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[music] >>Hello I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing. Every day I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you will only see here. We will take you through its moving markets and answer your questions about investing. Coming up on today's show, we will discuss whether January's cooler than expected inflation report is moving us any closer to some rate cuts for the Bank of Canada. With TD with TD Securities Robert Both joining us. MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie will have a look at the health and small business in the US and in today's WebBroker education segment , Caitlin Cormier will join us. And here's how you can get in touch with us. … Before we get to work yesterday let's get you an update on the markets of course coming back from a long weekend so are the Americans, they were off yesterday for Pres.'s day so I see with the trade looks like. 21,257 we are basically flat on the TSX Composite Index. A whopping 1.5 of a point or just a tick among some of the most actively traded names today, a name we don't talk about a lot of the program, Dundee precious metals although it is in the top five in terms of volume. The miners saying ^...¸we have Dundee moving on a fairly strong volume at eight bucks and $0.70 a share almost 6%. Also some of the gold names getting a bit today including Ken Ross, let's check in on that one. A little off the highs of the session but still hanging in there at six bucks and $0.88 a share. Now south of the border, it's interesting. The tech names, particularly the chick maker is particularly Nvidia after the bells tomorrow. We have some caution out there on the market today give the S&P 500 on 36 points, around three quarters of a percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ getting it a little bit harder to start the short training week south of the border down one of 1/4%. It will be interesting after the close yesterday, we can't go back in time but we can go forward to tomorrow and look forward to Nvidia earnings after the closing bells. And Visio Corp. When we don't talk about a lot but Walmart is buying them. They are a TV maker. We'll tell you later about why Walmart wants them but at 10 bucks and $0.95 a share, that stock is up almost 15%. And that's a market update. Canadian consumer price pressures eased more than expected in January as motorists were paying less of the pumps. And so with headline inflation now below 3%, does that bring us any closer to the Bank of Canada rate cuts to mark joining us now to discuss his Robert Both, Senior macro strategist at TD Securities. Welcome to the program. > My pleasure to be back right. >> Is one of those reports of the bag again is awaiting to see. Perhaps market watchers and inflation watchers of and waiting to see inflation below 3%. Take us through the report and what you felt was interesting. >> Yeah so we've been looking for inflation to fall from 3.4% to 3. 2%. The market was looking for an even smaller drop to 3. 3. At 2. 9 very, this is a pretty material surprise this we generally don't see inflation by may be 1/10, 2/10, beyond what markets are expecting. So the biggest take away from us was just the magnitude of the surprise. As you say, you know, inflation is back inside that one to 3% target range. That is the sweet spot the Bank of Canada is looking for. But there really looking for 2%. So were not quite there yet. There were a few larger moves that helped drive the deceleration so airfares can be quite volatile but those held by nearly 25% month over month. We also saw a pretty large drag from things like travel services or hotels you know, things like clothing and household appliances. Those are discretionary spending items. So this does speak to the pressure that Canadian households are feeling a squeeze on budgets. Starting to translate to reduced inflation pressures. But there are some positives as well for those that might not spend as much on discretionary items. Food prices, still rising by 01.1 percent month over month. That's a much smaller increase that we saw last year. So food inflation actually fell by quite a lot and is now at 3.9% instead of five. So we are moving in the right direction. But we are not quite there yet. >> Let's talk about looking out of the herd. Obviously we broke down some of the segments for the audience the report but some people say it's all good and well, they had lightly headline inflation is below 3%. What about some of the core measures of the Bank of Canada watchers? Some of those appear to be moving in the right direction as well. >> Yeah so the Bank of Canada does have tools to look past the volatility and headline inflation but those core measures, those move lower as well. So the tune the Bank of Canada looks most closely to her the trimmed weighted median. Those are now running around 3. 3%. You know, that's down from about 3. 6% last month. Still above that target range, the Bank of Canada has also been pretty focused on where the three-month rates of core inflation are going or just those moving higher and pushing core inflation higher or those starting to signal more momentum to the downside. Those three-month rates of core inflation did fall as well. They are running at about 3.2%. So that does give us a little more confidence that that momentum is starting to break lower. >> A big part of the reason of course that we are paying less of the pumps compared to the same time last year in January. The same time, we do know when it comes to gasoline, when it comes to crude and when it comes to geopolitical stress, this could be a volatile category. Could this be a wildcard going forward? Depending on what happens to the price of crude. >> Certainly. So oil prices can be quite volatile, as you mentioned. They are not just affected by demand-side but supply-side factors as well. So geopolitical events can have a material impact on global supplies. You know, going out beyond the next couple of months, we do expect oil prices to US oil prices, to stay in that $82-$84 range over the second half of 2024. That's a little bit higher than where they are right now but you know, we are not necessarily looking for those geopolitical risks to have a meaningful impact on crude oil prices. Those are simply risks to our base case. >> The Bank of Canada has another rate announcement I believe March 6. A couple weeks away. Another inflationary report now to put on their desk although we have heard from ^.. .