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[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing. Coming up on today's show, we are going to take a deep dive into the health of the US economy and the possibility of a recession. We will hear from TD economist Rannella Billy-Ochieng.
also today, it's the last quarter of the year, it's officially underway. So where do markets go from here? Michael Craig, head of asset allocation at TD Asset Management is going to share his thoughts on what to expect. Plus in today's education segment, Jason Hnatykis going to shows how you can tell if a stock is dual listed and what the benefits of that may be. But first, it is jobs Friday on both sides of the border. We have some interesting numbers to break down so let's start here in Canada. The economy added 64000 Positions in September, that is well above the expected 20,000.
Wage growth did take higher but total hours worked fella and the job gains were led by part-time employment. Part-time jobs are seen as lower quality jobs. TD Security says the jobs report alone, these numbers were sitting on the screen, it's not enough to tip the scales towards another BOC rate hike this month but the needle, they say, is moving closer.
The Bank of Canada, of course, what it takes these numbers, the 63,000 additions, the employment rate unchanged, they are going to have an inflation report to digest before their every decision on October 25. South of the border, they added 336000 Positions in Septemberand that blew past expectations for a gain of 170,000. The unemployment rate at 3.8%.
This expansion of the labour market in the United States, this is the fastest pace of expansion since January. Hiring was widespread across industries led by the service sector. TD Economics taking a look at all this and saying that at this point, another rate hike in November from the Fed seems inevitable.
That said, we do get a US inflation next week with the CPI report.
The market reaction to all this is just as interesting as the numbers themselves.
Let's start with the S&P 500 today, that broader read of the American market. Now, jobs come in hotter than expected.
The whole point of all these aggressive rate hikes has been to cool the economy and the labour market. So the first reaction to these hotter than expected jobs numbers wasn't the one you would perhaps expect. Equities pulled back, bond yields moved higher, gold moved lower, sort of all textbook stuff but something very interesting has been playing out through the morning. You will see that the S&P 500 is up one person. Bond yields have pulled back from the spike office information and equities are in rally mode. Where we in the day, I'm not sure because we change direction already just through the morning session.
Let's check in on the tech heavy NASDAQ, how is it reacting? It was the same thing.
There was a pullback. Now you got the NASDAQ composite index about 4% as well.
there are stories moving the stocks today outside of the jobs numbers. Tesla is cutting prices once again. Right now you brought Tesla down to the tune of a little less than 1%.
The TSX Composite Index, let's take it back home, we had a job to be on the side of the border as well. We have been hiking rates as well to try to cool the economy.
We too started the session lower and have now swung into positive territory.
Not as firmly as the Americans but with 72 points on the screen, we are up a little more than 1/3 of a percent.
Some of the most actively traded names or the yield sensitive stocks. BCE was lower in the session.
It has come off the lows and is still in negative territory but looking at a lot of the telecom names, a lot of the utility names to because they are all yield sensitive and yields jumped higher. The market is trying to settle out this information. Pretty interesting range.
That's your market update.
Of course, that labour market south of the border has been a main focus of all this, trying to predict which direction the economy is headed in. Earlier this week we spoke with TD Senior economist Rannella Billy-Ochieng and what she believes is going on.
>> So we see the US economy showing exceptional resilience, despite the fact that the Fed has been tightening rates for more than a year.
The US economy is on track to grow by close to 4% for this quarter, and that's a really large number.
Much of that strength is really coming from the consumers. They're showing exceptional resilience.
But looking beyond this quarter, we do expect to see the pace of growth slowing as the impact of monetary tightening makes its way into different sectors of the economy. And that's our outlook for the year to come.
>> OK, let's talk about jobs. Because, as you know, we got the August US Jobs Opening report, which seems to point to continued strength of the labor market.
But then again this morning, we got the US ADP Private Payrolls report which points to some weakness. So what are the trends that you're seeing right now?
>> So the monthly print in the Jobs Report can be a bit volatile.
So it's important for us to sometimes look beyond the monthly wiggles. If we look at the actual JOLTS report, for example the three month trend, we do see evidence of cooling showing up in that report.
Also, the Payrolls data, that has shown significant slowing since the beginning of the year. The three-month average was actually in the ballpark of roughly 300,000 gains in employment. Whereas in recent months, we've seen that number cut to something like half. That's a material change.
And that's to be expected, given where we are in the economic cycle and given the changes that we've seen on the policy front with the Fed aggressively tightening rates.
Looking ahead, we do expect to see that this trend is actually going to continue.
We do expect to see some job losses manifesting next year.
Another metric that we also look at is the breadth of hiring. hiring. decisions on hiring given the state of the economy.
So for example, if you look at the diffusion index which captures the breadth of hiring among firms, we actually see since the Fed started to hike rates last year. One of the things that we actually saw is that the breadth of hiring has slowed substantially. At its peak, it was in the realm of about 85. The latest print is something closer to 60.
>> Oh, I've seen that trend. That's the trend.
>> So we are seeing a broad trend, some broad evidence of slowing. And it's taking some time-- that's fully understood.
But we are seeing evidence of slowing, and that's something that's going to keep the Fed on guard. Because at the end of the day, the Fed needs to see material slowing in the labor market.
It needs to see wage growth slow considerably before we could declare victory on the inflation front.
>> It seems to be a challenge. Let's talk a little bit about inflation, talk about wage growth-- inflation is also persistently sticky.
Although we have seen that trend coming down, it's still not where the Fed wants it to be.
Where do you see inflation heading from here?
>> So the inflation print has been very sticky, and that's something that's making the Fed a bit uncomfortable.
We've seen month over month reading inflation edge up a bit, and that's something that we're not necessarily taking lightly.
When you look under the hood, one of the things that we do see is that services inflation is actually helping to drive some of those price pressures.
And more specifically, our shelter inflation-- that's one of the key culprits.
We've heard Fed officials talking about the stickiness of shelter inflation, and that's something that has been on their radar for some time.
But there's still cause for optimism.
Because if we look at where we are at now relative to the beginning of the year, price pressures have cooled significantly.
But we would think it's premature to say that the job is far from done.
And that's what essentially the Fed has been reiterating in their narrative.
They've been sending messages and hints that we're not done.
We're committed to cooling this inflation fire permanently.
They're going to keep their foot on the brakes for as long as possible.
And markets are reacting to that. That's why we saw bond yields jumping yesterday.
