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[music] Hello I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk Live brought to you by TD Direct Investing. every day I'm joined by guests from across TD many of whom you'll only see here. We take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing. Today show: it's been a tough year for gold. Will get the outlook for precious metal with Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities. Billy take your questions on commodities overall. In today's WebBroker education segment, senior client education and Bryan Rogers is in a tell us how WebBroker can help you learn about technical analysis. And of course, it's a big week for the Bank of Canada. The rate hike is pretty much a certainty at this point. But how big will that be? The toxins calling is a preview on what some of the calls are. As I get in touch with us. Just email MoneyTalkLive@td.com or follow the viewer response box under the video player here on WebBroker. Before we get to our guest today, let's give you an update of the markets. A little bit indecisive. We'll start here at home on Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index. Feeling the weight of the price of oil today. down a little more than 1/10 of a percent, nothing too dramatic but a struggle for direction. Let's take a look at some of the energy names like Suncor. It is off the lows of the session from the last time I took a look. Down a little less than a full percent. Let's check on Cameco. About 1 1/3%. South of the border, this is where you are seeing a real indecision. The broader market as represented by the S&P 500. You want to be positive. It has flipped back in the positive territory 3937. About 1/3 of a percent. All the same concerns still persist heading into, heading firmly into the fall. We had our Labor Day weekend. We said goodbye to the Summer months. Now we still have to think about what the Fed will do next with the Bank of Canada. What they're going to do. Let's check on the NASDAQ. Tech stocks have been the sore point earlier in the session. But right now we are pretty much just flat. There is some green on the screen though. We'll call that a gain of three points at the moment. SNAP, of course at 10 bucks and $0.80 a share, still under some pressure almost 3%. And that's a market update. The price of gold has struggled this year thanks in part to the strength of the US dollar. And with the Fed poised to continue raising interest rates not to mention the possibility of a recession on the horizon, my next guest says the outlook for gold could be hardly described as promising. Daniel Ghali, Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities is here with us. Welcome. >> Thank you Greg. Likewise. >> What is at the top of your mind? >> I'm spending most of my mind gauging the outlook. Of course, we are probably in the most hawkish central bank regime since the 1980s. In turn, going forward, we are trying to gauge how the economic data will look and if it will ward under a change in policy. Here is what terrifies the academics out there: that we are seeing evidence of the persistent inflation. A persistence in inflation and an anchoring in inflation. Which means that not only inflation is broadening and impacting more and more goods and services that we purchase, but there's also evidence that inflation sensitivity to itself is rising. Higher inflation beginning. >> A vicious cycle there. The central banks definitely don't want to get into that kind of cycle. So Jackson Hole during the Summer… Always a big event for us. But sometimes you come at the other end and say "okay, you're telling me what Artie knew." I felt the same thing this time around. But everyone paid attention this time. What a nice Summer Rally and Jerome Powell says "listen, I told you there will be pain and we have to get inflation under control." It felt like he was really serious. >> Yes absolutely. And I think what you're really pointing to is a clash between what we have seen central banks do over the last 40 years, which is acting a countercyclical way which, we are seeing the Fed and other central banks battling inflation, with recession risks are rising in turn and the market is anticipating that a rate cut cycle would immediately follow the rate hiking cycle. Chairman Powell's speech was designed concisely at pricing out those market expectations and that has been done today. >> So in that environment for gold, the Fed like it is, chairman Powell holds on in the face of the pain that he said that is to come if we stay the course. What can we expect from gold? How much? >> Actually, there's an argument to be made that because the rate marks have now priced in this idea that the rate cut cycle is not going to mean… There's an argument being made out there that moving lower gold prices is fundamentally running out. I think that's missing or rather has one major caveat. Historically, looking through past hiking cycles, there is a point at which rates are elevated enough that they are now restrictive. Or higher than what economists call the "natural rate of interest". We are poised to meet that rated to remain above it for a sustained period of time. Despite the rising recession. In that environment, gold prices tend to dramatically underperform the other part of a rate hiking cycle were rates have not yet at that threshold. So