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[music] >>I've got gold prices jumping about 50 bucks an ounce I believe the last time I checked in on it so you are definitely seeing that move on a lot of gold names in Toronto. Baytex energy as well, you got crude oil, American benchmark, up about 4% today and then he got Baytex, you could've chosen any energy them, it's of about 4%.
No south of the border, of course geopolitical tensions, and I own inflation, there's a lot we will be discussing soon with our panelists.
You've got a 21 point deficit for the S&P 500, down about half a percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ, want to see how it's fearing against the broader market.
You are seeing some accelerating weakness now, down 120 points, almost a full percent.
It's the kickoff of bank earnings season south of the border, J.P. Morgan among them managing to hand in a beat.
At 150 bucks and change, you got JP Morgan up about 3 1/2%. And that's your market update.
There is no shortage of news for investor to digest this week from the terrible situation unfolding in Israel and Gaza, some commentary from Fed officials on the future direction of interest rates.
Joining it out to discuss, markets editor Anthony Okolie and Susan Prince, editor for MoneyTalk DIY.always great to have you on the program. We have to start on the piece that's been horrific from a humanitarian perspective and from a geopolitical's perspective we don't know what's next. Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
>> We are looking at terrible things happening.
For us looking around, what we are paying attention to is what the impacts are on the market.
If you look at this, you will see the TSX is up on the weak, unsurprising with energy stocks, but flat on the year. Up less than a percent on the year, S&P 500 up about 13% on the year, the Dow Jones is up on the weekend down on the year.
Taking a step back from what's happened over the past seven days and trying to get a wider perspective on it when you are looking at what this impact could have for your investments, retirement plan, that sort of thing.
>> I think the market is trying to work through it. Gold has moved higher coming out of the weekend. Some pullbacks. Crude moved higher.
Today we got gold and crude oil surging higher again heading into a weekend of really not knowing what's going to happen next.
I know we had some guests on and there were some insights into oil in particular but what the longer term, as you say Susan, day-to-day gyrations, longer-term what may happen.
>> We heard from Michael Craig earlier this week on an interview in MoneyTalk where he talks about the similarities to the conflict in Ukraine and the middle he is in that these are two regions that ship a lot of oil and he talks about scenarios that could transpire and potentially impact the price of oil. Take a listen.
>> I think oil in general will trade with a bit of a premium now because we have some degree of uncertainty now of what might transpire from here.
It might be a localized war or it might draw in other actors were you could see a material move in oil.
If it's localized, this probably is over in a few months, but if it spills over, then he got real problems and in that scenario, I think oil goes over 100, of $250 per barrel.
>> Of course in that interview Michael goes on to say that looking ahead, market performance would be more a function of domestic economies rather than a Middle East conflict. It is the US in a recession or moving towards that?
to watch the full interview, go to moneytalkgo.com.
>> We will hear from Hussein Allidina later in the program about his take on what the applications could be for the global energy markets. This is a big, fluid story that will not leave anytime soon.
The other story we've been living with for a very long time now has been the central bank actions to try to bring inflation down. What a curious turn of events.
The labour market report from last week had us thinking a certain way about central bank policy but now all these fed speakers are coming out and saying, maybe the bond market has done a lot of the work for us in that run-up in yields.. Another voice adding to the course today. There seems to be a concerted effort from Fed officials.
. . >> Mechanically tied with inflation.
We've got a problem that may play out over the next five years which is you are seeing an aging population, baby boomers retiring, that's having an impact.
One of the other things he looks at?
Aging population, income inequality, technological change, rising debt and climate change. He said those factorsplaying together may have an impact on the fact that the inflation story doesn't play out the way you might expect it to.
What I thought was interesting about what he had to say was he said you could see this kind of disruption over the next five years.
That dovetails very nicely with the Bank of Canada research that was released in June where they interviewed small business people and small business people said, look, we don't see inflation going back to 2% for another five years.
