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The U.S. presidential election is just over a month away, and the race between democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump remains very close. Chris Krueger, Managing Director at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, speaks with Kim Parlee about some of the key trends emerging as the campaigning enters its final days.
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* The US election is about five weeks away, and the presidential race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remains very close. But there are some interesting trends emerging and still a lot of campaigning days ahead. Joining us for some perspective in studio is Chris Krueger, Managing Director at TD Cowen, Washington Research Group. It's nice to have you here in person.
* Great to be here.
* You need to do this more often.
* I will.
* OK, so moment by moment, day by day, but I think the latest that I've heard is, the polling seems to be tilting a bit more towards Harris, although I think it depends on what state you're talking about. But where are we right now?
* I think that's right. I think that's largely correct. Where we are is, we're effectively doing a 100-day snap election. This is totally unprecedented. It's never happened before. We're not going to have any more debates between Harris and Trump. So that's where we are.
* Looking at the battleground states, there are really two regions, right? Because in the US, we don't have a national election. We have a handful of state elections, the goal being 270 electoral votes. That's how you're elected president.
* So you've got two regions, the Sun Belt states, that's North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. And then you've got the so-called blue wall or the Rust Belt of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris is best-- Harris can go both ways. So can Trump. Trump is a little bit better on that Sun Belt track.
* But hopefully, we'll get some clarity on November 5 when the election is supposed to end. But voting is underway in a lot of states, right? Probably as much as 80% of the vote will be in by November 5. So stay tuned.
* That's remarkable. And I know I keep quoting you, by the way, on the stat that 80% is happening before November 5 because it's extraordinary and helps people understand the importance of polling right now. One question I have, and I'm curious because from people I've spoken to, some Americans, how effective is polling if someone who is being polled doesn't want to reveal, perhaps, that they are supporting Donald Trump? Because that's got to be something you have to manage.
* Sure. The last two cycles, people probably should have given Trump something like 200 basis points. The nuance with this election, I think, as well, though, is that typically, pollsters aren't picking up newly-registered voters. And since Biden dropped out, a number of younger voters have registered for the first time. So perhaps Harris's numbers are being under reported. We don't really know. We'll hopefully know on November 5.
* Some of the metrics we can look at, though, fundraising numbers, crowd size, on-the-ground efforts, the Get Out the Vote efforts. And since the debate, Harris is pretty much winning on all those fronts. Having said that, this is Trump's third presidential run. And he just has this well of support that is really unmatched in American politics.
* You mentioned the fact that President Trump has said no more debates. I know that some people have been asking Kamala Harris why she's not doing more media interviews. We do, though, have a scheduled debate coming-- I think it's October 1-- between the vice president candidates. Does it matter in this election?
* Probably not, but perhaps. We're going to be on the margins. I think when you look at 2020, more than 150 million votes were cast in that election. Joe Biden got more votes than any candidate ever. Donald Trump got the second most votes for any candidate ever. Right? Both of them eclipsed Barack Obama's numbers.
* When you boil that down, though, that race, over 150 million ballots cast, came down to fewer than 45,000 combined votes in three states. So this is a race that is within the margin of error. So the margins matter. Could a great debate performance or a poor debate performance move the needle a little bit? Perhaps.
* Would also note, on October 7, it sounds like-- or October 6. It's a little unclear. But both candidates might appear on 60 Minutes.
* And I think the one thing you keep saying-- and anyone who watches your research, which I highly recommend. It's great stuff. But you keep saying, it's 2024, expect the unexpected. You've had Biden bow out. You've had not one, but two assassination attempts, and of course, Kamala Harris coming. There's so many things that can happen.
* There are so many things that can happen. We're not going to have any criminal trials or sentencing. That's been pushed out. But that's a whole component of the race, too, that I think has just fallen by the wayside. Did it move the needle with with the four separate criminal trials or the indictments? No, but that's just another completely unprecedented issue and topic in the cycle.
* Let me ask you-- and I want to get into what we might expect. And we've talked about this before, but I think-- and there's, I'll say, an unusual outcome that I'm going to save for the end of the conversation because there's some complexity in it and I think they'll have to be schooled in US politics to understand it. But when you look at-- a number of people I've spoken to are expecting a split Congress.
* Yeah.
* But again, we'll see. And then you have to weigh on the president, who will come in. What, do you think, can Canada expect as an outcome of this election? And I know the problem is, the spectrum of possibilities are still quite wide at this point.
* Incredibly wide. We do have the USMCA review process underway. And candidly, a lot of the contention within that three-country process that's underway, it's not on the northern border. It's on the southern border.
