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[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing.
Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here.
We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing.
Coming up on today's show, that means looking at gold. The price of the precious metal continues to be red-hot. We will look at how high you could go or some potential headwinds to this rally. Daniel Ghali of TD Securities joins us. Markets editor Anthony Okolie will tell us why small business owners in the US are feeling far less optimistic than they used to. A bit of a hand, it might have something to do with inflation.
Bryan Rogers going to tell us everything we need to know about creating a heat map and Advanced Dashboard.
Here's how you can get in touch with us.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Before we get to the guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets. We will start you at home on the TSX Composite Index.
113 points in the whole, down about half a percent.
Seeing the gold price hold up but the rally in oil pulling back a little bit after making substantial gains in recent session.
What is it made for the trade underneath the surface? Among the most actively traded names at this time is Athabasca Oil, down 4.5%.
Also Air Canada, at $19.08, it's pulling back 1.5%. South of the border, the Americans continue to parse out every single inflation print.
Yesterday was headline CPI and today was wholesale prices, rising less than expected month over month but the annual rate year-over-year… You got 6.5 points to the upside after yesterday's selling pressure.
The NASDAQ is up almost half a percent.
CarMax, a used car dealer, we'll talk more about them later, but the forecast… CarMax is on a little more than 12%. And that is your market update.
It may have been dampened briefly by Wednesdays hotter than expected US inflation data but the price of gold continues to hit new milestones. It is more upside likely or has rally run its course? You to give us his take, Daniel Ghali of TD Securities. Great to have you back.
>> Thanks for having me.
>> We are talking about asset classes in the spotlight so far this year, gold is definitely one. What has been happening?
>> This is probably one of the most exciting times in precious metals for a number of reasons.
We spoke earlier this year about the fact that macro traders started the year with historic dislocations. They were historically under positioned ahead of a fed cutting cycle.
That's what propelled gold to reaching all-time highs but at the same time, in our view, that buying activity ran out of steam by the time the price reach $2200 per ounce.
Right now, there is a mysterious buyer, which we think is associated with currency intervention in China.
>> One thing we talked about over the last 1.5 years or so a central bank buying and's idea that there was some concern about currency markets that people were getting back into gold, citing mysterious buyer, let's dig deeper into this idea.
You think the fundamentals played themselves out but the buying continues.
>> What's curious about buying activity so far this year is that Fed cuts are being priced out but gold prices are rising. The US dollar is rising, but gold prices are rising.
Real rates are rising and gold rates are rising. The traditional playbook that investors look at for gold is not playing out and there is a valid reason for that.
We spoke about the fact that they were under position. That under positioning has resulted self now.
They are holding as much gold as you would expect given the fed outlook but at the same time there must therefore be something else going on and in our view, if you are ready to get really nitty-gritty, you break down the fact that there is no evidence of this buying activity from 2200 and ounce to today's prices that are showing up on exchanges or in the US, or in China where the largest traders in China are now selling gold. You also have evidence that the very strong physical market demand that was coming from retail consumers in China is now subsiding after a strong start to the year. So who is this mystery buyer?
We know that it has extremely deep pockets because the scale of buying that it must take for gold prices to rise this much is very significant. We also know that the buyer is probably not transacting through typical channels. What that tells us is that it's most likely associated with a central bank. What is curious about that is that there seems to be a sense of urgency behind this particular buying program which is not typical of what we have been discussing over the last two years. At least since 2022, central bank buying has been hitting records but the level of aggression in terms of this buying program is not typical of what we have seen over the last two years and that's what leads us to believe that it might be associated with some form of currency intervention.
>> When it comes to central bank buying, does this put the rally at risk? You said we have outstripped the fundamentals.
Gold has moved almost like a tech stock.
You expect to see movements in gold but not the kind of rally we have had.
>> Certainly, at least not in this certain macro context where inflation is coming in hotter but the market is pricing up Fed cuts.
We are spending most of our time on the strategy side trying to figure out whether this buying activity has simply lifted the floor on gold prices or whether gold prices will not be able to sustain the recent gains once this buying activity dries up.
>> If the buying activity did dry up, which you and despite a sizable correction or just a leveling out of the trade? What could happen to the price of gold and they are term. We simply don't understand what's going on it sounds like.
>> It increasingly looks like the mystery bid that has propelled gold from 2200 to current prices is unlikely to sell their newly acquired gold.
If it's a currency intervention, it's not like that central bank will turn around tomorrow and sell all the gold that they have acquired.
It might simply be lifting the floor price on gold and once that buying activity dries up, the remaining path for gold will depend on how the macroeconomy evolves.
>> Gold is an interesting one. I'm glad we have you here on a regular basis to keep on top of all these very intriguing development. What about the move in silver as well?
>> The move in silver, silver markets, might just be the most exciting energy transition team in the commodities complex today. We spent so much time talking about copper and oil old when we talk about the energy transition but so little emphasis is placed on silver. We think that over the next year or two, one of the major assumptions that underlie silver markets is going to be challenged.
Here, I am referring to the fact that for the longest time, physical supply, surplus or deficit, did not really tend to matter for silver markets. The reason it didn't matter is because you tended to have at least 1.6 billion ounces of silver sitting in inventories so that was always ample enough to fill the gap with any physical market deficit.
The challenge today is that you actually have very significant erosion in the amount of silver that is actually available for purchase.
Within those bolts and particularly in London which has the largest bullying vaulting system in the world, but 75% of those inventories are earmarked by another holder. The London bullion market is 75% of the world's inventory system but a significant portion is earmarked by ETF holders, for instance. That leaves a significantly smaller portion of silver inventories that are actually freely available today. The challenge here is that the universally recognized deficits expected by markets over the next few years might just erode those inventories and the next 12 to 24 months.
>> I know you are not a mining analyst, but if we are talking about tight inventories, is the mining industry keeping up with silver demand?
>> His was interesting as well is that silver is one of those metals that is primarily mined as a byproduct.
People that mined zinc or lead or gold, etc., and up mining silver at the same time. What's funny about that is that it's also one of those quantities that tend to have a structural sellers since it is mind as a byproduct, minors tend to sell it as it's not their primary asset for their stockholders.
