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[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk live brought you by TD direct investing. They'll be joined by guest across TD many of whom you'll only be seen here. We will tell you more and answer questions on investing. Coming up on today's show, we have TD securities Chris Whelen and on our education segment we have Nugwa Haruna on how you can learn and use platforms to sit up to date on events. And in Google markets as well. Here's how you can get in touch this with your question. Just go to MoneyTalk levity.com and below the video response box right under the video player here on WebBroker. Before we get to our dust of the day, let's get you an update on the market action. First trading day of the week, first trading day of the month and first trading day of the fourth quarter. So far on the market is looking pretty decent, 53 on the TJ's index of more than 400 points with a jump of more than two and almost 1/4% and we are seeing the price of American benchmark crude almost hitting 83 bucks right now. More than 4% and deftly through some money into the energy names in Toronto, OPEC plus and the output is a 1 million barrels per day and in person on Wednesday. If you meet in person, something is going to happen and thus the assumption and will find it for sure in a couple days. Let's take a look at the Suncor right now and see if there's any of these names, representative was happening in the states, 4149 and at .2 and 1/2 bucks and at 6.7%. Something affirming the price of gold as well and that is doing well at more than 1.2%, to six bucks and $0.43 and south of the border, checking on the S&P 500 rallying there as well. 1. 8%, only one day but after the September we had and really the 2022 we have had, if you're on the market that is what you like to see, 6551 on the market and on NASDAQ let's check in on that space as well. Right now, to the tune of 1 1/3%. And as the names on Bay Street so there on Wall Street, also kept patrolling right now, 5.3% to 6470 for that name. And that is your market update. Volatility is been on the rise and central banks continue to deliver the superhigh rate hikes but are there other signs the financial system is beginning to feel the strains of those higher costs? Joining us more for now Chris will and is here Canada's rate of strategists and TD security, great to have you back on the program. >> Great to see you, Chris. >> The expert so let's leave it to you. The financial system and the risk of breaking something, I was thinking heading into the show, for the weekend, I have a deal with a situation like this? >> On the weekend, I was reading the Twitter feed and as my colleagues over the weekend. I know that we opened flat on the open on the S&P futures and that we are doing quite well. We are up on another day. I think the Twitter sphere rumours look a little overdone, but I think that's the impression they were in and they're answering questions all weekend long. I think the financial community at large and there still a lingering concern. I think that the hope is that we have learned something through the financial crisis and where law are capitalized and there's a lot of stock in place to address the contagion of something like Chrysler or Baron Stearns and I think that we feel comfortable with that, but right of how delicate the equity markets have been, the crisis is still lingering concern and for us, it is still a notable point. I think it is nice to see the equity markets shrugging off and rallying today. So, there is some sense of calm somewhat. That makes me feel better at the moment. >> We started the session in the red, poking into the positive right now. And on the screen come up a little more than 1%. It was tough but happened in the United Kingdom. It seemed like a long time ago but it was only last week that the playbook is understood from a central bank, must rate inflation and must remove accommodation from the market and quantitative tightening. We need to buy some bonds, what happened there? >> I think what happened was they pushed to accommodative on the fiscal side. They were pushing and what happened is they laid out their bond markets. Then you have the UK pensions scenario where they own a lot of traders in the long and and what happened was the volatility had them caught in the moment of making margin calls and is a strong financial institutions and we have to create cash and place pressure on the system. They are supporting the system here. And they came in to buy bonds to support that and not have an unnecessary contagion in the think now we are seeing the government in the UK walking back, they are easing policy announcements. I think in the end of the day, what does the UK mean? The UK shows us that the world is fragile that we have to be careful how we move here. We have to be careful to the central bank's credit, with careful how much we use and how we are stimulating the economy right now, but same time in the cliff be conscious of protecting our bond market was much for pension assets in the stock market, we need to protect the bond market in the integrity of the bond market and make it a structurally sound place to invest. I think we are at the point now released are all conscious of doing things at a measure of pace and we will see what that means. At the end of the day, there's no way I'm not concerned in Canada about some sort of volatility event like we saw the UK happening here. We will see. For now we will and are functioning very well. But it is like the credit sourcing, the things that are keeping us up at night. The UK interest rate volatility and credit release in the stock markets is still near the low and that is a fragile world out there. I think it just speaks to that we all need to carefully tread on central banks and governments what they do right now. >> That is a point about the fragility of everything in the year we've had, and credit suites in which the means smeared as amusement bigger? The