Leslie Preston

[music] Hello I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk Live brought to you by TD Direct Investing. Every day I'm joined by guests from across TD. We take you through its moving the markets and answer questions about the economy. Were going to delve into the Bank of Canada raising rates by another 75 basis points with TD Senior Economist to let in. She'll also be taking your questions on the economy overall so get them in now. And it's on days like today that you may be looking for economic commentary. Well Client Education Instructor Jason Hnatyk is going to show you how to find that commentary on the TD WebBroker platform. A reminder that you can get in touch with us by emailing us at this email: moneytalklive@td.com or Phil at that viewer response box under the video player here on WebBroker. Well before we get to all that let's get to the looking at how the markets are going. We are seeing a substantial pullback in the price of crude. West Texas, north of 4%, let's start with energy names at the weak point. Holding us back from a better showing of the TSX. Crescent point among them. Energy majors. Right now we have Crescent point down to the tune of almost 5%. $9.77 a share. Noticing though, miners and material stocks making some gains. BT goals, the ticker on Bay Street up more than 7%. Seeing some strength across a number of sectors and energy. Understandably with that price of crude moving so dramatically. South of the border, the S&P 500, we've had some pretty tough sessions since Jerome Powell had some stern words for us as investors in Jackson Hole back in August. Making some gains in almost 35 points on the shy of a full percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ, let's check in and see what's happening there. Some momentum for the tech names. We can call it a percent to the upside for the NASDAQ. Although the energy names on Wall Street are still exerting some downward pressure overall, Occidental Petroleum at 65, 61. Almost down 2%. And that to market update. Bank of Canada has delivered another supersized high rate raising its overnight benchmark by 75 basis points. The question is where do we go from here? Let's take a look at what it all means with senior economist at TD, Leslie Preston. I know TD economics has a new call out of 75 basis points. Are there more to come? >> We do think there are more to come. It was a pretty hawkish message overall from Bank of Canada today and we do expect the bank to take the overnight rate to 4% by the end of the year. >> 4% by the end of this year. So 75 basis points to go. After that, what kind of situation will the bank be in? Getting to the 4% rate, that's pretty dramatic considering where we started this year and where the call is at the end of this year. What happens in 2023? >> We think the Bank of Canada will take a long pause as it really assesses how the Canadian economy is digesting these higher costs. Central banks have been burned in the past by giving up the fight of inflation too quickly. Some people in markets think there can be cuts next year. We think barring a recession, the bank will be in for a long period of holding rates steady. >> Not going to blink even though, as we've heard, there might be some pain for us as Canadians. I want to go through that statement. You talked about hawkish… Let's break down some of the areas. Recognizing how it came to inflation, the main message there trying to fight, we have seen inflation ease in July. There is a caveat though, however they start talking about some of the underlying components and how does that play out? As we go to the surface, we know there's some stickiness. >> Exactly. Bank of Canada tracks three core measures. We saw those 3 Measures Actually Increase in July. So it's great that the headline is coming down to lower energy prices. Even since the July report. We've all been seeing lower prices at the pump. But those underlying inflation metrics that the bank watches are around 5%. Just about 5% year on year. A lot higher than they want them to be. Also moving in the wrong direction. The bank called that out in their statement. Particularly pointing to services inflation. Canada's economy grew very strongly in the first half of the year. It's not surprising that services inflation has picked up. >> I think TD economics this we had a pretty interesting piece on the fact that "okay, you get inflation and you want to strip out the volatile in this, energy fuel… Because that's a big portion of my income going to energy." But this idea that one set inflation starts to go on the services side, that is a stickier place. Hard to bring down. >> Exactly. Services inflation is proof of her history to be much more persistent. So as we see higher inflation and services more, that is what can be tougher to bring down. >> Expectations as well. We know central banks worry about this. In a statement they did talk about that. Adjusting that short-term inflation expectations that remain high. Is that something the bank really needs to crush in its communications. To get us comfortable as Canadians. So they can get it under control at some point. >> Exactly. Expectations for inflation are key to the Bank of Canada's mandate. They need to keep inflation expectations anchored in that one to 3% range. So when they see that short-term inflation expectations were remaining higher than they would like, it's exactly as you say. They need to add decisively and strongly with that 75 basis point hike to try to bring those inflation expectations back to where they would like them to be. >> So they address inflation in the statement. They said, yes the inflation came down but the important caveat, as we discussed, the Canadian economy. It grew at a