Bart Melek

[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing.

Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here.

We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing.

Coming up on today's show, we are going to discuss the outlook for oil as the trades were off the recent highs despite continued geopolitical tensions. It Bart Melek from TD Securities as our guest.

MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie is going to have a look at the latest report from the Bank of Canada, what they might be telling us about next month's rate decision.

And in today's WebBroker education segment, Bryan Rogers will walk us through stop losses and how you can use them on the WebBroker platform.

Here's how you get in touch with us.

Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.

Before we get our guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets.

A lot of earnings coming out of Canada today. Not a lot of them received positively. We have some gains on the TSX Composite Index.

It also helps that oil is sort of stabilizing after a couple days of losses, as with gold. 225 points to the upside, more than a full percent. Amongst the most actively traded names are some companies that have been reporting after the close yesterday. We have Suncor Energy right now up about 5%, 45 bucks and change. Manulife also on the heels of its latest earnings report putting points on the table as well. 2576, the life Co. is up 3 1/3%.

South of the border, want to take on the S&P 500. Jerome Powell has been making the rounds this week. The first speech that landed today didn't have much to say about monetary policy.

The market is watching. Drop a very modest four points. It is a hot streak for the S&P 500 but it barely got over the breakeven lion yesterday. It's up 1/10 of a percent. The NASDAQ in terms of the tech trade, about the same amount, keeping pace with the broader market. Disney was out after the close of market yesterday.

Investors like what they are hearing. More cost-cutting measures being announced, apparently adding more subscribers to the Disney plus service than expected so the stock is at more than 7% and 90 bucks and $0.66 per share. And that is your market update.

The price of oil as well off the highs of recent weeks despite continuing conflict in the Middle East.

Joining us now to discuss, Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Great to have you back on the program.

>> Wonderful to be back.

>> Oil is stabilizing now but the past couple of days was a pretty dramatic pullback despite heightened geopolitical risk. What is happening in the oil trade?

>> One, I think it to your comments on the geopolitical risk, I think the market has gotten used to the conflict in the Middle East with Israel operating in Gaza, their military force doing what was mandated.

And really, we are not seeing signs at this stage that this is going to be morphing into a broader conflict, which could involve its neighbours like Iran, for example. There were concerns when this conflict started that there could be a problem in the Straits of Hormuz where the traffic of cruise through the Straits of Hormuz, roughly 70 million barrels per day, depending on the time of the year, could be interrupted. At this point, with US military presence there, I think there are no signs that this is going out of control, no signs that this is spreading into Saudi Arabia conflict potentially interrupting their flows or pipeline issues because of the conflict. The market is a little bit more relaxed and that premium is for the most part gone. The other thing that is being a negative factor is… Have been easing off. There is a concern that demand for product, diesel, gasoline, has eroded some blood and of course worried that China continues to perform weakly, weakness in Chinese economy, and we are looking at a potential recession in the United States because of the significant tightening of monetary policy, and in Europe and in other places it looks like they are already in recession. So there are well defined demand concerns.

>> I have West Texas intermediate right now at about $76, you said stabilizing after losses of several days. In the coming months, what are you anticipating for the price of crude? It could move higher or is this its resting place for a while?

>> We still think that oil can do a lot better, whether it's in a month or whether it's two months, you can never be sure.

These markets can take you for a ride sometimes. But we do think that into the first quarter of next year, around $90 level is very possible and we are basing this on several variables.

>> I'm wondering what would take us there?

>> One, we expect Saudi Arabia and Russia, as the announced recently, to limit their supply.

They are going to extend their cuts for the foreseeable future, as far as I'm concerned, and that implies that this quarter we are going to probably have as much as 900,000 barrels of deficit per day, which means already very, very low inventories globally could drop even further.

