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[music] >>hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk life brought you by TD direct investing. They'll be joined by guest from across TD, many of whom you only see here. We'll take it what is moving the markets and to your questions about investing. Coming up on today's show, will discuss with those production cuts from OPEC mean higher prices are here to stay with TD asset management Hussein Allidina and on today's WebBroker education segment, Jason, how to find commodities data on the platform. Here's how you can get in touch with us with your questions. Email MoneyTalk live@teevee.com or you can fill at the viewer response box right here in WebBroker. Before we get all of that, let's get you an update on the markets. To start the week, and since then a little bit indecisive. We got some pressure to the downside on Bay Street at 19,027 in the TSX comp off by 208 points and will call that a little more than a percent. Keeping in on some of the oil names, I do an American bench, stream and eight bucks a barrel investigative apex on the session and we are sourcing money move on some of these names, 2.8 and almost 3% and on the pipelines so synchronous and pressure stainless taken on average at 5159, it is down about 2.7%. Sort of a tale of two signs of the tape when on the oil side of pipeline size. On the other side of the border, checking an S&P 500 in one day ahead from the US jobs report, the Canadian jobs report due on Friday and key now and you try to get investors trying to find out where central banks are headed and what they need to see in the labour market feeling they're getting inflation under control. It is one data point that is a pretty significant point, 5759 and down more than 24%, little more than half percent. Educate tech heavy NASDAQ and see how it is daring today, some green on the screen, fairly modest almost half a point, but looking up. An X on Wall Street, sing a bid for the oil names as a south of the border, under bucks and change, on X on right now of 1.6%. And that is your market update. Well has been on the rise after dipping below $80 a barrel just last week with concerns about slowing growth and how this tug-of-war between tight supply and potential weeks demand payout. And it is more we have Hussein Allidina a TD asset management, always a pleasure to have you here today. The start who heard from OPEC this week and the drama continues to build this of course, White House not all that happy with OPEC. Take us through it. >> OPEC must meet yesterday in Vienna and they took a cut which I think was largely the White House wanted and larger than what the market was anticipating Garza levels, many of these countries not producing at the Target levels and we talked with the issues related to capacity. The actual kind is probably the tune of 800,000 barrels a day which we realized is concerning given where imageries are. Images have drawn meaningfully over the course of frankly since the pandemic lows. And they continue to draw, demand we know into the fourth quarter of increases seasonally and were kind of a trough. Right now were not dropping as much of that heating is much as you move into November and December. An increase there. The concern or what keeps me up at night Greg, it is the macro. ultimately when we look at balances and balances are tight, they continue to draw meaningfully. >> White House isn't happening in tapping their strategic reserves, I imagine he might tuck themselves out. >> If we look at conventional imageries, ignore the SPR, the picture does look so good, inventors looking at her markedly tight levels in the US. At your question, what could Biden do, he could potentially as drawdown from the SPR, we are getting to levels where again, it is quite concerning. >>what about production levels in the states? If the states isn't going to get what it wants in production in the side of the world, what with the other side of the world? >> This talked to the shortages of labour and the charges of material as well as the desire for many investors do not see companies grow production because of ESG issues. Again, if we look at supply and demand, whether in the US or globally, the fundamental picture is extremely tight and continues to tighten. I think the only reason that oil is trading at 80, 85 or $90 a barrel and not higher is because this concern about what tomorrow brings. If you see a material contraction in economic activity, that is going to play into weak oil demand, however, we look at the history of oil demand, there's only a couple of occasions in the last 50 years were demand has declined in absolute terms. And that is around the pandemic, around the financial crisis, and an earlier in the early 80s around the Iran and Iraq war and in the mid-70s around the Arab oil embargo. If you believe in GDP growth, you have to believe the oil demand is going to increase because is the oil that is firing that GDP. This chart, that viewers can see it, is US applied oil demand and it is in the average range will remove most of the year, weaker than it was in 2019, but not capitulating. I think without capitulation in oil demand, our inventories are headed to precariously tighten levels. >> Want to get into the oil trade, and you get terms like contango get thrown around, walked us through this next picture and what is it showing us? >> This is important especially for commodity investors, backwardation is a term referring to whatever the forward price of we look at today, looking oil, when the fortress is trading at a discount to the price today. Today, the price is trading at a premium. Notwithstanding the fact that the price, the flat price, the price using on the screen is, from 100+ we are out in the summer, the backwardation of the market has remained as pronounced. Refiners and those like to consume oil