I think most of the pain is still ahead, even though rates market has, have already priced a sin. >> A fear of more pain ahead. Lower gold prices, raising the risk of a capitulation. . . How close are we to that happening? >> I think the market for that is drawing razor thin. We are looking at a potential break below the 16… For many market participants. This is a critical technical level. What's interesting about this potential break is that it could begin a capitulation event from this new cohort of investors and gold that we think are holding an extremely large, bloated and complacent position. > Let's dig into that. You said, when we were chatting earlier before you came on, that you were noticing sort of a different class of investor? A different sort of investor holding gold in traditionally? What are you saying out there? >> Absolutely. The commission of traders report has been analysed to death. And yet, most analysts are really missing one critical factor in that report which is the position from other reportable switches defined as funds of trading gold on behalf of themselves as opposed to money managers which trade gold on behalf of their clients, so this new report has now become the dominant speculative force and gold. Our analytics suggests that you have somewhat of 70 participants. These are family offices or proprietary trading shops that are holding extraordinarily large positions and gold here. If you dig in even further into that, it doesn't seem that their position is related to any inflationary… Or any fed narrative. In turn, that is drawing our conclusion that it's probably driven by complacent position that was accumulated earlier in the pandemic that has yet to filter out in the markets. >> So we take that factor which we are noticing the markets, this complacency… Fears of a capitulation event, in the morning on the train, I take a look through everything and see what moves. How will I do, as an observer, know that we have reached this capitulation? >> We could see gold prices fall significantly below value. Liquidity in global markets is really eroding. So if we see one cohort rush to the exit at the same time, we could probably see a very sharp move lower and gold before prices stabilize on a more fundamental basis. >> On the longer term, what to go right for gold? Longer than you up and I have existed on the planet, it was believed in that gold was a safe haven. What could go right long term? >> I think longer-term there's a very positive start for gold here which is the world has accumulated a massive amount of debt. So even though we are looking towards the next year to a Fed that will keep rates more elevated than they would otherwise be, despite rising recession risks, there's a point at which the Fed is going to pivot. And that's the point where you might want to own some gold. In particular because the typical diversified is that you have in the portfolio, your typical stock and bond portfolios are designed to offer some diversification. But over the last year, we seen in a higher inflationary environment, that's not necessarily the case. Both assets move in line with each other. So that's where gold can play a role in commodities can more broadly. >> Fascinating stuff. A great start the program today. We will get to your questions about commodity stocks with Daniel Ghali of TD Securities in the commodity space I should say. A reminder of course it can get in touch with us at any time. Just email us here, MoneyTalkLive@td.com or Philip the viewer response box here in WebBroker. Now let's get you updated. COVID lockdowns in China are helping keep oil prices and checked despite a modest production cut from OPEC and its partners. Crude rallied on the heels of the oil cartel cutting its output Target for October by 100,000 barrels a day. Although it's a relatively small move it was widely seen OPEC sending a signal. To markets, that's willing to support prices. That said, further COVID lockdowns in China are raising concerns about the healing of the global economy and the demand for crude oil in the coming months. It's multibillion-dollar deal in the American home in healthcare space, pharmacy chain CVS Health has agreed to by signify health for more than $8 billion in cash. The company says the acquisition as part of its strategy to provide service to customers their homes. Signify health as a new a new network of more than 10,000 clinicians across the United States. The companies expect their guild closed in the first half of next year pending approvals. Indigo Books and Music is getting a new Chief Executive Officer. The retail former Pres. Peter Ruis has been promoted to the top job. With founder and former CEO Heather Reisman has become executive chair. Indigo says Reisman will remain deeply involved in the business. Now we see fluctuations on Wall Street and south of the border, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ back into negative territory. We are back now with Daniel Ghali from TD Securities. Taking your questions about commodities. Our viewers saying we talk a lot about Gold but what about silver? >> Absolutely. I think silver and the other precious metals, palladium and platinum in particular, they have a really interesting outlook on the horizon. The reason is that, from their precious metal side, we are seeing a future in which a speculative appetite for all