Whatever mechanics you take to get there, are we looking at five years to get back to 2%?
And if that's the case, maybe slowing down and letting the economy work through its gears makes a lot of sense.
>> It feeds in, Anthony, to this idea that we will be higher for longer which seems so seeps into the market in this week if we are worried about inflation and talking about inflation, we got some significant rates from south of the border, whether with wholesale prices, headline inflation.
What was I telling us?
>> Yes, as you mentioned, we got higher-than-expected wholesale inflation, higher-than-expected CPI inflation, retail inflation, and they're sort of good news and bad news to that story of inflation.
The good news is that underlying core inflation is flowing from its four year highs last year. Of course, the bad news is the sharp slowdown we saw in core inflation… Some of the biggest factors driving that, gas, shelter costs as well.
So I think the Fed can claim victory.
They are progressing on inflation but they can't claim victory on actually taming inflation.
I think they still have a long way to go.
>> All right, we will give last word to Susan. It all seems up to uncertainty, which we know the markets don't like.
>> They don't like it and I look at the CPI and what was the biggest factor in CPI? Housing costs.
We got the dog chasing its tail here.
>> Exactly. If you are paying a higher borrowing costs, that affect central banks. I know our audience have sorta treated on that as well. Great way to start the show. Thanks so much for the conversation. Great way to sum up what happened all week.
>> Thanks.
>> That was markets editor Anthony Okolie and Susan Prince, the editor for MoneyTalk DIY.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top storiesin the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Earnings season has kicked off with the big Wall Street banks. J.P. Morgan Chase, let's start there, beat analyst expectations for its most recent quarter.
These higher interest rates and lower costs the banks are benefiting the bottom line. For Wells Fargo, is raising its annual forecast.
It is also benefiting from higher interest payments. Meantime, Citigroup delivered a bead on growth for its institutional clients and personal banking business lines. Some movements higher for those banks today, maybe not for the broader market, but higher. Call of Duty is now part of the Xbox gaming platform. Software giant Microsoft has closed at $69 billion acquisition of the videogame maker Activision Blizzard.
That's after cleared a final regulatory hurdle in Britain. The steel has been several years in the making.
The company also produces popular titles such as overwatch and Tony Hawk Pro skater.
The possibility of higher for longer interest rates has the Canadian Real Estate Association… [video buffering] Lowering its expectations for our country's housing market.
The group now expecting the average Canadian home price… Fixed income portfolio management at TD Asset Management and asked her what investor should be thinking about.
> That there is a lot of uncertainty and how we price that uncertainty is a big unknown.
If we think about what happened in September with the huge rise in bond yields, and then we had jobs numbers come out, both in Canada and the US in early October, and is just showing a lot of resilience. This tightening of financial conditions, this tightening of monetary policy just doesn't seem to be having an impact on the real economy.
And so investors are saying, look, the future is really uncertain, and the things that I thought would happen by this point are not happening. The slowdown of the economy is not really coming through.
So maybe we need to charge more risk premia for the uncertainty, and that's manifesting in higher bond yields, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, 10 year and 30 year government bonds.
>> Now, when you see a geopolitical risk event of this magnitude, you do see the move into gold. You see the move into bonds. We saw that play out. But at the same time, we got some dovish comments from Fed speakers talking about that dramatic bond sell off, the rise in rates and saying, well, maybe now-- >> Right.
>>. . .the bond market has done our work for us.
>> Correct. So you have these multiple narratives right now that are making it difficult to say with any kind of conviction what is actually driving these moves in markets. Obviously, the conflict in the Middle East is still very early-- too soon to tell whether it becomes more of a regional conflict. If it does, I think that has the potential to generate a risk off sentiment globally across financial markets, across asset classes.
But in the US specifically, those call it dovish comments that you were referring to when I said that bond yields have risen, that investors are demanding higher risk premium, or more yield to hold government bonds with longer durations, what Fed members are interpreting that to be is what we call the term premium. In other words, demanding more compensation for holding longer duration risk.