¸repeatedly when he gets a chance to talk to us through the media rather devices the same he says to give it some time. Not talking about rate hikes around the table anymore but were talking about how long we need to stay at these levels. So you to get a report like this and take a look at the economy, how long are they at these levels? What can we expect from them? >> Headline inflation is back that one to 3% range of the Bank wants to see that 2%. So this does move the goalpost a little bit closer, you know, this is the first time we've seen inflation and that one to 3% range. Since last June. But as we saw last June, that tended to be a short-lived dip under that 3% limit. Now, we are going to need to see more evidence to reinforce that this is not another one of those short-lived dips. That this is a sustained return to the target range. So the Bank is gonna want to see, you know, more evidence evidence of deceleration and core inflation measures, you know, 3.3% it's a much lower than they were last month but those need to continue decelerating going forward. Likewise, we want to see that three-month rate of core inflation ideally much closer to the midpoint of the target range. So we are not there yet. Were still at 3.2%. A couple more months with similar data, we will be getting closer but we do you think there is, you know, going to require more evidence before the Bank of Canada is in a position to cut rates. We continue to look for that first rate cut in July. So from the Bank of Canada's perspective, you know, this is very welcome news. But their job isn't finished yet. >> So July pushes into the Summer in terms of reentering this year and some people thinking maybe spring. If you're saying July, now we are firmly of the Summer, after they finally do decide, we are confident we are getting closer to percent that will be sustained, were in a position to cut rates, how many more rate cuts can we expect on the heels of that? Will they go cautiously or say "mission accomplished? > We look for something in between. I think with the Bank of Canada's get proceed cautiously until the first rate cut back is to say that they are going to want to see that evidence that we are clearly on the track towards 2%. They are not going to declare mission accomplished at the first sign that the target is getting closer. So we think the Bank of Canada is going to approach the decision to cut rates cautiously. But once they are ready to ease off the brakes a little bit, and move policy closer to target, we do expect to cut by 25 basis points at every meeting over the back half of this year. Now, you know, those are smaller moves than we saw on the way out. As the Bank of Canada… >> All those baby steps on the way out. >> There were no baby steps. By moving in 25 basis points, increments on the way down, that's also, you know, a sign that the Bank is being more cautious. They don't want to just bring policy from tight levels to neutral levels in one fell swoop. They do want to move a little more gradually. So we think they get to 4% by the end of this year. And then we will probably see the pace of rate cuts slow down over 2025 as well. So instead of cutting by 25 basis points in every meeting, we think we will do one at rate cut recording. >> Interesting stuff and a great start to the program. We will get to your questions about the economy and interest rates with Robert Both in just a moment's time. A reminder that you get intentional as any time by emailing moneytalklive@td. com or fell at the viewer response box out of the video player and WebBroker. Right now let's get you updated on some of the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading. Shares of Home Depot in the spotlight, home-improvement giants retailer providing a tepid sales forecast expecting topline growth of just 1% this year. Home Depot says shifting consumer spending habits and high borrowing cost of the wing are waiting on demand for big-budget rhinos. I've been through a few renovations in the past couple of deer it is. I also want to check in on the US financial services sector. A multibillion-dollar takeover. Capital one plans to buy credit card issuer discover financial credit services in an all stock deal valued at some $35 billion. The deal which requires regulatory approval but if it went through, it would create the sixth largest US Bank by assets. You see discover up almost 15%. Let's say a bit more about Walmart. Making an acquisition as well, buying TV maker Visio for $2.3 billion. The deal is aimed at boosting the retailer's media business. Walmart connect, Visio's operating system include streaming content, which Walmart sees as an advertising opportunity. a week start off the start of the week. The S&P 500 and 44 points and will call that almost a full percent. We are back with Robert Both taking your questions about the economy and interest rates. Let's get to the first one here. Can we get your take on what volatile commodity prices are doing to Canada's economy? any sharp