Bank of England says, this means something for here means something bigger. The Bank of England to get some tongue wagging about, why did the bank have to pivot? And people turning that pivot back much as they can. I feel is there some events we try to pour some cold water and make sure we are still on it. >> I think in all fairness, the UK's story appears to be UK eccentric right now. But we start to get the fragility of credit suites and the credit suite rumours. Whether the materiality is to be determined. When you get the fragility of what is going on in the UK, we have to be alert to that and what is happening here and may be isolated for now and understand that there is to proceed and that this is usual for now. But at the end of the day, we talked with us before, the tenure market in Canada is at around 3% or 3.1%. When you have a tenure of three prints and an inflation 8% and give a similar dynamic in the US I think the bond market is quite clear. Requesting a high interest rate for a long time. This is very temporary situation. I think the end of the day, if there is a fragile situation, that does overdo it. I think they have the tools to get us back up off the bottom again. I think the question is how volatile does that look. We'll see what it involves, and at the end of the day inflation is still high and they're going to continue hiking it until they see meaningful turn their. We have the ice of the in the US today and noticed closeness with the line that was not below 50 which is a general sign for the contracting and after that of that particular sector. I think that we are closer to the end here of hiking. But we will see how well the Fed and even the Bank of Canada can proceed with their hikes and will see if anything breaks. Today is a good day and so we will take it. I think absolutely, fertility is top of mind. But that fragility might also bring positives for the risk pop that exists, for start to slow down here, maybe that can bring a bit back to the credit markets and stock. >> If you like a million years ago, but like the spring of 2020, two half years ago that the pandemic at the Shores. Markets sold off and Marcus rebounded in markets sold off again this year. As far as boom and bust goes, how was it for you, do we can accelerate environment here? >> And that is exactly it, that fragility and how fast we are moving. This feels like the fastest cycle of all time in terms of going from the risks of the great recession to the great inflation, to I don't know what's next. I did the boom and bust cycle, I think the UK is showing us that the boom and bust narrative is still very much there and there is a lot of fragility out there. Absolutely, we are talking about cuts into the back half of next year still. It's not just a hiking cycle, we are talking about cuts in dealing with the potential recession or not and how deep that recession is. And if the inflation narrative is still strong and still lingering for us, or within hiking again? In over them becoming this roller coaster cycle of interest rates? It is certainly possible. The boom and bust, the volatility, the exhaustion of watching your mortgage rates is probably not going anywhere right now, but certainly that environment, absolutely. >> Fascinating stuff and a great start to the show, will get your questions for Chris will and in a moment's time. And you get a chance anytime an email MoneyTalk live at. com or in the of your response box on WebBroker. on the top stars in the world of business and how the markets are trading. The shares of credit suites in the news today, over concerns and its financial health. It released quarterly results at the end of this month and share start the day in the red, as you see there, and it now bounced back into the positive territory. Tesla's latest production numbers are falling short of their expectations, electric vehicle makers say that they deliver 443 vehicles in the third quarter and that is about 20,000 shy vestments. Tesla says that shipping finished with you vehicles has become more difficult than securing some capacity on the shipping channels and the cost of shipping those cars. And bridge financing a change in the guard at the top ranks but a giant and CEO Al Monaco will be retiring on January 1 after 10 years leading company. And bridge says current board chair Greg Abell will have the top job and he will stay on as an advisor until next March. Checking on the markets, checking on Bay Street, the S&P compass index up to 1/2 and building on the gains. 64 points to the up size and south of the border on Wall Street, the S&P 500 and the broader rates the American market. A more than 2% right now 74 points and 3660. We're back knows Chris will and and taking your questions with the economy and interest rates until it's good to them. Here's the thing on a lot of people's minds. If we do get a recession, how deep or long without session be? >> I think that's the golden question right now. my colleague was timely, can be a soft landing, but is going to be pretty bad recession, or O it was bad or maybe it is pretty bad. We'll have to see how this falls. At the end of the day, longer stay at high interest rates, the deeper the recession is likely to be. I think the problem is, how fast the world is moving right now and we were to speak about how the faster the cycles are shifting. Right now, central banks have data which can be located to look at and if the data is shifting quickly and they don't realize that soon enough because of the issues inherent in data and collecting it get a real time or read, the we pose a risk of a greater recession risk. I think at the end of the day, recession risks, everything looks quite rosy at the moment. And that is why they are hiking. Although the growth is slowing, you have to take a moment to assess the inflation risk versus the growth impact. I think at the end of the day, the recession, it is too hard to say how deep it is going to be. I think at the end of the day, we're trying to value inflation