jobs report and you start wondering how to square the two.

>> Yesterday 5% of the workforce, if memory serves me. A slew of different amounts.

I think of this in two ways. Let's talk about the economy first and less than talk about it in terms of the companies.

In terms of the economy, I totalled up the other day. As a public announcement so far.

They are about 12,000 jobs.

Sorry, 91,000 jobs.

Google was 12. Back in my head.

But 91,000 jobs when last Friday, the jobs report was over 500.

So just to put that in perspective, by the way, these jobs are not immediate. There is severance, there are multiple quarters.

These jobs, you will see over time.

We just had half a million jobs announced on Friday. So I think the economy is structurally broad-based. It's doing fine.

Piercing pockets of weakness. We are not seeing evidence of whether those displacements in the technology sector that you're seeing right now are moving, affecting other sectors. The jobs number on Friday was broad-based.

It was healthcare, it was education.

It was services. We are not seen that yet.

When I think about the companies though, I think this was probably a good thing right?

Because a lot of these technology companies were spending and hiring at will. Because they believe you know, the pandemic really what happened in the pandemic was these tech companies, Amazon… >> I think they bet that it would change our lives and we never go back.

>> Yes they thought it was permanent.

So they obviously overhire and overspend.

They still have very profitable, they are still very profitable companies. In your opening remarks, Microsoft, has been up since earnings.

Earnings were negative.

I think there is information that the company that the investor base is seeing, the actual change the company is making to reduce the cost base to get back to a positive earnings trajectory.

>> Considering what we've been through this earnings season, what should we be thinking as investors about earnings longer-term?

>> So this year, most definitely we are more likely going to have an earnings recession. It's a? If we have an economic recession or a soft landing. Full disclosure, I hate the term soft landing.

Nothing is soft about losing your job or a downtrend in… But likely given the pace and magnitude and rate hikes that have Artie been announced and we probably have one arm to coming down that will weigh on economic activity. Which means growth is going to slow, earning so far negative will continue. But when I think about earnings going forward right?

It's what is the trend rate, not for earnings in 2023 but for the year we are in a rather for 2024.

Our earnings in 2024 will be higher than earnings in 2022.

Let's call this year the transition year.

I think that's where the market right now, the market multiple is elevated.

But it is elevated on this year's earnings. On next year's earnings there is as much positives and negatives on the booking end and right now I don't think we make any strong inferences either way.

>> The market is supposed to be forward-looking right?

>> Exactly.

>> Looking ahead to what it expects from these companies going forward… >> Historically, when you look at the data, and I don't like calendarize a year's.

Because the market doesn't care about December 1 and January 31. But if you look at historical data, in negative earnings years, more likely than not the market is up.

There are a few examples.

A few years without has not held.

It's 2001, 2008, 1990.

All of those years, if memory serves me are pivotal. 2001, collapse and earnings negative markets… 2008, the trauma associated with the financial crisis.

1990, for those with longer memories was the same as the oil crisis. But every time the market is had negative earnings, it's actually been positive.

It might be flat for the year.

I don't think you would hear about negative earnings, the immediate reaction is "oh my God this is a devastating thing " but last year we had positive earnings in negative market. To your point, it's forward-looking.

>> Let's talk a bit. I won't use the term you don't like but if you do get inflation coming back, you don't do too much damage to the economy or the labour market, you get that Goldilocks scenario, what parts of the market would work in an environment like that?

>> We have an adjective for soft.

> Not hard landing.

>> Benign.

We are most interested in to this day the areas of marketplace continue to be, our process is identifying dislocations.

People assume the marketplaces just you know, we talked about Jerome Powell coming up beholden to the whims of Powell and what's happening in China or geopolitical stuff.

Ultimately, the marketplace is a collection of cash flows were we can create values finding companies with those cash flows are misunderstood.

And the fastest areas of cash production of the market continue to be in areas not like tech which is seeing a downshift.

Hopefully this expense cuts will lead to faster higher cash regeneration but in areas like, to a certain degree, oil and gas, financials, and are not hard landing scenario… The terrific the tip of the Spirit is going to be financials. Because if you are not in a hard landing, the Fed does enough to cut rates aggressively.