Because they're repricing the notion that we're going to see rates higher for longer, and some of that flowed over into equities.
>> Now, another thing that people have been talking about is, will a recession happen?
Will it happen? We kept hearing that it's coming. We haven't seen any evidence of that, as of yet.
Now, we are starting to see increasing worries of a recession in the market, particularly if the Fed keeps rates higher for longer. What are your thoughts?
Do you think that we could see a recession next year, or is a soft landing still in the cards?
>> So that's a difficult question to answer. And it's something that, when we look at recession risk versus soft landing, I think it's the way we characterize the depth and the duration of the slowdown. Our forecast at TD Economics, we are anticipating that the US economy is actually going to slow. And that's to be expected, given that we do see central banks tightening monetary policy.
We're not calling for a recession.
Instead, we're calling for a broad slowdown in growth.
We're calling for a slower pace of economic activity.
There are risks to our forecasts, and we are mindful of those risks.
There are things that could alter the future state of the US economy. For one, if inflation presents itself to be even more persistent than the Fed or even us think it would be, then it would mean that the Fed would necessarily have to raise interest rates further. And that would actually raise the odds that the economy might lose its footing.
There are other factors to consider-- late cycle factors, also issues with confidence.
We've seen a lot of things happening in the US. We've seen strikes, we've seen political disruptions, US Congress averting a government shutdown.
Those are things that they're not game changers by themselves.
But when they act together, they conspire to be very disruptive for economic growth.
>> That was TDs Senior economist Rannella Billy-Ochieng speaking with our Anthony Okolie.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top storiesin the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Tesla's cutting prices again as it aims to win more market share in the competitive electric vehicle space. List prices in the US for some of its Malo three and Model Y versions are being lowered.
That's after Tesla missed expectations for third-quarter deliveries. The company attribute adeptness to factory upgrades which they said slowed down the production. Right now you got Tesla down just modestly about 1%. Check in on shares of Levi Strauss, they are in the spotlight today, that after the denim apparel giant cut its full-year sales forecast after missing estimates in its most recent quarter. Right now, we actually have it turning around with the broader market almost up a full percent. Levi Strauss is seeing weaker demand at Apartments was carrying its products and the company has been shifting its focus to direct-to-consumer sales on the Internet.
There are rumblings out there of a possible multibillion dollar deal in the oil and gas sector.
Unconfirmed media reports suggest ExxonMobil is in talks to buy shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources in a deal with as much a $60 billion in the US.
As such a deal came to pass, it would be Exxon's largest acquisition since it bought Mobilin 1998, becoming ExxonMobil.
Quick check in on the markets, we will start here at home on Bay Street.
Jobs reports today in Canada and the US caused markets to move. Markets are in rally mode.
The SNP right now is up 73 points, little more than 1/3 of a percent. Since the border, pretty firm rally on our hands.
The S and P 500 is up about 1%.
We are of course into the month of October, the last quarter of 2023. The US economy has been defining expectations.
Take a look at the market, it's been several weeks, but on a year-to-date basis, the markets have beenDefying expectations. So what can we expect going forward to the end of the year? I put the question to Michael Craig, head of asset allocation at TD Asset Management and here's what he had to say.
>> So the bond market really started rolling over since August, surprisingly. I think most market participants are quite taken aback by the move. Many got long rates at lower yields, and now are feeling that.
I would say that, as we think where we go from here, the easier part of inflation reduction has happened.
So we've seen a decline in goods prices.
That's happened. I think we're on the precipice of seeing decline in rents.
But what I think we should think about going forward is, that last bit of inflation reduction back to those targeted ranges is going to be challenging. And the bond market's basically saying it's going to need to push the economy into some type of recession to get there.
There was a bit of a soft landing narrative, I think, circling the market, which we never really believed in. And it really was trying to describe the very strong US equity performance in the first half of the year I think that narrative now is past.
And really now, I think it becomes how severe a recession we're going to need to see to create the demand destruction to get inflation back to target, right? And so I think that's what the bond market is telling you, is that it's going to really restrict financial conditions to create that demand destruction. But just the speed with which it's doing it is just quite remarkable.
>> Quite remarkable. What does it actually mean for the central banks as well? I mean, the bond market is sort of making its voice heard. We still have to hear from central banks before the end of the year with rate decisions.
Trying to figure out the coin toss, right?
Are they done? Are they going to go again?
How long are they going to stay high for?
What does this environment do to a central bank's thinking?
>> I think that for the central banks, because inflation kind of got away from them, and there is a credibility issue, they were going to have to really keep restrictive conditions in place until they have very, very tangible evidence that not only is inflation back to range, but it's not going to rebound. The lesson which many people point to in the 1970s was, inflation came off, and job markets started to crack. At the time, there was more focus on jobs than inflation, so you get easing quite quickly. And the next thing you knew, within a year's time, inflation is back to 5%.
And so I think they are going to wait on this to make sure that they believe that inflation is within that range, and it's not going to accelerate if they ease, which really gets you back to this kind of "higher for longer." It's been a tricky one to call this year. The markets are not expecting much more.
We might get another hike in Canada, maybe half a chance of one hike in the US. That could certainly change if we get inflation going higher, which I don't believe is going to happen. So the easier answer is, I think we're probably done for hikes.
But the more challenging one is, how long are we going to stay restrictive?
And that is the million-dollar question.
The way I see it is, you're going to see a precipitous fall in activity. And timing that is a monk's game, but when it does, you'll see a pretty rapid decline in interest rates. But that is probably a late '24 story, but with a lot of uncertainty.
>> Let's talk about that and, if we do get this hard landing, what the market looks like. I mean, obviously, we would expect an acceleration in the unemployment rate on that side of the economic data. We expect to pull back in our economic output. What would the markets look throughout a period like that?
>> Markets are typically forward-looking indicators. I think the markets are actually starting to price that outcome right now. And so by the time the real economy really feels that pain, the markets will probably be bottoming. And that will be the point where returns, I think, going forward, will be higher.
But this move right now-- I mean, the stock market has finally gotten the message from the bond market that, hey, dude, tighter money is here, and it's hard to justify your valuations when money is trading at 5% or 6%. You can get basically great rates on cash products for that.
So you really need a higher risk premium in the stock market, and that's just not there.
So I think the stock market is starting to realize. It's starting to catch up to where the bond market's at.
We're probably entering the peak pain of what has been a two-year malaise.
Stocks are flat or actually down on a two-year window now.