We are likely to have according to a Chinese oil company a 10% increase over the next few months in demand there. And once we are convinced that the Federal Reserve will pivot to a more dovish policy or a less hawkish policy, if you like, we can see speculative money back in and with that, we think that as the economy rebounds, probably in the second half of the year, maybe the second quarter, so we bottom, prices go down ahead but as we think that the economy starts rebounding and supplies are tight, we see speculative money coming back and bringing it higher again. We think around $90 is still very possible because of the supply fundamentals on the production side, and on the inventory side, all leading us to believe that this very well may be the lowest level forward now. We will be range bound for a bit but we expect better times for oil. As you mention Fed policy, interest rate. There have been times this year where what the Fed was telling the market, especially in the bond market, didn't agree. What about commodities? How has the commodities market been reading with been coming out of the Fed's mouth?

>> The bond market I think is looking past through what the Fed has been saying, maybe not really buying into the idea that we are going to stay higher for longer, maybe not buying into the idea that there's another one or two hikes ahead in the oil market, for example, despite the fact we are heading for recession and despite the fact that China is underperforming expectations in the post-COVID world, we are still looking at around a million barrels of demand growth.

We are not looking at declines in demand, we are looking at slower rates of growth.

And that's very important because what it will mean essentially is that when inventories are low and demand is strong, during that restocking period, there could be stresses and higher prices.

That also applies for copper, silver and others.

So the market, I'm not sure is buying into a prolonged restrictive monetary policy from the Fed.

And we also see along the yield curve as well where we have seen those healed, off on the longer end of the curve.

Expectation is that the economy is going to slow, rates will likely fall and so will inflation. That ultimately means that probably policy rates may not be as restrictive as the Fed is saying. But they have no choice. They have to say that until we are closer to the target. As you are talking about demand continuing to grow but just not at the aggressive pace.

I've seen many conflicting headlines about oil Peking.

If we step back and look at the next couple of years for oil, what should we be thinking about growth in demand?

>> I don't think it's going to be 2 million barrels plus, but next year, maybe 900,000 barrels to a million barrels. The year after that, probably something similar. The year after that, maybe a little less.

Structurally, I don't think we can say that we have reached peak demand for quite a few years. It's not exactly like EVs are flying off the shelf. We are hearing constraints where they are running out of electric motors.

There have been reductions, sales have been great.

>> A lot of the automakers are saying, we are going to take our foot off the pedal, to use that analogy, when it comes to EV production because we are not seeing the robust demand that we thought there would be at this point.

>> You look at the rest of the world, these are expensive vehicles. There are challenges in terms of infrastructure.

It's not like you can charge it everywhere.

And let's face it, as the emerging world, emerging economies grow and demand vehicle increases, they are not necessarily going to want EVs. So we might see slower growth, but we are not transforming just yet.

I have no doubt that eventually that will happen, but I am not so sure that's going to happen on the schedules that people were hoping for. And there is such a thing as a shortage of critical mineral capacity going forward where even if you had all the good intentions, you had all the generator capacity for charging and infrastructure, you may not have the medals that you use for batteries to be able to build them all in the amounts that you want. Copper is one, not necessarily for the batteries but for everything from electric motors to wiring to transformers that you need it may very well be scarce in six, seven, actually, we think three, four years, there might be problems. So the idea that we are going to have this exponential growth in copper demand because of switching into a net zero carbon environment may be more optimism than reality because there are some real constraints across the entire supply chain that would make that possible. So for now, I think, oil continues to be the alternative for the transportation sector.

Yes, I think there will be diminishing growth rates, but still positive over the next few years for sure.

Over the very long, over the medium to long term, yeah, we could peak, but how will prices be impacted? It will very much depend on what happens on the supply side.

>> Always interesting insights with Bart Melek. We are going to get your questions on commodities for Bart in just a moment's time.

A reminder that you can get in touch with us at any time.

Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.

Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.

Canadian Tire says it will cut 3% of its workforce as changing consumer behaviours weigh on its business. The retailer also says it will eliminate the majority of its current job vacancies. All this aims to cut costs.

