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[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing. Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here. We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing. Coming up on today show, we are going to discuss what to expect from tomorrow's US fed rate decision after that cooler than expected inflation report today with TD Securities James Dixon. MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie is going to have a look at a new report on the help of small businesses and then in our daily education segment from the DIT, Canadian Depository Receipts, Nugwa Haruna, Senior client education instructor from TD Direct Investing will take us through how to find on the platform. So here's how you can get in touch with us. Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker. Before we get our guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets. We will start with the TSX Composite Index. See what we have happening. A bit of a rebound in the price American benchmark crude today. That means a bit of money is flowing back in some of the energy names. It's been a choppy trade. Right now you're up 88 points, little 5/2 a percent, just about 20,000 on the TSX Composite Index. Cenovus, could've picked any of those energy names today that are coming back after yesterday selling pressure, 2305, it's up 3 1/3%. Hudbay Minerals getting a bit today as well. Let's check in on that one. Right now you got Hudbay up to the tune of born the 3rd%. South of the border, the S&P 500, that broader read of the American market, the Fed has entered their Tuesday meeting. You are seeing some momentum, by technical standard definition, we are in a bull market for the S&P 500 but that could be parsed out. You will parse set out during the show. Europe 25 points right now, little more than half a percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ, a lot of tech names have been moving higher, and at 89 points to the upside, you're up two thirds of a percent. And Oracle out after the bells yesterday, it says that the cloud business is showing some strength based on the fact that a lot of their customers are working on their AI offerings and using their cloud services. Right now Europe 1/2%. And that your market update. Well, we've got Fed officials entering a two day rate decision meeting. They are armed with a fresh inflation report showing cost-of-living pressures at their lowest level since early 2021. Does that set us up for a rate pause tomorrow? A lot going on. Junius Dr. discusses James Dixon, Dir. family offer solutions at TD Security. Great to have you back. > Thanks, great to be back. >> Everyone walking into that meeting has that inflation report under their arm. That we the talk of the table. What to be get out of the report and what does it do to the Fed's mindset? >> Need to look at market pricing going into tomorrow. The market is pricing in a pause and the hike in July. Our TD Securities house view is a hike tomorrow and the Fed is done. >> A hike tomorrow? Not the skip? >> No, not the skip. The skip would surprise. On our team, we believe the Fed is done. We think they come out with a data dependent narrative which the market could interpret as hawkish but that would really be a mistake. If you look at the data we have seen,the employment rate moved up from 3.4 to 3.7% while participation was flat. If you've got more people doing more than one job, that's not really a sign of a strong economy. You talk about the inflation number, yeah, the headline has come off, core sticky. That becomes a bit of a button of contention. And if you look at the PMIs, manufacturing PMIs continue to be in contractionary territory. the last print was a little bit lower. It's a tough spot for any central bank. you've got extremely tight credit conditions which suggests the loosening of policy while inflation is sticky which suggests you really need to hike rates. When you look at those credit conditions, I think this is quite important because we are now at a point in time with the debt ceiling has been raised. so the Treasury has to rebuild its account, its general account, and the estimation is the size of that issuances around $1 trillion. It sucks a huge amount of liquidity out of the market. It pushes the front-end yields a bit higher. It squeezes credit spreads higher. It just makes borrowing extremely, extremely difficult. Bank of America had a piece out saying that that 1 trillion of issuance is the equivalent of a 25 basis point hike. That really takes me back to what I talked about on our last show in May, where I said there's over 9 trillion of securities that are maturing by the end of next year. >> So 1 trillion to fill back up again and then all of this debt is going to roll over. >> 1 trillion default backup, and then you still got maturities of over 9 trillion. To put that into perspective, if one truly and equates to 25 basis point hike, in terms of tightening, 9 trillion is equivalent to 225 basis points from current levels. >> Additional from where we are? After a year of aggressive policy rate hikes, you would have this additional tightening of financial condition. >> Right. This is why we believe the Fed is going to have to step in and start buying these bonds. You don't have the same buyers as you had before. China is going to be more reluctant. Russia will be more reluctant. The Saudi's will be more reluctant. After the US froze dollar-denominated assets during the war in Ukraine, anyone who might not be on side with the US or is afraid of not being on the side of the US is going to be reluctant to step in and buy those bonds. >> So let's talk about the road forward, then. You think we get a hike tomorrow and then they have to pause that for reasons that you said. Is that setting up a situation where financial