And I think this is the end of this mini-bear market, if you will, which has been the last two years. It's the beginning of the end of that market. And I would expect a couple of quarters of maybe challenging conditions before you have much more upside in stocks.
>> Is the attractiveness of those cash products you mentioned part of the problem too for equities? Say you've got an equity that pays a yield of 4 and 1/2% or 5%, in terms of the dividend, and then you have a cash product that's paying 4 and 1/2% or 5%. Are they fighting each other?
>> Well, I think, investing, you've got to always think of the time horizon. Sure you can get 6% for one year, but in one year's time, there's no guarantee you get another 6%. So I think that people flock to cash because they see the current price is high, but often-- if you need the money in the next year, it makes total sense.
But if you're moving long-term investments over, and you're saying, I just can't be bothered right now, I just want to be out-- over long periods of time, if you look at any type of index chart, these periods of chaos don't look like much. If you are a long-term investor, you should be looking to accumulate in these types of periods. It's just, over the next six months or so, it's challenging.
So I always say, with cash, you always want cash. You always want to have some cash on hand. You might need it. You might have expenses.
But that should be a very small part of your overall investment portfolio. But nevertheless, we're seeing that move to cash, because people are making that kind of quick judgment now and saying, well, I'm going to try to lock this in. It's only going to be there for so long.
>> Before we finish this discussion, I did want to ask you-- in times like these, when you see bond yields moving aggressively higher, when you see all this kind of activity, the phrase "bond vigilante" starts coming up again in the press and in the commentary. Is this the work of bond vigilantes?
>> I think we're trying to take another period of history and slap it onto this one. Now, in all fairness, Western democracies are spending too much money.
And in all fairness, we will need to make some decisions about investment.
And we have now moved away from an era of free money. So you have to make decisions.
And if those decisions are not thoughtful, there is a price to be paid.
In the fall of last year, the UK is a prime example of what a bond vigilante environment looks like. They came, they slashed tax-- unfunded tax cuts. And the bond market just basically blew up. They had like a pension crisis. Over the five weeks, bond yields just exploded higher.
If governments haven't got the message yet, they will soon. If they come out with an announcement on spending that's going to rapidly reduce the deficits, you're going to see a move in the bond market.
Whereas in previous periods, because we had so much excess slack, you didn't see it.
So I think there's a little bit of that at play right now. The US certainly is running unsustainable fiscal policy. You see where this is going. It's going into a dumpster fire if they don't correct that over the next 10 years.
It's just, there hasn't been the political courage yet, because there hasn't been enough pain. So I think there is a part of that story to be held. Right now, I think this is more of just a buyer's strike, and there's so much volatility in the market, people are just holding back. But this is a term that I don't think is going to disappear anytime soon.
Because we are in a period of very restrictive money, and governments are still running excessive deficits.
>> That was Michael Craig, head of asset allocation at TD Asset Management.
Now let's get to our educational segment of the day.
In today's education say when, we are going to take a look and how you can tell if a stock is dual listed on the WebBroker platform. Here to walk us through it all is Jason Hnatyk, Senior point education sector with TD Direct Investing.
>> We all know the world economies are very interconnected and that's true of the Canadian and US exchanges.
At TD Direct Investing, we endeavour to give our clients opportunities to diversify in the ways they see fit. One way that can be accomplished is when you open your account, most often that you are going to get it Canadian and US dollar component to make things easy and be efficient with your foreign-exchange and one way to do that is through the use of dualistic securities where the same company is listed on both sides of the border, on the Toronto Stock exchange as well as the New York Stock Exchange.
Same company trading in different currencies. Not all companies are dual listed and there isn't always the same kind of liquidity in both markets. Let's jump into WebBroker to see how we can tell if it is dual listed or not.
You will notice that Enbridge is listed here.
Under the company prominently placed here is a Canadian flag.
You're looking at the Canadian version of the stock here, telling us that all of the quotes we are reviewing are going to be in Canadian dollars. Right next to the Canadian flag, there is a view on NYC, that's the New York Stock Exchange. Click on that and that Canadian flag is replaced by the US flag. The prices have changed, the same stock, trading in US dollars. If we go ahead and buy this particular security, it's going to be a US dollar transaction.
there are usually not any arbitrator opportunities but something to keep an eye on. We want to go ahead and make a purchase on the US listed version of Enbridge,we go ahead and click on the buy button like we would for any other purchase. Take note that the US flag is present on the right-hand side of the trade to get to ensure you are choosing the right currency for your transaction.
One important thing I want to point out to the audience is to take a look at the top of the screen.
This is where we can select which account we are going to trade in. I happen to be in my Canadian margin. I can be more efficient, if I bought this with the Canadian account I'd be causing a foreign exchange and I might not want that to happen.
So I put my US margin, now getting exposure of the Canadian company in my US account.
> Now we can see how it is listed.
Canadian listed, Canadian dollars, US listed, US dollars. Is there a way to transfer the stocks between currencies on WebBroker?
>> That's a great question.
It's got more uses between just transferring between the Canadian and US margin. Maybe you want transfer of physical security between or across your household accounts he can hold between your margin or your cash account or you're looking to make a security contribution to your TFSA or your RRSP. Let's jump back into the platform.
This time we are going to choose the accounts tab at the top of the page. Under transfers and withdrawals, the third option down is named to transfer securities.
We go ahead and choose that link.
For those who have done it cash transfers between their accounts, this process is going to be very similar.
In my demo account, I unfortunately don't have any holding so I want the whole process but we are choosing which account we want transfer the asset from and then the receiving account. From our previous example, if we transfer from our US account into our Canadian account, a security that was dualistic, I might've purchased that in US dollars, I transferred over to my Canadian account and get back Canadian dollars.
I avoid the foreign exchange, be efficient with my money and then identify further need for Canadian dollars is going to allow me to get the source from a US entity without the porn exchange. It's a really nice feature that I think people will be able to take advantage of.
>> Thanks for joining us.
>> My pleasure.
>> Jason Hnatyk, senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing.
And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars.
Also October is an investor education month for TD. Here's a look at what they have planned.
[music] You may have heard of Dr. Copper. It's called that because of the metals perceived ability to diagnose the health of the economy. Copper prices have been falling and inventories appear to be facing their largest surplus in years so what's up telling us about the state of the economy? Earlier I spoke with Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist with TD Securities for some insight.