Cash-strapped households have been shifting their spending toward essentials such as groceries and away from some of the discretionary items that are sold by retailers like Canadian Tire. Canadian Tire down a little more than 1%.

Summer blockbusters Barbie and Oppenheimer continue to draw moviegoers into Cineplex theatres. The company topping analyst expectations on the top and bottom lines for the most recent quarter.

In a note to clients, TD Cowen says that the tentative deal reached last night in the Hollywood actors strike removes a significant overhang for the industry and Cineplex shares are currently up a little bit more than 4%. I want to check in on the shares of Rogers Communications. They got a big boost to the open this morning.

This is on the heels of the company's latest earnings reports. It is only once again, of about 5%. Saw strong earnings growth for its wireless business and said it's integration of Shaw's running ahead of schedule. If you are a UFC fan, Rogers Sportsnet is also have a UFC return. A quick check in on the benchmark indices.

We will start here at home on Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index.

We've got some green on the screen, after sundown sessions. The price of oil is settling and making modest gains, the price of gold doing the same, and earnings reports moving for some big companies.

Europe 221, more than 1%. South of the border, the S&P 500 is on a hot streak, it's just hanging in there. I'm a very modest two points or just five ticks.

We are back with Bart Melek from TD Securities, we are taking your questions about commodities so let's get to them.

Someone wants to know, how come Gold isn't performing better given all the risk out there?

>> Well, I would argue that gold is performing very, very well considering the fact that we are at 550 basis points of said funds that we were seeing the highest rates in 20 years plus. Geopolitically, we are… We were higher, but that risk has come off and carry costs, I think, the big macro picture is really what at this point is driving it lower. I would argue that gold is actually beating expectations given the interest rate environment. But I will acknowledge that I am not fully sure I agree with the market about geo-political risk being all settled. I think there's still plenty in there and the market may be a little too quick to declare all clear on that front. And we are very much seeing robust central bank buying. We have seen reports from the Central Bank of Poland, the Central Bank of China for the last month and the previous month, the central bank of Bolivia last month, they continue to buy gold. I think, ultimately, gold is very well. It's just the interest rate environment is not conducive for a better price.

>> This is interesting. I feel there was a time where central banks were more neutral towards that goal. Suddenly, central bank buying it is intriguing.

>> Central bank buying has been very, very, very strong.

Last year we had 1136 tons, an all-time record. We are seeing the greatest holdings of gold since the Bretton Woods system broke down. Central banks are again liking gold mainly because they want to offset the risk of holding the US dollar.

Several things are happening in the United States. They are producing an awful lot of new debt. Deficits are at record levels and there are concerns that there may be a temptation in the United States to monetize the problem as opposed to taxing individuals to pay for all the programs and other government spending that happens in the United States.

And that's probably not inaccurate to say.

I think the preference of the population in the US has been to have a lot of services, a lot of spending and taxes. At some point, that has to be paid for and there are strong contingents out there who think that may be through monetization and erosion of purchasing power and hence that hedging on the part of central banks.

Their time horizons tend to be very, very long term.

Certainly longer than individuals, they are supposed to be for countries. We are also seeing a potential adjustment away from the US dollar because global trade has changed.

It's not Europe US mostly anymore. Of course, China and emerging markets have become much bigger players.

It is difficult position in other currencies other than some of the key Western ones like the US dollar, UK, euro or Canadian for central banks. I'm not sure you might want to go into the R&B, but gold is something that is seen as stable and it is also seen as an asset class that isn't anybody else's liability.

Once you have an ounce or a ton, you don't have to rely on anybody to pay out to. It has an intrinsic value that is independent of anybody else's willingness to pay like a bond is, for example. There is a concern out there also that you might have tensions in the world, potentially between China and the United States. One flashpoint is said to be potentially Taiwan. Based on the experience with Russia which had very large FX reserves they were sanctioned and most of it could not be used.