>> Fascinating stuff as always and a great start to the program.
We will get your questions about commodities for Daniel Ghali in just a moment's time.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Amazon is adding an artificial intelligence expert to its Board of Directors.
Andrew Ng has previously led to a I projects at Google and Baidu and teaches at Stanford University.
The pointman comes amid increased competition among the tech giants for dominance in artificial intelligence.
Let's take a look again at shares of used-car dealer CarMax, clearly under pressure today.
Almost 12% to the downside. The company missed on the top and bottom lines for the most recent quarter and is belying the timeline in a key sales target. CarMax says potential buyers of used cars are facing affordability challenges and inflationary pressures. Their parent company of Corona and Modelo says demand for its beer is resilient.
Constellation Brands is forecasting annual profit above analyst expectations and it improved operating margins in the beer business for its most recent quarter.
Let's look at the markets. We will start with the TSX Composite Index. Some pressure today among energy names and mining names.
We are down 99 points, a little less than half a percent. South of the border in the states, keep weighing all indications of inflation, trying to figure out what the central bank might get up to this year.
Right now after yesterday's selling pressure after a higher-than-expected CPI print, up about eight points, a little shy of 1/5 of a percent.
We are back with Daniel Ghali, taking your questions on all things commodities. Let's get to the first one.
What your outlook for oil and the energy sector? Could West Texas intermediate near $100 US per barrel?
>> Here's the thing about oil markets.
We have re-price varies significantly from the start of the year. We spoke about this before as well that we entered the year with commodity demand sentiment being overly pessimistic.
We also think that the dislocation has resolved but today it does look like commodity demand sentiment has overshot it and is now overly optimistic. The macroeconomic outlook hasn't changed all that much so far this year but sentiment surrounding it certainly has. That's one of the factors that has contributed to the recent rally in oil prices even though the narrative has been focused on suppliers.
Keep in mind that today, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf nations hold a substantial amount of spare capacity. Of course, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East at risk using up all of the spare capacity that the world has available from these Gulf nations if there is a broadening out of the conflict that involves Iran.
>> Does this make a hard market right now to figure what happens next, you talk about the geopolitical risk and the limited spare capacity.
These seem to be hard variables to take and form an idea of what will happen on the other side.
>> The geopolitical context today is extremely complex with a wide variety of variables that you typically don't have to think of.
I think about 40 or 50% of the world population is voting this year. That is relevant for many emerging-market producer nations of oil and metals, and it's particularly relevant after a period of high inflation. There is a lot of unrest around the world.
Rising risk of wars in many regions, whether we are talking about the Middle East or we shouldn't forget that Venezuela has been sabre rattling over the last few months.
These are all part of the global oil story.
>> So it was a question about $100 WTI. I won't nail you down to a price target but is it probable, I guess it just depends on how the world unfolds.
>> It certainly depends on whether or not Iran will be directly involved in the conflict with Israel and even so, the nature of the conflict has different implications. It's possible that your brand doesn't intend to strike Israel on its oil. If it does, that risks retaliation on Iranian soil.
That would have different implications than on a different type of aggression.
It's a very complex situation. Of course, we do not have any information as to how things will develop but certainly, if there is a ground war that involves Iran, the risk for oil supplies is very significant.
>> Definitely something to keep an eye on there.
Someone wants to know, what's driving up the price of industrial metals like copper? You talked about gold off the top and silver.
>> Copper is top of mind, as is often the case. In the context of copper, the rally that we have seen has been kicked off by supply. We have been talking about concerns from minors, the under production from minors over the last few years but it looks like it just started to bite into refined copper which is the price that people actually tend to trade. What catalase that is a meeting between China's largest copper smelters in which they are currently debating whether or not they intend to coordinate a production cut.
What is curious about this is that it certainly seems like there margins have been depressed to the point where it would no longer be profitable but at the same time, physical copper market traders are pricing in ample supply. So you actually have this curious situation where investors have bought in to this idea.
They have contributed to the rising prices but physical market traders are saying, hold on a second, we actually think supply remains ample.
Perhaps that points to the fact that China's smelting industry has built up a very significant amount of capacity over the last few years and even if they do curtail their operations, perhaps we are still at a good capacity.
>> When we think about the Chinese economy, disappointment. Once they lifted their restrictions over a year ago, we thought it was game on, it was game on for China.
Are we still trying to figure out what the appetite will be?
>> Every commodity trader and analyst is trying to figure this out. We have signs of the manufacturing sector is improving but at the same time, the real estate sector is deteriorating once again.
Completions have been the priority for government policy for the last year and that has been actually very supportive for copper demand more generally because that is the portion of a construction project, the stage at which it is more metal intensive. The problem now is that completions are starting to decline once again and you have a two year long period where construction starts have basically grown to a halt.
>> I know you are not a mining equity analyst but obviously in the headlines last year and this year was Cobre Panama.
It's not clear what will happen following their elections.
Could that sort of chain things in terms of global copper supply?
>> That's precisely what investors are thinking.
The story that we spoke about about Chinese smelter margins being eroded, that's largely probably the mechanical implication of less copper concentrate showing up in China. Smelters essentially have to compete to get access to this concentrate and in turn, there margins are compressed. The question from here is on whether or not there will still be an overcapacity in China's domestic smelter industry even want to account for that.
>> Fascinating stuff. So many moving pieces when we talk commodities.
We will get to more of your questions for Daniel Ghali on commodities in just a moment's time.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com.
Now, let's get our educational segment of the day.
Well, regular viewers of the show would know that on a daily basis, we show the markets on the back half of the show by using the heat map function on Advanced Dashboard. Here to ask Lane how that works is Bryan Rogers, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. Great to see you. Walk us through it. How do you start using the heat map?
>> Yeah, that's a great question.
Like you said, I know our audience and viewers that see us regularly on that market update might be thinking, how can I get a heat map? How come Greg is having all the fun with this? So I thought I would show everybody how you can access that. You can only access this on Advanced Dashboard.
You can launches on your own or with an web broker as well.
Over here, you can see that I am on the heat map tab which is normally the default. Advanced Dashboard is completely customizable so you might have customized it and it may not be in the exact same spot but typically there will be a monitor, charts and then there is a Market Pulse section where you are going to have the heat map is one of the first taps on the left.