And for them, that does translate ultimately into a tightening of financial conditions or a tightening of credit conditions for the real economy, whether it's corporations that have been delaying issuing new debt or refinancing because they kept expecting interest rates to come down. Or whether it's households that have delayed those home purchases in the expectation that mortgage rates would come down. Well, now that longer bond yields are higher, the probability of both of those segments of the economy seeing an alleviation from higher yields is a lot lower. And so from the Fed's perspective, that means that really the bond market, it's doing its work for them.
>> So after a year and a half of aggressive central bank rate hikes and then a bond sell off that pushed yields in the bond market to 16-year highs, are we at a point now where we could say perhaps we have over tightened? This has gone too far.
>> Even before this move in the last several weeks, one could have made the argument that there was already over tightening. And again, like I mentioned, you would never know that there was over tightening if you just looked at the labor market, although the details, even within the labor space, are not strong, per se.
Headline numbers are strong, but not necessarily the details underneath them.
>> That said, when you think about the Fed and having to conduct monetary policy or any central bank and having to conduct monetary policy to address future conditions, one of the things that they latch on to a lot is this concept of, well, what is the appropriate policy rate in the long run for our economy to be in equilibrium?
And there's so many things that impact how our economy can grow. It could be population and demographic characteristics. It could be government policymaking. It could be geopolitical conflicts. It could be indebtedness, innovation. There's way too many factors to determine what that appropriate policy rate is.
But while some people say, well, that rate is probably higher today than it was before the pandemic, I think there would be very few who would say that rate should be higher than where it was, let's say, 40 years ago. And the reason I latch on to that period of time is if you compare where the Fed policy rate is today relative to that abstract concept of a neutral rate, it's actually-- the policy rate today is higher relative to that neutral rate than where we would have been 40 years ago.
That's really relevant because it could actually suggest that although, you know, the Fed's sitting at just under 6%, the policy settings may be a lot more restrictive today than where they were when the Fed policy rate was double digits back in the '80s. So again, depends on how you think through policy, monetary policy settings. But one could make the argument that financial conditions.
. . [video buffering] And in fact, even when we look at what the Fed did, right, they gave us their updated economic projections, everybody latched on to the fact that their growth forecast is higher, right-- the soft landing narrative. But what about the fact that they've actually reduced their inflation forecast for this year, and then more or less left it unchanged for the coming years where they're showing a gradual return to 2%?
The Fed clearly doesn't see the risks to inflation to be skewed to the upside anymore.
Now it's either balanced, and if anything-- and if I mentioned that the policy settings might actually be a lot more restrictive than where they were four decades ago, it's possible that there could be some downside surprises to inflation in the coming months and quarters.
>> That was Alexandra Gorewicz, VP and Dir. of active fixed income portfolio management at TD Asset Management.
Now, let's get to today's education segment.
As you been watching the show, you know that we use Advanced Dashboard on WebBroker and in today's education segment, Bryan Rogers, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing's winter shows how to research stock information on Advanced Dashboard.
always great to see you.
Walk us through this.
>> All right, great. With Advanced Dashboard, there are a lot of different widgets and tools we could use for research.
You can add quotes to your watch list, a number of different categories.
You can look at the charts. There is a popular one called earnings analyser. But one of my favourites is analytics. There is an analytics tab that's already built in. There's a lot of customization you can do on Advanced Dashboard. One that comes up automatically and that I love to show because it's not one you may notice right off the bat but analytics is where you can look up a lot of different fundamental data, some of it qualitative, you could learn some things about the company, find out who the managers are, things like that.
but in the fashion of Advanced Dashboard, you think of a dashboard, it's laid out where you can see everything… [video buffering] Have these tabs across the top the monitor in charts and market policy and so on. But the one I'm looking at, you're going to find under analytics. Under analytics, if you don't see it, it should be there but if you don't see it right away, it's going to initially default to markets, you will see a markets tab, relative performance on the right-hand side, you will see one called equity analytics. The reason I like this one is that it gives you a lot of unique information on the company. You can only search this on the web but as I said, in dashboard fashion, it's giving it to you right off the bat, giving it to you there, information on their market, shares outstanding, the current price. Their headquarters and things like that. You can get there fiscal year end, quarterly, the next few quarterly postings that are expected.