They also had a lot of gold and the gold has proven to be quite resilient and quite difficult to sanction because it can flow physically and you can move that material with friendlier domiciles. So I think we are not certainly predicting any conflicts between China and the United States, but I think in general it should be acknowledge that those tensions have risen and continue to rise. So the policy very well may be to diversify the FX holdings which are well over $3 trillion with a small proportion of gold, only about 4%, to maybe have more assets that are independent or resistant to any potential sanction. I think that's been happening with the People's Bank of China for the last 12 months or so, they are buying gold quite actively.

We expect that to continue and that is going to be, I think, one factor that has prevented, for example, gold from moving lower in a higher interest rate environment, once that macroenvironment turns, I think it's going to add some upward pressure to prices as well.

>> That question has been around for a while and I asked the right man. Next question. What does the end of the Fed's rate hiking cycle mean for the commodity sector? What about some of the other commodities?

>> Generally speaking, I think the commodity market will probably respond way ahead of any actual cuts. And the explanation is relatively simple. For one, the cost of carry for commodities, the financing cost to hold inventories or to take positions will go down, make it cheaper to hold. Second, we will expect with lower interest rates the economy to start rebounding the same way as it contracted to higher rates, it's logical to say that it will do better once rates are lower. And that means ultimately we will see pressure from the demand-side and let's not forget: inventory levels, we already mentioned for oil but for copper and other key commodities, are quite low.

Much of it has to do with the fact that we haven't been really investing on the supply side to increase capacity. We've had COVID and some other constraints. We have had shipping constraints. So inventories are low and once the Fed policy turns and presumably other central banks, we are going to get spending inflows, people taking long position, but also actual companies and users of the stuff to make things with me start a restocking cycle where they are going to have to start building inventories in house so they have it ready for demand.

Let's say cars might need copper.

You might need… Platinum, you might need silver. So you might want to have it in your inventory a little bit before you start selling it because it takes time logistically to build vehicles, to get everything arranged. So the combination of speculative flows, restocking and then just outright demand improvements.

>> As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.

we are going to get back to your questions for Bart Melek on commodities in just a moment's time. A reminder, of course, you can get in touch with us at any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com.

Now, let's get our educational segment of the day.

Stop losses are one possible option for investors who trade on WebBroker. Joining us now to discuss how they work and how we use them on the platform is Bryan Rogers, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing.

Bryan, walk us through a stop order and why we might want to use one.

>> Yeah, absolutely, Greg. It's one of those orders that if you are new to investing you may not have heard of and even if you've been investing for a while you might not have had the chance to use them.

Stop orders are normally associated with a cell, so when you're selling stock, and we know that if we want to sell a stock we can do it ourselves manually, we can put out a market order that goes through immediately with the current market price.

If we have a limit order, we can specify a price and we can do that about the current market, we will say we are chasing a price or try to get a better price. But a stop order, is like an emergency break.

I think of it as if you're driving on an upward slope in your car loses momentum and starts rolling backward, you can pull that emergency break and may you prevent yourself from a greater loss and protect your profit as well.

So they are always entered below the market because you want to make sure you are protecting something.

You don't necessarily want to sell your stock when you are using your stop order but you want to know that if the price drops even get out of price that will be favourable to you.

You may not be watching as well so you can fix it and forget it and that if it does drop you know you are hopefully going to get out of that lower price.

What we will do is take everyone through on WebBroker how you would enter that end.

Then you will know there is more information you can get. But to give you guidelines on how to do a trade like this, I know you mentioned earlier that Suncor was up of it today. Let's say is hypothetical that if you had bought some core a while ago around $40 and now you've got a little bit more than five dollar profit and you want to do maybe, you still want to hold the stock, you still see an upward trend but you are thinking, maybe if I can get at least three dollars of that profit hold onto it, you can set a stop order and click on the cell tab here, that's going to open up an order ticket.