>> So what is Dr. Copper telling us? I think it's actually signaling that storm clouds are building in the global economy.
And I have to nuance that because the demand picture for copper has so many idiosyncratic stories that warrant mentioning.
On the one hand, in China, the construction sector as we know has been going through a prolonged period of pain.
The construction sector is actually the largest individual end-use consumer of raw materials, copper is one of them.
But the story there is that the targeted stimulus that the government has implemented over the last several months is improving the outlook for completions of construction.
. So while the pipeline of future construction from which the pipeline of future copper demand might flow from is stagnant, the completion rate has increased notably, and that supports copper demand today.
Elsewhere in the US, it's no surprise that goods consumption is on the decline.
And that's been the case for a very long time.
And the same is true in Europe. Those are some areas where we do see the impact of interest rates flowing through into demand.
>> All right, so we have a few things at play there in terms of copper.
When we talk about the surplus that you see in the headlines, I believe you said there's idiosyncrasies here in the copper trade.
There's some nuances in this space too, isn't there?
>> Yeah, absolutely. The biggest piece of the puzzle for copper analysts out there is that you had a substantial increase in mine supply, a substantial increase, particularly in China, in refined production, so that's smelted copper.
China hasn't imported any less copper this year than last, but when you look at inventories on all the global exchanges, you can't see any sign of that buildup.
So if demand is really weak, supply has improved.
You should expect to see a rise in inventories which we actually haven't.
And some folks out there are suggesting that this implies that analysts have been very wrong on the consumption from renewable energy sectors, from electric vehicle sectors, which are some of the bright spots for copper demand as well.
What we see, however, is potential evidence of substantial builds in inventories in invisible inventories.
>> Let's talk about visible inventories.
In my head, it's someone going around with a clipboard actually checking, saying, how much copper do you have in that room?
Let's jump over to the next place. Is this what we're talking about here, the physical copper in the world?
>> In some ways, yes. So the exchanges in physical commodities are typically seen as the market of last resort, meaning that a trader would only deliver metal or take out metal from there as a last resort because the fees associated with parking your metal there are expensive. You also have, however, these commodities are consumed by real industries.
People talk about Dr. Copper because copper is used in almost everything that we have in the global economy.
So while you have inventories on the exchange and that's what is visible for analysts and traders in the world, you also have inventories at commercial sites.
Fabricators, the smelters themselves, those who are producing it have work in progress inventories.
And that's one of the explanations we see of where that missing copper actually is.
>> And where is it actually? Let's talk about China a little bit too.
The economy disappointing. We know there are huge consumers of commodities. Do they have the copper?
>> We do think a big chunk of that missing copper is located in China. So we spoke a little bit about how they haven't decreased their inventories, their production of refined copper has come up substantially. The demand side from the construction sector has been pretty weak.
So where is that missing copper? Part of the explanation of that might be that because the refined production has increased, these new smelters, the new capacity at smelters, actually need work-in-progress inventories. So that might be where part of the largest surplus in years is actually located. The other explanation is that you've had an increasing trend of these producers trading directly with manufacturers. So they have some refined copper that they would sell directly to a fabricator of some end-use product.
>> I want to ask you in the end what it could all mean for copper prices, but the one more piece of the puzzle, China's economy. Obviously, we entered this year with China dropping its COVID restrictions across a number of asset classes, across a number of commodities. People said, it's game back on.
The world's second largest economy opening for business.
Hasn't played out that way. What kind of effect is it having on copper?
>> No, absolutely it hasn't played out that way. And I'd say earlier this year, the optimism surrounding China's reopening and the subsequent optimism surrounding the stimulus in China was behind the rise in copper prices. The copper prices today don't seem to be reflecting the supply-demand balance that we're forecasting and that a lot of the statistical agencies out there have.
We're talking about the largest surplus in several years, and that surplus is actually likely to increase into next year. So what impact did China's economy have?
Well, the construction sector we've spoken about a little bit.
You have some offsetting forces. Right now, the rise in completions is supporting copper demand. But looking a little bit further out, China's depended on the real estate sector for so long to grow their economy, and that is probably changed on a secular horizon such that we won't be able to depend on that sector for future copper demand growth.
>> Now, I know you don't have a crystal ball, or if you do, I'd love to get in on that.
But, take all of this together, what could it mean for the price of copper and the near medium and longer terms?
>> Well, copper prices can come under a period of substantial weakness. We think that's the case, particularly in the short-term horizon. In the medium term and longer term horizon, however, that notion of a supercycle driven by the energy transition is really compelling. And in fact, it wouldn't be surprising that, over the longer term horizon, that the slump in copper prices that is likely in the short term appears as just a blip on a chart.
>> That was Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist Ed TD Securities.
Now for an update on the markets.
All right, we are into Advanced Dashboard here, taking a look at the heat map function. It gives you a view of the market movers. You can screen in a lot of different ways. We are going to look at the TSX 60 by price and volume.
jobs Friday on both sides of the border, much stronger job creation in it than expected both in Canada and the United States. In the market there was a sharp pullback in equities and a jump higher in bond yields and a pullback in gold.
that trade has gone the other way into the lunch hour. You have equities higher on both Bay and Wall Street, gold higher, oil modestly higher. So what it's actually doing for the TSX 60?
You can see a tech name like Shopify up a little more than 2%. Some momentum there.
A bit more mixed in the energy patch but you have some of the big name showing momentum to the upside. You got a name like Cameco, uranium play, up a little more than 2%. The material space, very interesting. It gold pulled back on stronger-than-expected US jobs report and no gold is higher, lifting some of those names, including Kinross Gold, up 2.6%, and Barrick Gold, up about 1 1/2%.
Let's take a look south of the border and check-in on the reaction there. A lot has changed since the markets opened at 930.
We open to the downside on the hotter than expected jobs report and then got a pretty firm Valley rally on our hands. Screen through the S&P 100, there's a lot of momentum in the tax base. There's a chipmaker, MD, up 3 1/2%, or Nvidia, also in the chip space. Meta, Microsoft, Apple, pretty firm rally underway.
you can get more information on TD Advanced Dashboard by visiting TD.com/Advanced Dashboard.
That's all the time we have for the show today. On a programming note, there will be no show money to businesses Thanksgiving holiday. You'll back on Tuesday when Alex Gorewicz, TD Asset Management, will be our guest take your questions about bond yields, fixed income and overall market sentiment.
and a reminder that you can get a head start, just email moneytalklive@td.com.