* So when you have the trade reps discussing USMCA right now, the deadline being July 1, 2026, it's on issues like southern border enforcement, fentanyl, the perception of Chinese trans shipment into Mexico to get around tariffs. So the US-Canada relationship will continue to thrive under either. You have that USMCA review process to keep an eye on them.
* Do you think, though, if we do see a Harris presidency, will it be perhaps, more of the same? With where there's a Trump presidency, things will be different.
* I think that the big question with a potential Trump presidency in the second term is that blanket tariff. He's talked about a 10% blanket tariff. That's increased to 20% in the last few weeks. He doesn't talk about carve outs within that. I do think because of USMCA, you would have a carve out for Canada and Mexico. That's obviously a huge variable that you wouldn't have to worry about with a Harris presidency.
* Have you ever had to-- when you think about predicting what's going to happen-- I shouldn't say predicting, but just giving people information as they go-- it really has never been, I think, harder to really forecast, given what's going on.
* It's surreal. You mentioned a great point, though. And that is the undercard in this election, which is the race for the Congress. And that's always critically important. The reason it's very important next year is that in the US, we have $5 trillion worth of debt and fiscal cliffs on the horizon, which happen regardless of election outcome.
* Sometime next spring or summer, we have the debt ceiling to deal with. Then at the end of next year, in the US, all of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, individual rates, they all sunset. That's the largest tax increase in American history. That's the purview of Congress and the White House, of course. But that's just a huge delta on the horizon.
* I have two questions I would like to understand. I've heard some comments from some folks about how the narrow casting that's happening right now from the candidates, either during Kamala Harris, during the DNC speech, or others, but really trying to get at specific populations to convince them because that's how tight the election is.
* Yeah. Absolutely. This is called micro targeting. There's so few undecided voters. Then there's also, what's really going to drive the base. On the undecided voters, probably the best example of this is now that both candidates, Harris and Trump, want to not tax tips. Where did they both endorse that? In Nevada. Even more so than that, in Las Vegas.
* So it's really trying to fit the policy for the politics. And you're going to continue to see that because when you're in the margin of error, again, anything on the margins can be determinative.
* OK, let's talk about the margin of error and how close this can be because in your last note, you came out-- and again, you have to explain this to a Canadian audience, that to win, you needed 270--
* Electoral votes.
* --electoral votes. Thank you. But there's a scenario where neither side can get the 270. How does that even happen? And what happens?
* This is, without question, the worst-case scenario for anybody. So this made a lot of news recently because there was a push in the state of Nebraska. So within the US, it's winner take all. Right? if you win the state, you win all the electoral college votes, with two exceptions, Nebraska and Maine.
* So Maine, if you win the State of Maine, you get two electoral votes. But then the two congressional districts can split. That happened before. Trump won northern Maine and Joe Biden won the Portland-based district, and Nebraska, overwhelmingly Republican state, save for that Omaha-based district, where Biden won.
* Now, there was a push to change the rules. They said, we're not going to do that. So we still have this proportional allocation--
* By the Republicans, if I'm not--
* There was a push from Trump, Trump allies, and Republicans in the state. And it lost by one, by one Republican vote. That still doesn't resolve the issue in that you could have a scenario where neither candidate gets 270 and/or they actually tie.
* If they tie-- well, so December 17 is when all the counting stops. January 3 is when the new Congress is sworn in. January 6 is when the new Congress certifies the presidential election. If we're in the event of a tie, the new House of Representatives determines the presidential. Even more so than that, though, each state delegation gets one vote.
* So the 50-plus Congress members of California get one vote, state of Wyoming gets one vote, vice versa. Currently, Republicans have more state delegations. So in a tie, Trump would very likely win. Kim, it gets a little weirder, though, because the Senate determines the vice president. But net-net in a tie likely goes to Trump.
* And was there some scenario too, if they couldn't decide the president, then-- because you had all the scenarios planned out.
* There's that as well, because there a handful of delegations that are split delegations. There's not a majority. So what would happen there? And there's not a lot of case law on this. So there are varying statutes that would apply. In all likelihood, the new speaker of the House would become the acting president until this was resolved, likely at the Supreme Court.
* This situation is completely surreal. Hasn't happened since before the Civil War. But you look 24 years ago, the Supreme Court decided Bush v. Gore. So it's not completely unprecedented. But I think this is certainly what keeps me up at night.
* That's an understatement. Let me ask then-- there's just about a minute left-- what are you watching between now and November 5? And going to be-- and again, I know you said a lot of votes have already been cast. But as we go, what are you watching?
* Where are the candidates spending their time? And are they drawing new and unique people to those rallies? And what does their ground game look like? Are they knocking on doors? How many volunteers do they have in the state?
* Do they have Taylor Swift?
* Do they have Taylor Swift? Shout out to my daughter Clementine. Also, fundraising numbers. That's a pretty important metric to watch. And the Harris campaign out raised the Trump campaign by a factor of 4 last month.