to make the and products that you and I consume are still willing to pay a material premium have the oil today vis-à-vis waiting until tomorrow or next month when they can get it at a discount. This underscores the tightness in the markets. If industries were not tight and industries were not drawn, you to that backwardation fate and potentially move into contango and ultimately that backwardation has stayed as pronounced if not more pronounced which again, underscores how tight the balances. >> This last picture to show that the audience, it is no speculation in the oil trade? >> Readable economic activity, into the fourth quarter and 2023, but if you are constructive on oil like I am, the fact that speculative length is at very low levels is encouraging. You seen a tremendous withdrawal of the market from noncommercial participants. The fact that speculative length is low is I think encouraging at least for my view, where you see outpaces moving higher. >> In terms of overall risk and went into this with OPEC, where the White House is not overall pleased, what we see in oil supply? >> Clearly Russia sending less natural gas to Europe, but if you look at the data, Russian experts of crude oil have actually been higher than they were in 2021, December 5 is an important date because that is the list was to see sanctions on Russian crude. Hasn't happened yet. If I think of the checklist of things between now and where we are headed, the Russia situation is either flat or positive for oil price because you will either see the same amount of crude if you are a bulk and doesn't import or you will see less. When you look at the SPR that we talked about, the sales and can neatly run the returns in the US, there's been a million barrels a day of supply and that kind of strategic reserves available to the market. Seasonally, demand increases are moving to the fourth quarter we talked with that at the start. China has been largely absent from the market. This year implied demand in China is weaker than it has been any point since 1991. If China reopens, imagine you see incremental demand from China. The list of things are positive for oil are definitely longer than the listener concerning which is again, economic activity. >> Great analysis is always from our guest Hussein, and will get your questions for him and just moments time. And you can get in touch with us at any time with us if you email MoneyTalk live@td.com or Bill at that viewer response box right under the video player here on WebBroker. And randomly updated on the top through the world of business and take a quick look at how the markets are trading. Suncor is selling all of its Canadian solar wind assets and focus on a plan to fix him's core business. There be purchased by Canadian to these limited or $7 million and some say selling those operations for the stingless's portfolio. Another read on the health of the US labour market today and ahead of the US jobs report. Weekly jobless claims came in higher-than-expected south of the border and investors are watching the labour market which is proven resilient in the face of these aggressive rate hikes were getting from the Federal Reserve. US jobs report for September is due tomorrow morning before the markets open. The coming holiday season is made US employers layout hiring plans and the latest is Amazon saying it will bring on 150,000 workers and full-time part-time and seasonal positions. Several other retailers including Target and Walmart have made similar hiring holiday announcements in the recent weeks. Checking among the markets, starting your home, south of the border, the broader read of the US market S&P 500 ahead of the jobs Friday, up by 754, down three quarters of a percent. Back now with Hussein Allidina and taking your questions about commodity. Let's get to them. A nice discussion of the oil of the top of the show. What is your view on that gas? >>ultimately, right now I think it is wait-and-see as we head into the weather, or sorry into the winter. If we get a one or 1 1/2 colder than normal winter, I see prices with materially hired in order to ration demand and limit exports and the US to Europe. >>We are needing natural gas into the winter, to me to think of this on geographic terms are not just one thing we are talking about? >>were able to import domestic inventories with a lot of NSG the reason they're able to do that was because China and Asia are burning more coal, China particular, just tempered their demand for an NG if we look in the US, to the extent that our balance can just extend us the ability to continue to export to Europe, we will. If independent colder weather in November, December or colder than normal weather can anticipate you'll see US natural gas prices move higher to discourage exports to Europe. Again, it boils down to the fact that the amount of storage that we have as we head into the winter is limited. With an filled storage capacity. As a result, you start the winter in the US with 38 or 39 TCF of gas storage which is adequate if we have normal weather. If we run into a scenario where weather is cooler than normal, particularly early in the winter I believe you're going to see prices move higher to discourage spot LNG cargoes and Pat when exports to Mexico. >> And talking with things we haven't felt in this country, this small talk about our opportunity and LNG exports, but what does it look on this front in terms of this country being able to capitalize on that? >> I think is been remarkably slow, to be frank. If we had invested in upstream and in the ability to export weather on the East Coast on the West Coast, clearly there is transmitter politics here. Not only will you be able to reduce the amount of coal but China is burning because it would been taking LNG from us, and able to help our allies in Europe. We have an LNG facility that should come online