precious metals will be limited. What's little known about silver is a lot of its demand comes from the industrial side. Use in the auto sector. The outlook for both of those is particularly, not only will we see speculative appetite die down on the precious metal side of the equation but we are seeing industrial demand start to slow at a significant pace across the border for all commodities and that's hitting silver and platinum in particular. >> Interesting dynamic when you talk about platinum and palladium and silver having the sort of dual identity. Precious metals, industrial use, does that make it tougher to navigate as an investor when you try to think of what the drivers of these assets will be going forward? >> It could, absolutely. There are some periods of time where one side of the equation is battling the other side. But we are looking at the current environment, it's actually both sides pointing to the same direction. So that actually increases our conviction that prices are set to head lower. We have of you are now asking what your view is for copper? >> I say the same lens for copper. We are looking at the side of the equation that continues to decline. A little known fact about what happened to copper markets and all industrial metals over the last year has been that stockpiling was one of the major drivers that kept demand from falling despite sustained decline in Chinese economic growth. That today, that story is dead. So the demand for raw materials is far more in line with global economic growth which is deteriorating. But for copper, in particular, we are looking at the following three years as a period of time in which a lot of supply will actually come online. This is as a result of legacy projects, sanctioned in 2017 that are coming to fruition today. So in fact, that will lead to a situation where demand is subsiding in the near term and we see supply growth over the next three years in particular is quite elevated. >> Are it's a given that context, let's talk about the demand side of the equation. We hear a lot about the electrification of a lot of things. Things that have traditionally run off of fossil fuels. With the climb and commitments… Copper, pretty key in conducting electricity. Has that story changed in term of the needs for copper if truly the world is moving in this direction? >> Yeah. Absolutely. In the longer term, as we electrify our economy, the need for copper, aluminum, zinc and all industrial metals is actually going to rise substantially. If you think about it, an electric vehicle consumes about four times as much copper as it traditional internal combustion engine. The power generation as well. Solar or wind power projects will have seven times more copper than a cold based plant for example. So we are seeing, and the longer term, a huge need for more copper supply and the same is true for other industrial metals. >> Another question on the copper front, longer term if that's her scenario as we need more for electrification, do we have enough copper? Is there enough copper to be accessed all around the world? >> That's an interesting question because we are in a juxtaposition where in the next three years, we are seeing supply growth. And that's can be enough to meet demand according to our expectations. But further beyond that horizon, we are not seeing the type of capital expenditures that are going to secure our copper supply the longer term. In terms of all the available reserves of copper, it is possible that we extract and of copper. But we need to start this project today in order for them to come to completion we actually that copper. >> Fascinating stuff. Another question now, this one about oil. >> Again an interesting question here. What we see in oil is kind of a successive series of negative events that have kept prices from reaching the highs that many expected. On the first hand, we've seen rolling lockdowns in China which of suppressed Chinese demand for crude and as you know, those of the largest consumers on the planet. On the other side of the equation, we've actually seen prospect of an Iran Deal raised the prospect for supply. When it comes to oil, in particular, we are in a situation where we are running out of spare capacity. But if an Iran Deal were to be signed, that would change his story. Because they would supply the world with enough oil in the near term for other producers to be able to play catch up on the supply side. That's really what's driven prices lower over the near term. Now, looking forward, it seems like the odds of a successful Iran Deal bar… That removes a huge caveat that is suppressed oil prices over the last few months. It also seems that longer term, oil demand is not at risk for the next 10 years. So we do see a situation where the supercycle narrative of oil is still out. >> The newscasters are telling the audience of course that while we are having our long weekend, OPEC was seen as sort of a symbolic, 100,000 barrels a day holding back in the production forecast for October without a huge move but this idea that a lot of producers, are they trying to send a signal to the market? Particularly to Saudi Arabia? They want $90 crude to keep it $90? >> They absolutely do have the power. They are today swing producers. So OPEC is really supplying a large share of the world's oil consumption today. So they absolutely do have the