Let's say we bought it at 40 and we want to keep that three dollar profit so we want to get out at around 43.

You wouldn't put in $43 necessarily. What will happen is you can select down here instead of market or limit, the most common is probably a stock market order.

What that means is you put in your quantity, say you own 100 shares, you would set a trigger price that the order is going to trigger it. You have to do a bit of quick mental math here and say, okay, it's at 4536.

If I want to get out of 43 approximately, if I want around it, I can do to dollars, know I will get a little bit more profit.

I'm doing that math backwards for you.

So you put in 43, you subtract that amount they think it's gonna drop by. You put in your $43. You bought it at 40. You're going to have that three dollar profit.

It's going to trigger at $43 if it starts to drop and it's going to enter a market order.

There is a limit element you can do this to you. I personally like the stock market order because I know it's guaranteed to go through.

But you can enter a trigger and you could also set a limit order as well and that's under the stock market or stop limit order, sorry.

>> I recall when I first started learning about stop orders, I thought, I get it but at the same time, I didn't feel 100% confident back in the day to use them. So if you want to do a deeper dive into some of this and learn more about stop orders and other order types, where do we go on the platform?

>> That's a good question, Greg. I've been doing this for years and I even stumble now.

There are also trading stop orders where you're setting a number that's going to offset so there's a lot of information here. If you are looking at even just getting into the basics about stop orders in learning more, we do have a lot of great material on WebBroker.

Let me jump in and I will show you there are a couple of different ways to do this.

One is under the same area.

You're in the order ticket. You can click on the? Right here and that will take you, you scroll down a little bit. bit. bit.

bit. order, a limit order. You keep going, there stock market, stop limit. There's a quick explanation. If you feel like that's enough you can read about that.

But then if I close this, I'm going to close both, you can go back into WebBroker, click on the learn tab and we have a whole course, video lessons. I will click on video lessons. There are master classes here as well.

But if you go instead of lesson, you click on courses here, it may be different for everyone, but I believe it's on the third tab. So I click over to the number three at the bottom and there you go, there is an order entry essentials for stocks and ETFs.

If I click that, you're gonna see there is a video that has all different areas of information. If we are talking stop orders, you can just watch the stop orders video. What is the difference between stock market, stop limit and trading stops.

You get all you need to know about stop orders by watching those videos and you could even attend a live class if you want to learn more about the different order types.

>> A valuable resource there. Thanks, Bryan.

>> Thanks, Greg.

>> Bryan Rogers, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing.

And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars.

Okay, we are back with Bart Melek, we are taking your questions about commodities.

This one just came in in the past couple of minutes. Does your guest see an opportunity and materials for the EV sector?

You talked about the metals that will be necessary for electrification.

>> Absolutely. There is really no EVs or electrification without metals. They are an integral ingredient in making EVs, and those metals include copper, I think, is the most important, nickel, of course, lithium, we don't cover lithium as closely as we cover other metals, even platinum and palladium for the hydrogen economy if you are using power cells. All of those are key. Silver is another one that's not always talked about as a key one. But silver, and EV vehicle will use as much as 2 ounces, maybe more or less, and that is up from very little silver being used in a standard vehicle.

So there is, I think, great opportunity.

This is more of a medium to a long-term opportunity.

The loading of these metals and EVs, like copper, like silver, you mentioned nickel and others, is much higher than in standard vehicles, and the key is to why it will present an opportunity is there is a very limited supply. An even more important than the supplier, there is more limited Acts or new investment, and we need to remember than it takes I would say a minimum of a decade now to put him IN into production.

>> So what's happening there? There is no shortage of headlines about the electrification of everything, a lot of people know this. Why are the mining companies and saying, well, we have to dig this stuff out of the ground if the demand is there. What's going on?

>> There's really no investor appetite for that.