pace not as robust I guess as what the Bank of Canada had been penciling in. Yet again a caveat. However, the Bank of Canada said there's other things to look too. >> As he pointed out, the domestic demand was buried strong in consumer demand was very strong. Canadians without covert restrictions, by large and more, are outspending again. Those parts of the GDP report are pretty strong. >> Of course, the headline, the direction it's going to go in with TD economics at the end of the year, that captures all the headlines. People understand that it flows directly to their household budgets. Particularly they talk about quantitative tightening as well. And the jobs that that is helping to do to eventually try to cool the economy. Is there much going on? How much is that actually contribute and be on the rate hikes that we've seen? >> The impact of quantitative tightening works with mid to long term bond yields. Restraints from the world economy and the bank reiterated that it is with the quantitative tightening ongoing. When we say 4% of the policy rate, the effect is actually slightly larger than that given the impact of quantitative tightening. >> When it comes to that kind of pain, whether it's ours or whether it's Jerome Powell's, we know that in trying to wrestle inflation back to a 2% Target, there will be pain for households and pain for the economy. What kind of pain should we be bracing for us Canadians question mark >> Well, we think the growth in the second half of the year is good to be around 1% annual in real terms. That's pretty slow growth for the Canadian economy. Just by contrast from the first half of the year which was about 3%. So we are calling for a pretty significant slowdown in growth and likely a rise in the unemployment rate. Again, putting that in perspective, Canada's unemployment rate at 4.9% in July. That's more than a 50 year low. Basically the job market in Canada has never been stronger. But as growth slows below what we would view as the economies trend growth rate or potential growth rate, we do think that there will be a rise in the employment rate. >> Coming out of the financial crisis, we became accustomed as investors, households and Canadians at the central banks will rise. The markets themselves could even have a bit of tension. As we see that the central banks would ride to the rescue. It's just a different game that we've had? We've had the tough talk from our central bank, from south of the border. I think there's probably still people out there who think of inflation. If we do and up with economic pain and households are feeling it? Do think it's serious this time? >> I think they are. To my point about the unemployment rate, ride to the rescue, I don't think an economy with a 4.9% unemployment rate needs to be rescued. I think that's what the Bank of Canada has quickly been adjusting with monetary policy to the strength of the Canadian economy. You have inflation at a 40 are high, unemployment at a 50 year low… I think you could see a degree of worsening in unemployment before the bank is that worried about the unemployment rate. Just to give a bit more perspective on that, prior to the pandemic, the employment rate was around 5.9%. We were calling that very low. I think it's just important to sort of paint the backdrop as a very strong one for the Canadian consumer. Dealing with much higher inflation rates and higher wage rates. So we do think that, you know, when you say the bank writing to the rescue, I don't think that would be needed unless they end up finding a recession, triggering a recession. >> Fascinating Stephanie great start to the program. We will get back to your questions with TD Senior Economist Leslie Preston. A reminder of course that you can get in touch with us any time by emailing MoneyTalkLive@td.com or Phil at the viewer response box here in WebBroker. Right now let's get you update on some of the top stories in the world of business. The CEO of Alphabet says he wants to make the company more efficient and speed up the decision-making process at the tech giant. Speaking at the conference in Los Angeles, Sundar Puh-Chai says it's an uncertain time for the economy and that could impact ad spending and consumer demand. The company has been growing its headcount in recent years and a recent worker survey suggested a growing bureaucracy at Alphabet was slowing things down. Puh-Chai says he wants to make the parent company of Google 20% more efficient and did not rule out job cuts to get to that point. Signs today of a slowdown in exports from the world's second-largest economy. New numbers out of China show exports rose 7.1% last month in China. Far below expectations and a marked slowdown from the 18% rise in July. China's goods producers have been grappling with a number of challenges including covert lockdowns and heat waves. It appears we are domestic China demand is hitting imports as well. With shipments coming in well below estimates in August. Oil continues to feel the push and pull of global slowdown fears and supply concerns. American benchmark crude prices have been whipsawed today on some big headlines. First was Russia threatening to withhold energy products in price caps are imposed on the world's countries exports. Oil prices stabilized on that threat with those further signs of a slowdown in China began weighing on the trades as investors will concern about demand in the face of global economic slowdown. And south of the border, the S&P 500 after a long run of some pretty harsh down days. Up about 30 points. A little more than three quarters of a percent. We are back now with TD Senior Economist Leslie Preston take your questions about the economy. Let's get to the first one on the board here. What is your