increases know to be something that supports Canadian growth. That you know, has a positive knock on effect to Canadian inflation. So in a world of, you know, more volatile commodity prices, there are upsides and downside risks to Canadian activities from those. You know, we kind of addressed some of the geopolitical risks in the opening chat but you know, certainly any squeeze on global energy supplies is something that would have a material impact to the Canadian economy. Especially, you know, out west where there is a larger concentration of energy production cross across each province. So we certainly saw that in 2021 and 2022 when oil prices spiked to the upside. That was something that had a significant impact on the economic outlook for Alberta. Even without the traditional linkages between prices and investment, it was still a very powerful driver for energy exports. For employment. And for provincial finances as well. You know, Alberta went a very long period without issuing debt. So those are some of the ways that more volatile energy prices can impact the Canadian economy but certainly, as an energy exporter, that is something we look at very closely. >> That's part of the economic mix in this country compared to a decade ago or 20 years ago. Is it still as big of a driver? Does it take up less of that sort of economic pot? >> It has taken up less of the economic pie in recent years. Coming out of 2013, 2014, you saw both oil prices and non-injury investment fall very sharply. After that. . Now when prices bounce back the investment flows never really did some, you know the energy sector makes up a much smaller share of nonenergy, nonbusiness investment. Residential investment. But it is still, you know, an important driver of the economy it's just, those higher prices have not been the boom for investment that they once were. >> Interesting stuff there about the energy sector. We have one about politics. Knowing how you view the potential impact of the US election of the Canadian economy. I guess that's one of the big depends questions. >> It does depend on one of the key questions for 2024. You know, it's hard to believe that we are still 8 to 9 months out from the election in early November. >> It's always been hearing about for months and months and months yeah. >> For sure. We still don't necessarily know who both candidates will be. Until the conventions the Summer. So I expect it's going to be a very noisy. A very noisy time for US politics over the next eight or nine months but our job will be to block out most that noise and focus on the economic policies that are going to have more of a direct impact on Canada. So I think, you know, when we go back to that 2016 to 2020., One of the key issues for Canada during that first trump administration was just all the uncertainty over a global trade. You know, I think it's rather unique as we head into 2024 that we have seen what the White House looks like with both of these administrations in place. So, there is a small element of comfort that, as we head into 2024, if we did have a return to a trump White House, presumably you would see less trade uncertainty if US MCA's are more stable footing. That renegotiation of NAFTA at the time was something that weighed heavily on nonresidential investments. Nobody is going to open a factory in Canada if they don't necessarily have access to the US market. That relative certainty is a term I will use… On international trade is something that gives us a little more comfort looking to 2024 and beyond. You know, likewise if you do see a return to a trump administration, you know, that's an administration it's going to have more of a focus on lower corporate tax rates. Possibly less focus on environmental regulations. Some of those are things that will filter into the Canadian needle outlook and that's what we will be focused on most directly as we head into that November vote. >> I think about the fact that we haven't talked about this on this program, obviously in Canada for a while about what the election will mean for us. It just shows how important the trading relationship is. You can go back, I mean the liberals up and empower for quite some time now, federally. But I can go back to the Harper government and there is a big push for not worrying about North or South so much but rather looking east and west of Canada's economy but at the end, trading partners, it boils down to America being our largest partner. >> It's very difficult to respect escape the gravitational pull. Diversifying our training partners has been a priority across this government and previous governments. But it's always become very difficult to really meaningfully grow that share of known US exports rated and, you know, as you seen over the last 3 to 5 years, you know, you can try to pave it to different parts of the world you know, there is no guarantee that those relationships with other trading partners will hold up over time as well. >> Interesting stuff. Another question now back on interest rate policies. I'm getting this question a lot because I guess the timelines get pushed out from the spring into the Summer. Some people are worrying and perhaps wondering interest-rate cuts this year. Are they unrealistic? What if we go through a whole year without getting an interest rate cut? >> If we go through the whole year without an interest rate cut than something is either gone very right are very wrong depending on your perspective. You know, if you are kinda focused on the growth factor that is going to continue pushing interest-rate cuts beyond 2024, it's certainly expecting a stronger outlook if the Bank of Canada is going to hold off. But you can also be looking at a scenario where inflation pressures prove more persistent