We've had other people joke around that it looks like you're flying an airplane, you have an overhead view, it looks like farmers fields, sections of farms. But what it is showing is really cool, it's especially cool to see when you have a big day, if there's a certain sector that's on fire, hence the term heat map.
You may not necessarily see red unless the market is going down, but you can see bright green colours and what these colours are representing as you can see for example that if I click on this I can see a little bit more information, showing you the symbol, name, performance.
The colour is going to show, it's really bright green, that means it's usually up over 5%. In the middle, we are seeing darker greens and greyish, that usually means that the market is flat on the stock showing those colours.
And the sizing can be significant. You can set it to different things as well. You can see right now it is set to market capitalization so we can see these bigger socks over here like Google and Microsoft and Apple are larger and market cap or you can see in these other sectors, there are a lot smaller market Stocks. As you go along the top, you can edit some of these, we were sorting by traded volume as well, you have it sorted by sector, etc. You can have a look and play around with this.
You can look at volatility.
You can see the colours are totally changing.
You can see volatility as an example.
And you can go to, what else? We have trading volume, you can switch to that.
The colours change, later to darker once again.
If I go back to performance, you can also change on the size, if you want to change the size of these boxes by volatility or volume as an example. You will see performance still but you will also see how much volume is happening each one of the squares. That's another way to work like that. You can filter it in a number of different ways and even turn off some of the sorting or nongroup by sectors and you want to see everything all at once, gets a little crazy when it's not divided by anything in particular. Whatever you prefer, whatever you're looking for, you can set up the heat map and have as much fun as Greg on his market updates.
>> I wanted to ask you, you showed us how to customize the heat map. Regular viewers say, wait a minute, you're not showing us that many names. I typically look at the TSX 60. How do you start doing that? You obviously don't have to take the entire market on your screen.
>> That can be overwhelming. I was looking at the S&P 500. Some people like to see the broad picture but you're right.
If I jump back and share Advanced Dashboard again, that's one of the things I skipped over, I have the S&P 500 up. But you can also select the TSX or the TSX 60 like Greg does.
That makes it a little easier on the eyes and you can see the symbols much easier.
They are still taking up the full screen but they're not as many squares or rectangles showing here.
The other cool thing is he who go like Greg said as well, you can go to the S&P 100.
You can go to different sectors also, if you want to go to materials, energy.
So you can find what you are looking for.
We can go to consumer staples or materials as an example, you might be able to find something you are looking for there.
Lastly, a really cool thing is if you know how to do a watchlist and Advanced Dashboard, I know we have gone over that of previous segments, but create a new watchlist, I got one as an example. There are a lot of tech stocks I like to follow, I have a big list of tech stocks.
Even though there might be an index but there might not be a stock on there. Once you created a watchlist it will show up down here at the bottom and for example I can click on tech stocks and now this is an actual personalized watchlist that I'm looking at of a number of stocks and I like to follow.
I can see lift is up quite a bit today and so on. I get a quick picture of some selected stocks are maybe following as well.
>> You know what Bryan, I did not know that I could make my own heat map of like names that I want on a watchlist. I have some fun ahead for me this afternoon.
>> It's a challenge for you now, Greg.
>> Maybe I will share it on the show someday. Great stuff as always, thanks for joining us.
>> Thank you.
>> Bryan Rogers, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars. Before you get back your questions for the valley, a reminder of how you can get in touch with us. Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send.
We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live.
Okay, we're back with Daniel Ghali, take your questions on all things commodities.
Next when here from the audience. Interest rates. If we get interest rate cuts this year, what does that mean for commodities?
What happens if we don't get any cuts?
>> We spoke a little bit about this earlier about what's interesting about the commodity market rally so far is that it's been during a period of time where the markets outlook for Fed cuts has been deteriorating.
If we do get more cuts than we currently expect, that would actually be a pretty significant tailwind for commodity prices and we would most likely see a substantial increase in prices resulting from that.
There are, however, historically, some significant legs between when the Fed actually cuts rates and where it impacts commodity demand.
Investors might get ahead of that but the actual implication for the man could take as long as 12 months.
>> We are starting to get some pundits out there and even some Fed speakers saying we need to watch the data as it comes in and raising the possibility of fewer cuts unexpected this year, the market is pricing it in, or maybe no cuts.
There is an outside chance of a hike if we absolutely had to. You start getting into the territory, how does it start playing out for the commodities trade?
>> That is certainly a growing risk in the minds of many investors out there.
The fact that oil prices have rallied so significantly is what has been the most concerning. It has implications for headline inflation data but it also has implications, as we saw in the pandemic, segments of core inflation as well, airfare prices and so on.
Certainly if we do continue to see the kind of price action that we have in the commodity sector, this could become a significant concern for the Fed. If said cuts are priced out, investors are more likely than not to start telling commodities.
>> Interesting stuff to watch on that front not only for equity portfolios but for commodities as well when it comes to interest rate policy.
Let's talk electric vehicles. Will sagging EV demand? The commodity space?
I've been surprised over the last few months how big automakers are shifting away from EVs and towards hybrids.
>> Hybrids seemed to be gaining more market share.
I would say the story is more nuanced than the headline suggests. Certainly, China is the largest EV market in the world by far, and EV sales in China are actually doing quite well.
This is perhaps more of a North American story and perhaps in Europe as well but the global EV market might have slowed a little bit but it still appears secularly strong.
>> I've got a frog in my throat.
Let's take a sip of this. This is weird.
You know what we're gonna do? We are going to get back to questions for Daniel Ghali on quantities and just moments time. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
and a reminder you can get in touch with us at any time.
Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets?
Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions.
There are two ways you can get in touch with us.
You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send.
We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live.
That was embarrassing. My voice just seized up. My eyes were watering. I think I'm back now and I'm gonna throw things over to my colleague. US small business optimism falling to the lowest level since 2012. Inflation highlighted as a concern.
Anthony Okolie has been digging into it and takes it away.
>> US small business optimism Index fell nearly 1.2 88.5 in March.
This comes in below expectations. This is the lowest level the index has been in 12 years.