outlook on the housing market? Toronto showed some stability recently but other more declines to come? >> I think it would be mature for Toronto to call for a bottoming in the housing market. We do think there is likely further recalibration on the way. We are looking for around as 16% peak decline in average home price in Toronto. That's actually less than a national average. Toronto, actually, is pushing somewhat by its condo market. Due to their relative affordability of condos, given the prices of single-family homes being out of reach for so many in Toronto. That condo prices are expected to hold up a little better which leads to Toronto's average price actually expected to hold up a little better through this recalibration of higher rates going on. >> Toronto is of course the country's largest real estate marketing gets a lot of attention. One of the rest of the country? So many different markets. Is it pretty tough to try to call what's going to happen overall given the circumstances customer >> Certainly. All real estate conditions are always local. But at the same time, all real estate markets are dealing with the same run-up in mortgage rates that we've seen over the past year. And that's really how we are characterizing our forecast for homes prices. You know, even relative to pre-pandemic, depending on the measure, the five year conventional mortgage rate is at the highest level now since 2008. So prices need to adjust. That stretches with the average home buyer can afford and we are seeing that recalibration and prices. We think a lot of it has occurred already. We are probably a little bit more than halfway there on prices. We are actually getting close to how far we think sales are going to fall. So a bit more of an adjustment there. Of course, varying across the country as you say, we think BC and Ontario are likely to see some of the biggest declines in house prices. Largely because they saw the biggest run ups during the pandemic with this sort of race for space and people taking advantage of rock-bottom interest rates to, you know, by bigger homes. So we are likely to see the largest declines there. But also worth pointing out, we don't expect house prices to drop below the pre-pandemic levels. Which is just a testament to how far prices rose in the early days of the pandemic. > Of course, the Bank of Canada keeps an eye on the housing market is well and rate hikes from them. Borrowing costs higher, they seem fine with it though. They say the housing market is going back is anticipated. They called that growth during the pandemic unsustainable. I think there were him some conversations heading into this rate hike. The Bank of Canada would not want to see the housing market pullback to aggressively but they seem to be saying "you know what? Is doing what it needs to do." >> I mean the housing market feeds into inflation. They are trying to bring inflation down so they need, that is one source of inflation that they need to tamp down. They don't like to come down and say it but they are acknowledging that the housing market is going is anticipated. >> Interesting stuff. Let's get to the next question here: this one is about the central banks and what they might trigger with rate hikes. If we go into a recession, how will Canada fare versus other economies? >> I think the knee-jerk response, the intuitive response would often be that people with think Canada would do a little bit worse. Because of the high degree of Canada's household sector. We actually think there's a few reasons to believe that Canada would be a bit better off. Canada has been more resilient than the US economy in the past two recessions. Past performance is not always indicative of future returns. High commodity prices, I think, will insulate Canada, should US economy dip into recession. In the event of a US recession, we see the weakness in commodity prices that we think, given the Russia war in Ukraine, commodity prices will not fall as far as the otherwise would. So that's an income boost to many Canadian companies and Canadian governments. There's a number of reasons. Another is Canadian governments. Fiscal position. Governments seem to be in the mood to spend which is a differentiating factor versus Washington where belt-tightening seems to be more on the table there. So the Canadian government is simulating the economy more than in the US. I think my last point, excess savings. Canadian consumers have not really started to dip into the pandemic excess savings they built up through the pandemic. Unlike their American counterparts who have started to really deplete the cushion of excess savings that they built up. So in the event of a downturn, cushion to households, from having to spend as much as the they otherwise would. So all those reasons, to say we actually think that there would be an argument that Canada's recession would be more shallow than the US is. >> Fascinating stuff as always. Always make sure you do your own research before making investment decisions. We will get back your questions for Leslie Preston in just a moment's time. A reminder that you can get in touch with us at any time by emailing MoneyTalkLive@td.com. Now it's time for education segment of the day. On days like these when you have a massive rate hike and forecast for upcoming hikes, you may want to look at some economic commentary to help you in your research. Jason Nat a Client Education Instructor at TD Direct Investing is here to show us just how to do that. Welcome Jason Hnatyk. >> Everyone is talking about the rate hike for today. That's of the markets and waiting for. Let's take a look at some of the tools that WebBroker has to keep you really informed. While the first thing that we want to take a look