A bit of information to about what the company does. This one is for Home Depot.
But then you can get some management information if you want to research you always hear about qualitative analysis, you want to research, who were the managers? Are they a good fit with this company?
Are they going to have the proper mission of the proper qualifications and so on?
Seek and research that a little bit further.
In terms of the numbers, you can dive in and go to analyst evaluations, so it has ratings, have they been raised or unchanged, what is their overall rating, is there a body, a target price, there's a lot of great information to digest there.
And you can continue to go across the top.
We have financial statements, you can see a summarized or shortened version of the financial statements to see the balance sheet, the income statement, the cash flow down at the bottom.
Another one I really love his estimates and ratios. Now you can edit this in terms of seeing earnings-per-share, if you want to see a peg ratio or cash flow per share, you can see itthat on the graphics as well.
The last one I want to show you has been in relative performance. This is really interesting because we hear all the time in our classes about the idea of looking at, hopefully this one low tier and a second, of beta and correlations.
So how correlated is your stock to other investments, other types of investments.
How is it doing against certain benchmarks and indexes.
So you can see parameters in terms of how is that stock doing versus the overall market and housing correlated to other stocks and things of that nature.
>> We got a lot of information there.
Obviously, very… [video buffering] Helpful to people, WebBroker clients as they are doing their research on stocks.
We know we get a lot of questions about finding dividend information on WebBroker.
What about Advanced Dashboard?
>> Yeah, really quickly, if we jump back to Advanced Dashboard, we will jump in the right away, in WebBroker, we go to the advanced section, it's a bit limited on the number of dividends.
You can see back a few years and Advanced Dashboard, in the same location, we hadn't had some of these other icons… [video buffering] You can see the payment date, and most important way, if anybody did attend, there was a webinar that I hosted yesterday with a panel of dividend experts talking about dividend strategies and one of the things they talked about is looking at, is the company continually increasing the dividend?
You want to look for those companies that are increasing their dividend over time.
So you get a good look at that they are, whether they held the dividend or increased it, and it goes back really far.
I don't know how far we are going back and Home Depot, but if I go down to the bottom, it's going way back to about 1987.
If the company has information, you can see the changes in the dividends and it's amazing to see that growth that is there for the dividends on a particular company.
>> 87. I was only… [video buffering] Only 16 years old back then. Great stuff as always.
>> All right, thanks a lot, Greg.
… Volume.
All right, so here we go, this is the TSX 60 that we are screening through right now in terms of what is moving in the market.
We are seeing the price of gold of substantially, we also have a move higher in the price of crude with geopolitical uncertainty. You are seeing a bid into some of the mining stocks, including the likes of Kinross upvote 6% right now or a Barrick Gold, up about 4%.
It's a bit more muted in the energy space although you are seeing some gains for a name like Cenovus, CVE, or CNQ. In the technology space, you've got Shopify under a bit of pressure.
It's not just the SNP TSX or the TSX 60, we can screen through a lot of different things, including the S&P 100.
It is the kickoff of bank earnings for the big US banks.
You are seeing a move higher and a lot of them including J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo.
It's not enough to sort of… [video buffering] Lifts the tide of the broader market. You are seeing weakness in tech, some of the consumer names as well.
On Monday, we are going to be joined by Juliana Faircloth, VP, global industrial analyst said TD Asset Management. He will talk aboutindustrial stocks with Juliana.
You can get a head start with those questions by emailing moneytalklive@td.
com. We are having some issues with our Internet streaming, if that has impacted your enjoyment of the show, we apologize.
on behalf of all of us here at MoneyTalk Live, in front of the camera and behind the scenes, thanks for watching and we will see you after the weekend.