sometime next year or and 24 in the West Coast, this much resource in this country and gas is a cleaner fuel oil, a cleaner fuel and coal, so hope we see additional investment and expansion there. >> Natural gas there let's talk about the precious metal that is gold. What will Gold become attractive? >> I think gold is doing remarkably well, and outstanding faculty in the material and fire real rates is also strengthen the dollar. Ultimately, they can model the price of gold, would support for the price of gold is real rates, the dollar and to a lesser extent, the performance of equities because it is a substitute in your portfolio. You know, if you look at the dollar chart, the dollars had a phenomenal move. I don't know that the move is done, but were probably in the later innings of this play than the earlier innings. If that turns, anticipate you'll see gold as well. There is also portfolio construction benefit of having gold in your portfolio. We can talk will gold tactically, difficult trade to 700 or 750 or 2000, whatever it may be? I think you look at portfolios, whether it is emerging market countries or portfolios of pension plans and institutional investors, there is a home for gold in the portfolio and from a portfolio construction point of view, because it improves the sharp of the portfolio, I think it is an important commodity to have order for an asset to have in the portfolio, but the near-term direction of gold I think is very much dependent on where real rates go and where the dollar heads. >> Have the investors kept in the faith; there portfolio? I think in recent years, people of said is gold still the asset we thought it was? >> I think if you look at assets under management globally, the allocation to gold and to commodities is particularly low, lower than where it should be according to the academic research that talks with the value of having those assets in your portfolio. Where I work, prior to TM, we had a gold allocation for the paper and physical and that hasn't changed. The reason why that planned has the allocation is because it affords a different type of protection, a different type of performance in different market environments and gold I think, the environment that we are in is one that I think would be conducive for gold. >> Interesting stuff. Prévost move on to another question from the platform. What is your outlook for uranium? Is a tight turning in his favour? >> We talk of a green energy and energy transition, and I've said I don't think we can do without nuclear. I think reference to Japan and Germany and even here in Ontario are starting to talk about the need to extend the life of different facilities and there's a lot of talk about building small modular nuclear reactors around the world which are marked quicker to do than the bigger stuff we are used to. And the feedstock for that is uranium the rest of the commodity story, there's been a material underinvestment in the supply side so the are tight and is a demand for uranium grows because we see nuclear, and that the performance will do quite well. >>in terms of uranium stores, if people have the capital and they wanted to mine it, is that there, to the degree that we need it? >> I was in Saskatchewan a few months ago an office in Saskatchewan as well endowed with resources, but the environmental regulation, government regulation, not just uranium, BC the same thing when her to mine for copper, trying to mine for nickel, whatever it may be, that regulation is what extent the time between when you decide I want to invest when you ask are able to pull it out of the ground. >> Interest except as always. Make sure to open research before making investment decisions. The back to your questions for Hussein Allidina and just moment time. And you can get in touch with us at any time just email us at MoneyTalk live@td. com. I look at her educational segment for today. We are talking commodities so if you're looking for commodities information on the WebBroker platform, there are tools that can help. Joining us first more is Jason at TD direct investing, walk us through it and how to undertake this endeavour on WebBroker? >> Pleasure to be here Greg and it's her guest was saying commodities a huge part in the market as a whole and WebBroker has some very useful tools to help you stay on top of how things are looking. I will take you your term markets overview page and yes we have been to this page this segment many times and I'm sure will be her many times in the future. Lots of great information for us to see here. If on the commodities, were going to scroll down on this page and down below will see the markets and will see there is a section to review the commodity prices of some of the major energy and also agricultural commodities. We can see the last trading price as well we conceal the prices bearing amongst us range over the life of the future contracts. If you're looking for a little bit more information beyond just the last trading price, WebBroker got you covered with some great insight for research tools that will bring you back to the top of the page and go ahead and choose reports from the top of the top here. Lots of great independent third-party research available to all investors and to I would like to highly of us today, for scroll down on the right-hand side, we were MorningStar reports allows to dive into specific sectors. Rhetorical energy and we talk about precious metals and things like that and lots of great info information for you to dive into and see here. Plus will highlight is from our friends at TD economics and we can go and click on their report and we get some really useful information here. From here, you can break it down by geography of our purposes let's take a look at our friends at South of the border. Under the economy's tab, is broken down into commodities and industry. If we go and