On behalf of everyone here, thanks for watching and we will see you after the long weekend.
[music]
also today, it's the last quarter of the year, it's officially underway. So where do markets go from here? Michael Craig, head of asset allocation at TD Asset Management is going to share his thoughts on what to expect. Plus in today's education segment, Jason Hnatykis going to shows how you can tell if a stock is dual listed and what the benefits of that may be. But first, it is jobs Friday on both sides of the border. We have some interesting numbers to break down so let's start here in Canada. The economy added 64000 Positions in September, that is well above the expected 20,000.
Wage growth did take higher but total hours worked fella and the job gains were led by part-time employment. Part-time jobs are seen as lower quality jobs. TD Security says the jobs report alone, these numbers were sitting on the screen, it's not enough to tip the scales towards another BOC rate hike this month but the needle, they say, is moving closer.
The Bank of Canada, of course, what it takes these numbers, the 63,000 additions, the employment rate unchanged, they are going to have an inflation report to digest before their every decision on October 25. South of the border, they added 336000 Positions in Septemberand that blew past expectations for a gain of 170,000. The unemployment rate at 3.8%.
This expansion of the labour market in the United States, this is the fastest pace of expansion since January. Hiring was widespread across industries led by the service sector. TD Economics taking a look at all this and saying that at this point, another rate hike in November from the Fed seems inevitable.
That said, we do get a US inflation next week with the CPI report.
The market reaction to all this is just as interesting as the numbers themselves.
Let's start with the S&P 500 today, that broader read of the American market. Now, jobs come in hotter than expected.
The whole point of all these aggressive rate hikes has been to cool the economy and the labour market. So the first reaction to these hotter than expected jobs numbers wasn't the one you would perhaps expect. Equities pulled back, bond yields moved higher, gold moved lower, sort of all textbook stuff but something very interesting has been playing out through the morning. You will see that the S&P 500 is up one person. Bond yields have pulled back from the spike office information and equities are in rally mode. Where we in the day, I'm not sure because we change direction already just through the morning session.
Let's check in on the tech heavy NASDAQ, how is it reacting? It was the same thing.
There was a pullback. Now you got the NASDAQ composite index about 4% as well.
there are stories moving the stocks today outside of the jobs numbers. Tesla is cutting prices once again. Right now you brought Tesla down to the tune of a little less than 1%.
The TSX Composite Index, let's take it back home, we had a job to be on the side of the border as well. We have been hiking rates as well to try to cool the economy.
We too started the session lower and have now swung into positive territory.
Not as firmly as the Americans but with 72 points on the screen, we are up a little more than 1/3 of a percent.
Some of the most actively traded names or the yield sensitive stocks. BCE was lower in the session.
It has come off the lows and is still in negative territory but looking at a lot of the telecom names, a lot of the utility names to because they are all yield sensitive and yields jumped higher. The market is trying to settle out this information. Pretty interesting range.
That's your market update.
Of course, that labour market south of the border has been a main focus of all this, trying to predict which direction the economy is headed in. Earlier this week we spoke with TD Senior economist Rannella Billy-Ochieng and what she believes is going on.
>> So we see the US economy showing exceptional resilience, despite the fact that the Fed has been tightening rates for more than a year.
The US economy is on track to grow by close to 4% for this quarter, and that's a really large number.
Much of that strength is really coming from the consumers. They're showing exceptional resilience.
But looking beyond this quarter, we do expect to see the pace of growth slowing as the impact of monetary tightening makes its way into different sectors of the economy. And that's our outlook for the year to come.
>> OK, let's talk about jobs. Because, as you know, we got the August US Jobs Opening report, which seems to point to continued strength of the labor market.
But then again this morning, we got the US ADP Private Payrolls report which points to some weakness. So what are the trends that you're seeing right now?
>> So the monthly print in the Jobs Report can be a bit volatile.
So it's important for us to sometimes look beyond the monthly wiggles. If we look at the actual JOLTS report, for example the three month trend, we do see evidence of cooling showing up in that report.
Also, the Payrolls data, that has shown significant slowing since the beginning of the year. The three-month average was actually in the ballpark of roughly 300,000 gains in employment. Whereas in recent months, we've seen that number cut to something like half. That's a material change.
And that's to be expected, given where we are in the economic cycle and given the changes that we've seen on the policy front with the Fed aggressively tightening rates.
Looking ahead, we do expect to see that this trend is actually going to continue.
We do expect to see some job losses manifesting next year.
Another metric that we also look at is the breadth of hiring. hiring. decisions on hiring given the state of the economy.
So for example, if you look at the diffusion index which captures the breadth of hiring among firms, we actually see since the Fed started to hike rates last year. One of the things that we actually saw is that the breadth of hiring has slowed substantially. At its peak, it was in the realm of about 85. The latest print is something closer to 60.
>> Oh, I've seen that trend. That's the trend.
>> So we are seeing a broad trend, some broad evidence of slowing. And it's taking some time-- that's fully understood.
But we are seeing evidence of slowing, and that's something that's going to keep the Fed on guard. Because at the end of the day, the Fed needs to see material slowing in the labor market.
It needs to see wage growth slow considerably before we could declare victory on the inflation front.
>> It seems to be a challenge. Let's talk a little bit about inflation, talk about wage growth-- inflation is also persistently sticky.
Although we have seen that trend coming down, it's still not where the Fed wants it to be.
Where do you see inflation heading from here?
>> So the inflation print has been very sticky, and that's something that's making the Fed a bit uncomfortable.
We've seen month over month reading inflation edge up a bit, and that's something that we're not necessarily taking lightly.
When you look under the hood, one of the things that we do see is that services inflation is actually helping to drive some of those price pressures.
And more specifically, our shelter inflation-- that's one of the key culprits.
We've heard Fed officials talking about the stickiness of shelter inflation, and that's something that has been on their radar for some time.
But there's still cause for optimism.
Because if we look at where we are at now relative to the beginning of the year, price pressures have cooled significantly.
But we would think it's premature to say that the job is far from done.
And that's what essentially the Fed has been reiterating in their narrative.
They've been sending messages and hints that we're not done.
We're committed to cooling this inflation fire permanently.
They're going to keep their foot on the brakes for as long as possible.
And markets are reacting to that. That's why we saw bond yields jumping yesterday.
Because they're repricing the notion that we're going to see rates higher for longer, and some of that flowed over into equities.