In fact, typically speaking, even with all the carbon capture that the copper mining industry, it has made huge strides, there is a general perception out there that you don't want to invest in so-called carbon heavy industries and that includes mining, that includes oil and other facilities that process these ingredients that will be critical to this. It seems that we want it both ways.

We don't want CO2 boat we don't also want to produce CO2 on the production side, but that is an internal contradiction where you can't have improvements in CO2 emissions without initially having CO2 being released in the mining and smelting process.

We really haven't got over, we have blanketly said we don't like anything was CO2, but you can't do one without the other.

That's going to have to be rectified to or a transition into a carbon free economy may not be nearly as quickly as we would like.

In Canada, we are investing in battery facilities. In the US, they have the inflation reduction act. The problem is we haven't taken significant concrete steps, in my opinion, to facilitate the startup of exploration and of mining investment.

And at this point, I don't believe that prices are high enough for many of them to incentivize minors, given the risks. They might reflect the costs, but they don't necessarily reflect the risk. Much of this activity will be maybe not the best risk.

In parts of Africa and other places around the world where the discount rates could be much higher, there isn't the appetite to invest so much and there is certainly resistance by many financial institutions to invest in this. So there are a lot of contradictions. But it that will come.

If we don't invest in the critical minerals, that probably means that prices are going to be higher because of the scarcity. And there's the one truism in commodities: their physical product.

You might project another 5 million tonnes or 10 million tons of copper over the next 10 years or so. But the reality is, you can project all you want.

If you don't have the physical copper, you cannot use it.

You can't print it, you can't electronically create it, you need the physical supply. And we are going to have to think long and hard in terms of policy, in terms of where you want to go investment wise for that problem to be solved because right now, there is clear evidence, we have all sorts of trends shown, I've written articles on this, showing that there is a bias against high carbon emission industries in terms of CAPEX. But you can't have one without the other, unfortunately.

>> We would like to, but we can't have it both ways. Fascinating stuff. A good breakdown on that space.

We are going to get back your questions for Bart Melek in just a moment's time.

As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.

and a reminder that you can get in touch with us at any time.

Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets?

Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions.

There are two ways you can get in touch with us.

You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screenhere on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live.

Well, if you are a market water, of course, you know all about the Fed minutes, the deliberation of any decision made by the US Federal Reserve. We actually get minutes now of the Bank of Canada meetings. That is been going on for a little bit. We are not used to them. We got some yesterday and perhaps they can give us some insight into what might be a head in December. Anthony Okolie has been looking through the limits and a new TD Securities report on what it could be telling us.

>> It appears that further rate hikes from the Bank of Canada are very much still on the table as the governing council was split on whether rates may need to rise further.

As was apparent in the minutes, some members felt that it was more likely than not that the policy rate would need to increase further to return inflation to target while others view the most likely scenario is one where a 5% policy rate would be sufficient to get inflation back to the 2% target provided it was maintained at the level for long enough.

TD Securities believes that it's a debate between higher for longer and higher still, and the bank's concerns are for the significant upgrade to CPI productions and the October monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada said that projected that inflation will stay at around 3 1/2% until mid-2024, returning to target in 2025. As we know, Canada's inflation rate fell to 3.8% in September.

But underlying price pressures have not eased by much in recent months. The Bank of Canada also notes that core inflation has been stuck in the 3 1/2 to 4 1/2% range over the past year. Now the Bank of Canada attributes high inflation to several factors, including rising shelter prices with rate hikes partly to blame given the increased mortgage cost for many Canadians. Other key themes that TD Securities noted is the current wage growth is inconsistent with 2% inflation within the minutes and there is also strong consensus by members that type policy is working to cool demand.

Now taking a step back, TD Securities makes two key observations.

One is that the outlook for growth and inflation has moderated.

They look at the on employment rate, for example, which picked up in October, with energy prices lower and GDP growth for August came in softer than expected.