[music]
No south of the border, of course geopolitical tensions, and I own inflation, there's a lot we will be discussing soon with our panelists.
You've got a 21 point deficit for the S&P 500, down about half a percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ, want to see how it's fearing against the broader market.
You are seeing some accelerating weakness now, down 120 points, almost a full percent.
It's the kickoff of bank earnings season south of the border, J.P. Morgan among them managing to hand in a beat.
At 150 bucks and change, you got JP Morgan up about 3 1/2%. And that's your market update.
There is no shortage of news for investor to digest this week from the terrible situation unfolding in Israel and Gaza, some commentary from Fed officials on the future direction of interest rates.
Joining it out to discuss, markets editor Anthony Okolie and Susan Prince, editor for MoneyTalk DIY.always great to have you on the program. We have to start on the piece that's been horrific from a humanitarian perspective and from a geopolitical's perspective we don't know what's next. Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
>> We are looking at terrible things happening.
For us looking around, what we are paying attention to is what the impacts are on the market.
If you look at this, you will see the TSX is up on the weak, unsurprising with energy stocks, but flat on the year. Up less than a percent on the year, S&P 500 up about 13% on the year, the Dow Jones is up on the weekend down on the year.
Taking a step back from what's happened over the past seven days and trying to get a wider perspective on it when you are looking at what this impact could have for your investments, retirement plan, that sort of thing.
>> I think the market is trying to work through it. Gold has moved higher coming out of the weekend. Some pullbacks. Crude moved higher.
Today we got gold and crude oil surging higher again heading into a weekend of really not knowing what's going to happen next.
I know we had some guests on and there were some insights into oil in particular but what the longer term, as you say Susan, day-to-day gyrations, longer-term what may happen.
>> We heard from Michael Craig earlier this week on an interview in MoneyTalk where he talks about the similarities to the conflict in Ukraine and the middle he is in that these are two regions that ship a lot of oil and he talks about scenarios that could transpire and potentially impact the price of oil. Take a listen.
>> I think oil in general will trade with a bit of a premium now because we have some degree of uncertainty now of what might transpire from here.
It might be a localized war or it might draw in other actors were you could see a material move in oil.
If it's localized, this probably is over in a few months, but if it spills over, then he got real problems and in that scenario, I think oil goes over 100, of $250 per barrel.
>> Of course in that interview Michael goes on to say that looking ahead, market performance would be more a function of domestic economies rather than a Middle East conflict. It is the US in a recession or moving towards that?
to watch the full interview, go to moneytalkgo.com.
>> We will hear from Hussein Allidina later in the program about his take on what the applications could be for the global energy markets. This is a big, fluid story that will not leave anytime soon.
The other story we've been living with for a very long time now has been the central bank actions to try to bring inflation down. What a curious turn of events.
The labour market report from last week had us thinking a certain way about central bank policy but now all these fed speakers are coming out and saying, maybe the bond market has done a lot of the work for us in that run-up in yields.. Another voice adding to the course today. There seems to be a concerted effort from Fed officials.
. . >> Mechanically tied with inflation.
We've got a problem that may play out over the next five years which is you are seeing an aging population, baby boomers retiring, that's having an impact.
One of the other things he looks at?
Aging population, income inequality, technological change, rising debt and climate change. He said those factorsplaying together may have an impact on the fact that the inflation story doesn't play out the way you might expect it to.
What I thought was interesting about what he had to say was he said you could see this kind of disruption over the next five years.
That dovetails very nicely with the Bank of Canada research that was released in June where they interviewed small business people and small business people said, look, we don't see inflation going back to 2% for another five years.
Whatever mechanics you take to get there, are we looking at five years to get back to 2%?
And if that's the case, maybe slowing down and letting the economy work through its gears makes a lot of sense.