as well. And that introduces material risks as we get into 2025. Because, we know from the schedule of fixed rate mortgage renewals that those resets next year are going to be much larger. There is a larger portion of post pandemic loans that are set to renew next year. So, if we enter 2025 with interest rates near current levels in mortgage rates near current levels, those borders are to see a larger jumping jump in payments and the ones renewed in 2023. And will renew in 2024. That is something that will introduce much larger downside risks to growth in 2025. But I would simply say that that scenario looks a little bit less likely after this morning's inflation report which did show that progress with headline inflation back in that target range with that softer pressure across core inflation measures. That is something that reduces the likelihood that the Bank of Canada is going to keep rates at current levels through the whole year. So I would say that interest-rate cuts are not unrealistic. >> And at the same time it's just February right? I know we had expectations heading in and we are only six or seven weeks into the year and expectations will shift. >> Correct yet. And you know, like I think it is a different question, US has not seem to say seen the same extent of slowing of the real economy, you know, inflation pressures might be proving a little more persistent in Canada up until this morning's report. But you know, we have seen that material weakness come through with the growth side. You know, the economy contracted in the third quarter, the unemployment rate is about 0.8% points higher than the post pandemic lows. And if you contrast that to the US, there has been far less evidence of restrictive monetary policy having a significant impact on US growth. > Interesting stuff as always. Home to make at home make sure you do your own research before making investment decisions. We will get back with your questions for Robert Both. Tax season is just around the corner. Caitlin Cormier has this look where we can find tax forms on WebBroker. >> Good day we are going to look at the different tax information available for you as an investor within the WebBroker platform. So without further ado let's go ahead and hop into the platform. So where we can actually find some information about important dates, we will come up here in the top bar here under "accounts" were to scroll across over to self-service and we are to click on the "tax information Centre" that's can open up a separate page. There's a whole bunch of information here about taxes, lots of different questions and different categories here that you can review if you have any questions about anything to do with taxes. As well as the first link here up on the top left-hand side under filing taxes. If you click there, you're able to see the important dates. So these are the dates that you would need to know about when you need to file as well as when you can expect these documents to come in the mail. So if you are looking for certain documents, feel free to come to this page so you can figure out when you can expect those documents coming to you in the mail. Back into WebBroker, we are also actually able to, prior to getting these documents, see a bit of information about what sort of returns we may have had during the year. So in order to see that, and that it click on accounts again but I'm going to come down here to "gains and losses". So this is not an actual tax document. This is just for information purposes only. You will eventually get your tax document. However if you did want to get an idea of what sort of returns you received during the previous year, you can come here to do that. So, we can either separate this by investment or by transaction, we can choose whichever account would like to see this information on, so registered or not registered. We can choose the types of security that we are looking for to get the information on. We can choose date range. So for example, if we want last year for taxes, we can choose that. And it will actually show us a review appear at the top about what kind of those totals are and as we scroll down, it's going to show us the individual transactions. If I click by transaction instead of investment it will actually show me the dates that I have these types of transactions that I can get even a little bit more detail here on those. So these are some great places to start when you're kind of doing some tax planning this time of year. Hop onto WebBroker and check out our gains and losses as well as our tax Centre to help you efficiently file your taxes this year. >> That was Caitlin Cormier, Client Education Instructor with TD Direct Investing. Make sure to check of the Learning Center and WebBroker for more educational videos, live interactive master classes and upcoming webinars. Now before we get back to questions about interest rates in the economy for Robert Both, a reminder of how you can get in touch with us. Do you have a question about investing in what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind. So send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com. Or, you can use the question box right below this screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. >> We are back with Robert Both taking your questions about the economy and interest rates. We have a viewer asking other G7 Nations are in a recession. Will Canada follow? I think Japan and Britain were the latest to get on the list. >> It's a small club for now our base cases Canada will experience a soft landing and we don't think there will be a recession. That said, we are coming off a moderate contraction in about 1% annualized in the third quarter. We will get fourth-quarter data next week. You know, our