risks and inflation is an exceptional component. What will this recession look like? This is special with different because of the job market. I think we have to understand is that this would be a different form of recession for now and it is way too difficult to quantify how the recession would be with the way were looking. I think we can absolutely say that the trajectory of the interest rates and we were going, the stock market is telling us that this is not to be favourable for the economy and I think the stock market is probably one of your best forecasters of where the pain is going to be. I think at the end of the day, that the stock market is telling you that her session is coming. The risks that are very high. >> Another question right now, these people have these big concerns on her mind. With the Bank of Canada or the Fed have to buy bonds but the Bank of England adjusted? We had a bit of this and the opening, as someplace where the hands be forced? >> It comes back to what we are saying earlier. The issue UK is likely UK centric from the set up in the guiding of derivative exposures in the long end. The Bank of Canada will generally step in if the markets are not functioning. We reached the point where there is a lack of function and there is concern on that respect, it will jump in. But where are we and where we would estimate the probability of them coming in anytime soon? We don't estimate it will come in anytime soon. The volatility or I would say the behaviour of our bond market in Canada is functioning. As far as they're concerned, it is fully functioning right now. As we stand, can they come in? Are they likely to? Unlikely. We need something like that hundred room movement in one day like the UK saw to start to dictate that kind of behaviour. Right now we don't see any signs of that. >> Ultimately, we talked with the first question with the recession, is that you can have inflation entrenched. For all the headlines you have, or people starting to the side of the fact that inflation entrenched over the long term is very dangerous thing for an economy? >> I think that is a general philosophy of central banks, they have to take care of inflation and that is extremely problematic longer term. That is the overarching philosophy that is dictating what is going on right now. That is why we are seeing the narrative and the constant interest in, we have to give some leeway for us to take care of inflation. I think that that is the philosophy and that is what is driving what they're doing right now. I think they worked from soft landing, don't worry, this is okay too, is not really was be okay we need to do this other ways. I think that's where we are at and I think that the unfortunate reality of where we are. >> Another question, on the US dollar, will the strength continue? It is up into the right as they say? >> The dollar strength, you have the safe haven aspect where it is arguably from a bear equities and market right now, the dollar benefits from that in that kind of environment and liquidity situation. If you roll forward to the new year, future interest rate hikes are done, the US benefits from that, that strong hiking cycle in their interest rates and that will help the dollar as well. If that starts to subside in the coming months as we forecasted, the dollar starts to look weaker. And the risk markets can start to find a footing here, that would also put pressure on the dollar were lower. I think the problem is that for now we absolutely have a strong dollar regime and the right thing to do is to expect that to continue and I think the second point to make is that you can move a lot in the last innings of a regime. The dollar can go a lot further. There were closer to the end of this large dollar rally or venture sideways return next year? I think there are two things there. The dollar turning round and maybe not continuing this to mean that there isn't a lot more room left for the dollar to turn around. For now, the concerns over liquidity in the barren stern risk markets, the firm hand of the Federal Reserve continuing to hike interest rates higher, these are all dollar positives. >> We talked earlier about the possibility of the said or another breaking something, and I want to talk about US dollar is a steamroll. If the dollar continues strong, and to thus turn around, there a lot of the asset classes or even other some economies in that pressure. >> Absolutely and I think that the overarching theme right now. It's the weakness in those currencies and the fragility that that causes, that they import, no more inflation and causing no more pain during this inflation era. That is not helpful to weaker currencies and you also get that immersion with the weakness, it is not a sign of a roaring stock market or strong times for riskier assets like stocks or emerging markets. Absolutely, great point there. That is exactly what is trying to allude to before, this traditional relationship of strong dollar with equally strong markets and then hopefully, stronger stock markets next year and a weaker dollar so we can go on vacation to the US. >> Or they sneak away are not as worried as you are! Take a break in the question, and always do your research before making investment decisions and will go back to questions for Chris Whelen. And her right of course and get in touch with us anytime. Email MoneyTalk live@td. com. Let's get to our educational segment for today. Economic data releases can sometimes move the markets and if you want to keep on top of what is happening and what is on the horizon, WebBroker has tools that can help you. Joining us now for more Nugwa Haruna with TD direct investing. Always good to see you! Let's jump right in, were confined this economic data on WebBroker? >> Hi Greg and as you've noticed in the last few months, anytime there is a forecast or news unchanged in economic events, it is time to move the markets so if investors want to stay up-to-date on whence of these announcements on these upcoming events