It also marks the 27th consecutive month of worsening mood among small businesses in the US with optimism below the 50 year average of 98.
Some key findings of the index. Inflation is a top business problem on Bay Street and labour markets has also eased slightly. Let's take a look at some subcomponents. Six out of the 10 Subgroups Fell in March. We sought to improve and to stay unchanged. Specifically, the biggest decline was led by expectations for a higher real sales, it was down eight points to 18%. The belief that now is a good time to expand businesses, that take down about 1.4%.
Earnings trends managed to take higher to -29%, it was up to points in March. The share of firms with unfilled job openings held steady at 37%.
Points to the fact that the labour market has eased slightly.
The quality labour concerns rose modestly by two points but it only represents a partial recovery after dropping more than five points in the prior month.
However, inflation again rose to points to 25% and was identified by business owners in the US as their top business problem.
The survey results came prior to the latest US CPI data, which showed that headline inflation in March it remains stubbornly high, indicating that businesses and consumers are still feeling the pinch from higher inflation or higher prices.
Meanwhile, the share of firms hiking compensation rose last month to 38%, it was up to points, while the share of businesses of raising average selling price was up about 7 Points in March as well. While the US labour market is showing continued signs of resilience, TD Economics says that this survey results .2 cooling conditions among smaller firms regarding job openings and quality of labour concerns trending lower. Greg?
>> Clearly the Fed has a lot of information to go through between meetings. When you talk about business sentiment being at this level, what impact could that have on Fed policy in the future direction of rates?
>> TD Economics is the sharp backup informs raising average selling prices and an uptick in those intending to raise prices suggest we are not out of the woods with respect to inflation.
This continues to point to some upside risk for inflation in the months ahead, an element that TD Economics says leads in favour of a more patient Fed when it comes to the timing of the rate cuts.
TD Economics favours the Fed waiting until July before this rate cuts come.
>> Thanks for that in more ways than one, Anthony.
>> My pleasure.
>> A little breathing space there.
Now, for an update on the markets.
All right, we are back into Advanced Dashboard, back into the heat map. I like to pair down to the TSX 60, give us more of a view of what's going on in the biggest companies in the TSX Composite Index. You can see we've got pain in the energy space today, CNQ pulling back almost 2%, Suncor and Cenovus also on the retreat. Cameco, a uranium play, is getting a bid, about 2%.
Across the rest of the board, not a lot of greed on the screen. Downward pressure among the financials. South of the border, the S&P 100, let's check in on that.
Yesterday, we had US CPI, the headline number coming in hotter than expected. The markets did not react well.
Today it's a bit of a mixed bag when you dig down into the details. A bit of a bid to detect names, including Nvidia.
Two sessions ago, Nvidia fell into correction.
It was down 10% from recent highs.
It's been clawing back some territory.
Nike to the upside as well. Across rest of the screen, some big names including big banks on Wall Street including Bank of America to the downside.
You can get more information on TD Advanced Dashboard by visiting TD.com/advanceddashboard.
We are back now with Daniel Ghali from TD Securities. Let's get more questions for Daniel.
Someone wants to get your Outlook for platinum and palladium.
>> Sure.
The platinum and palladium markets have dramatically outperformed, underperformed the rally and other precious metals so far this year. What's interesting about that is the fundamentals were these industrial metals has actually improved. The major concern there is that internal combustion engine sales might have peaked in 2023.
These metals are primarily used as catalysts for emissions control and concern is that going forward, demand is now in a structural decline. This is particularly impactful for palladium given that platinum is still benefiting from some substitution away from palladium into platinum for those at mission control catalysts. I would say the supply side is where you've had most of the positive surprises. There has been an expectation of increased recycling activities that would increase secondary supply costs for the rest of this year but that just continues to underperform analyst expectations really to the tune of nearly 1.6 million ounces over the next five years.
This is a very substantial evolution of the supply side that has not been priced.
>> Does I can overlook sometimes and we are talking about metals, particularly industrial metals?
I'm not an expert on the space but it seems like they live their useful life in this component, they are still there and we can use in summer also we recycle them.
>> Certainly the recycling side of it is now very topical, also for copper. This is 1 Potential Ave. that will allow the world to electrify without necessarily investing into new copper mines. There is going to be a need to invest substantially more into refining or recycling capacity going forward.
>> Another question from the audience, this one about politics. What impact could the US election have on the commodity space?
>> Yes, that is certainly on top of many investors minds today. I think how most people are looking at it now is regardless of who is elected president in the United States, we are probably looking at a substantial increase in spending or at the very least to maintain the very high levels of spending that we are seeing today.
That has implications for many different commodities.
There is also concern surrounding whether some of the policies that Pres. Biden has put into place, namely the inflation reduction act, the CHIPS Act, whether they could be challenged by a new administration which would have implications for things like copper demand. To us, it looks like this is most impactful for gold given that the rising debt loads are very topical in markets.
>> Before let you go, I want to go back to the top of our conversation. We have started with the rally in gold and the mystery behind what's been fuelling this last leg of the rally.
What do we want to be mindful of, for anyone watching the price of gold?
>> We need to be mindful of the fact that real rates in the US dollar, which are the traditional economic indicators that people tend to look out for gold, or moving in the opposite direction. The US dollar is exceptionally resilient.
US real yields are rising at a pretty aggressive pace, so we certainly need to be mindful of that when expecting higher gold prices.
The buying activity that would translate into that is not going to come from investors.
>> Always a pleasure having you. I look forward to the next chat.
>> Thank you so much.
>> Our thanks for Daniel Ghali, Senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
if we don't have time to get to your question today, we will aim to get it into future shows.
Stay tuned for Friday, we will be back with some of our best interviews of the week. Next week you will have copperheads of analysis and reaction to the federal budget that comes out on Tuesday.
All of that will be available right here on the web broker platform. We will be getting a reaction from deputy chief economist at TD, Derek Burleton, and Nicole Ewing, director of tax and estate planning a TD Wealth.
They will help us parse it out next week on MoneyTalk.
And a reminder that you get in touch with us at any time.
Just email MoneyTalkLive@TD.com.
That's all the time we have for the show today. Thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow.
[music]
Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here.