conditions will be too tight? Does this bring us to a hard landing, growing the economy to a halt? >> I want to backtrack. That's our house view. Our desk narrative is that the Fed is already done. So we deviate on our team from the house on that one. We also deviate from the street where the street thinks there's another height coming in July. I think the recession arguments, it's one that has been kicked around a lot. There was a report out from one of the large US players saying the probability of recession was around 35% now, so lower. The market is certainly not pricing a recession. But other major players like, I mean, Deutsche had a report out last week saying that we would probably see a recession in the first half of next year. Earlier this week, Fidelity and alley and put out report saying there will be a recession. Most are expecting a soft landing which is certainly where we land. Guys like Rosenberg are looking for a hard landing. Feeling our soft landing narrative is really like the Fed stepping in when things get nasty, injecting that liquidity through the bond market. It's just too early for that now. Things have to start getting bad. Equities have to sell off, and that hasn't really happened. If anything, he pointed out earlier, equities are up. The real concern there is a concentration. >> Let's talk about this bull market. Technically, you are above 20% from recent lows, the classic definition, but there is a concentration there. >> Long-duration assets. If you do have a recession and you do have significant tightening or tighter credit conditions even on the T-bill issuance, those are the first names to hurt. I certainly think there is long-term opportunity for tech, I just don't think it's today. >> What do we need to be thinking about then going forward? If that's everything that's going on right now, it's a lot and is complicate it and we can't foresee everything. If someone is thinking about the second half of the year, we are almost at the halfway point of this year, what should they be thinking about in terms of market strategy? >> It's funny, I spoke about this in April as well, if you are heading into a recession, you want to position defensively. Overweight fixed income, you want to be long, defensive like utilities, consumer Staples. If you're worried about inflation, you probably want to invest in commodities. That trade, the fixed income portion, certainly has work. If you look at it from the beginning of the year. But the other stuff has been sort of flat. Commodities have traded lower. We got that call completely wrong in the short term. I get into that if you like. We got the call wrong. We expected more of a demand coming through from China reopening and that hasn't happened. But overall, the macro landscape hasn't really changed so we still like commodities in the long run. I think you just put that exposure own equities, so at least you can hold onto the, claim the dividends and probably see more buybacks like we have seen in oil stocks. > We are probably going to get some questions on that during the show. A great start to the conversation. You will look into your questions for James Dixon in just a moment's time. And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com. Or you can fill at the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker. Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading. You have shares of Oracle in the spotlight today, the company delivering stronger-than-expected results on the top and bottom line, and is forecasting continued strength in the current quarter. Oracle says it's cloud computing business is benefiting from customers who are developing their artificial intelligence offerings. Also want to take a look at Cineplex today. They say film franchises such as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse are boosting box office sales to near pre-pandemic levels. The theatre chain is providing an update on it second quarter performance, so far, saying ticket sales are at 88% to 2019 levels. Cineplex also pointed to the upcoming Indiana Jones movie as a potential box office draw. He got Toyota announcing new technology for its electric vehicles that it says will improve driving range and cut costs. The Japanese automaker says it will pivot to high-performance, solid state batteries for TVs. Toyota also says the batteries will charge faster. You can see the stock up to the tune of about 6%. A quick check in on the markets. We will start here at home with the TSX Composite Index. A rebound in the price of American benchmark. Today after yesterday, rebounding some of the energy names. You're up a little shy of 100 points, about half a percent. South of the border, the S&P 500, the Fed has entered there today meeting. Got a fresh inflation print for them to bandy about, they are knocking around that table. You're up to 25 points on the S&P 500, although more than half percent. Okay, we are back with James Dixon, taking your questions about the markets. When the coming in, so let's get to them. We talked about the fat off the top of the show. last week, the BOC surprised with a rate hike. Of your wants to know what it means for the housing market. >>I was a little surprised when I came but I will give TD strategy a big kudos there. Andrew Kelvin called that beautifully. We on my team, we certainly didn't expect that to happen. We werein line with the market pricing. Some things that came out of that were very interesting. Attached on consumption being strong. They touched a strong GDP print. They touched on tight labour markets. That I found really troubling especially when we looked at last Friday's print. 