power. I think, to your point, it was absolutely symbolic move. The 100,000 barrels a day really isn't all that meaningful for oil markets but it does send a signal that if an Iran Deal does come to fruition, you have the OPEC that has been revived. That's really what traders refer to that OPEC will continue to keep prices elevated. Although were looking at a situation where spare capacity is drawing to critically low levels here. >> We take it back to our side of the world, south of the border, Pres. Biden realizes that energy costs are pretty potent political issues. Heading into the midterms. The Biden administration is doing all it can to try to lean on producers on the other side of the world and to tap the strategic reserves… Do Americans have much less of their playbook left in the face of all these global macro consumers? >> I don't think they do have much more than they can do. They have already been deploying the strategic reserves that are tremendous pace. That's about to come to an end and by October, the state of the US strategic reserves is going to be at its lowest levels since the 1980s. So there's really not that much more. Not much more time that they can continue to sustain that. >> Fascinating stuff as always. Make sure to do your own research before you make investment decisions. We'll get back to your questions with Daniel Ghali and commodities in just a moment's time. Reminding you get get in touch with us any time by emailing MoneyTalkLive@td.com. Now let's get to her education segment of the day. One of the great tools you can use in analysing a performance of a stock's technical analysis. When you use the WebBroker platform to learn more about it work very well. Senior client education and Bryan Rogers is here with more. Bryan if you want to learn more about technical analysis, where they go? >> Thanks Greg. We all hear the fact that you should understand what the trend is on stock. A lot of people hear about "technical analysis". But they have no idea where to start. I don't know if you're like me at all Greg, if you went online and you look for a book, I actually did this, I ordered a giant book about technical analysis and if you have a bad case of insomnia, it's a good thing. But otherwise I would recommend it. It's just a little too complicated. Alternatively, what you could do, you can jump into WebBroker. We can actually pull it up on the screen here. We do have some tools and some education that's available for those beginning. It's really powerful to because you can get some trends and pick up some things bit by bit. You can actually do some education years well. As you can see, the way I did this, for those of you wanting to follow along, you've got "research". Then you can click on "technicals" on the market column. I'll open it up again for everyone. You'll see at the bottom, there's a company called trading central that actually provides all of this three of charge for all of our direct investing clients. You can see this at the bottom. On the surface, this is the homepage where you can see any recently viewed technical analysis. You have "most viewed" by others using this tools and direct investing and you can see what they're looking at. He is most popular and so on. Anyone of these you can click on. Once you click on any of these you can get a next explanation. This is coming from trading central and you can see all of their insights. Over particular days, you can scroll down and see more information. But if there's a most recent one, a short term… You can click on this and then read more and say "what is this tell me?" What is it? It's telling me that trading is stretched and prices could be turned around, you can continue to read more and more and click on "learn more" let's close this really quickly. You can actually go to right were we just were directly. I know this is like back-to-school time for a lot of people right now after this weekend. Even yourself, if you want to go back to school, click on this little graduation. You can see classic patterns, short-term indicators and oscillators and things like that. So if you click on any of these, for example, we just saw one. You can see what it is at the top of the key thing we really want to know is "how do I use it"? This can show you how to actually look and apply it to your trading. >> Lots of key information there. When it comes to technical analysis, from my camp, I say "look at bounced off its 50 day moving average". That's about all for me. Anything else to do on WebBroker to bone up on all this stuff? > Great question Greg. You do have the Learning Center that we always recommend people go to for whatever the looking for. So if you go to the "learn " tab, you can find videos and lessons. You can find them. There's a little bit of digging your to do and some of this stuff but you can filter by certain things to her as well. What I'd recommend doing is, this is something that, I don't know if we actually went over this in our educational segment but I'll do today, you can actually click on this section right here, "search video lessons". Not only short videos but even webinars that we've done. You can type in the word. If you type in "technical analysis", there's a number of different things. There's actually an entire segment that we do in webinars, archives and there's a five segment series on just technical analysis