We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing.
Coming up on today's show, that means looking at gold. The price of the precious metal continues to be red-hot. We will look at how high you could go or some potential headwinds to this rally. Daniel Ghali of TD Securities joins us. Markets editor Anthony Okolie will tell us why small business owners in the US are feeling far less optimistic than they used to. A bit of a hand, it might have something to do with inflation.
Bryan Rogers going to tell us everything we need to know about creating a heat map and Advanced Dashboard.
Here's how you can get in touch with us.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Before we get to the guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets. We will start you at home on the TSX Composite Index.
113 points in the whole, down about half a percent.
Seeing the gold price hold up but the rally in oil pulling back a little bit after making substantial gains in recent session.
What is it made for the trade underneath the surface? Among the most actively traded names at this time is Athabasca Oil, down 4.5%.
Also Air Canada, at $19.08, it's pulling back 1.5%. South of the border, the Americans continue to parse out every single inflation print.
Yesterday was headline CPI and today was wholesale prices, rising less than expected month over month but the annual rate year-over-year… You got 6.5 points to the upside after yesterday's selling pressure.
The NASDAQ is up almost half a percent.
CarMax, a used car dealer, we'll talk more about them later, but the forecast… CarMax is on a little more than 12%. And that is your market update.
It may have been dampened briefly by Wednesdays hotter than expected US inflation data but the price of gold continues to hit new milestones. It is more upside likely or has rally run its course? You to give us his take, Daniel Ghali of TD Securities. Great to have you back.
>> Thanks for having me.
>> We are talking about asset classes in the spotlight so far this year, gold is definitely one. What has been happening?
>> This is probably one of the most exciting times in precious metals for a number of reasons.
We spoke earlier this year about the fact that macro traders started the year with historic dislocations. They were historically under positioned ahead of a fed cutting cycle.
That's what propelled gold to reaching all-time highs but at the same time, in our view, that buying activity ran out of steam by the time the price reach $2200 per ounce.
Right now, there is a mysterious buyer, which we think is associated with currency intervention in China.
>> One thing we talked about over the last 1.5 years or so a central bank buying and's idea that there was some concern about currency markets that people were getting back into gold, citing mysterious buyer, let's dig deeper into this idea.
You think the fundamentals played themselves out but the buying continues.
>> What's curious about buying activity so far this year is that Fed cuts are being priced out but gold prices are rising. The US dollar is rising, but gold prices are rising.
Real rates are rising and gold rates are rising. The traditional playbook that investors look at for gold is not playing out and there is a valid reason for that.
We spoke about the fact that they were under position. That under positioning has resulted self now.
They are holding as much gold as you would expect given the fed outlook but at the same time there must therefore be something else going on and in our view, if you are ready to get really nitty-gritty, you break down the fact that there is no evidence of this buying activity from 2200 and ounce to today's prices that are showing up on exchanges or in the US, or in China where the largest traders in China are now selling gold. You also have evidence that the very strong physical market demand that was coming from retail consumers in China is now subsiding after a strong start to the year. So who is this mystery buyer?
We know that it has extremely deep pockets because the scale of buying that it must take for gold prices to rise this much is very significant. We also know that the buyer is probably not transacting through typical channels. What that tells us is that it's most likely associated with a central bank. What is curious about that is that there seems to be a sense of urgency behind this particular buying program which is not typical of what we have been discussing over the last two years. At least since 2022, central bank buying has been hitting records but the level of aggression in terms of this buying program is not typical of what we have seen over the last two years and that's what leads us to believe that it might be associated with some form of currency intervention.
>> When it comes to central bank buying, does this put the rally at risk? You said we have outstripped the fundamentals.
Gold has moved almost like a tech stock.
You expect to see movements in gold but not the kind of rally we have had.
>> Certainly, at least not in this certain macro context where inflation is coming in hotter but the market is pricing up Fed cuts.
We are spending most of our time on the strategy side trying to figure out whether this buying activity has simply lifted the floor on gold prices or whether gold prices will not be able to sustain the recent gains once this buying activity dries up.
>> If the buying activity did dry up, which you and despite a sizable correction or just a leveling out of the trade? What could happen to the price of gold and they are term. We simply don't understand what's going on it sounds like.
>> It increasingly looks like the mystery bid that has propelled gold from 2200 to current prices is unlikely to sell their newly acquired gold.
If it's a currency intervention, it's not like that central bank will turn around tomorrow and sell all the gold that they have acquired.
It might simply be lifting the floor price on gold and once that buying activity dries up, the remaining path for gold will depend on how the macroeconomy evolves.
>> Gold is an interesting one. I'm glad we have you here on a regular basis to keep on top of all these very intriguing development. What about the move in silver as well?
>> The move in silver, silver markets, might just be the most exciting energy transition team in the commodities complex today. We spent so much time talking about copper and oil old when we talk about the energy transition but so little emphasis is placed on silver. We think that over the next year or two, one of the major assumptions that underlie silver markets is going to be challenged.
Here, I am referring to the fact that for the longest time, physical supply, surplus or deficit, did not really tend to matter for silver markets. The reason it didn't matter is because you tended to have at least 1.6 billion ounces of silver sitting in inventories so that was always ample enough to fill the gap with any physical market deficit.
The challenge today is that you actually have very significant erosion in the amount of silver that is actually available for purchase.
Within those bolts and particularly in London which has the largest bullying vaulting system in the world, but 75% of those inventories are earmarked by another holder. The London bullion market is 75% of the world's inventory system but a significant portion is earmarked by ETF holders, for instance. That leaves a significantly smaller portion of silver inventories that are actually freely available today. The challenge here is that the universally recognized deficits expected by markets over the next few years might just erode those inventories and the next 12 to 24 months.
>> I know you are not a mining analyst, but if we are talking about tight inventories, is the mining industry keeping up with silver demand?
>> His was interesting as well is that silver is one of those metals that is primarily mined as a byproduct.
People that mined zinc or lead or gold, etc., and up mining silver at the same time. What's funny about that is that it's also one of those quantities that tend to have a structural sellers since it is mind as a byproduct, minors tend to sell it as it's not their primary asset for their stockholders.