17,000 jobs lost. How can the job market be tight? but to your point, the housing market has been hot. I think what we recognized was the cobra affect. That means getting the opposite of what you willwere trying to achieve. For a bit of background for viewers, The Cobra effect originated when, this was back in colonial India when the British realized there was a cobra infestation in Delhi. So they started paying for every cobra hi that was brought in. The problem was, people started farming cobras. >> Because it became lucrative. >> Yes. The government said, all right, we are no longer going to pay for these hides, the farmer said, okay, we will release them back into the city. >> So they had more cobras than before. >> Yes. We think it's the same situation with the Canadian housing market. The reason I say that is we had a supply problem before. Now the problem is bigger. We got higher rents, which certainly deters builders from doing new housing developments because funding is expensive. Higher rates are deterring people from moving, downsizing or upsizing. They just want to sit tight and see where things play out. So supply is getting less and less and fuelling demand, we've still got great immigration policies. I am a huge fan of immigration. But this is fuelling more demand. People need somewhere to live. There's just not enough supply out there. So we ultimately think this will have little effect. If anything, in my push those prices higher. >> The Bank of Canada did make note in a statement of the strength of the housing market. It was a short note. Another look at these things and they weigh them out when they do their financial system reviews. At the same time, do you think they are very concerned? It's one of the things on the table, clearly, but… >> This is a hot political topic. It's a struggle because young people are saying, we can't afford a home. And this is the Canadian dream. On the other end of the spectrum, you got retirees and a lot of Canadians don't have savings. They are relying on their homes as their pension. I think if you try or manage to collapse the housing market, that is a nuclear bomb. I think it's very politically unpalatable. >> Okay, let's is another question now. Still no theme of real estate, but this is about commercial real estate. Is this the next big risk to the markets? >> Yeah, it's funny, the markets have washed that story come and go but it's still a real risk attached on that in April. We got 2 1/2 trillion dollars in the US of commercial real estate mortgages maturing between now and 2027. This is a big number. We touched on just impact over 1 trillion on the market earlier. So what happens? When this debt matures and you've got to roll it, you refinance that debt at twice the cost. But the problem is your revenues are lower. So how do you make those payments? Because even if companies manage to bring people back to work four days a week and one day's work from home, they still need less office space so your revenues are now 80% of what they once were. So I don't even know how banks refinance those buildings because… > Last time you were here you said something fascinating about how the banks and the person with the mortgage on the property might not even be in agreement as to the value of the property anymore. >> That's right. Because if your revenues are 80% of what they were, you as a bank say, all right, this building is now worth $160 million. And you as the person who is trying to refinance the building says, no, it's worth 200. So how do you make up the shortfall? There's gotta be massive balance sheet write-downs and this is not only a problem in the US. This is a global problem. We are certainly not immune to that here in Canada and I think that that is why there is such a push to get people back into the office. >> Let's take another question here. This is not about real estate, this is about the recession we've been hearing about for quite some time now. Are we going to get it this year? >> I think I touched on that in the opening remarks. That's being kicked around a lot. Markets certainly are pricing it. As I said, we still believe in a soft landing. We think when the crack start to show,we will ultimately see central banks step in and come save the day, which prevents this from being ugly. A lot of big players still think there's going to be a recession. As I said, guys like Deutsche, alliance, fidelity, these are just some of the names, but the market certainly our pricing it. >> The market is supposed to be a forward-looking instrument. What you think is going on in the market right now? There's so many conflicting currents. For a while, the bond market was fighting the said. They fall in and out of sync with each other. We talked about a bull market for the S&P 500, despite recession concerns. What is the push and pull here? >> I wish I had the answer. >> I wish we knew whether we should be pushing or pulling. >> I think that stock should be significantly lower in this environment where rates are higher than they've been in years. We've seen aggressive tightening. I'm surprised stocks have held up as well. I'm surprised the market think there's going to be no recession. I'm surprised we are looking past this massive evolution, I'm surprised we're looking past all these debt maturities, there are a number of issues that arecompounding. I have no idea why stocks have held up. It's ahead scratcher almost every day for us. We certainly don't think we will see the S&P at 3000, but we could see a dip. It's ahead scratcher. >> That definitely gives us a lot of talk about as well. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. we will get back your questions for James Dixon on the markets in just a moment time. A reminder, of course, you can get in touch with us at any time. just email moneytalklive@td.com. Let's get to our educational segment of the day. One way investors can get access to foreign equities without worrying about currency conversion is there Canadian Depository Receipts. Nugwa Haruna, Senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing has more in this report. >> So you may have heard of depository receipts and these allow investors to purchase foreign investments in your local currency. There are some really popular ones in the US, Bob, so the Alibaba stock that investors buy, those are ADRs, American depository receipts. On the Canadian side, we have CDRs or Canadian Depository Receipts. these actually let investors have access to US listed securities in Canadian dollars. Let's hop into WebBroker and show how you can find these. Once in WebBroker, we are going to go to research. Under investments, we are going to go stocks. I'm going to pull up a US security in this instance. When I do that, you are going to notice two things. First you will see there is a stock listed US dollars and one listed inCanadian dollars. Let's click on the US listed security. The security trades on the US exchange. It's in US dollars. 182 was in the last price. I want to take a look at the volume, millions traded. I'm going to go to the Canadian listed version of the security. One thing you will notice is the price. Much less than the US version and that's because CDR is give you an opportunity to buy partial units of that security. So one of the advantages of a CDR then is that you are able to enter a position with much less than you would need if you are buying a full share. And so for investors who are looking to diversify, this could be a consideration. Nestling out they will talk about when it comes to CDRs as another advantage is that for investors, you don't have to worry about the potential currency difference between the original security and your local security. That's because CDR's are hedged. Now I do want to mention the one risk when it comes to CDRs. If you recall, when he looked at the US version, it was almost 25 million units traded today. On the other hand, when I look at the volume for the CDR, it's just under 30,000, so significant difference there. Investors want to be aware of this potential risk when it comes to the volume being traded. They may not have enough being traded that day for them to sell or buy into a position. All in all, when it comes to investors deciding to utilize CDRs, they want to compare the risks versus the benefits before they make a decision on if they want to utilize this when it comes to their investing strategies. >> Our thanks to Nugwa Haruna, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars. Now before I get back to your questions about the market for James Dixon, a reminder of how you get in touch with us. Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. We are back with James Dixon, taking your questions about the markets. Lots of them coming until us get through a few of them. Where does your guests see the loonie heading? >> Well, if you look at it against the dollar, it has been in a 133, 137 range forever. So that's the range we have liked to trade. This morning, it broke through that. I have seen that CAD outperform quite strongly just on expectations that the Bank of Canada could actually go again. We will have to wait and see. We discussed why we don't think that's really the case. I think it's still a range bound trade. Maybe set the range slightly lower. Maybe it's a 132, 137 level. I struggle to see the loonie gaining huge momentum against the dollar just yet. And the reason is we talked about that T-bill issuance just as an example. That is going to suck huge amounts of liquidity out of the market. People are going to need dollars to go and buy those treasury bills. So we think it is arranged by market for now. We think that certainly if a soft landing, a soft landing recession comes, that's also supportive. So the range persists. That range obviously gives way if we do see a huge pivot from the Fed and once again they start buying bonds. Then maybe you start opening up or move down to 125, but once again, that's a next year story. This is for now we think it is a range bound story. It's baby 132 to 137 as opposed to 133 two 137. >> Okay, another question here. This one about geopolitics. What are the big geopolitical risks that you focus on? And which of them make you nervous? >> that's a big question. Obviously, I don't know. This war in Ukraine has carried on a lot longer than I thought it would. Both sides seem really stuck in. what does this mean? Does war persist? Do people get jittery? Do we start looking at things like hypersonic missiles? I don't know. That is certainly concerning. I'm less worried about China invading Taiwan. I think that's unlikely. It's difficult to invade an island. And I think it would be very wary due to invade Taiwan after they've seen what happened with Russia and Ukraine. Everyone thought it would be a blitzkrieg, a fast war, but it didn't happen. I think politically the real concern that I worry about long run is trading blocks forming, East versus West. You've seen the Saudi's side with China and Russia. We've got the Western block all banding together. And at the same time, you're kind of seeing your fragment. You got complaints out of Italy about sanctions on Russia because of energy prices. They have come down but they are still punchy. So these are the tensions that I'm waiting to see how they unfold. That's certainly keeping me up at night. Once again, if I was a Chinese businessman, I'd be really worried about what the long-term situation looks like between the Chinese government and the US. Because that Cold War is certainly not going away. It's so funny. When Biden got elected, I was quite bullish and excited. >> Thought may be a smoother path there for China and the US. >> Yeah. Maybe we would see a 180 on China policies. Get away from America first. But they have held that narrative. It's more of the same. Strong tariffs on China. If I was Pres. Xi, I would not be