They still benefit from that interest or margin.

Credit costs are probably a little less bad than forecasted. So revenues will be higher and US banks are already still buying back shares and pay you north of a 3% dividend.

So, that to me is good option analogy.

A good SKU if you don't have them a very traumatic economic outcome.

>> That was Damian Fernandes, Portfolio Manager at TD Asset Management. Now let's get to our educational segment of the day.

If you're interested in fixed incomes… Hiren Amin, Senior Client Education Instructor with TD. Great to have you back with us again.

Please explain what money market funds are.

>> Great to be back again. I want to take a step back and talk about cash for a moment.

When you think of the word or term cash, it refers to cold hard cash in your wallet.

Maybe a thing of the past.

But it refers to money in your savings or checking account. When it comes to the investing world, cash in fact, describes an entire asset class.

But what exactly is cash in the investing world?

The topic for today, cash typically describes funds held in money market.

Money market simply is highly liquid, short-term debt Securities that pay interest. Now because of these attributes, often seen as cash equivalents that can be readily or easily converted back to money or cash on short notice.

When you look at Canadian money market funds, they simply refer to Securities investing primarily high-quality, short-term debt Securities issued by entities such as the government of Canada, a provincial government, you also have Canadian banks or highly rated just commercial paper. Now, use case for money markets for investors will typically be when they want to move in and out of investment stocks or bonds. Or simply a way to part cash if they want to remain on the sidelines.

Now, money markets are characterized by low risk.

And this is due to the fact of the high credit worthiness of the issuers which are typically in this case, going to be governments and banks. But also they are very highly liquid.

In other words, you can easily convert that investment back to cash on short notice.

Due to the nature of the maturities of the Securities which tend to be very short.

Can be as low as 60 days or less. So really, the goal behind money markets in an investor's portfolio is to maximize interest income while looking to preserve capital and maintain liquidity.

The interest payments you will probably see on a money market are going to fear a little bit better than your run-of-the-mill savings vehicles such as a savings account.

In a final note to bear in mind for our investors are these investments are exposed to the same risks as debt investments. So such as changing interest rates keep in mind they are also not see DIC… And they also underperform with asset classes and they don't even keep pace with inflation there.

>> Okay so great landscape there.

If people are now interested in there on the platform, watching this right now, how do they go with searching for money market products here on WebBroker?

>> We will click on our research tab once in WebBroker.

Under the tools column right here. Now we are going to find them under a specific investment type. They will be structured through mutual funds most generally. They can be found under ETF but to keep it broad-based we will search under mutual funds.

Once in that section we will go ahead and create a custom screen. Once you're on here, you will see different options available for you to search with.

We will keep it brought again.

Just choose a funded category.

We will add that in. Within the fund category of different mutual funds, you will notice a bit of them, both US and Canadian. We will look at that for example. Canadian money market. We are going to just exclude ETF's for discussion purposes today and we can look at the matches that we have.

These are going to be a result of all the money market funds available to DI investors to be able to basically park free cash if they have it.

You do want to do a little bit of research at this point to apply more criteria.

Keep in mind these are structured mutual funds so there may be things to consider such as management expense ratios with them. Also, I will click on this tab of purchase info. They do have certain minimums that you do need to initially put up to be able to buy into these money market funds. So you'll be able to observe that information right here.

And depending on what is going to suit your needs, your gonna go ahead and make a purchase from there.

>> Insightful stuff. Great to have you in the mix. I look forward to the next one.

>> Thanks again Greg.

>> Our thanks to Hiren Amin, Senior Client Education Instructor TD Direct Investing.

Make sure to check out the WebBroker with more live master classes and upcoming webinars.

Concerns about slowing growth in demand or raising questions about what the future path in many parts of the market including the mining space.

Amid that backdrop, TD Securities just wrapped up their latest mining conference.

Greg Barnes, Managing Director at TD Securities join me to share his outlook and why there may be a bullish case for copper.

>> We are watching China reopening the various pieces of unrest across South America. People are considered with supply of copper.