>> Fascinating stuff as always and a great start to the program.
We will get your questions about commodities for Daniel Ghali in just a moment's time.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Amazon is adding an artificial intelligence expert to its Board of Directors.
Andrew Ng has previously led to a I projects at Google and Baidu and teaches at Stanford University.
The pointman comes amid increased competition among the tech giants for dominance in artificial intelligence.
Let's take a look again at shares of used-car dealer CarMax, clearly under pressure today.
Almost 12% to the downside. The company missed on the top and bottom lines for the most recent quarter and is belying the timeline in a key sales target. CarMax says potential buyers of used cars are facing affordability challenges and inflationary pressures. Their parent company of Corona and Modelo says demand for its beer is resilient.
Constellation Brands is forecasting annual profit above analyst expectations and it improved operating margins in the beer business for its most recent quarter.
Let's look at the markets. We will start with the TSX Composite Index. Some pressure today among energy names and mining names.
We are down 99 points, a little less than half a percent. South of the border in the states, keep weighing all indications of inflation, trying to figure out what the central bank might get up to this year.
Right now after yesterday's selling pressure after a higher-than-expected CPI print, up about eight points, a little shy of 1/5 of a percent.
We are back with Daniel Ghali, taking your questions on all things commodities. Let's get to the first one.
What your outlook for oil and the energy sector? Could West Texas intermediate near $100 US per barrel?
>> Here's the thing about oil markets.
We have re-price varies significantly from the start of the year. We spoke about this before as well that we entered the year with commodity demand sentiment being overly pessimistic.
We also think that the dislocation has resolved but today it does look like commodity demand sentiment has overshot it and is now overly optimistic. The macroeconomic outlook hasn't changed all that much so far this year but sentiment surrounding it certainly has. That's one of the factors that has contributed to the recent rally in oil prices even though the narrative has been focused on suppliers.
Keep in mind that today, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf nations hold a substantial amount of spare capacity. Of course, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East at risk using up all of the spare capacity that the world has available from these Gulf nations if there is a broadening out of the conflict that involves Iran.
>> Does this make a hard market right now to figure what happens next, you talk about the geopolitical risk and the limited spare capacity.
These seem to be hard variables to take and form an idea of what will happen on the other side.
>> The geopolitical context today is extremely complex with a wide variety of variables that you typically don't have to think of.
I think about 40 or 50% of the world population is voting this year. That is relevant for many emerging-market producer nations of oil and metals, and it's particularly relevant after a period of high inflation. There is a lot of unrest around the world.
Rising risk of wars in many regions, whether we are talking about the Middle East or we shouldn't forget that Venezuela has been sabre rattling over the last few months.
These are all part of the global oil story.
>> So it was a question about $100 WTI. I won't nail you down to a price target but is it probable, I guess it just depends on how the world unfolds.
>> It certainly depends on whether or not Iran will be directly involved in the conflict with Israel and even so, the nature of the conflict has different implications. It's possible that your brand doesn't intend to strike Israel on its oil. If it does, that risks retaliation on Iranian soil.
That would have different implications than on a different type of aggression.
It's a very complex situation. Of course, we do not have any information as to how things will develop but certainly, if there is a ground war that involves Iran, the risk for oil supplies is very significant.
>> Definitely something to keep an eye on there.
Someone wants to know, what's driving up the price of industrial metals like copper? You talked about gold off the top and silver.
>> Copper is top of mind, as is often the case. In the context of copper, the rally that we have seen has been kicked off by supply. We have been talking about concerns from minors, the under production from minors over the last few years but it looks like it just started to bite into refined copper which is the price that people actually tend to trade. What catalase that is a meeting between China's largest copper smelters in which they are currently debating whether or not they intend to coordinate a production cut.
What is curious about this is that it certainly seems like there margins have been depressed to the point where it would no longer be profitable but at the same time, physical copper market traders are pricing in ample supply. So you actually have this curious situation where investors have bought in to this idea.
They have contributed to the rising prices but physical market traders are saying, hold on a second, we actually think supply remains ample.
Perhaps that points to the fact that China's smelting industry has built up a very significant amount of capacity over the last few years and even if they do curtail their operations, perhaps we are still at a good capacity.
>> When we think about the Chinese economy, disappointment. Once they lifted their restrictions over a year ago, we thought it was game on, it was game on for China.
Are we still trying to figure out what the appetite will be?
>> Every commodity trader and analyst is trying to figure this out. We have signs of the manufacturing sector is improving but at the same time, the real estate sector is deteriorating once again.
Completions have been the priority for government policy for the last year and that has been actually very supportive for copper demand more generally because that is the portion of a construction project, the stage at which it is more metal intensive. The problem now is that completions are starting to decline once again and you have a two year long period where construction starts have basically grown to a halt.
>> I know you are not a mining equity analyst but obviously in the headlines last year and this year was Cobre Panama.
It's not clear what will happen following their elections.
Could that sort of chain things in terms of global copper supply?
>> That's precisely what investors are thinking.
The story that we spoke about about Chinese smelter margins being eroded, that's largely probably the mechanical implication of less copper concentrate showing up in China. Smelters essentially have to compete to get access to this concentrate and in turn, there margins are compressed. The question from here is on whether or not there will still be an overcapacity in China's domestic smelter industry even want to account for that.
>> Fascinating stuff. So many moving pieces when we talk commodities.
We will get to more of your questions for Daniel Ghali on commodities in just a moment's time.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com.
Now, let's get our educational segment of the day.
Well, regular viewers of the show would know that on a daily basis, we show the markets on the back half of the show by using the heat map function on Advanced Dashboard. Here to ask Lane how that works is Bryan Rogers, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. Great to see you. Walk us through it. How do you start using the heat map?
>> Yeah, that's a great question.
Like you said, I know our audience and viewers that see us regularly on that market update might be thinking, how can I get a heat map? How come Greg is having all the fun with this? So I thought I would show everybody how you can access that. You can only access this on Advanced Dashboard.
You can launches on your own or with an web broker as well.
Over here, you can see that I am on the heat map tab which is normally the default. Advanced Dashboard is completely customizable so you might have customized it and it may not be in the exact same spot but typically there will be a monitor, charts and then there is a Market Pulse section where you are going to have the heat map is one of the first taps on the left.