happy about that. These trading blocks forming her a big deal and if that does happen, what does that mean for the future? Do we see technology shared between each block? And if not part of the block, you have access to it? Or you do, but at a huge price? What does it mean for those nations? That's really kind of what I am watching unfold. >> Let's get to another question here. I believe this one came in in French. A little translation has been done for me so I don't have to do it on the fly. Inflation seems to be easing. What a pause tomorrow make sense for the Fed? >> I think we touched on that in the opening remarks. The headline has come down quite significantly. Headline up 4%. The core is still really sticky. That's still north of five. we think there are bigger issues at play. we think it gives them a little bit of breathing room. Because inflation is still well above target, that's why the market thinks they might hike. In our argument which we touched on in the opening remarks, it's really about credit conditions because if credit conditions are extremely tight, there is no lending. If there is no lending, there is no growth. So that's really fuelling our narrative of the Fed being done. We are still seeing a lot of tightening up to now that has until fed into the market yet. We are back to these bond maturities and the liquidity that's going to suck out of the market and the T-bill issuance and what that's going to suck out of the market just on refilling the general account. These are big themes and I am worried about how it squeezes both. >> Interesting stuff. We are going to back your questions for James Dixon on the markets in just a moment's time. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. and a reminder that you can get in touch with us at any time. Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td. com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. US small business optimism saw a modest improvement in me. However, owners still expressing concern for future business condition. Joining us now with the details and TD Economics take on it all is our Anthony Okolie. >> Thanks, Greg. As you mentioned, US small business optimism Index inched higher in me, topping market expectations. The index rolled 0.4% to just above 89 points in me and that marks the 17th consecutive month that the index is below the 49 year average of 98. Now earnings trends expectations regarding higher real sales and improvements in the economy all fell during the month. Plans to boost inventories raise threepoints but it still remained in negative territory at -2%. The biggest gains were in plans to make capital outlays as well as plans to raise average selling prices. I will come back to that. Key areas of concern, inflation bolted back into first place as a top business concern, rising to points to 25%. Meanwhile, the quality of labour concerns, that was a close second at 24%. Now despite these concerns, businesses were focused on hiring more workers last month. The number of small businesses planning to increase and raise compensation and rose last month but still remains below pandemic highs. In addition to that, the number of unfilled job openings remain elevated, falling only 1.44%. Finally, the number of firms planning to hike average selling prices jumped 8 points to 29% versus 20% to the prior month. It appeared to mark a temporary pause and rising prices. Overall, small business owners saw modest improvements in me as persistent concerns continued but labour shortages are still concern given the elevated number of job openings. >> Inflation dominates so many conversations in so many parts of the market. If you are a business owner, it's pretty important. You take a look at this report, what does that say about the picture when it comes to cost pressures? >> Inflation is a big factor. It has vaulted back to the top spot as a number one problem for small business owners followed by the quality of labour. Until recently, we saw a downward trend in the service price metrics, pointing to some signs of cooling and inflation ahead. Now again, that may small business survey is just one month of data, according to TD Economics, but they still believe that May is sharp increase in plans to raise prices complicates the picture for the Fed and suggests that the Fed may have work to do. >> Thanks for that. >> My pleasure. > MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie. Now let's do a check in on the markets. We are having a look at TD's advanced dashboard, this is a platform designed for active traders. We are taking a look at the heat map function and we are screening by the TSX 60, the 60 biggest companies in the TSX Composite Index, and we are also screening by price and volume. You can clearly see from this screen and that the rebound that American branch market prices today, a lot of energy names are dominating not only in terms of volume but to the upside. You got Cenovus up a little more than 3%. You can also CCN Q, Canadian Natural Resources, up almost 3% and a handful of other energy names. Now if we move over to the material section, it's a bit more of a mixed picture. You got the likes of First Quantum up to the tune of 3.8%. That would be FM on your screen. Some of the names levered to gold including Barrick down about 1% and Kinross just sort of flat. If you take a look at the technology area, we will show you some green on the screen, a pocket of weakness now, God Shopify of course, it made some big gains yesterday, it is giving some of that back today, perhaps an indication of a little profit-taking on some of those large gains. You can find more information about TD advanced dashboard by visiting TD.com/advanced dashboard. We are back now a James Dixon from TD Securities, take your questions about the markets. We were talking about commercial real estate earlier. We have someone asking us should I be selling REITs? On the platform, we cannot get buy or sell recommendations or advice but we can definitely talk about REITs and some of the things you really need to be watching out for if you do have that exposure to commercial real estate. >>I certainly would be reducing my exposure to commercial real estate for the reasons I mentioned. I think they're going to be big write-downs. At that doesn't mean that I hate real estate altogether. Once again, I touched on residential real estate. I think that's hot. I think those supply issues remain. I do believe in the real asset story because I think inflation will remain sticky… Just feeding that inflation narrative, I don't know if you saw the story that broke last week from CNBC saying there are supply bottlenecks on 5. 