Inventories remain very low. We look forward a couple of years after the first wave of copper supply that we are seeing right now, enters the market from a bunch of mining reductions, there is not much beyond that.

I think people are concerned of how we will meet all this demand for copper for decarbonization of the grade when we are just not producing enough copper.

The expectation is that copper prices continue to move higher.

Not the straight line like we've seen in the past week or so but generally the trend click looks like it's gonna be up.

>>we know this is a long-standing story.

This whole TV story didn't show up overnight and yet we are worried about minds producing enough of the future.

Why is the will not there to mind more copper if we truly believe in this longer-term?

>> It's all about incentive pricing.

As a mining company you need to justify building that mine. Where the new mines are going to be.

They are increasingly difficult spots in the world. Higher elevation. No infrastructure, no water.

You just need a higher price.

Companies willing to take the risk to invest in these big mines and they require Memberslooking for a 50% return after tax, you can't justify that.

So that's a big adjustment that the industry is getting used to. As we speak right now.

>> So that's been interesting in the past several weeks. Gold as well, I guess it's the dance with the US buck. Gold itself, what's happening there?

>> We got a more constructive turn on gold.

With the Fed pivot coming,interest rates was only a court of point the last time at some point the next year or so they will start cutting rates.

With the US dollar, that translates to a weaker US dollar and that's bullish for gold. The question is, do rates stay higher for longer and inflation comes down and then you have real rates rising?

That's not necessarily good for gold.

If you look at Fed rate cuts over history, gold does tend to outperform. During a rate cutting.

, Gold tends to rise by about 34%.

When they are raising rates, gold only goes up by about 6% of the risk reward is actually pretty good if we are entering a rate cutting. From the Fed.

>> We talk about a more constructive tone of the market towards gold for those reasons but we also are pretty big deal in our hands now a day on Newmont?

I think it was nearly 17 billion for new crest. What does that kind of activity in the space tell you what the market feeling about gold?

We've been watching consolidation happened over the past decade. And there is anticipation there will be more consolidation occurring as we've seen today.

And I think part of this is just getting bigger.

And gold mining companies aren't that big on a relative scale versus other sectors in the market. And to try and get big investor attention, they need to be bigger and I think that's part of the rationale behind Nuance conditional bid so far for new crest.

>> Okay, let's talk about inflation.

Obviously, so many parts of the market, so many parts of society have felt all the pressures of inflation.

What about those pressures in the mining business?

>> Yeah it's been tough over the past year. We have an escape them. We've seen operating costs go up by 12% over a year-to-year basis. Capital costs have gone up more than 20% to 30% in some cases. It's all typical things that are feeding into it. Higher energy prices, higher steel prices.

Labour costs have gone up a lot they have started to moderate, perhaps perhaps except labour so we don't expect the same level of cost increases over the year 2023. 0 to 5% seems to be what companies are guiding towards. So lower energy prices, partly offset, by heart higher labour costs. The less cost inflation in 2023 but still not great on the cost side.

>> When I think about the minors, depending on whether mining, but say for example gold.

Obviously if an ounce of gold sells more on the market then you're in a good position. Our mining companies still in a good position relative?

Yeah. Gold prices are 1800,$1900 an ounce.

They're still making a pretty good margin at these prices. Still a good set up for the gold set space at these prices.

>>… Another interesting part of the conference's uranium. Seems there was an interesting tone.

>> Absolutely and I think people are looking at where the world needs to go to reduce carbon emissions.

Obviously the next generation is a big part of that. Electricity generations are a big part of that. An effectively nuclear generation capacity… I think you are recognizing that you can't support a countrywide grid on solar or wind.

It's just not stable enough.

I think it's been brought home particularly in Europe about the security of supply where they relied on Russian natural gas and that's not doable any more clearly. So nuclear is probably going to play a much larger role in both cases.

Lower carbon emissions and security of supply going forward in our view.

>> How is Canada positioning against other uranium producers?

We have a pretty rich vein of the stuff here.

>> We've got one of the biggest producers of uranium, Cameco.

They've got high-grade minds, in northern Saskatchewan low cost, 20% of the market generally is what Canada can produce.