>> It feeds in, Anthony, to this idea that we will be higher for longer which seems so seeps into the market in this week if we are worried about inflation and talking about inflation, we got some significant rates from south of the border, whether with wholesale prices, headline inflation.
What was I telling us?
>> Yes, as you mentioned, we got higher-than-expected wholesale inflation, higher-than-expected CPI inflation, retail inflation, and they're sort of good news and bad news to that story of inflation.
The good news is that underlying core inflation is flowing from its four year highs last year. Of course, the bad news is the sharp slowdown we saw in core inflation… Some of the biggest factors driving that, gas, shelter costs as well.
So I think the Fed can claim victory.
They are progressing on inflation but they can't claim victory on actually taming inflation.
I think they still have a long way to go.
>> All right, we will give last word to Susan. It all seems up to uncertainty, which we know the markets don't like.
>> They don't like it and I look at the CPI and what was the biggest factor in CPI? Housing costs.
We got the dog chasing its tail here.
>> Exactly. If you are paying a higher borrowing costs, that affect central banks. I know our audience have sorta treated on that as well. Great way to start the show. Thanks so much for the conversation. Great way to sum up what happened all week.
>> Thanks.
>> That was markets editor Anthony Okolie and Susan Prince, the editor for MoneyTalk DIY.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top storiesin the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Earnings season has kicked off with the big Wall Street banks. J.P. Morgan Chase, let's start there, beat analyst expectations for its most recent quarter.
These higher interest rates and lower costs the banks are benefiting the bottom line. For Wells Fargo, is raising its annual forecast.
It is also benefiting from higher interest payments. Meantime, Citigroup delivered a bead on growth for its institutional clients and personal banking business lines. Some movements higher for those banks today, maybe not for the broader market, but higher. Call of Duty is now part of the Xbox gaming platform. Software giant Microsoft has closed at $69 billion acquisition of the videogame maker Activision Blizzard.
That's after cleared a final regulatory hurdle in Britain. The steel has been several years in the making.
The company also produces popular titles such as overwatch and Tony Hawk Pro skater.
The possibility of higher for longer interest rates has the Canadian Real Estate Association… [video buffering] Lowering its expectations for our country's housing market.
The group now expecting the average Canadian home price… Fixed income portfolio management at TD Asset Management and asked her what investor should be thinking about.
> That there is a lot of uncertainty and how we price that uncertainty is a big unknown.
If we think about what happened in September with the huge rise in bond yields, and then we had jobs numbers come out, both in Canada and the US in early October, and is just showing a lot of resilience. This tightening of financial conditions, this tightening of monetary policy just doesn't seem to be having an impact on the real economy.
And so investors are saying, look, the future is really uncertain, and the things that I thought would happen by this point are not happening. The slowdown of the economy is not really coming through.
So maybe we need to charge more risk premia for the uncertainty, and that's manifesting in higher bond yields, particularly at the long end of the yield curve, 10 year and 30 year government bonds.
>> Now, when you see a geopolitical risk event of this magnitude, you do see the move into gold. You see the move into bonds. We saw that play out. But at the same time, we got some dovish comments from Fed speakers talking about that dramatic bond sell off, the rise in rates and saying, well, maybe now-- >> Right.
>>. . .the bond market has done our work for us.
>> Correct. So you have these multiple narratives right now that are making it difficult to say with any kind of conviction what is actually driving these moves in markets. Obviously, the conflict in the Middle East is still very early-- too soon to tell whether it becomes more of a regional conflict. If it does, I think that has the potential to generate a risk off sentiment globally across financial markets, across asset classes.
But in the US specifically, those call it dovish comments that you were referring to when I said that bond yields have risen, that investors are demanding higher risk premium, or more yield to hold government bonds with longer durations, what Fed members are interpreting that to be is what we call the term premium. In other words, demanding more compensation for holding longer duration risk.