are as well as went some of the indicators have been in the past, they're able to do that using WebBroker. In WebBroker an investor will click on research and click on reports. Once here, the investor actions the opportunity if you go to the right side of your screen there, to pull up the TD economics page. Once you do that, I've open this page for us and you go to the TD economics page you will go here now. Once the investors can see information on the Canadian economy, the US economy or the global economy as a whole. Going to focus on Canada for the segment as were going to click on the weekly bottom line. This is something that is published at the end of every week giving investors an idea of what some of the highlights are the United States which we do know tends to impact Canadian markets. So, Canadian highlights as well. What I want to highlight here would be to specific links that are made available. The first view this week in the market, and click on that. What this provides investors is just a summary of what is happening some of the major markets. We're going to see changes, weekly changes, in markets such as the United States, Canada, some European markets and some Asian markets. Investors see changes in information such as the US 10 year treasury yield knowing that this yield is actually very important and investors tend to watch this for any changes in the specific field. And that's because increases in the 10 year yield have historically been tied to the third year mortgage rates as well as essential costs and it is just good to keep track of that. They want to see relations on that and they can see that by pulling up this report. One more report that investors can pull up will be upcoming economic releases and events. What this does is it provides investors with any information of upcoming events for this week. Use information on the United States, but most importantly, for us in Canada, this information for the Canadian market. I will highlight that for instance on Friday, October 7 through been answered at 830 on the unemployment rate for September in Canada. This also going to be a US and has been on October 7 on the unemployment rate. Investors were interested can actually log into WebBroker to take a look or log onto the news to see with the newer rates would be. >> Always a big one on both sides of the border and we just saw there we can get the reports from these major announcements. What if an investor wants to track for themselves what is on the horizon? How would you do that? >> Within WebBroker itself, investors able to do one of two things. Firstly, find investor, I've securities with my portfolio I want to see what upcoming events there are for, specifically related to my portfolio and I can do that WebBroker. To show us how to do that, I will go back to the main homepage and while I'm on this page, I just need to scroll down and I will be able to see the events for the securities in my accounts for this specific week. If I have any earnings announcements for securities in my portfolio any dividends announcements, any ex dividend dates coming up or payment dates, idols able to see information any rate changes for securities in my portfolio. One more thing that an investor can do is that in WebBroker, if you don't want to have to go to another website of the new TD economics page, you can also plop upcoming events within WebBroker. If I click on research, and I went to events, once I'm here I can change the specific dates. We just assessed October 7 which is very important and I can actually switch over my dates here to October 7 and once I'm there, focusing on the Canadian markets, I can pull up economic events and I will be able to see that as we've established it is going to be an update on the unemployment rate in Canada and I can always toggle over to the US market if that is something that interest me. Once again, highlighting economic events. And I can see what announcements they have on that date as well. >> Great stuff as always, thanks for that! >> Thanks for having me. >> Make sure to check the Learning Center on WebBroker for more videos, lives, master classes and upcoming webinars. Before the vector questions but interest rates in the economy for Chris Whalen, a reminder of how you can get in touch with us. If it's a question of investing or what is driving the markets, our guests are eager to hear what is on your mind so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at MoneyTalk live@td.com or you can use the question box below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk live. We're back knows Chris Whelen and senior questions about the economy and interest rates and let's get back to them. Someone asking, with these recession fears out there, how's the health of the labour market looking? We don't know who will know for sure, but how are we feeling? >> The labour market, if you could go back in three or four months, the labour market with a strong as it gets, these pressures there was low unemployment and constant anecdotes on inability to hire. The labour market, you're naturally three-month for the labour market just to climb out of nowhere. The strength is to prevail it, but the problem of the labour market right now is the uncertainty in the economy and uncertainty about businesses and the overall concern about the overall business environment. Naturally, the first step is hiring freezes and just accepting lower business activity but to manage risk at your business and then the next phase is the layoff aside. I think at the end of the day, sometimes that can hurt GDP because you have a productivity hit from when you can't get the labour you need, you can deliver the productivity and secondarily, when you hire freeze because of the uncertainty and the interest rates are so high, from the inflation, this is the overall concerns and you put a hiring freeze in place, your productivity again and you hurt GDP and GDP declines and then you have the recession invocation or risks of layoffs. I