kind of from beginning to a little more advanced we can watch those videos about 30 or 40 minutes long. You can see… Part one of five, part two might be stuck down here for some reason. Part two, part three and then there's other little videos. Common ways to research company… Screeners, so basically everything you can look at. Just do that certain it will take you right to that item and WebBroker. >> My boys are back in school and if I asked them if they have any homework to do they can fire back and say "don't you have some reading to do in WebBroker?" >> Thanks a lot Bryan. >> Thank you. >> Bryan Rogers senior education instructor TD Direct Investing. Check out WebBroker for more educational videos and some upcoming webinars. Before we get back your questions, a reminder of how you can get in touch with us. Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind. So send us your questions. There are two ways to get in touch with us: you can send us an email any time, MoneyTalk Live and td.com. Or use the question box below your screen on WebBroker. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the question you need right here in MoneyTalk Live. We are back now with Daniel Ghali take your questions about commodities. One of you are saying "I can see the EV market is changing the metals market a lot, where the opportunities question mark" > Right, and I would say even more broadly that that decarbonization efforts that we have impact commodities in a few different ways. The first implication of the decarbonization effort is what we've called the "game changer sector" that is to say the segments of the economy there inextricably linked to electrification. Things like power generation, renewables and electric vehicles and so on and so forth. When we think a little more on the horizon, we see agree unification of commodities as the next direct application. Greenification. Some commodities will see a massive amount more in demand. Copper is one of those metals in particular. When looking often horizon, electrification is going to translate into a substantial increase in demand in these commodities. > I think even batteries themselves of these vehicles, quite complex in terms of even what is going into them. What needs to go into these batteries? >> That's right. That touches upon some of the constraints, actually, in reaching the ambitious Target that the world has set forth in terms of EV sales. On one aspect, the electrification has reached mass adoption. This is something the world is looking for. On the other hand, the challenges in achieving those targets, we are going to have to mine a lot of these modifications. >> One you are asking what is your Outlook for industrial metals? They have used in the real world but concerns with the economy… >> Yeah. Absolutely. That's one of the major forces driving industrial metals. But we look at it more specifically, I think it's important that, from this juncture, we start to discuss whether or not these industrial metals are energy intensive or not. And so, we talked on the outlook for copper. Intensive metals out there, but when we are talking about aluminum or zinc, we do see supply risks on the horizon in the near term. That translates back to the energy crisis in Europe. Which of course, because the Europeans are seeing gas prices soar and power prices more broadly soar, these energy intensive industries are probably going to see rationing. There to be one of the first industries to see output cuts over the course of this winter. >> When I think to about the demand going forward for electrification or industrial metals, the economy moves in cycles. At some point will be enjoying some boom times again. Hopefully sooner rather than later. You talked about mining investment. To make sure we have the materials we need. Is this a political effort or a corporate private sector effort? Who says "if this is the future to live in and we need to mine these metals?…" >> We need prices to rise in order to incentivize these firms to invest. One of the trends that we've seen over the last few years has been that carbon intensive industries have seen lower reinvestment ratios. What that means world is actually disincentivizing these projects. >> Another question, Europe seems to need a lot of LNG. Has Canada missed the LNG boat? >> Another interesting question. I think there's an argument to be made there. Few people know that Canada actually doesn't have an LNG export term right now. But there are, I believe, 18 projects that have been proposed. So it's something that the industry here in Canada is looking for. The other side of that argument, which I think is missed, has been revealed by the last few months. And what's been going on in Europe. Of course, with all that has been happening, we have seen an uptick in the number of long-term contracts for LNG rising across the world. Actually primarily driven by Asia. Portfolio companies. What's interesting here is that although these LNG export terminal facilities might take five years to build until people are thinking that we might miss the boat, but if you take longer-term perspective look, you notice that we are seeing the industry worldwide starting to acknowledge natural gas is going to play a critical role in the energy transition. There probably still is a role that can play here by investing in these facilities and selling that