at is kind of a calendar of events they can stay informed of really what to expect as well as what to expect from those announcements that are coming. We will go to "research". Select the options for markets and that will bring us to our events section here. On the right-hand side will be able to choose our economic events. We will have the opportunity, either to look at past events so we can see what recent events are affecting the market as well as we can see future dates and make sure that we are planned and prepared for what might be coming down the pipe. The news that is on everyone's lips here is the Bank of Canada announcing, if you are preparing for the event, we can see where the time is being released. As well we also do get the opportunity to check and see ahead of time what the consensus from the analysts were as well as to make sure with the actual results were on the actual announcement from the Bank of Canada to check and see if there's any positive or negative surprises. Now, there is some access to information that, through WebBroker, coming from our friends at TD economics, I want to make sure I can highlight so everyone can know where to go and find… That can be located by choosing "research" from the top of the page. Once again. This time under the "markets":, we are going to choose "reports". On this page we have lots of access to information from independent third-party research what we will be focusing on TD economics for the commentary and insight analysis for today as we scroll down about half the way the right hand side. We noticed there is a TD economics tab. Go ahead and select that. From this particular page, once we dive in and see the information, the commentary section will be on the right-hand side. We know this report from the Bank of Canada came out around 10 AM. Within the hour, this report from TD economics was up and available forever but his analysis. You are getting the sense of what information when into the decision to make this rate hike as well as some of the key implications of how these changes of interest rates are going to impact the economy and investors as a whole. So lots of great information to use. >> Great to know where to go on the platform to find the information and the analysis and reports that you want. What you want on WebBroker if you want them to structure and tell you what important news is happening? >> Excellent point Greg it's all about working smarter not harder. WebBroker has a great tool that's available to all investors. We have the opportunity, many people are taking advantage of this from particular stock perspectives. What WebBroker also does give you is the availability to create alerts so you are notified of major economic events in the economy. So let's show you quickly had to do that. We will go and start by choosing once again "research" at the top of the page. At this time under the "tools" section, you can see alerts. We are on the stock alerts section we will go ahead and move us over to our news and markets and research alerts. From here, we can go ahead and set new alerts by choosing the "set news and research alerts" once again, this is where we get to be specific about the events that we want to be notified by WebBroker. If you're looking to find out about economic news, because that's were focus on here today, under this category, we can see that there is a very broad economics indicator alert section. Then from here, you're ready to go. It's a simple as that. A few clicks later, we can go ahead and save it and then right into your email inbox, you will be notified when major events are happening. So you certainly don't want to be not connected from the market but it's one of those things were if you are out and about, you know that WebBroker has your back with keeping you informed with key details as they happen. >> Great stuff as always Jason. Thanks for joining us. >> My pleasure. >> Jason Hnatyk, Senior Client Education Instructor with TD Direct Investing. Now before we get back to your questions, a reminder that you can send us your questions any time by sending us an e-mail at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question boxright here in WebBroker. >> Let's get back to your questions with TD Senior Economist Leslie Preston. This sort of feeds into it… What you make of the Canadian job market right now? Is it as strong as it was when we came out of the worst of the pandemic? >> It's much stronger right now for sure. We have wages rising over 5% year on year. Reflecting a very tight labour market. The unemployment rate of 4.9% is at a 50 year low. The share of the working age population, economists often focus on, between the age of 25 to 54, that core working age, is at a record high. So anecdotal reports of employers struggling to find workers, I'm sure many people have asked have experienced this in their own lives where capacities at restaurants are cut back because they can't find workers to staff… Definitely much stronger than it was immediately coming out of the pandemic. >> We are getting a sense, as you said, employers struggling to find workers. Where did the workers go? From before the pandemic to saying "I can't find anyone to fill the job." What happened? >> To a certain extent, demanded stronger. Canadians have been released from their confinement during the pandemic and want to get out and spend. But you're right. A lot of workers actually, in Canada, we often hear about the great resignation in the media. It's really been more of the great retirement. Over the past year in Canada, you've seen three and a thousand people in the 55+ age bracket retire. Move out of the labour force. So, you know, that is one challenge that aging, which was kind of always good to be