>> Now, another thing that people have been talking about is, will a recession happen?
Will it happen? We kept hearing that it's coming. We haven't seen any evidence of that, as of yet.
Now, we are starting to see increasing worries of a recession in the market, particularly if the Fed keeps rates higher for longer. What are your thoughts?
Do you think that we could see a recession next year, or is a soft landing still in the cards?
>> So that's a difficult question to answer. And it's something that, when we look at recession risk versus soft landing, I think it's the way we characterize the depth and the duration of the slowdown. Our forecast at TD Economics, we are anticipating that the US economy is actually going to slow. And that's to be expected, given that we do see central banks tightening monetary policy.
We're not calling for a recession.
Instead, we're calling for a broad slowdown in growth.
We're calling for a slower pace of economic activity.
There are risks to our forecasts, and we are mindful of those risks.
There are things that could alter the future state of the US economy. For one, if inflation presents itself to be even more persistent than the Fed or even us think it would be, then it would mean that the Fed would necessarily have to raise interest rates further. And that would actually raise the odds that the economy might lose its footing.
There are other factors to consider-- late cycle factors, also issues with confidence.
We've seen a lot of things happening in the US. We've seen strikes, we've seen political disruptions, US Congress averting a government shutdown.
Those are things that they're not game changers by themselves.
But when they act together, they conspire to be very disruptive for economic growth.
>> That was TDs Senior economist Rannella Billy-Ochieng speaking with our Anthony Okolie.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top storiesin the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Tesla's cutting prices again as it aims to win more market share in the competitive electric vehicle space. List prices in the US for some of its Malo three and Model Y versions are being lowered.
That's after Tesla missed expectations for third-quarter deliveries. The company attribute adeptness to factory upgrades which they said slowed down the production. Right now you got Tesla down just modestly about 1%. Check in on shares of Levi Strauss, they are in the spotlight today, that after the denim apparel giant cut its full-year sales forecast after missing estimates in its most recent quarter. Right now, we actually have it turning around with the broader market almost up a full percent. Levi Strauss is seeing weaker demand at Apartments was carrying its products and the company has been shifting its focus to direct-to-consumer sales on the Internet.
There are rumblings out there of a possible multibillion dollar deal in the oil and gas sector.
Unconfirmed media reports suggest ExxonMobil is in talks to buy shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources in a deal with as much a $60 billion in the US.
As such a deal came to pass, it would be Exxon's largest acquisition since it bought Mobilin 1998, becoming ExxonMobil.
Quick check in on the markets, we will start here at home on Bay Street.
Jobs reports today in Canada and the US caused markets to move. Markets are in rally mode.
The SNP right now is up 73 points, little more than 1/3 of a percent. Since the border, pretty firm rally on our hands.
The S and P 500 is up about 1%.
We are of course into the month of October, the last quarter of 2023. The US economy has been defining expectations.
Take a look at the market, it's been several weeks, but on a year-to-date basis, the markets have beenDefying expectations. So what can we expect going forward to the end of the year? I put the question to Michael Craig, head of asset allocation at TD Asset Management and here's what he had to say.
>> So the bond market really started rolling over since August, surprisingly. I think most market participants are quite taken aback by the move. Many got long rates at lower yields, and now are feeling that.
I would say that, as we think where we go from here, the easier part of inflation reduction has happened.
So we've seen a decline in goods prices.
That's happened. I think we're on the precipice of seeing decline in rents.
But what I think we should think about going forward is, that last bit of inflation reduction back to those targeted ranges is going to be challenging. And the bond market's basically saying it's going to need to push the economy into some type of recession to get there.
There was a bit of a soft landing narrative, I think, circling the market, which we never really believed in. And it really was trying to describe the very strong US equity performance in the first half of the year I think that narrative now is past.
And really now, I think it becomes how severe a recession we're going to need to see to create the demand destruction to get inflation back to target, right? And so I think that's what the bond market is telling you, is that it's going to really restrict financial conditions to create that demand destruction. But just the speed with which it's doing it is just quite remarkable.
>> Quite remarkable. What does it actually mean for the central banks as well? I mean, the bond market is sort of making its voice heard. We still have to hear from central banks before the end of the year with rate decisions.
Trying to figure out the coin toss, right?
Are they done? Are they going to go again?
How long are they going to stay high for?
What does this environment do to a central bank's thinking?
>> I think that for the central banks, because inflation kind of got away from them, and there is a credibility issue, they were going to have to really keep restrictive conditions in place until they have very, very tangible evidence that not only is inflation back to range, but it's not going to rebound. The lesson which many people point to in the 1970s was, inflation came off, and job markets started to crack. At the time, there was more focus on jobs than inflation, so you get easing quite quickly. And the next thing you knew, within a year's time, inflation is back to 5%.
And so I think they are going to wait on this to make sure that they believe that inflation is within that range, and it's not going to accelerate if they ease, which really gets you back to this kind of "higher for longer." It's been a tricky one to call this year. The markets are not expecting much more.
We might get another hike in Canada, maybe half a chance of one hike in the US. That could certainly change if we get inflation going higher, which I don't believe is going to happen. So the easier answer is, I think we're probably done for hikes.
But the more challenging one is, how long are we going to stay restrictive?
And that is the million-dollar question.
The way I see it is, you're going to see a precipitous fall in activity. And timing that is a monk's game, but when it does, you'll see a pretty rapid decline in interest rates. But that is probably a late '24 story, but with a lot of uncertainty.
>> Let's talk about that and, if we do get this hard landing, what the market looks like. I mean, obviously, we would expect an acceleration in the unemployment rate on that side of the economic data. We expect to pull back in our economic output. What would the markets look throughout a period like that?
>> Markets are typically forward-looking indicators. I think the markets are actually starting to price that outcome right now. And so by the time the real economy really feels that pain, the markets will probably be bottoming. And that will be the point where returns, I think, going forward, will be higher.
But this move right now-- I mean, the stock market has finally gotten the message from the bond market that, hey, dude, tighter money is here, and it's hard to justify your valuations when money is trading at 5% or 6%. You can get basically great rates on cash products for that.
So you really need a higher risk premium in the stock market, and that's just not there.
So I think the stock market is starting to realize. It's starting to catch up to where the bond market's at.
We're probably entering the peak pain of what has been a two-year malaise.
Stocks are flat or actually down on a two-year window now.