cargo on a spot basis going forward. What I think that will address is that companies that are looking towards the energy transition might, in Europe in particular, might not want to take on a long-term contract but could see the need for friendly countries to fill the gap in the near future. >> We are seeing some dire headlines in Europe in the near future asking people to scale back on energy use. Warning it will be a pretty tough winter. They have enough natural gas to get them through? >> To scale things back a little bit and Zoom out, it's really interesting because we should remember that Russia actually started cutting their gas exports to Europe prior to the war in Ukraine. To put an order of magnitude and perspective, the gas flows that Europe would typically import from Russia over the course of winter are going into about 20% of the entire winter consumption. So that's a large amount of gas that needs to be replaced. Notwithstanding, over the last few months, Europe is actually been really successful in building inventories. They are now near where they should be. To survive the winter. If were going to see average temperatures and I think that's a big risk here. >> Indeed. Always heading into winter, you're never quite sure what you're getting at. Will get back to your questions with Daniel Ghali in just a moment's time of TD Securities. Always make sure you do your own research before making investment decisions. Here's a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time by emailing us, MoneyTalkLive@td.com. Or use the question box at the bottom of your screen in WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit "send". We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. the Bank of Canada has a big meeting tomorrow and the big question if it will be… Anthony Okolie joins us. >> TD Securities is predicting the Bank of Canada will hike rates 75 basis points. They also expect another 25 Basis Point Rate Hike in October with the terminal rate of about three not present. Now, that rate is currently below market which is pricing at a rate of approximately 3.9%. Now, although inflation is below the recent Bank of Canada forecast, it's still a concern for the Bank of Canada. TD Securities says that currently, nearly 60% of the CPI components are still running above percent. So, TD Securities doesn't see an advantage to the Bank of Canada taking a slower approach to restrictive monetary policy. In fact, they said hiking, if the bike if the bank of Canada were to hike just 50 basis points on September 7, that may actually be a riskier move for the make of Canada as opposed to hiking 75 basis points or even 100 basis points. So falling short of market expectations could actually be interpreted by the market as a signal to the Bank of Canada is unwilling to fully commit to fighting inflation. Now, that would also erode the central bank's credibility as an inflation fighter. So any move upwards in inflation excitations going forward would make the Bank of Canada's job much more difficult in the long run. So TD Securities expects the pace of tiding will slow in October. However, that may apply some moderation by the Bank of Canada's forward-looking language in their communiqué. Greg. >> Anthony we've had many stern warnings over the last few months. We feel we know it there to do next. Any wildcards that can enter the equation? >> I think the wildcard is the Bank of Canada survey. The survey of consumer expectations. As well as business expectations. Now, that survey doesn't actually come out until October 17. But the Bank of Canada will actually get a preview of that report. That report does show a sharp uptick in inflation excitations, potentially get to the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates 100 basis points. If there is a sharp downwards down take in inflation excitations, that could mean that the Bank of Canada could slow the pace of interest rate hikes going forward. >> Before letting go, Jerome Powell has made it clear to Americans that there will be some pain. The path we are on it and the constant pain. Your training and inflation under control. By raising the cost of borrowing on households… I mean at some point, there will be some impact there as well? >> You mentioned it. Currently the housing market is being impacted. Already taking a hit from high interest rates. TD Securities believes that as the rates continue to hike, it will inflict more pain in the housing sector. They do ask the fact that the rising household cost will push into negative territory. >> Money talks Anthony Okolie. Thank you. Let's check in on the markets right now. More than halfway through the lunchtime trading session. Will start at home on baster with the TSX Composite Index. A bit of a choppy start. Now down half a percent on Bay Street. About 97 points. We are seeing some weakness in energy names. Let's check on Cenovus Energy. Down to the tune of about 1.6% or 24, 46. Earlier today, somebody was moving into uranium. China made the world's energy needs. We have overtures from Japan on that front as well. So check in on Denison Mines. Another uranium player and a buck 80 a share almost 3%. South of the border, the S&P 500, 3009 and 14, down a pretty modest 10 points. About 1/4 of a percent. Some of the tech stocks getting hit earlier in the session. Of course, always concerns about where the