there, we are really seeing in earnest now. >> I won't say how close I am to 55 but I don't see myself retiring at 55. So kudos to them. Another question off the platform. What is your outlook for the Canadian dollar? >> The Canadian dollar has been underperforming. In our forecast, we've been a bit disappointed. Canada's economic performance, we thought would lead to more resilient dollar through the end of the year. As you mentioned earlier, oil prices are off, the Canadian dollar has been underperforming. Probably likely to see over the next year or so kind of in the mid-70s range. We have had more of a 79 Target next year for it. I think we are in our upcoming forecast likely to shave that back a little bit. >> A number of crosses we can look at. Because the Americans are our largest trading partner, US dollar… Just around that the US dollar is had this year. I keep thinking back to the commentary. How much further can the US dollar run? Turns out it had a lot further to run. Is that in the end, going to be the be dynamic to strengthen the US dollar? >> That is testament really to the Canadian dollar holding up really well relatively to other currencies. Particularly Europe, giving the challenge Europe is been facing over the past six months. But certainly the US dollar dynamic is always a key factor for Canada. Along with our differentiating factors being commodity prices and also interest rate differentials with the US which, so far, the Bank of Canada and the Fed seem to be in agreement to moving along in a relative lockstep with each other in terms of raising rates. >> All right. Let's get to another question. This one about the Americans as well. What about the economic risks of the US midterm elections question my >> We don't see a lot of economic risk from the US midterm elections. You know, the US politics, they always seem to have a lot of fireworks lately. Now it's important to remember that right now, even though the Democrats have a majority in the Senate, it's a razor thin majority. We've already seen that Biden has been able to get some of his key policy plans past but at a very small level because it is not that large majority in the Senate. So Congress is likely to continue to be divided or, you know, we are likely to see continued gridlock after the midterms, which fiscal policy will be as steady as she goes. If the Republicans have a bit more power, unlikely to see a more big spending measures, likely to see continued progress on the deficit. So, you know, we are kind of already coming from a reasonably gridlock situation so we don't expect any economic risk. I'm not a political scientist. But if there is any volatility in political transitions, of course, markets will likely react unfavourably to that. But from an economic growth perspective, we don't anticipate a big shift. > Back your questions for Leslie Preston on the economy in just a moment. A reminder to always do your own research when making investment decisions and you can get in touch with us any time by emailing us at this email: MoneyTalkLive@td.com. You can also use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit "send". We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer you need right here at MoneyTalk Live. The Bank of Canada is not the only central bank to aggressively raise rates in the face of record high inflation. Joining us now is Anthony Okolie. >> The reserve Bank of Australia also hiked its rate by 50 year basis points to a seven-year high. Saying there is more to come. Back in June of course, the Swiss National Bank surprised market with the 50 point race as bait height, its first since September 2007. After raising rates for the first time in over a decade, at their last meeting, the European Central Bank, ECB, set to deliver another rate hike on Thursday. The only question is will it be 50 or 75? Leaning towards 50 basis points. But of course the Bank of England, also raising its main rate by 50 basis points, pushing costs to the highest level since 2009. That was the sixth consecutive rate by the Bank of England. From August 2022 meeting. Driving of course is inflation hitting 10% in July. I brought along a chart. It highlights how it has continued to broaden in the UK. The orange line shows that around 65% of the CPI basket is growing by more than 5% year-over-year. Of course, TD Securities also expects the Bank of England to hike by 50 basis points. Both in September and November meetings. Another 25 Basis Points in December before pausing as it tries to bring in inflation. >> If you're a central banker raising rates and trying to tamp down inflation, that's pretty big. A nice membership there. What central banks are actually going against that trend? >> China being one of them of course. The Bank of China just lowered its lending rate in August for the second time. As the country continues to face ongoing challenges from the COVID-19 shutdowns in that country. Another country that is defied the global rate hike has been Japan. The Bank of Japan has kept its rates at rock-bottom rates. One of the things as the Bank of Japan believes that its easy monetary policy as well as a weaker yen could help boost its economic recovery according to TD Securities. >> Thanks Anthony. >> My pleasure. >> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie. And now we look at the TSX Composite Index, calling it a little shy the court of a percent. Some of the action that we've seen in recent days, will take it. Although a caveat here, the downdraft and global crude prices. Significant pressure. Last time I checked about 4% of the downside indeed. West Texas intermediate, just north of 83 bucks a barrel. At this hour. Below actually. Down almost 5% in the session. It's being felt in names like bay text clearly. Down 7 1/2%. We are seeing money when we went to other sectors though. Energy is the big weight. Including the miners. South of the border, we have some upside momentum it's actually holding. From a choppy session that it was yesterday. The S&P 500 right now three quarters of a percent. 