The security of supply argument works very much in her favour so we are an extremely well positioned on uranium.

>> So we've got some bullish and some spaces, constructive and other spaces depending on what were talking about in the mining space. What's the biggest risk to the sector this year in a short-term or medium-term?

>> Really it's the Chinese reopening in global growth as a whole. I think a soft landing is increasingly being talked about. If that's the case, that will bode well globally. The Chinese reopening has really got metal prices off to a strong start and I think one of the factors the gunmetal price off to a strong start so far in 2023.

… We are seeing a bit in some well names.

Some markers holding us back. Let's check out magna International with their latest results.

Some of the projections going forward are disappointing the street.

Pretty substantial setback for the name.

7364 down 15% of the auto parts maker.

Kinross Gold, some weakness in the minors earlier indeed, five bucks and $0.57.

Kinross pulling back almost 3%.

The S&P 500, south of the border, still working her way through earnings season.

Try to reduce inflation and what the central banks may have to do going forward.

Kind of weak it's been. Down modestly but of 1/4% and nine points. The tech heavy NASDAQ being hit a little harder today.

Down 1 1/3%. Accelerating to the downside since we first checked in at the beginning of the show.

As we said, some of the energy names both sides of the border getting hit with WTI today including Chevron with 172 bucks and change it up a little more than 2%.

Just not enough of what were seeing on both sides of the border to bring that topline number to positive territory.

Before we say goodbye for the week will bring back Anthony Okolie again for some of the big economic and corporate events we have scheduled for next weekend.

>> Thanks very much Greg.

With interest rates and inflation and focus for many investors, they're going to be closely watching next week's US CPI for January.

That is coming down on Tuesday, February 14. TD Securities believes that core prices like these states drawing in January with the index rising .4% month over month. That would match Decembers upward revision.

TD Securities also expects goods deflation to end.

Now, shelter inflation they say will likely remain the key wildcard.

While rebounding gasoline prices will be the main driver of non-core CPI prices. TD Securities of course, month over month is calling for headline inflation of .4% at .4%. That implies a year-over-year increase of 6.2%.

Total prices of 5.5% core : of course on Wednesday for every 50, Wall Street has the latest on retail sales for January and TD Securities is looking for a strong rebound in to sales after December's sharp decline.

Sharp contraction.

With the surgeon auto sales contravening to gains after the clients past in the past couple of months of December at the thought of course you've seen some automakers like Tesla followed by Ford cutting some of the prices in order to kind of boost demand for similar products.

And we are also seeing demand stabilizing.

Inventories improving a supply chain concerns are slowly easing and of course, these prices come down as well.

So certainly TD Securities is looking for a strong rebound in retail sales driven by auto sales. On the earnings front, right now, we're about past the midpoint of earnings season.

We've got a couple of big earnings coming up next week.

From some consumer stable names like Coca-Cola out on Tuesday.

Nestlé, other big companies reporting next week, we have Cisco Systems, the piping trails and Deere & Company.

I think as the economy slows you wonder how these the cup have these companies will fare and how they will go forward? I think that something that shareholders will be paying close attention to.

>> In normal times, the forward-looking state from the company can definitely move the name more than 1/4 behind them but in these times, you really want to hear from corporate leaders. In this country, south of the border, do they think their skin of your recession?

What are they need to do for softening economy?

Then you add as investors, that inflation print of the retail sales, those are key economic indicators coming out of that strong jobs or porches try to figure out where this economy is headed and what the Fed might have to do about it.

>> Exactly. And I think the Fed, their policies and weighing on investors at some points the Fed will be distracted away from corporate results.

So I think certainly, try to understand what the Fed is due to be doing, where interest rates will be going… These reports coming out next week will always give some indication of where the economy is where inflation is and hopefully provide some direction as to where interest rates will eventually land.

>> Another big week for investors. Thanks for the update on that Anthony.

> My pleasure.

>> You want to stay tuned on Monday, Michael Craig head of TD asset-allocation will be here. Take your questions about asset allocation.

You can get a head start sending us your questions email moneytalklive@td.

com.

Thanks for your time from Anthony and I have a great weekend.

We'll see you next week.

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