think at the end of the day, the peak strength of the labour market is behind us for now and I think we are only heading into a deterioration of the labour market in part due to the deterioration which is by design by the central banks. I think at the end of the day, we are asked that transition toward the softer labour market, absolutely, even though there is still underlying strength and wage pressures. It is an interesting time there. I think that the interest rate heights are doing a great job the uncertainty is slowing everything down. >> Even before the pandemic, word about productivity in Canada in terms of growing our economy and will be achieving productivity goals. And then it throw something on its head as we talked about, this boom and bust cycles. The speed at which we went from a labour market that was so hot they could walk around, and this does offer me this much and I'm going to take this! And everything turning. Maybe we will get back on a course will start to address those productivity issues in the countries. In longer term, thus will grow our economy, productivity? >> And it was nice to see the announcement that wanted Target integration in areas of jobs that we need. I think that materializes, that can be a nice sign of productivity on a going forward basis. Maybe we can finally get those homes built. And that would been meaning to for so long. I think at the end of the day, what Canada has going for itself relative to the other developed nations is that strong immigration policy. Most immigration wants to go to the US, however, Canada is still high up on the desirability list and we are the ones with the openings relative to the size of our economy. The immigration provides a buffer to our economy and helps us. Ideally, that step of taking and matching immigration with the job and where we feel the most acutely of pressure from a lack of availability, it's a great step in that direction. Hopefully, that materializes and the integration is still a good thing. I think this is the best you can do at the moment, is not an easy thing to address. >> When the government can address these issues, dressing the bank as well. And from our other segment, and the Canadian housing market, there's a great cooldown but some people argue that integrations for the longer term. >> Exactly, I think at the end of the day, talking with my colleagues, look how low the sales numbers were for the last couple of months. It is a season of slow time in the summer, but at the end of the day, the sails can only stay so for so long if it is the immigration need an immigration story there. It does provide a buffer. I think some stability and interest rates can allow people to wrap their heads around what is going on and when they can fix and that rate if they are okay with that and that can allow some decision process. I think also we are conditioned to believe that these are only here temporarily, that might get people passed making that decision. We'll see how that materializes. I know personally, my personal side, I was late to the side when the Canadian tenure is like we did earlier in the show, at 3% right now and that reflects that the straight rates will be at 10% and will be for a long time. In Canada at that rate. At the end of the day believing that we are not good have this kind of acute rate pressure for a sustained period of time. But if the 0% had gone for a while, will probably. We will see what we realize. But then today, immigration provides a buffer and the most leveraged consumers are most at risk. At the end of the day, if you're up for renewal, you've paid your mortgage down of the last five years and I think that people can do a lot to protect staying in their home and I think you can refinance again and extend the advertising out and you can refinance the whole event. I think that there are tools out there for people that want to keep their home. I don't necessarily see that acute problem. I think Canada has long been able to show that we are quite resilient, Canadians value their homes. And we have been through this pressure and I think our view is not something dire. But we totally can appreciate that the correction in the interest rate can make the costs more expensive. I think we are more in the camp that you kind of muddle through to the next while as they continue hiking interest rates again and they don't stop for another four or five months, you might get some exhaustion from the consumer side and that I be quite scary to buy a house. Maybe that delay in bottoming process further has a market which doesn't happen for a while maybe will be a strong spring market, but at the end of the day, the material housing price declines are not a risk that we are concerned about. >> With the Canadian housing situation right now, here's a question we're getting right now, but the rising rate environment. Questions about GICs, how does GIC stack up against bonds right now? Two things that people are talking but a lot before. >> GIC is looking pretty good these days with their rates, we are not used to seeing these kinds of interest rates on savings for a long time. I think the downside on a GICs is that you are locked in for one year and the upside is that you're getting such a high rate of return right now for a very safe asset. I think the GIC is a lot more about your risk profile. If you're looking to put some of your savings into the equity markets, in my already locked up for a year as you might've missed her opportunity to put that money into work or start shifting that way. I think it is a liquidity question and risk tolerance question, and at the same time, if the bond market, producer to get to a rate cutting environment, bonds outperform GICs as they rally. However, are we there yet? We are still in a hike cycle and were still in the bottom of the market. I think a lot of it depends on the risk tolerance profile of the investor and the liquidity trade-off and it is really all about this. There's no arguing against the attractiveness