We've had other people joke around that it looks like you're flying an airplane, you have an overhead view, it looks like farmers fields, sections of farms. But what it is showing is really cool, it's especially cool to see when you have a big day, if there's a certain sector that's on fire, hence the term heat map.
You may not necessarily see red unless the market is going down, but you can see bright green colours and what these colours are representing as you can see for example that if I click on this I can see a little bit more information, showing you the symbol, name, performance.
The colour is going to show, it's really bright green, that means it's usually up over 5%. In the middle, we are seeing darker greens and greyish, that usually means that the market is flat on the stock showing those colours.
And the sizing can be significant. You can set it to different things as well. You can see right now it is set to market capitalization so we can see these bigger socks over here like Google and Microsoft and Apple are larger and market cap or you can see in these other sectors, there are a lot smaller market Stocks. As you go along the top, you can edit some of these, we were sorting by traded volume as well, you have it sorted by sector, etc. You can have a look and play around with this.
You can look at volatility.
You can see the colours are totally changing.
You can see volatility as an example.
And you can go to, what else? We have trading volume, you can switch to that.
The colours change, later to darker once again.
If I go back to performance, you can also change on the size, if you want to change the size of these boxes by volatility or volume as an example. You will see performance still but you will also see how much volume is happening each one of the squares. That's another way to work like that. You can filter it in a number of different ways and even turn off some of the sorting or nongroup by sectors and you want to see everything all at once, gets a little crazy when it's not divided by anything in particular. Whatever you prefer, whatever you're looking for, you can set up the heat map and have as much fun as Greg on his market updates.
>> I wanted to ask you, you showed us how to customize the heat map. Regular viewers say, wait a minute, you're not showing us that many names. I typically look at the TSX 60. How do you start doing that? You obviously don't have to take the entire market on your screen.
>> That can be overwhelming. I was looking at the S&P 500. Some people like to see the broad picture but you're right.
If I jump back and share Advanced Dashboard again, that's one of the things I skipped over, I have the S&P 500 up. But you can also select the TSX or the TSX 60 like Greg does.
That makes it a little easier on the eyes and you can see the symbols much easier.
They are still taking up the full screen but they're not as many squares or rectangles showing here.
The other cool thing is he who go like Greg said as well, you can go to the S&P 100.
You can go to different sectors also, if you want to go to materials, energy.
So you can find what you are looking for.
We can go to consumer staples or materials as an example, you might be able to find something you are looking for there.
Lastly, a really cool thing is if you know how to do a watchlist and Advanced Dashboard, I know we have gone over that of previous segments, but create a new watchlist, I got one as an example. There are a lot of tech stocks I like to follow, I have a big list of tech stocks.
Even though there might be an index but there might not be a stock on there. Once you created a watchlist it will show up down here at the bottom and for example I can click on tech stocks and now this is an actual personalized watchlist that I'm looking at of a number of stocks and I like to follow.
I can see lift is up quite a bit today and so on. I get a quick picture of some selected stocks are maybe following as well.
>> You know what Bryan, I did not know that I could make my own heat map of like names that I want on a watchlist. I have some fun ahead for me this afternoon.
>> It's a challenge for you now, Greg.
>> Maybe I will share it on the show someday. Great stuff as always, thanks for joining us.
>> Thank you.
>> Bryan Rogers, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars. Before you get back your questions for the valley, a reminder of how you can get in touch with us. Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send.
We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live.
Okay, we're back with Daniel Ghali, take your questions on all things commodities.
Next when here from the audience. Interest rates. If we get interest rate cuts this year, what does that mean for commodities?
What happens if we don't get any cuts?
>> We spoke a little bit about this earlier about what's interesting about the commodity market rally so far is that it's been during a period of time where the markets outlook for Fed cuts has been deteriorating.
If we do get more cuts than we currently expect, that would actually be a pretty significant tailwind for commodity prices and we would most likely see a substantial increase in prices resulting from that.
There are, however, historically, some significant legs between when the Fed actually cuts rates and where it impacts commodity demand.
Investors might get ahead of that but the actual implication for the man could take as long as 12 months.
>> We are starting to get some pundits out there and even some Fed speakers saying we need to watch the data as it comes in and raising the possibility of fewer cuts unexpected this year, the market is pricing it in, or maybe no cuts.
There is an outside chance of a hike if we absolutely had to. You start getting into the territory, how does it start playing out for the commodities trade?
>> That is certainly a growing risk in the minds of many investors out there.
The fact that oil prices have rallied so significantly is what has been the most concerning. It has implications for headline inflation data but it also has implications, as we saw in the pandemic, segments of core inflation as well, airfare prices and so on.
Certainly if we do continue to see the kind of price action that we have in the commodity sector, this could become a significant concern for the Fed. If said cuts are priced out, investors are more likely than not to start telling commodities.
>> Interesting stuff to watch on that front not only for equity portfolios but for commodities as well when it comes to interest rate policy.
Let's talk electric vehicles. Will sagging EV demand? The commodity space?
I've been surprised over the last few months how big automakers are shifting away from EVs and towards hybrids.
>> Hybrids seemed to be gaining more market share.
I would say the story is more nuanced than the headline suggests. Certainly, China is the largest EV market in the world by far, and EV sales in China are actually doing quite well.
This is perhaps more of a North American story and perhaps in Europe as well but the global EV market might have slowed a little bit but it still appears secularly strong.
>> I've got a frog in my throat.
Let's take a sip of this. This is weird.
You know what we're gonna do? We are going to get back to questions for Daniel Ghali on quantities and just moments time. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
and a reminder you can get in touch with us at any time.
Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets?
Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions.
There are two ways you can get in touch with us.
You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send.
We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live.
That was embarrassing. My voice just seized up. My eyes were watering. I think I'm back now and I'm gonna throw things over to my colleague. US small business optimism falling to the lowest level since 2012. Inflation highlighted as a concern.
Anthony Okolie has been digging into it and takes it away.
>> US small business optimism Index fell nearly 1.2 88.5 in March.
This comes in below expectations. This is the lowest level the index has been in 12 years.