2 billion right now of good sitting there and can't get delivered. It feels like we are back in the COVID days. We do think that this inflation theme persists and if we do see energy prices rebound, it's not only core that remain sticky, then you might see a bit of a bounce back in headline. > An important reminder, of course, that reads are not just about commercial real estate. You want your homework. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. let's get back to a central bank focused question. When does your guests seed the Fed to the BOC lowering interest rates? Where would you allocate you money to take advantage of lower interest rates for the long term? Thanks in advance, Jeff. One of our regular contributors and viewers. Thanks for that one, Jeff. We can't give you advice on where to allocate funds but we can definitely talk about where rate policy might be headed and what things make sense, what sectors make sense coming out of the rate hiking cycle. >> Yeah. I think that for the Fed or any central bank to really start cutting rates, we need to see things… That hasn't happened yet. I think things are starting to crack but we haven't seen the real nastiness come through yet. When that happens, yes, we see… Lifting rates in Q4? Maybe Q1 next year? I think the rate policy itself is going to be choppy. I think what we could see is the Fed or BOC or BOE cut rates and all of a sudden, inflation spikes again. And then they say, oh, no. We will have to hike again. So we could have very short cycles which will make things choppy. I think that the real stimulus comes, once again, from the bond buying. I think that bond buying will be focused on the front end, so it's going to be why CC, even if the Fed doesn't want to call it that, because that's the only way to Stephen yield curves. If inflation is sticky, there's only so much you can do in terms of rate policy because you can't have deeply negative real rates. So I think it's more bond buying on the front-end that we kind of see in big moves and rate policy. If you are looking to allocate, I have to be careful what I say because I'm allowed to say anything yet, typically when you have easier policy, long-duration assets outperform. Things like growth stocks, long bonds, things like that. We are not in the easy part of this phase yet. One that bond buying starts, then yes, we will be there. But I think there's going to be some pain first and I think at this T-bill issuance to refill the general account is going to be a great litmus test for what's to come. >> We are going to squeeze in one more question in the time that we have. I like the way the viewer phrased this one. I'm scared to ask… Oil? >> Oh my God. We have got this wrong! As I said in my opening remarks, we thought oil would have pushed higher with China reopening. That really hasn't happened. Instead, we have seen slowing growth out of China. We are starting to get stimulus coming through. I think that, long term, the supply issues remain. And I think the macro themes are still there. Things like rebuilding of critical infrastructure. Re-shoring of supply chains. Re-militarization. Once again, the supply issues. I think these themes remain. And they haven't changed. So we still are bullish on oil. I think the other thing that maybe the world is not considering is you still got oil sales taking place to China and India below-market prices. Russia is selling a cheat. So one of two things needs to happen. Either those currencies need to appreciate, or oil needs to push higher for the market to reach equilibrium. So we still remain quite bullish on oil. But I think that the way that exposure should be put on is more via equities and, once again, it's because at least they pay dividends and if you are layering and, that helps. And we have actually seen strong buybacks. As much as WBT I has pushed lower, Exxon has held in. Companies have held them. There are still big buybacks going on. We think that if that persists, they are using the opportunity to buy back as equities and there when you come at a premium. >> Always great to have you and get your insights. >> Thank you so much for having me. It's always lovely to be here. >> Our thanks to James Dixon from TD Securities. Of course, you always want to be sure to do your own research before you make any investment decisions. On a programming no, we won't be having a show tomorrow, but MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie is going to be interviewing a top mind at TD to break down the latest US Federal Reserve rate decision. You'll be able to find that on MoneyTalk go., after that decision comes out at 2 PM Eastern time. Then we will come back on Thursday. Alex Gorewicz, poor flow manager for active fixed income with TD Asset Management will be our guest, taking your questions about fixed income. You got a good head start on this one. Get your questions and to us. Email moneytalklive@td.com. That's all the time we have for the show today. Thank you for watching. See you on Thursday. [music]