US Federal Reserve is headed and how stern negatively and for how long. When it comes to monetary policy. You have the NASDAQ losing some ground, down about 47 points, less than half a percent. And Bank of America, Wall Street money centred Bank. Back now is Daniel Ghali from TD Securities, taking questions about commodities. I touched on this a little bit but maybe we can do a bit of a deeper dive. We mention Iran. This nuclear deal. A viewer says it seems unlikely to happen to this point. What impact will that have on the energy space? >> Just a few weeks ago it actually seemed like a deal was imminent. At that point in time, we raised concerns that even if the deal were to be achieved, there's a lot of legal ramifications that are not clear. Can you pass through Congress? Does it need to pass through Congress? Can the Biden administration find a way to skirted and so on and so forth. But realistically, we are looking at global oil markets here, were in a situation where the capacity has eroded. Even if we enter into recession, bargain extraordinarily hard landing, we will probably see will demand continue to grow. Albeit at a slower pace. What that means is we will continue to erode what little we have of spare capacity. The Iran Deal could've helped on that equation. But indeed, if it doesn't materialize in the coming months, then it looks like that can be our base, our best case scenario which could translate to higher prices over the next year. >> Interesting stuff. Another question. Bitcoin was often described as a new gold. That obviously didn't happen. Any lasting impacts on gold? >> We think there's a strong argument to be made that bitcoin attracted new investors into the alternative assets space. Bitcoin has not been performing as many had anticipated. So going forward could we see a shift in capital move away from bitcoin and now towards gold? I think that's probably a stronger response. >> Interesting too and we talk about haven assets. If you have a strong US dollar, that can be bad for gold but they are both considered to be haven assets in these times as well. So sort of punching and gold right now… >> Yes the stronger US dollar also relates back to the fed expectations. You really have a few very potent macro forces that are actually drawing all asset classes. >> China, we talk about this earlier. When it comes to commodities. What is the outlook for Chinese demand for commodities? Are the COVID-19 controls impacting things? >> The COVID-19 controls are absolutely constrained. The Chinese economic performance has actually been pretty decimal. We are looking at potential for below 3% economic growth which, for China, is actually recessionary terms. So the government knowing that, have started to stimulate the economy in a meaningful way. So we are looking out over the next year is the potential for domestic demand to firm. But what's not yet clear is what domestic demand in China will be firm enough to offset the global pressures that are still slowing. So that is really where the point of contention is here for industrial metals over the next year. >> Chinese economic growth, as well as the heart of it. COVID lockdowns don't help on that front obviously. Is there anything murky, just trying to read with what's happening in terms of the economy. The property market now in China… Whether that property boom is actually real or not Russian Mark >> Over the last year we've seen property sales and property completions plummet. One interesting caveat there is that, over the last month, we've actually seen the steel PMI's. Typically seen as a leading indicator for growth. Rising significantly. So that raises the question as to whether the stimulus in China which has been extremely infrastructure heavy and commodity intense. Starting to filter through into metals demand. We are also seeing a tracking of positions within China. We are seeing substantial increase in copper, aluminum and zinc position. So that tells us that it is possible that domestic adjustments in China are starting to see a turn. But will we look further and take a birds eye view here, they're still not a convincing sign that the property market has bombed. And that's really the big driver for industrial metals and for many other quantities as well. >> Okay we are out of time for questions almost but want to squeeze in one more. A viewer wants your thoughts about the future of investing in energy. Are these complementary forces or is there a bit of tension there? >> I guess we touched upon this a little earlier. That has to do with the implications of the electrification and of D carbon icing our economy. We we call that oil of foregone essential. We are looking at a future where the industry will naturally constrain its supply growth to such an extent that demand is going to slow at a faster pace than supply. So or rather supply will slow at a faster pace than the man. A colt like analogue where we can see higher prices and demand subsiding. >> Fascinating stuff. Daniel Ghali. Senior Commodity Strategist at TD Securities. Pleasure to have you today. >> Thank you. >> Stay tuned tomorrow, a bit of a reaction to that Bank of Canada decision. TD Senior Economist Leslie Preston will be here tomorrow. A reminder of course they can get ahead by sending us those questions at moneytalklive@td.com.that's all the time we have thanks for joining us. [music]