of GICs in the high rate of interest in the safety relative to industry. I think it all depends on the investor profile. >> That your questions for Chris Wheeler and on the common interest rates in a moment's time. Make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions and as a reminder, we can get in touch with us anytime. The question of investing what is driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear was on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send an email anytime a MoneyTalk live@td. com or you can use the question box below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk live. Among the volatile rises but on this year, the oil market has been one of them, today it is down and recession fears on the US block, but now talking about potential OPEC reduction costs. A lot of things that play and Anthony joins us now, looking at TD securities. >> T securities has shown the down look for oil in 2022, with an Outlook remaining essentially unchanged. Now, as you can see in this chart that I bought along TD securities is calling for West Texas intermediate, WTI at about $95 US per barrel. That is down 5% from the previous forecast. The forecast for Brent which is the international benchmark for crude oil is down 4% to just over hundred dollars in US per barrel. We look at Western Canadian select which is a benchmark price for Canadian accrual is downgraded to $100 Canadian and of course, the BCS trading at a price differential to WTI which amounts to just under $13 US per barrel back in 2021. For 2023, TD's long term you was relatively unchanged although, they'll now forecasting at 3% and 7% increases in a Canadian rate count at a hike event forecast. >> That is the price of crude in the forecast. And talk about expiration production, but also some of the services. What is he did securities have to say about that? >>they are pressing in a recession. But they do believe that energy companies are pretty competitive compared to the exploration and production peers. >> As always, thanks for the Anthony. Alice check in on the market action right now. As we said, first day of the week and first of the month and first of the last quarter of the year. 18,860, and 424 points right now in the TSX for a gain of 2 1/3% as we're just talking with Anthony about the price of crude, it is on the balance higher today, 82 and 81 on my screen come up 4%. And that is feeding into the energy trade at Crescent point along them at nine bucks and a penny a share of the even at 6% and seeing some of this today is gold studies itself making some gains on Friday I believe as well. 2454 right now in the first quarter of more than a share of more than 4 1/2%. In south of the border, served on the S&P 500, with the American market, just shy of 2% gain for the first trading day of the week at 60 points of the week and the upside else check NASDAQ and we are still pretty solidly gain from the tech heavy NASDAQ not quite as firm as one and 1/2%. In Tesla as he told of the top of the show, disappointing the stream in terms of the delivery in this quarter at 20 to 4 bucks and change and down now to the tune of 8 1/2%. Let's get back to you or viewer questions for Chris Whelen. Once the bank of Canada hits and inflation Target, how long before the cuts come? >> The cuts might come before the bank hits the inflation Target because of the Outlook. And then kind of environment that we are in. If we are in a recession and we know the risks to inflation are, we know there's a downside and if we are heading into that environment, that becomes clear to the bank of Canada there cutting whether or not we get the inflation Target. We ask you don't need the inflation Target for them to cut because it is all about where the inflation and where inflation is moving to. The Bank of Canada uses surveys to look at inflation expectations in that environment and inflation expectations are coming very quickly and very fast and with the risk to the economy, they are moving to the downside. As such, inflation will be protected by the Bank of Canada to be much lower. They can cut before you get back to 2%. >> That is interesting. As a final thought, as extrapolate to the banks, I guess they don't need to see the whites in their eyes? They said it is 1.3 range, but as we close this or to assess that and they can say the mission is accomplished? That could be theirs with the Fed might be thinking, going forward. >>our philosophy is been that Canada would stop taking further. And basically send same thing, relative to the US, Canada will feel the pain for us because of the interest rate sensitivity. Now, as it feeds through on the US side, can they hold out for longer? Yes, and at the end of the day if you're going into recession in Canada, given the positive commodity background, even the positive immigration dynamics, the US is likely going into recession at same time and likely global dynamics, not just in Canada and even so, even if Canada was feeling a more acutely, the US and feeling it as well. I think you will be just shortly behind us in their cutting and would happen to the same degree as here? That's to be determined. Canada has more sensitivities, but the US would be looking at cuts as well. That was what I was alluding to, that we can have a large bond rally before it goes back to what I said at the beginning. Sometimes, it is the regime that we are in is going to change comes it does mean you can have a lot of price action before you get there. So, to be determined. But, yes there is can be in the cut pretty soon too. >> Always a fascinating discussion, thanks much for joining us today Chris. Senior strategist at TD direct investing, Chris Whalen. Stay tuned on tomorrow's show, Justin Flowerday, head of public equities at TD asset management, taking your questions in the market you have to wait, get your questions in ahead of time to schema MoneyTalk live@td.com. That's all for the show today, thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow! [music]