And I think this is the end of this mini-bear market, if you will, which has been the last two years. It's the beginning of the end of that market. And I would expect a couple of quarters of maybe challenging conditions before you have much more upside in stocks.
>> Is the attractiveness of those cash products you mentioned part of the problem too for equities? Say you've got an equity that pays a yield of 4 and 1/2% or 5%, in terms of the dividend, and then you have a cash product that's paying 4 and 1/2% or 5%. Are they fighting each other?
>> Well, I think, investing, you've got to always think of the time horizon. Sure you can get 6% for one year, but in one year's time, there's no guarantee you get another 6%. So I think that people flock to cash because they see the current price is high, but often-- if you need the money in the next year, it makes total sense.
But if you're moving long-term investments over, and you're saying, I just can't be bothered right now, I just want to be out-- over long periods of time, if you look at any type of index chart, these periods of chaos don't look like much. If you are a long-term investor, you should be looking to accumulate in these types of periods. It's just, over the next six months or so, it's challenging.
So I always say, with cash, you always want cash. You always want to have some cash on hand. You might need it. You might have expenses.
But that should be a very small part of your overall investment portfolio. But nevertheless, we're seeing that move to cash, because people are making that kind of quick judgment now and saying, well, I'm going to try to lock this in. It's only going to be there for so long.
>> Before we finish this discussion, I did want to ask you-- in times like these, when you see bond yields moving aggressively higher, when you see all this kind of activity, the phrase "bond vigilante" starts coming up again in the press and in the commentary. Is this the work of bond vigilantes?
>> I think we're trying to take another period of history and slap it onto this one. Now, in all fairness, Western democracies are spending too much money.
And in all fairness, we will need to make some decisions about investment.
And we have now moved away from an era of free money. So you have to make decisions.
And if those decisions are not thoughtful, there is a price to be paid.
In the fall of last year, the UK is a prime example of what a bond vigilante environment looks like. They came, they slashed tax-- unfunded tax cuts. And the bond market just basically blew up. They had like a pension crisis. Over the five weeks, bond yields just exploded higher.
If governments haven't got the message yet, they will soon. If they come out with an announcement on spending that's going to rapidly reduce the deficits, you're going to see a move in the bond market.
Whereas in previous periods, because we had so much excess slack, you didn't see it.
So I think there's a little bit of that at play right now. The US certainly is running unsustainable fiscal policy. You see where this is going. It's going into a dumpster fire if they don't correct that over the next 10 years.
It's just, there hasn't been the political courage yet, because there hasn't been enough pain. So I think there is a part of that story to be held. Right now, I think this is more of just a buyer's strike, and there's so much volatility in the market, people are just holding back. But this is a term that I don't think is going to disappear anytime soon.
Because we are in a period of very restrictive money, and governments are still running excessive deficits.
>> That was Michael Craig, head of asset allocation at TD Asset Management.
Now let's get to our educational segment of the day.
In today's education say when, we are going to take a look and how you can tell if a stock is dual listed on the WebBroker platform. Here to walk us through it all is Jason Hnatyk, Senior point education sector with TD Direct Investing.
>> We all know the world economies are very interconnected and that's true of the Canadian and US exchanges.
At TD Direct Investing, we endeavour to give our clients opportunities to diversify in the ways they see fit. One way that can be accomplished is when you open your account, most often that you are going to get it Canadian and US dollar component to make things easy and be efficient with your foreign-exchange and one way to do that is through the use of dualistic securities where the same company is listed on both sides of the border, on the Toronto Stock exchange as well as the New York Stock Exchange.
Same company trading in different currencies. Not all companies are dual listed and there isn't always the same kind of liquidity in both markets. Let's jump into WebBroker to see how we can tell if it is dual listed or not.
You will notice that Enbridge is listed here.
Under the company prominently placed here is a Canadian flag.
You're looking at the Canadian version of the stock here, telling us that all of the quotes we are reviewing are going to be in Canadian dollars. Right next to the Canadian flag, there is a view on NYC, that's the New York Stock Exchange. Click on that and that Canadian flag is replaced by the US flag. The prices have changed, the same stock, trading in US dollars. If we go ahead and buy this particular security, it's going to be a US dollar transaction.
there are usually not any arbitrator opportunities but something to keep an eye on. We want to go ahead and make a purchase on the US listed version of Enbridge,we go ahead and click on the buy button like we would for any other purchase. Take note that the US flag is present on the right-hand side of the trade to get to ensure you are choosing the right currency for your transaction.
One important thing I want to point out to the audience is to take a look at the top of the screen.
This is where we can select which account we are going to trade in. I happen to be in my Canadian margin. I can be more efficient, if I bought this with the Canadian account I'd be causing a foreign exchange and I might not want that to happen.
So I put my US margin, now getting exposure of the Canadian company in my US account.
> Now we can see how it is listed.
Canadian listed, Canadian dollars, US listed, US dollars. Is there a way to transfer the stocks between currencies on WebBroker?
>> That's a great question.
It's got more uses between just transferring between the Canadian and US margin. Maybe you want transfer of physical security between or across your household accounts he can hold between your margin or your cash account or you're looking to make a security contribution to your TFSA or your RRSP. Let's jump back into the platform.
This time we are going to choose the accounts tab at the top of the page. Under transfers and withdrawals, the third option down is named to transfer securities.
We go ahead and choose that link.
For those who have done it cash transfers between their accounts, this process is going to be very similar.
In my demo account, I unfortunately don't have any holding so I want the whole process but we are choosing which account we want transfer the asset from and then the receiving account. From our previous example, if we transfer from our US account into our Canadian account, a security that was dualistic, I might've purchased that in US dollars, I transferred over to my Canadian account and get back Canadian dollars.
I avoid the foreign exchange, be efficient with my money and then identify further need for Canadian dollars is going to allow me to get the source from a US entity without the porn exchange. It's a really nice feature that I think people will be able to take advantage of.
>> Thanks for joining us.
>> My pleasure.
>> Jason Hnatyk, senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing.
And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars.
Also October is an investor education month for TD. Here's a look at what they have planned.
[music] You may have heard of Dr. Copper. It's called that because of the metals perceived ability to diagnose the health of the economy. Copper prices have been falling and inventories appear to be facing their largest surplus in years so what's up telling us about the state of the economy? Earlier I spoke with Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist with TD Securities for some insight.
>> So what is Dr. Copper telling us? I think it's actually signaling that storm clouds are building in the global economy.