choose that, if you go to the commodities and industry section, we get some up-to-date real-time reports really light to scratch beneath the surface and get some useful information to stay informed. >> Much information on platform and investors want to start looking at some companies that have exposure and links to the commodity space and had to do that on the platform? >> Absolutely and being on track with information is one thing, we can migrate our way to be able to make a trade here, to start participating in the market. I will show you some simple ways to start making some of those insights. I want to choose the sector's tab at the top of the page. This how we can really start to funnel down different areas of the market to find particular stocks to invest in. We can now see a graph of all the different sectors within the market and if we school down, we get another list as we contract the performance as well against each other. We want to go ahead and focus on energy and can go ahead and choose energy and now we get the different industries within the energy sector for us to do a little bit more drilling down. Most folks on the drills here go to oil and gas drilling and know the list of different stocks and are here that are in that vein. And we can now begin to do additional research and maybe create a watchlist and choose to make an investment decision. Alternatively, if clients are looking to maybe get a little diversity through the use of ETF's, WebBroker also offers some great powerful screening tools to help you find investment ideas here. Will go back to the top and choose research, noted the tools column, will see screen. From here, we can see WebBroker offers stock, technical events as well as mutual funds and ETF's. I will go over and choose ETF's. Once in this particular screener, we have some future screens you can take advantage of, but for purposes Al Qaeda broad screen just we can identify the commodity ETF's are available here. I'll create a custom screen. Under the the fund -type selection will choose that and that criteria to her screen. Scrolling down to choose which country were interested in, maybe we'll keep it US to keep it symmetrical and underfunded type we have a commodity selection. From here, will view our matches and will see that we have hundred 24 separate ETF's to choose them and if this is a real-life trade scenario, maybe try to narrow down with other screening capabilities and criteria, but in any case, you got a list to start whittling it down and finding opportunities that are right for you. >> Thank you very much for joining us, Jason. And make sure you check out WebBroker for more educational videos and more master classes and some upcoming webinars including how we developed our unique investing styles and ways to find value in a down market. Will go back to questions about commodities for Hussein Allidina in her mind if I can get in touch with us. You've a question about investing what is driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what is on your mind so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us, you can send us an email anytime at MoneyTalk live@td.com or you can use a question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk live. We are back with Hussein Allidina and were taking your questions on commodities in one flesh of the platform, oil is a little higher, the gas prices are climbing higher it seems, why is that? >>two reasons, got refiners turning down for maintenance and diesel oil is moving to the winter. That reduced refinery utilization and production is contributing to tightening not only the gasoline balance but also the diesel balance. The second reason, I imagine the questions coming from someone in Canada, you've seen a material move in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Even though I seen 85 or $86, US dollar per barrel of WTI on the screen when I'm paying when I go to the pump has to factoring the fact of the Canadian dollar has depreciated. >> Had thought that the currency facts as well. Interesting stuff. Another question, this one about copper, what are guest thoughts about it? >> The metals in particular, the more pressure because of their dependence on Chinese demand, China has had this zero policy which is normally tempered, and when I took a look at the couple bounce over multi-year view, copper, zinc are important transitions in the energy transmission will look at the supply side of these as well, broken record, not attend investment, there's a lot of incremental demand that is expected in the 2025 and 2026 and on. Because of the energy transition is a very constructive medium term. The near term it looks like a challenge because of the overwhelming concern around economic growth. The difference between copper and oil that are more positive, oil balances tighter and demand there is less dependent on the emerging markets vis-à-vis something like the metals. >> If the miners got the funding that they needed, the gas this on a different question. If the miners get the go-ahead and the money they need and mine copper, is there enough to get humanity where it needs to go? >> There is enough, but assuming I get the capital and assuming that the regulation allows me to do it, it's going to take me six, seven, eight, nine or 10 years to get you the production online. The resource may be there to price, the issues the time between when I bring it online and when I need it. >> He is one that feeds into the EV space. I'll take a crack in saying this, what is the outlook for Spodemene lithium? >> Their host of commodities and trickled to this EV story, whether the battery or the power generation capacity or the transmission capacity to get from the powerplant to your house when you have an EV. That is all very constructive. It lithium in particular is an ingredient that is required in EV's and there is a