Additionally, the GDP print presents a modest downside risk to the Bank of Canada's recently revised .8% annualized third-quarter GDP forecast. TD Security says that the Bank of Canada has every incentive to talk tough to maximize the impact of the tightening that's already in place, but it does make it difficult to separate posturing from the genuine signals of intent. However, TD Securities is comfortable with their view that the Bank of Canada has finished its hiking cycle.

>> Posturing from genuine signals of intent. I like that. What will TD Securities be watching over the next while to figure out if it's posturing or intent from the bank?

>> TD Securities will be paying attention to the three month annualized pace of core inflation to look for signs or trends that inflation pressures are moderating.

Despite the position that the BOC is done hiking rates, TD Securities believes it would be reckless to dismiss the bank's warning of potential hikes, given the persistence of inflation, the Bank of Canada's deliberation minutes reinforces the view that the markets are too complacent about the risk of a first quarter hike.

>> Interesting stuff. Thanks for that.

| >> my pleasure.

>> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie.

Now for an update on the market.

We are having a look at TD's Advanced Dashboard, a tool available through TD Direct Investing. This is the heat map function. The TSX 60, screened by price and volume. We have a lot of earnings to digest as investors over the past day or two and stock moving off of that news, Suncor among them, a little more than 5%.

It also helps that the price of crude is stabilizing.

Bought Manulife and the life codeup about 3 1/2% on his earnings. And Rogers as well up more than 5% on the heels of its latest report. Some solid green on the screen.

South of the border, Disney reported after the close yesterday that it added more subscribers to the Disney plus service, also announced millions more and cost control. That stock right now up to the tune of almost 8%. Tesla though seeing some negative commentary on the street in recent days. It is down almost 6%. You can get more information on TD Advanced Dashboard by visiting TD.com/Advanced Dashboard.

We are back with Bart Melek from TD Securities. We can squeeze in one more question.

How do you think about political risk in the commodity space? I know we had of you are writing about First Quantum and Panama and in general in the space, you have to think about the politics and the regimes.

>> Yeah. Look, I think there are many risks.

On the one hand, there are domicile risks where you have a lot of production of copper, cobalt, in very risky parts of the world.

So not necessarily politically stable.

There is always the risk that you might have political instability and disruptions.

You have risks in some Latin American countries, for example, were governments think that they are not getting their fair share of profits from mining operations.

We have the risk where the governments may have, may impose higher taxes or other duties on these operations. And, of course, that reduces profitability and that might reduce incentives to invest more in reducing actual supply, increasing prices in the long run.

Another risk is nationalist policy risk. A bit of a different kind where various countries may want to capture the value add from commodities. Maybe they don't want to export concentrate to be processed somewhere else. Maybe they want to take the concentrate, process it in their own country and then process the metal into goods domestically, creating employment and value to taxes. Of course, economists and strategists would argue that if these countries were the best places to do all this, that would have mostly happened already.

Whether that's true or not, we can't really always say.

The matter of fact it could very well be over a period that less efficient players are processing and keeping exports away from the rest of the world, increasing global prices and maybe they are not as good a processing or there is a learning curve. If you are just starting out, it may take you longer and be more expensive than according to areas that are already expert at it and that could reduce supply and increase long-term prices. Many, many risks out there. They are not necessarily all geopolitical risks in terms of war and conflict, but there is regulatory risk, policy risk, and of course the conflict risk as well.

>> Bart, is always fascinating to tap your mind on the commodity space.

Really enjoyed it, look forward to the next time.

>> It was my pleasure, thank you.

>> Our thanks to Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. stay tuned on tomorrow show, we are going to hear from Dom Rizzo, portfolio manager with T. Rowe Price and his outlook for the semiconductor space amid the rise of artificial intelligence.

Plus Jim Stillwagon from T. Rowe Price on what's next for the media space and why Netflix might not have been a winner coming out of the pandemic. That's all the time we have for the show today. Thanks for watching. We will see you tomorrow.

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