It also marks the 27th consecutive month of worsening mood among small businesses in the US with optimism below the 50 year average of 98.
Some key findings of the index. Inflation is a top business problem on Bay Street and labour markets has also eased slightly. Let's take a look at some subcomponents. Six out of the 10 Subgroups Fell in March. We sought to improve and to stay unchanged. Specifically, the biggest decline was led by expectations for a higher real sales, it was down eight points to 18%. The belief that now is a good time to expand businesses, that take down about 1.4%.
Earnings trends managed to take higher to -29%, it was up to points in March. The share of firms with unfilled job openings held steady at 37%.
Points to the fact that the labour market has eased slightly.
The quality labour concerns rose modestly by two points but it only represents a partial recovery after dropping more than five points in the prior month.
However, inflation again rose to points to 25% and was identified by business owners in the US as their top business problem.
The survey results came prior to the latest US CPI data, which showed that headline inflation in March it remains stubbornly high, indicating that businesses and consumers are still feeling the pinch from higher inflation or higher prices.
Meanwhile, the share of firms hiking compensation rose last month to 38%, it was up to points, while the share of businesses of raising average selling price was up about 7 Points in March as well. While the US labour market is showing continued signs of resilience, TD Economics says that this survey results .2 cooling conditions among smaller firms regarding job openings and quality of labour concerns trending lower. Greg?
>> Clearly the Fed has a lot of information to go through between meetings. When you talk about business sentiment being at this level, what impact could that have on Fed policy in the future direction of rates?
>> TD Economics is the sharp backup informs raising average selling prices and an uptick in those intending to raise prices suggest we are not out of the woods with respect to inflation.
This continues to point to some upside risk for inflation in the months ahead, an element that TD Economics says leads in favour of a more patient Fed when it comes to the timing of the rate cuts.
TD Economics favours the Fed waiting until July before this rate cuts come.
>> Thanks for that in more ways than one, Anthony.
>> My pleasure.
>> A little breathing space there.
Now, for an update on the markets.
All right, we are back into Advanced Dashboard, back into the heat map. I like to pair down to the TSX 60, give us more of a view of what's going on in the biggest companies in the TSX Composite Index. You can see we've got pain in the energy space today, CNQ pulling back almost 2%, Suncor and Cenovus also on the retreat. Cameco, a uranium play, is getting a bid, about 2%.
Across the rest of the board, not a lot of greed on the screen. Downward pressure among the financials. South of the border, the S&P 100, let's check in on that.
Yesterday, we had US CPI, the headline number coming in hotter than expected. The markets did not react well.
Today it's a bit of a mixed bag when you dig down into the details. A bit of a bid to detect names, including Nvidia.
Two sessions ago, Nvidia fell into correction.
It was down 10% from recent highs.
It's been clawing back some territory.
Nike to the upside as well. Across rest of the screen, some big names including big banks on Wall Street including Bank of America to the downside.
You can get more information on TD Advanced Dashboard by visiting TD.com/advanceddashboard.
We are back now with Daniel Ghali from TD Securities. Let's get more questions for Daniel.
Someone wants to get your Outlook for platinum and palladium.
>> Sure.
The platinum and palladium markets have dramatically outperformed, underperformed the rally and other precious metals so far this year. What's interesting about that is the fundamentals were these industrial metals has actually improved. The major concern there is that internal combustion engine sales might have peaked in 2023.
These metals are primarily used as catalysts for emissions control and concern is that going forward, demand is now in a structural decline. This is particularly impactful for palladium given that platinum is still benefiting from some substitution away from palladium into platinum for those at mission control catalysts. I would say the supply side is where you've had most of the positive surprises. There has been an expectation of increased recycling activities that would increase secondary supply costs for the rest of this year but that just continues to underperform analyst expectations really to the tune of nearly 1.6 million ounces over the next five years.
This is a very substantial evolution of the supply side that has not been priced.
>> Does I can overlook sometimes and we are talking about metals, particularly industrial metals?
I'm not an expert on the space but it seems like they live their useful life in this component, they are still there and we can use in summer also we recycle them.
>> Certainly the recycling side of it is now very topical, also for copper. This is 1 Potential Ave. that will allow the world to electrify without necessarily investing into new copper mines. There is going to be a need to invest substantially more into refining or recycling capacity going forward.
>> Another question from the audience, this one about politics. What impact could the US election have on the commodity space?
>> Yes, that is certainly on top of many investors minds today. I think how most people are looking at it now is regardless of who is elected president in the United States, we are probably looking at a substantial increase in spending or at the very least to maintain the very high levels of spending that we are seeing today.
That has implications for many different commodities.
There is also concern surrounding whether some of the policies that Pres. Biden has put into place, namely the inflation reduction act, the CHIPS Act, whether they could be challenged by a new administration which would have implications for things like copper demand. To us, it looks like this is most impactful for gold given that the rising debt loads are very topical in markets.
>> Before let you go, I want to go back to the top of our conversation. We have started with the rally in gold and the mystery behind what's been fuelling this last leg of the rally.
What do we want to be mindful of, for anyone watching the price of gold?
>> We need to be mindful of the fact that real rates in the US dollar, which are the traditional economic indicators that people tend to look out for gold, or moving in the opposite direction. The US dollar is exceptionally resilient.
US real yields are rising at a pretty aggressive pace, so we certainly need to be mindful of that when expecting higher gold prices.
The buying activity that would translate into that is not going to come from investors.
>> Always a pleasure having you. I look forward to the next chat.
>> Thank you so much.
>> Our thanks for Daniel Ghali, Senior commodity strategist at TD Securities.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
if we don't have time to get to your question today, we will aim to get it into future shows.
Stay tuned for Friday, we will be back with some of our best interviews of the week. Next week you will have copperheads of analysis and reaction to the federal budget that comes out on Tuesday.
All of that will be available right here on the web broker platform. We will be getting a reaction from deputy chief economist at TD, Derek Burleton, and Nicole Ewing, director of tax and estate planning a TD Wealth.
They will help us parse it out next week on MoneyTalk.
And a reminder that you get in touch with us at any time.
Just email MoneyTalkLive@TD.com.
That's all the time we have for the show today. Thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow.
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