And for them, that does translate ultimately into a tightening of financial conditions or a tightening of credit conditions for the real economy, whether it's corporations that have been delaying issuing new debt or refinancing because they kept expecting interest rates to come down. Or whether it's households that have delayed those home purchases in the expectation that mortgage rates would come down. Well, now that longer bond yields are higher, the probability of both of those segments of the economy seeing an alleviation from higher yields is a lot lower. And so from the Fed's perspective, that means that really the bond market, it's doing its work for them.
>> So after a year and a half of aggressive central bank rate hikes and then a bond sell off that pushed yields in the bond market to 16-year highs, are we at a point now where we could say perhaps we have over tightened? This has gone too far.
>> Even before this move in the last several weeks, one could have made the argument that there was already over tightening. And again, like I mentioned, you would never know that there was over tightening if you just looked at the labor market, although the details, even within the labor space, are not strong, per se.
Headline numbers are strong, but not necessarily the details underneath them.
>> That said, when you think about the Fed and having to conduct monetary policy or any central bank and having to conduct monetary policy to address future conditions, one of the things that they latch on to a lot is this concept of, well, what is the appropriate policy rate in the long run for our economy to be in equilibrium?
And there's so many things that impact how our economy can grow. It could be population and demographic characteristics. It could be government policymaking. It could be geopolitical conflicts. It could be indebtedness, innovation. There's way too many factors to determine what that appropriate policy rate is.
But while some people say, well, that rate is probably higher today than it was before the pandemic, I think there would be very few who would say that rate should be higher than where it was, let's say, 40 years ago. And the reason I latch on to that period of time is if you compare where the Fed policy rate is today relative to that abstract concept of a neutral rate, it's actually-- the policy rate today is higher relative to that neutral rate than where we would have been 40 years ago.
That's really relevant because it could actually suggest that although, you know, the Fed's sitting at just under 6%, the policy settings may be a lot more restrictive today than where they were when the Fed policy rate was double digits back in the '80s. So again, depends on how you think through policy, monetary policy settings. But one could make the argument that financial conditions.
. . [video buffering] And in fact, even when we look at what the Fed did, right, they gave us their updated economic projections, everybody latched on to the fact that their growth forecast is higher, right-- the soft landing narrative. But what about the fact that they've actually reduced their inflation forecast for this year, and then more or less left it unchanged for the coming years where they're showing a gradual return to 2%?
The Fed clearly doesn't see the risks to inflation to be skewed to the upside anymore.
Now it's either balanced, and if anything-- and if I mentioned that the policy settings might actually be a lot more restrictive than where they were four decades ago, it's possible that there could be some downside surprises to inflation in the coming months and quarters.
>> That was Alexandra Gorewicz, VP and Dir. of active fixed income portfolio management at TD Asset Management.
Now, let's get to today's education segment.
As you been watching the show, you know that we use Advanced Dashboard on WebBroker and in today's education segment, Bryan Rogers, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing's winter shows how to research stock information on Advanced Dashboard.
always great to see you.
Walk us through this.
>> All right, great. With Advanced Dashboard, there are a lot of different widgets and tools we could use for research.
You can add quotes to your watch list, a number of different categories.
You can look at the charts. There is a popular one called earnings analyser. But one of my favourites is analytics. There is an analytics tab that's already built in. There's a lot of customization you can do on Advanced Dashboard. One that comes up automatically and that I love to show because it's not one you may notice right off the bat but analytics is where you can look up a lot of different fundamental data, some of it qualitative, you could learn some things about the company, find out who the managers are, things like that.
but in the fashion of Advanced Dashboard, you think of a dashboard, it's laid out where you can see everything… [video buffering] Have these tabs across the top the monitor in charts and market policy and so on. But the one I'm looking at, you're going to find under analytics. Under analytics, if you don't see it, it should be there but if you don't see it right away, it's going to initially default to markets, you will see a markets tab, relative performance on the right-hand side, you will see one called equity analytics. The reason I like this one is that it gives you a lot of unique information on the company. You can only search this on the web but as I said, in dashboard fashion, it's giving it to you right off the bat, giving it to you there, information on their market, shares outstanding, the current price. Their headquarters and things like that. You can get there fiscal year end, quarterly, the next few quarterly postings that are expected.