And I have to nuance that because the demand picture for copper has so many idiosyncratic stories that warrant mentioning.
On the one hand, in China, the construction sector as we know has been going through a prolonged period of pain.
The construction sector is actually the largest individual end-use consumer of raw materials, copper is one of them.
But the story there is that the targeted stimulus that the government has implemented over the last several months is improving the outlook for completions of construction.
. So while the pipeline of future construction from which the pipeline of future copper demand might flow from is stagnant, the completion rate has increased notably, and that supports copper demand today.
Elsewhere in the US, it's no surprise that goods consumption is on the decline.
And that's been the case for a very long time.
And the same is true in Europe. Those are some areas where we do see the impact of interest rates flowing through into demand.
>> All right, so we have a few things at play there in terms of copper.
When we talk about the surplus that you see in the headlines, I believe you said there's idiosyncrasies here in the copper trade.
There's some nuances in this space too, isn't there?
>> Yeah, absolutely. The biggest piece of the puzzle for copper analysts out there is that you had a substantial increase in mine supply, a substantial increase, particularly in China, in refined production, so that's smelted copper.
China hasn't imported any less copper this year than last, but when you look at inventories on all the global exchanges, you can't see any sign of that buildup.
So if demand is really weak, supply has improved.
You should expect to see a rise in inventories which we actually haven't.
And some folks out there are suggesting that this implies that analysts have been very wrong on the consumption from renewable energy sectors, from electric vehicle sectors, which are some of the bright spots for copper demand as well.
What we see, however, is potential evidence of substantial builds in inventories in invisible inventories.
>> Let's talk about visible inventories.
In my head, it's someone going around with a clipboard actually checking, saying, how much copper do you have in that room?
Let's jump over to the next place. Is this what we're talking about here, the physical copper in the world?
>> In some ways, yes. So the exchanges in physical commodities are typically seen as the market of last resort, meaning that a trader would only deliver metal or take out metal from there as a last resort because the fees associated with parking your metal there are expensive. You also have, however, these commodities are consumed by real industries.
People talk about Dr. Copper because copper is used in almost everything that we have in the global economy.
So while you have inventories on the exchange and that's what is visible for analysts and traders in the world, you also have inventories at commercial sites.
Fabricators, the smelters themselves, those who are producing it have work in progress inventories.
And that's one of the explanations we see of where that missing copper actually is.
>> And where is it actually? Let's talk about China a little bit too.
The economy disappointing. We know there are huge consumers of commodities. Do they have the copper?
>> We do think a big chunk of that missing copper is located in China. So we spoke a little bit about how they haven't decreased their inventories, their production of refined copper has come up substantially. The demand side from the construction sector has been pretty weak.
So where is that missing copper? Part of the explanation of that might be that because the refined production has increased, these new smelters, the new capacity at smelters, actually need work-in-progress inventories. So that might be where part of the largest surplus in years is actually located. The other explanation is that you've had an increasing trend of these producers trading directly with manufacturers. So they have some refined copper that they would sell directly to a fabricator of some end-use product.
>> I want to ask you in the end what it could all mean for copper prices, but the one more piece of the puzzle, China's economy. Obviously, we entered this year with China dropping its COVID restrictions across a number of asset classes, across a number of commodities. People said, it's game back on.
The world's second largest economy opening for business.
Hasn't played out that way. What kind of effect is it having on copper?
>> No, absolutely it hasn't played out that way. And I'd say earlier this year, the optimism surrounding China's reopening and the subsequent optimism surrounding the stimulus in China was behind the rise in copper prices. The copper prices today don't seem to be reflecting the supply-demand balance that we're forecasting and that a lot of the statistical agencies out there have.
We're talking about the largest surplus in several years, and that surplus is actually likely to increase into next year. So what impact did China's economy have?
Well, the construction sector we've spoken about a little bit.
You have some offsetting forces. Right now, the rise in completions is supporting copper demand. But looking a little bit further out, China's depended on the real estate sector for so long to grow their economy, and that is probably changed on a secular horizon such that we won't be able to depend on that sector for future copper demand growth.
>> Now, I know you don't have a crystal ball, or if you do, I'd love to get in on that.
But, take all of this together, what could it mean for the price of copper and the near medium and longer terms?
>> Well, copper prices can come under a period of substantial weakness. We think that's the case, particularly in the short-term horizon. In the medium term and longer term horizon, however, that notion of a supercycle driven by the energy transition is really compelling. And in fact, it wouldn't be surprising that, over the longer term horizon, that the slump in copper prices that is likely in the short term appears as just a blip on a chart.
>> That was Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist Ed TD Securities.
Now for an update on the markets.
All right, we are into Advanced Dashboard here, taking a look at the heat map function. It gives you a view of the market movers. You can screen in a lot of different ways. We are going to look at the TSX 60 by price and volume.
jobs Friday on both sides of the border, much stronger job creation in it than expected both in Canada and the United States. In the market there was a sharp pullback in equities and a jump higher in bond yields and a pullback in gold.
that trade has gone the other way into the lunch hour. You have equities higher on both Bay and Wall Street, gold higher, oil modestly higher. So what it's actually doing for the TSX 60?
You can see a tech name like Shopify up a little more than 2%. Some momentum there.
A bit more mixed in the energy patch but you have some of the big name showing momentum to the upside. You got a name like Cameco, uranium play, up a little more than 2%. The material space, very interesting. It gold pulled back on stronger-than-expected US jobs report and no gold is higher, lifting some of those names, including Kinross Gold, up 2.6%, and Barrick Gold, up about 1 1/2%.
Let's take a look south of the border and check-in on the reaction there. A lot has changed since the markets opened at 930.
We open to the downside on the hotter than expected jobs report and then got a pretty firm Valley rally on our hands. Screen through the S&P 100, there's a lot of momentum in the tax base. There's a chipmaker, MD, up 3 1/2%, or Nvidia, also in the chip space. Meta, Microsoft, Apple, pretty firm rally underway.
you can get more information on TD Advanced Dashboard by visiting TD.com/Advanced Dashboard.
That's all the time we have for the show today. On a programming note, there will be no show money to businesses Thanksgiving holiday. You'll back on Tuesday when Alex Gorewicz, TD Asset Management, will be our guest take your questions about bond yields, fixed income and overall market sentiment.
and a reminder that you can get a head start, just email moneytalklive@td.com.
On behalf of everyone here, thanks for watching and we will see you after the long weekend.
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