tremendous amount of lithium especially in jurisdictions that are necessarily friendly. It is again, the broken record, we have to invest in order to facilitate the transition. We talk about not using oil, not using fossil seals, women invested appropriately or sufficiently in the alternative. I think you're starting to see that. We seen a number of EV companies talk with the tightness in cobalt or the tightness in lithium, the tightness will only amplify if we don't invest. We don't have the incentive to invest, you would have tight balances there and that's going to challenge the transition. The economics of using an EV vehicle relative to conventional are still not favourable even with government subsidies. You need to see more investment to reduce effectively the cost of substitution and it is not happening sufficiently. The increase in rates makes all the harder as well. >> Is not the challenge here in terms of changes in policy responses, the change to electrify community to get carbon under control want to avoid this from fossil fuels and want to get the EV, but you need to mine it. They're still an impact on the planet to choose one or choose the other. >> Yes it were coming out of. Where where coming out of mining for oil wasn't there. And today the economics of mining and economics of connection or better, but I've got this monkey on my back that is saying, you're going to invest in this and are we going to be using it five years from now? You meet with these energy companies and economics investing are great, but if the rhetoric is that we are not going to be using this stuff in five or 10 years, the incentive to invest is not that great. I think the market is wrong on this and I think we are one of using oil at a level that requires investment today, hopefully we see that investment. Locally what is happening in Europe wakes up the population to the reality that we still use this stuff. It will be great if we didn't, but the fact of the matter is that GDP still depends on oil we need to invest in it. >> Last question this one is from me, next time we see lithium, as this would mean? We'll get back to your questions and will miss time and as always, make sure you do your own research before making investment decisions and you can get in touch with us at any time. Give a question about investing what is driving the markets? Our guests or he could hear was on your mind so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at MoneyTalk live@td. com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. We will save one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk live. Anthony joining us now the state of the housing market in the country. And some interesting findings here, Anthony, share them with us. >> Canadian households will feel headwinds as interest rise start to hit this highly leveraged households they note that Canadians have added nearly $400 billion in mortgage debts since the end of 2019 and of course is lower mortgage rates of help contain this total debt payments. Now, they note that they're starting to see evidence of the impact of higher interest rates that are having on households and they know that the debt service ratio and that is the capacity of paying mortgage rates has jumped .3 vantage points in the second quarter and household leverage more vulnerable as cushioning lower rates in the pandemic fiscal transfers are a thing of the past now going forward. We break down the nature residential mortgages as we can see in this chart, variable rate loans are approximately 53% of all mortgage lending over the past 12 months and the share of five year fixed mortgages stands at 22% and that is down from 50% in the early stages of the pandemic. TD securities estimates that 52% of the residential mortgages are partially exposed to higher rates over the next 12 months. That includes nearly $490 billion of variable mortgages, most of which affect statements to thresholds in the 262 billion in fixed rate mortgages. TD securities also looks at the implications of rising rates, fixed-rate mortgages and the next chart, you see that TD securities is predicting that the renewal premium for five year fixed mortgages which is currently at 1.5%, that is set to climb higher if fixed mortgage rates hold at the current levels and is as mortgage rates were new this year and into 2024 or 2025, is mortgages carry a lower rate than those in 20 2022 and 2023. The implications for variable-rate mortgage boards and some are facing higher payments for loans and the trigger point, as others accrue more principal or add to the mortgage term. Now, the next chart that I have here, a lot of charts, this chart shows the difference between the variable-rate mortgages and total payments this shows us how far rates and before payments can come over certain. in the buffers around 3 1/4%, but after basis points state, that's just the variable loans will require higher payments for longer variable payments following the decision. In TD security says with extreme renewals plus the potential for higher variable rates of payments, they expect that the debt registration treat a new high by 2023. >>this will lead to a lot of Canadian households having an island where interest rates are. Word except 'neath five months or a year from now? >> GDP growth is expected to pose a minor correction to . 