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[UPBEAT MUSIC]
* The US election is about five weeks away, and the presidential race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remains very close. But there are some interesting trends emerging and still a lot of campaigning days ahead. Joining us for some perspective in studio is Chris Krueger, Managing Director at TD Cowen, Washington Research Group. It's nice to have you here in person.
* Great to be here.
* You need to do this more often.
* I will.
* OK, so moment by moment, day by day, but I think the latest that I've heard is, the polling seems to be tilting a bit more towards Harris, although I think it depends on what state you're talking about. But where are we right now?
* I think that's right. I think that's largely correct. Where we are is, we're effectively doing a 100-day snap election. This is totally unprecedented. It's never happened before. We're not going to have any more debates between Harris and Trump. So that's where we are.
* Looking at the battleground states, there are really two regions, right? Because in the US, we don't have a national election. We have a handful of state elections, the goal being 270 electoral votes. That's how you're elected president.
* So you've got two regions, the Sun Belt states, that's North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. And then you've got the so-called blue wall or the Rust Belt of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris is best-- Harris can go both ways. So can Trump. Trump is a little bit better on that Sun Belt track.
* But hopefully, we'll get some clarity on November 5 when the election is supposed to end. But voting is underway in a lot of states, right? Probably as much as 80% of the vote will be in by November 5. So stay tuned.
* That's remarkable. And I know I keep quoting you, by the way, on the stat that 80% is happening before November 5 because it's extraordinary and helps people understand the importance of polling right now. One question I have, and I'm curious because from people I've spoken to, some Americans, how effective is polling if someone who is being polled doesn't want to reveal, perhaps, that they are supporting Donald Trump? Because that's got to be something you have to manage.
* Sure. The last two cycles, people probably should have given Trump something like 200 basis points. The nuance with this election, I think, as well, though, is that typically, pollsters aren't picking up newly-registered voters. And since Biden dropped out, a number of younger voters have registered for the first time. So perhaps Harris's numbers are being under reported. We don't really know. We'll hopefully know on November 5.
* Some of the metrics we can look at, though, fundraising numbers, crowd size, on-the-ground efforts, the Get Out the Vote efforts. And since the debate, Harris is pretty much winning on all those fronts. Having said that, this is Trump's third presidential run. And he just has this well of support that is really unmatched in American politics.
* You mentioned the fact that President Trump has said no more debates. I know that some people have been asking Kamala Harris why she's not doing more media interviews. We do, though, have a scheduled debate coming-- I think it's October 1-- between the vice president candidates. Does it matter in this election?
* Probably not, but perhaps. We're going to be on the margins. I think when you look at 2020, more than 150 million votes were cast in that election. Joe Biden got more votes than any candidate ever. Donald Trump got the second most votes for any candidate ever. Right? Both of them eclipsed Barack Obama's numbers.
* When you boil that down, though, that race, over 150 million ballots cast, came down to fewer than 45,000 combined votes in three states. So this is a race that is within the margin of error. So the margins matter. Could a great debate performance or a poor debate performance move the needle a little bit? Perhaps.
* Would also note, on October 7, it sounds like-- or October 6. It's a little unclear. But both candidates might appear on 60 Minutes.
* And I think the one thing you keep saying-- and anyone who watches your research, which I highly recommend. It's great stuff. But you keep saying, it's 2024, expect the unexpected. You've had Biden bow out. You've had not one, but two assassination attempts, and of course, Kamala Harris coming. There's so many things that can happen.
* There are so many things that can happen. We're not going to have any criminal trials or sentencing. That's been pushed out. But that's a whole component of the race, too, that I think has just fallen by the wayside. Did it move the needle with with the four separate criminal trials or the indictments? No, but that's just another completely unprecedented issue and topic in the cycle.
* Let me ask you-- and I want to get into what we might expect. And we've talked about this before, but I think-- and there's, I'll say, an unusual outcome that I'm going to save for the end of the conversation because there's some complexity in it and I think they'll have to be schooled in US politics to understand it. But when you look at-- a number of people I've spoken to are expecting a split Congress.
* Yeah.
* But again, we'll see. And then you have to weigh on the president, who will come in. What, do you think, can Canada expect as an outcome of this election? And I know the problem is, the spectrum of possibilities are still quite wide at this point.
* Incredibly wide. We do have the USMCA review process underway. And candidly, a lot of the contention within that three-country process that's underway, it's not on the northern border. It's on the southern border.
* So when you have the trade reps discussing USMCA right now, the deadline being July 1, 2026, it's on issues like southern border enforcement, fentanyl, the perception of Chinese trans shipment into Mexico to get around tariffs. So the US-Canada relationship will continue to thrive under either. You have that USMCA review process to keep an eye on them.