assumption is that the data will show another modest expansion but one that is certainly well below the levels of potential growth. But, until we see that realized, there is going to be that risk. You know, that Q4 growth that was weaker than expected. You know, it's certainly plausible that we were in a recession over the second half of last year and we just didn't realize. So, we don't think that is going to be the case. We are treating that is a risk. And, you know, I would also just point out that we have seen moments and pick up a little bit over the back half of last year as well. So we've seen in the monthly data on economic activity, consumer spending, you know, you've certainly seen that in the monthly data for the housing market. And you've seen that in some of the sentiment measures as well with us looking at, you know, households and businesses. You know, they are not robust by any means but there has been a stabilization of Q4 starting to pick up in early 2024 as well. It is so, we can't close the door and recession risks. But it looks like, you know, we will have avoid one for the time being on you know, this is something that we've been discussing for nearly a year now. > Yeah where is the recession right? It's coming it's coming but where is it? >> It was the same story as the calendar turned from 2022 to 2023. There was a lot of discussion about recession risks at the end of, entering 2023 and you know, you've heard at the time that the Bank of Canada was ready to deposit rate hikes and see how the coming months played out. Now, as we look back with perfect hindsight, the Canadian economy bounced back over the second half of last year. The Bank of Canada delivered another 50 basis points of tightening. And the recession risk chatter died down for a period of six months. But, you know, we are going to be discussing this going forward and really, you know, if it weren't for an incredibly strong tail and from population growth, if you look at GDP on a per capita or per household basis, you know, it certainly looks like we are already in that slowdown now. >> I wanted to ask you about that. A lot of discussion was about if you take a look at our population growth but then you take a per capita, and you know, we are not growing. But in the end, the number you get is the number you get. Which reflects stable and robust immigration. But the argument that people feel poor. They don't feel like the economy is growing about what the headline number size. >> Right. It certainly is something that is been weighing on those sentiment measures for the last year. You know, the Bank of Canada doesn't turn a population growth, the Bank of Canada target gets inflation. But you know, that is certainly something that has been you know, really supporting those aggregate demand figures over the last year. It is something that is been at the forefront of discussion around inflation for the last year as well. So you know, it certainly has an impact at the aggregate level. So I think maybe we are getting too caught up in whether or not this is a hard landing or a soft landing. I think it's a little more helpful to look at this through the lens of irony in an environment of estimate where there is more demand for goods and services that our ability to supply or are we actually moving through that excess supply and we saw that change over the second half of last year. We are certainly saying that in labour markets with a higher unemployment rate, and I do think for them to move deeper into excess supply, going forward whether or not that recession materializes or we continue in a slow growth environment. >> On the question of the audience is one still at Canada's economy. More specifically about our debt levels. Should we be worried about household debt levels in this country? >> I think, you know, Canada has, you know, been quite resilient. The Canadian household sector. Despite high levels of household debt through the first two years of the Bank of Canada's hiking cycle. You know, household debt to income ratios were still North of 180% the last quarterly of data. That is going to be something that gets a lot of focus as you know, more more of those fixed-rate mortgages come up for renewal. I think about this scenario where I am more concerned about household debt levels going forward. If we are in that sort of sticky inflation environment or of growth accelerates over the middle part all of a sudden the Bank of Canada might not be in a position to cover. It's then you do see a much larger heads on those households that have to renew mortgages next year. I think that's where those concerns around household debt are a little more valid. But, you know, what we've seen from them will mortgage renewal channel in 2023 and what we expect for 2024, those have largely played out in line with the stress test we've been conducting for the last five or six years. So the stress test has been very you know, they worked very well and hindsight. But those were calibrated to 2% over your contract rate at the time. And you know, if we don't see those rate cuts materialize over the second half of 2024, were going to find out whether that 2% stress test was enough. So I think that's where the more interesting discussion around household debt levels materializes is if the Bank of Canada doesn't ease rates to the extent that it is currently anticipated. >> Interesting stuff. Another question again about Canada focus. When you look for the loonie? I assume it'll meet against the US box. >> Yes. Our view for the Canadian dollar is heavily predicated our view on the US dollar. And we do expect the US dollar to weaken over 2024. Mostly that reflects the Federal Reserve inching closer to rate cuts. We do expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in May of this year. So usually a little bit ahead of the BOC without, you know quite the same material weakness in the data. At least this far. So as the Fed does come into play over the second half of this year, we do expect that the US dollar will come off not just against CAD but the we I expect the US dollar against the euro sterling… That is to be something that pulls dollar cab lower. ^. ..