29 points, 3947. Tech heavy NASDAQ, hanging in a little bit firmer. We will call that almost a full percent. 87 basis points. Twitter, making gains indeed at $40.72 a share. The social media microblog or… We now know what that means. It's Twitter. 5.4%. We are back now with Leslie Preston taking your questions about the economy. Let's get to them. What is your view on the US housing market? Any risks for the broader economy? >> Like Canada, the US economy's housing market has been undergoing a recalibration to higher rates since the beginning of the year. Home sales there are also down about 26%. So far from their peak earlier this year to now. In terms of risk, it's a reality. Drag on the US economy, residential investment was down deep in the double digits in the second quarter in the US which, some distracted Stan chili from the US, we don't expect that to reverse any time soon. So the slowing housing market is a real economic drag in the US. >> Of course, a great financial crisis, very tough time for US housing. We didn't get hit in this country anywhere close that the Americans did. In a certain sense, did they get out some of the pain a decade before we did? >> Yes. We haven't seen Americans load up on debt as much since the global financial crisis. It's a real positive in terms of US household financial wherewithal balance sheets. A great position, I think given what happened in the last cycle, Americans have been quite cautious in terms of loading up on household debt. That's not to say that we didn't see a big run in house prices there also early in the pandemic when mortgage rates fell so low and now we are seeing that recalibrate as well. >> Nice segue into our next question: Will the Canadian consumer finally buckle under heavy debt levels? We carry a lot of debt in this country would for a while it was pretty cheap. >> And Canadians responded by loading up on debt. We don't think the Canadian consumer is going to buckle. We think they're going to bend. That's a big part of why we expect Canadian growth to slow in the second half of the year. Consumers are contending with higher bills at the grocery store. A lot more money to fill up their tanks relative to a year ago. Wages simply are keeping pace. So we do expect high debt to show up in lower rates of consumer spending growth. At the margins for Canadians who really took on a high degree of leverage, we are seeing some rise in consumer… That's not to say at the margin that isn't there. We would expect those. But coming off a very low level, due to all the pandemic income support government has provided, insolvency fell to a historic low during the pandemic. We are seeing an uptick but not a level that is concerning at all yet. We expect as these higher rates work their way through the system that we would see some rise in pain at the margin for something a little more stretched. >> An interesting question just coming off the platform but I think I can take this one on the fly. Commodity prices… Probably listening to my market update on West Texas with benchmark crude that about the viewer says commodity prices are plummeting. When does not show up in inflation? >> It already has is the answer there. We did see headline inflation fall in July. It had been about 8.1%. I think I have that rate in June, falling to 7.6% in July. So we do expect energy prices to be a key wait on headline inflation over the coming months, through the year. However that core inflation, as I mentioned earlier, is proving a little bit more stubborn than we expected. So we don't expect inflation to stay the 8%. That it was in June coming down. But still well above 1 to 3% range that the Bank of Canada would like to see. > Yes we talked earlier about the fact that once inflation starts to move to the service space, someone that is wage right? I've enjoyed as a motorist my time to fill up that it's a much better price for a leader in gas and then it was several weeks ago. Once you get the raise, as a worker, it sticks with you for a while. >> Certainly. And we are seeing wages increased and that is helping with purchasing power but with inflation, there's not really a lot of purchasing gains in real terms there. So it really does stretch budgets. >> Alright we have time for one more question. A final thought almost. What indicators do you want to get a real look at the Canadian economy? We talked a lot about jobs and inflation but what else can you be looking at? >> We look a lot of the high-frequency data on consumer spending. Canadian consumers, as I mentioned, a key factor in healthy growth that we saw in the second quarter of this year. Canadians starting to go to restaurants more, travel, more entertainment. So as all of these headwinds start to blow on the consumer higher rates, higher prices, we will be watching to see that sort of high-frequency spending data how frequently consumers are ratcheting back on spending. We have not seen it yet but we do think it's coming. So that's really what were watching. >> Great to have you here Leslie. Particularly on a day like this. Thank you so much. > My pleasure. >> Leslie Preston Senior Economist at TD Bank. Coming out tomorrow we will be speaking to Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist at TD Wealth. You can get a head start by emailing us, MoneyTalkLive@td.com. That's all the time we have for today thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow. [music] [music]