* Do you think, though, if we do see a Harris presidency, will it be perhaps, more of the same? With where there's a Trump presidency, things will be different.
* I think that the big question with a potential Trump presidency in the second term is that blanket tariff. He's talked about a 10% blanket tariff. That's increased to 20% in the last few weeks. He doesn't talk about carve outs within that. I do think because of USMCA, you would have a carve out for Canada and Mexico. That's obviously a huge variable that you wouldn't have to worry about with a Harris presidency.
* Have you ever had to-- when you think about predicting what's going to happen-- I shouldn't say predicting, but just giving people information as they go-- it really has never been, I think, harder to really forecast, given what's going on.
* It's surreal. You mentioned a great point, though. And that is the undercard in this election, which is the race for the Congress. And that's always critically important. The reason it's very important next year is that in the US, we have $5 trillion worth of debt and fiscal cliffs on the horizon, which happen regardless of election outcome.
* Sometime next spring or summer, we have the debt ceiling to deal with. Then at the end of next year, in the US, all of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, individual rates, they all sunset. That's the largest tax increase in American history. That's the purview of Congress and the White House, of course. But that's just a huge delta on the horizon.
* I have two questions I would like to understand. I've heard some comments from some folks about how the narrow casting that's happening right now from the candidates, either during Kamala Harris, during the DNC speech, or others, but really trying to get at specific populations to convince them because that's how tight the election is.
* Yeah. Absolutely. This is called micro targeting. There's so few undecided voters. Then there's also, what's really going to drive the base. On the undecided voters, probably the best example of this is now that both candidates, Harris and Trump, want to not tax tips. Where did they both endorse that? In Nevada. Even more so than that, in Las Vegas.
* So it's really trying to fit the policy for the politics. And you're going to continue to see that because when you're in the margin of error, again, anything on the margins can be determinative.
* OK, let's talk about the margin of error and how close this can be because in your last note, you came out-- and again, you have to explain this to a Canadian audience, that to win, you needed 270--
* Electoral votes.
* --electoral votes. Thank you. But there's a scenario where neither side can get the 270. How does that even happen? And what happens?
* This is, without question, the worst-case scenario for anybody. So this made a lot of news recently because there was a push in the state of Nebraska. So within the US, it's winner take all. Right? if you win the state, you win all the electoral college votes, with two exceptions, Nebraska and Maine.
* So Maine, if you win the State of Maine, you get two electoral votes. But then the two congressional districts can split. That happened before. Trump won northern Maine and Joe Biden won the Portland-based district, and Nebraska, overwhelmingly Republican state, save for that Omaha-based district, where Biden won.
* Now, there was a push to change the rules. They said, we're not going to do that. So we still have this proportional allocation--
* By the Republicans, if I'm not--
* There was a push from Trump, Trump allies, and Republicans in the state. And it lost by one, by one Republican vote. That still doesn't resolve the issue in that you could have a scenario where neither candidate gets 270 and/or they actually tie.
* If they tie-- well, so December 17 is when all the counting stops. January 3 is when the new Congress is sworn in. January 6 is when the new Congress certifies the presidential election. If we're in the event of a tie, the new House of Representatives determines the presidential. Even more so than that, though, each state delegation gets one vote.
* So the 50-plus Congress members of California get one vote, state of Wyoming gets one vote, vice versa. Currently, Republicans have more state delegations. So in a tie, Trump would very likely win. Kim, it gets a little weirder, though, because the Senate determines the vice president. But net-net in a tie likely goes to Trump.
* And was there some scenario too, if they couldn't decide the president, then-- because you had all the scenarios planned out.
* There's that as well, because there a handful of delegations that are split delegations. There's not a majority. So what would happen there? And there's not a lot of case law on this. So there are varying statutes that would apply. In all likelihood, the new speaker of the House would become the acting president until this was resolved, likely at the Supreme Court.
* This situation is completely surreal. Hasn't happened since before the Civil War. But you look 24 years ago, the Supreme Court decided Bush v. Gore. So it's not completely unprecedented. But I think this is certainly what keeps me up at night.
* That's an understatement. Let me ask then-- there's just about a minute left-- what are you watching between now and November 5? And going to be-- and again, I know you said a lot of votes have already been cast. But as we go, what are you watching?
* Where are the candidates spending their time? And are they drawing new and unique people to those rallies? And what does their ground game look like? Are they knocking on doors? How many volunteers do they have in the state?
* Do they have Taylor Swift?
* Do they have Taylor Swift? Shout out to my daughter Clementine. Also, fundraising numbers. That's a pretty important metric to watch. And the Harris campaign out raised the Trump campaign by a factor of 4 last month.
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