¸Trading around 135 over the last couple of weeks, we think that is headed towards hundred 29 by the end of 2024 and we can see longer-term fair value around 125 which we think will get to by the end of 2025. You know, on a CAD USD bases, roughly $0. 74-$0. 78 by the end of 2024. Getting to $0.80 by the end of next year. >> You mentioned something there that I found intriguingly that the US is expected to cut rates before we do even though they are there economy is stronger, their label market is stronger, there inflation report last week indicated a bit of stickiness. What gives the Americans that position where they would cut before us even though many of our indicators were far weaker? >> Right so Jay Powell has kind of characterize this as a immaculate disinflation. But the notion that the Fed can, you know, cut before the BOC even without as much material economic weakness, it does rest on a few factors. One is that the Federal Reserve does have an explicit dual mandate. So they will put more weight on the growth outlook during their policy deliberations. All else he will. The second is that the US economy combined large, doesn't necessarily have many of those same structural factors that are keeping shelter inflation more persistent in Canada. So whether that senior housing market, or an outlook for stronger population growth, you know, this factors are present in the same magnitude as they are in Canada. And that should help inflation move from 3% to 2% a little bit closer. So as we get into that final stage in the fight against inflation, the US has a bit of a leg up there. And the last one is that you know, the US is expected to weaken over this year as well. So we do expect that the data will get worse in the US as the lengthy impact of tighter financial conditions catches up. You know, that is going to be something that materializes rather quickly. We expect that slowdown to hit around the middle of this year. But we think there is a little more scope with the US even to cut a softer growth environment than Canada. Whereas, you know, the BOC really is approaching this more cautiously. They want to see, you know, gross sharply or inflation your target. The Fed is expressed a comfort with perhaps moving a little earlier even if, you know, they haven't seen material weakness at. >> Interesting stuff. We'll get back to questions on Robert Both of the economy and interest rates in just a moment's time. As always make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions and a reminder of how you can get in touch with us. >> Do you have a question about investing or with driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch of us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com. Or, you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. We will see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. > Well >> Thanks Greg US optimism felt two points just under 90 Points in January. That's the largest drop since December 2022. Also coming in below expectations for mild improvement to just over 92 points and the drop comes after the index is first increase in 5 Months Back in December. Now, the latest reading marks the 25th consecutive month of worsening mood amongst small businesses in the United States with optimism below its 50 year average of 98 points. Now, some of the key findings. Small business confidence starting to gain on a week or no thanks will pull back and earnings trends. The vagary negative shift and expectations regarding higher real sales. When we break it up by subcomponents, six out of the 10 sub-groups fell in January, only to improved and to state unchanged. Specifically, the biggest decline was led by expectations for higher sort of real sales which was down 12 points to 16%. In addition, the shared businesses plan to boost employment, that was down two points for the second month in a row. And that's also down five points versus its pre-pandemic level. It's also the lowest level since late 2016. Now, the share firms with unfulfilled positions dipped slightly in January to 39%. Quality of labour concerns, that shows just one point with 21% of business orders identifying this as their top business problem. Now, inflation concerns, that came in second place among small businesses in the United States. Probably 1 to 20%. The survey results came prior to the latest US CPD I data which showed that inflation while moving in the right direction, remains stubbornly high. Indicating that businesses and consumers continue to feel a page from higher prices. Meanwhile, the share firms hiking compensation that was up three points. While the share firms planning to raise compensation moved in the opposite direction. Came down three points. When we look at those businesses looking to raise average selling prices, that came down as well. During the month. But the share firms planning price hikes in the next few months, that continue to trend in the opposite direction. That was up just a point to 33%. Now, TD Economics says that businesses are making adjustments in response to challenges with labour market indicators showing that they are planning to slow hiring. But this appears to be driven by their inability to find enough workers, given that labour and quality concerns are identified as a top business problem that firms have continue to raise compensation