2% in the first quarter. This winter remained relatively unchanged in the second quarter. In terms of interest rates, expect the 4% turnover rate by the end of the year and currently receiving a 3 1/4, so expect a 75 basis point by the Bank of Canada. We GDP growth expected, and I also spent the Bank of Canada continue hiking rates into January of next year. However, economic growth or GDP is expected to fizzle in the first half of next year and expect the Bank of Canada to be pivoting and expect the Bank of Canada be cutting rates by the third quarter in the first half of 2023. >> Thanks Anthony, most economic markets and see how we are faring. A week down based on Wall Street, nothing too dramatic, we do have the to a sex down 4% and of course tomorrow is jobs Friday and on the data points that investors are watching pretty carefully these days in the end, as were talking about, trying to figure or central banks might be headed from here in these jumbo sized rate hikes that we've been getting and changing the landscape of cross housing, equities, bonds, you name it. Let's check in on shopify, nothing too dramatic at 4149 and if it down a little more than a percent. Thus impression engineering giant at 23.52, in South of the border, everyone trying to read the tea leaves for the health of the US economy, the health of the labour market and what the Fed might make of it all. It is a cyclic process big one, the job support and the S&P 500 down about half a percent. In tech heavy NASDAQ, early in the program it was a breakeven and notice and sliding, just a little bit lower as we've been chatting down 1/2 a percent as well. And indeed they are, Exxon, and Chevron is up as well to and there is excellent up 2%. Back now Hussein Allidina head of commodities and TD asset management and a question coming in it now on the platform. Once the Russia and Ukraine conflict is over, you see commodities rally coming from the rebuilding of Ukraine? >> I think you'll see a demand for material of the rebuild, but I don't think it is enough to list prices higher. Hurricane Ian is going to result in additional rebuild in Florida and parts of the Carolinas, all positive or demand, but I imagine the numbers are going to be smaller relative to global balance. >> With resolution of the conflict in Ukraine mean more for energy stability going forward, to see with the energy spaces for investors? >> I think will see this coming to the market, and the resolution of this conflict, not just energy, but energy grains such as Russian farmers and Ukrainian farmers are not planting the same amount of meat as they would be planting absent of this conflict. Russia and Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe, will deftly see some premium once the situation is resolved. >>on food security, what is your view on agriculture space? >> We think about corn and think about wheat, all those are tight on this basis, and I don't think we've seen the impact on the lack of fertilizer and increase of fertilizer prices and the impact that that can have on the yields of these commodities. US farmer in the Canadian farmer are far better capitalized some of their peers in emerging markets. I think the impact of higher natural gas prices which has resulted in reduced fertilizer production or shuttered fertilizer production in the case of Europe and by extension, an increase in fertilizer prices, I think that is yet to play through the grain balances and obviously, higher energy prices are very supportive for corn, bean and wheat prices and energy is important in the planting and harvesting of these crops. I think, again we are dependent on great weather in South America right now where next crops are being planted. Balances are tight. >> Were with the role of gold in a portfolio, what role should commodities play in the portfolio? >> The benefits of commodities primarily from a macro point of view, when you have inflation, equity fixed income tend not to perform so well the correlation between equities and fixed income can grow higher in environments where inflation is elevated. Commodities often time are the source of that inflation. So, the importance of having quantities and portfolio particularly in environments where you have above normal inflation is important. And then I think from a micro standpoint, Greg, I feel that the lack of investment that we've seen I think are on the precipice of a multiyear bull market for quantities and it is not necessarily because we see very robust demand growth, it is more supply challenge story, not dissimilar from what we saw in the late 70s and early 80s and different points on the 2000's. If we are right, Greg, increasing commodity prices because of supply constraints has very different and negative ramifications on growth and inflation when compared to increasing commodity prices because of demand growth. We are not saying that they're going to be remarkable demand growth and that's why commodity price move higher, worse and the demand will be average and the issues the supply side and that amplifies a need for commodities in portfolio construction. >> A final thought before you go, which said someone sent a question about China being a wildcard in all this, how should we view China when it comes to commodities? >> I several while the dissolute positive for demand, China comes back in the market will look at what is happening with refining in China and what is happening with their crew demand, there is some indication that they're coming back. Vehicle sales in China have improved remarkably and once it started lifting this in some rural areas and once we see Chana coming back comments constructive for commodities in the present time returning and if that doesn't happen as quickly as you like, will probably see some downside, but I think the risk reward is skewed to the upside of the China return. >> Always a fascinating conversation, great to have you here, Hussein. In tomorrow's show, we look at the most compelling stories of the week and it's the long weekend, make sure to tune in on Tuesday, it is Thanksgiving and then will have Scott Colbourne with us. As the managing Dir. of active fixed-income at TD asset management, we're talking about fixed income. No need to wait until next week to get those questions in. Email moneytalklive@td.com. That's all for our show today. Thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow! [music]