A bit of information to about what the company does. This one is for Home Depot.
But then you can get some management information if you want to research you always hear about qualitative analysis, you want to research, who were the managers? Are they a good fit with this company?
Are they going to have the proper mission of the proper qualifications and so on?
Seek and research that a little bit further.
In terms of the numbers, you can dive in and go to analyst evaluations, so it has ratings, have they been raised or unchanged, what is their overall rating, is there a body, a target price, there's a lot of great information to digest there.
And you can continue to go across the top.
We have financial statements, you can see a summarized or shortened version of the financial statements to see the balance sheet, the income statement, the cash flow down at the bottom.
Another one I really love his estimates and ratios. Now you can edit this in terms of seeing earnings-per-share, if you want to see a peg ratio or cash flow per share, you can see itthat on the graphics as well.
The last one I want to show you has been in relative performance. This is really interesting because we hear all the time in our classes about the idea of looking at, hopefully this one low tier and a second, of beta and correlations.
So how correlated is your stock to other investments, other types of investments.
How is it doing against certain benchmarks and indexes.
So you can see parameters in terms of how is that stock doing versus the overall market and housing correlated to other stocks and things of that nature.
>> We got a lot of information there.
Obviously, very… [video buffering] Helpful to people, WebBroker clients as they are doing their research on stocks.
We know we get a lot of questions about finding dividend information on WebBroker.
What about Advanced Dashboard?
>> Yeah, really quickly, if we jump back to Advanced Dashboard, we will jump in the right away, in WebBroker, we go to the advanced section, it's a bit limited on the number of dividends.
You can see back a few years and Advanced Dashboard, in the same location, we hadn't had some of these other icons… [video buffering] You can see the payment date, and most important way, if anybody did attend, there was a webinar that I hosted yesterday with a panel of dividend experts talking about dividend strategies and one of the things they talked about is looking at, is the company continually increasing the dividend?
You want to look for those companies that are increasing their dividend over time.
So you get a good look at that they are, whether they held the dividend or increased it, and it goes back really far.
I don't know how far we are going back and Home Depot, but if I go down to the bottom, it's going way back to about 1987.
If the company has information, you can see the changes in the dividends and it's amazing to see that growth that is there for the dividends on a particular company.
>> 87. I was only… [video buffering] Only 16 years old back then. Great stuff as always.
>> All right, thanks a lot, Greg.
… Volume.
All right, so here we go, this is the TSX 60 that we are screening through right now in terms of what is moving in the market.
We are seeing the price of gold of substantially, we also have a move higher in the price of crude with geopolitical uncertainty. You are seeing a bid into some of the mining stocks, including the likes of Kinross upvote 6% right now or a Barrick Gold, up about 4%.
It's a bit more muted in the energy space although you are seeing some gains for a name like Cenovus, CVE, or CNQ. In the technology space, you've got Shopify under a bit of pressure.
It's not just the SNP TSX or the TSX 60, we can screen through a lot of different things, including the S&P 100.
It is the kickoff of bank earnings for the big US banks.
You are seeing a move higher and a lot of them including J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo.
It's not enough to sort of… [video buffering] Lifts the tide of the broader market. You are seeing weakness in tech, some of the consumer names as well.
On Monday, we are going to be joined by Juliana Faircloth, VP, global industrial analyst said TD Asset Management. He will talk aboutindustrial stocks with Juliana.
You can get a head start with those questions by emailing moneytalklive@td.
com. We are having some issues with our Internet streaming, if that has impacted your enjoyment of the show, we apologize.
on behalf of all of us here at MoneyTalk Live, in front of the camera and behind the scenes, thanks for watching and we will see you after the weekend.
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