in order to attract and retain talent. Greg? >> Now small businesses in the United States feeling this way about the economy and their prospects and they make up a big part of the economy and the on employment seen south of the border. As a seven in place get them implication with the feds think? >> I think it certainly does. When you look at the share of businesses raising average selling prices, that has trended lower recently. In tune with a cool down inflation. The share of business is planning to raise prices ahead and has moved in the opposite direction. Now, after touching a cyclical low of 20% in April last year, this later indicator has generally trended higher holding elevated 33% at the start of this year. So, this continues to point to some upside risk for inflation in the months ahead. That's an element that leads in favour of a more patient fed when it comes to timing of rate cuts. >> Interesting stuff. Thanks Anthony. >> My pleasure. >> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie. Now for an update on the markets. >> Were having a look at TD's advanced dashboard, a platform designed for active traders is available through TD Direct Investing. This is the heat map function. Let's start with the TSX 60 encompassed reading by price and by volume. You can see the top line for the TSX it's been a bit of a flat session, a little bit to the downside. It's really a mixed bag up there if you take a look at what is moving and what is not moving. You have Shopify down the tune of almost 4%. US tech stocks are under pressure today. It's really mixed in the mining sector are First Quantum our tech to the downside like Eric of Kinross, gold miners modestly higher. Mixed in the financials as well. It's just that kind a day to start trading we can south of the border let's check on S&P 100. The chipmakers really standing out right now. You do have Nvidia reporting after the closing bills tomorrow. Of course the stock has been on a pretty big run. Trying to find the right word for it. Just use the word big, over the past year and 1/2 or so. A little bit of caution ahead of those earnings. Your schooling back about 6% Nvidia, AMD, also chipmaker down to the tune of more than 6% as well and Tesla, also taking a step back. Walmart standing out of course they have that deal to buy the TV maker, but also reporting the quarterly earnings. That stuck up more than 3% actually supporting the Dow in terms of some of the pressure that we are seeing across the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. But holding the Dow up a little bit. You have more information on TD advanced dashboard by visiting td. com/advanced dashboard. Back with Robert Both from TD Securities. Let's take some questions for the audience now. If you are wants to know if the worst is past for the housing market? >> So TD has been a little more bearish on the Canadian housing market. In the last quarterly forecast from TD Economics, which was published in mid-December, we were calling for house prices to decline by 3.2% on average in 2024. An rise by 4.8% in 2025. We did expect that those pullbacks would be a concentrated in areas that had experienced the most rapid growth. And seeing conditions swing the sharpest in the second half of 2023. So, you know, at the time, Ontario and British Columbia were seeing much weaker sales activities into the second half of last year. You know, the sales of new listings ratios in both those regions, were well below their long-term averages. But we have been quite surprised at the resiliency in home sales data over December or January specifically. You know, existing home sales across the country rose by about 9% in December and another 4% in January. So that rebound has been much quicker to materialize and anticipate. And that has, you know, brought those larger housing markets from more, oversold territorial to a more saturated area with lots of resale supply. That supply has been absorbed quite thoroughly with the sales of rebound in the Summer of January. So we haven't seen that translated to higher prices quite yet. But, you know, we are entering that period of spring housing to band over the next 48 weeks. That period of spring demand, they looked two months ago. It might be getting to the point where we can say the worst is behind us yet we cannot say the worst is behind us yet. Knock on wood… I don't know if we are they are quite yet but I certainly would say that the strength we've seen over the last couple of months does put us in a better position as we head into the spring and if demand does materialize, that is something that could introduce a little upside risk to crisis over the rest of 2024. >> Part of the economy to watch heading into the warmer weather which we Hope is around the corner. Robert, always a pleasure to have you look forward to the next time. >> Thanks Greg. >> Our thanks to Robert Both, Senior Client Education Instructor with TD Direct Investing. They always say trust the prompter until you can trust the prompter. That was Robert Both of TD Securities macro strategist. Thanks for joining us and as always be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Stay tuned for tomorrow's show, Juliana Faircloth, VP for Portfolio research with TD Asset Management will be our guest taking your questions about industrial stocks. Heavy equipment maker's aerial stocks, so that things like aerospace rails and heavy equipment makers. A reminder that you can get a head start by emailing moneytalklive@td.com. And before we go this was our 400th episode of MoneyTalk Live since we launched in June 2022. We like to thank you all for watching. Keep tuning in and setting all those great questions. That's all the time we have for today thanks for watching and take care. [music]