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[theme music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing.
Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here.
We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing.
Coming up on today's show, we are going to discuss why the question for markets may not be whether we get a rate cut from the Fed in September but rather how large of a cut. Scott Colbourne from TD Asset Management will be our guest. MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie is going to give us a round up of the returning season. And in today's WebBroker education segment, Caitlin Cormier is going to shows how you can set up a bond ladder using the platform. So here's how you can get in touch with us.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Before we get to all that and our guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets.
We will start here at home with the TSX Composite Index. Some modest downside right now.
We are shedding about 82 points from the breakeven line, about 1/3 of a percent.
Some notable movers include Barrick Gold.
The price of gold pulling back a little today taking some of the… Let's jump straight to badger, why not tell that story as well.
Don't talk about that name a lot but it was one of the best performers on the TSX Composite Index today, announcing a share buyback. It Barrick Gold right now is down about 1.5%. As we look south of the border, got a little bit of weakness today, pause in the rally. Of course, Jackson Hole is underway but the real event is tomorrow morning when Jerome Powell, I think it's 10 AM Eastern time, is going to speak.
Again, he will probably speak to that question were dance around the edges of a September cut and what it might look like.
35 points to the downside, more than half a percent on the S&P 500. The tech heavy NASDAQ at this hour showing a little more weakness, down just shy of a full percent.
Here's a name that you may have forgotten.
We heard all about it during the pandemic.
Peloton, they are out with their latest report. Sales moved higher just a little bit, reversing a 9/4 trend of sales contracting. Right now it's up about 28%.
Nowhere near the pandemic ties but a pop on that news.
And that's your market update.
Markets are expecting the Fed to come off the sidelines in September and deliver a rate cut, but the question for many investors is how big of a cut might we get? Joining us at or discusses Scott Colbourne, managing director and head of active fixed income at TD Asset Management.
Always great to have you on the program.
>> Thanks. Great to be back.
>> I love the beauty of the central banks when we think about the things they have two way and their deliberations. They have the same information that we have.
We know what inflation looks like, the labour market, the economy, especially through those numbers. What are they telling you?
>> September 18 is the Fed's meeting and the markets are expecting, and they have been encouraged by the Fed to think that they will cut rates. The question that we have been debating is whether it's 25 or 50. When you look at what's priced into the market right now, we have basically a full percent cut by the end of the year and we have three meetings. So the market is saying one of those meetings has to be 50 at the moment.
So the question is, does the data support 50 basis points at one of these meetings?
Did they kick it off? There certainly a range of expectations in the market. On balance right now, what we are seeing is an economy that has been slowing. It's a little bit below trend growth. The forecast, they are now forecasting for US growth or and 2%. Inflation has been trending lower.
We had a good CPI print. Headline just below 3%, core just above 3%. The trend is in play. Central banks because been encouraging us to think that the trend is in play and inflation.
I would suggest that it's hard for me, absent to this volatility that we saw briefly in the markets this month that we need a 50 basis point cut. On balance, the fundamental say we are going and moving towards a cut, not an easing cycle, a cut.
It's more risk management.
The valuation may have been pushed a little too far here.
So right now, we've got maybe 1.25 cuts priced into September in the US market and probably that has to get brought back between now and September 18, so there may be a bit of congestion, choppiness in the treasury markets, especially the front end.
>> Especially this week when we think about all the information you been looking at, the labour market, part of the story of why it's taking so long for the Fed to get to the stage has been the resilience of the US economy, the exceptional strength of the US economy. Then we got the labour market position.
We are looking back at 12 months through March 2024, 818 I think over counted positions. The markets seem not to know to make of it. Should we be worried or is it so far behind us that it doesn't matter?
>> I think on balance, going way back, and the beginning of say made, we've had about a 90 basis point rally in US 10 years, right?
That sort of an icing on the cake. Here in August, we have seen revisions going back to spring of last year that reduced job growth and nonfarm payrolls over 200,000 to be around 175,000 so I would definitely say good growth in the jobs market but maybe not as strong as we had thought.
There has been a confluence of data basically nudging us towards this Goldilocks environment, softer growth proving inflation and Fed speak telling us we are moving towards that risk management cut and we will see as we go along. We get the number yesterday and in fact at the end of the day, rates were higher.
I think on balance the market was encouraged to be more dovish and expect more, and the volatility of this month, the selloff that we got in the equity market… >> On our holiday Monday.
>> Of course.
[laughing] That spike in volatility has left market positioning perhaps a bit long. I don't think it interrupts the big picture of the story and the story is that the Fed is embarking on a rate cutting process and we will see as the data continues to evolve, does that job number the trend, we had about 115 or so the last number, does it continue to deteriorate? We had jobless claims numbers this morning that way okay so between now and September 18, we get three jobless claims numbers, that's a high-frequency indicator on a weekly basis to tell us how the jobs market is doing, we get CPI and a nonfarm payroll.
So I think it all adds up. I think we need real messiness in that data, very weak data, to get us to 50. That's how we are thinking about it but we do think that we will continue on the trend towards a cutting cycle and so it's not weather, it will, is just how much and then ultimately, where do we move over the course of the cycle.
>> Of course, with the market at some point we have some participants pushing for the 50 that you don't see justification for, some pundits talking in that direction.
They are going to be looking to Jackson Hole tomorrow, to Jerome Powell and seeing what he will give. He is a central banker.
You wear your cards pretty close to your chest. What kind of words are you listening for to mark >> We have basically opened the door. It's this notion of risk management. That is inflation trend continues to be in place and is encouraging. We will look at the totality in the data.
We had a few Fed speakers today that sort of on balance saying we continue to look at the data and it's not horrible but it's definitely moving in the trend and at the last Fed meeting, the Fed did open the door for September so I think it's that continued risk management.
>> Off the top you said, don't think of the cut in September so much as easing as much as risk management. Is that based on concerns about the strength of the labour market and the economy overall?
>> What I see is the Fed worried that they are too tight, right? So if the trend accelerates here on the jobs growth, and I think the market and the Fed have sort of pivoted away from inflation concerns toward economic or the dual mandate of the labour market side.
So do we see an acceleration or a slowdown in the jobs market? If the Fed thinks right now that they are already in restrictive territory, they want to, they don't want to wait and be reactive too much so they are viewing this as a preemptive risk management cut. They see the trend, they see the trend in inflation and in job so let's start with the cut.
You can go cut or easing cycle and an easing cycle to me is one where we are concerned about a recession and I don't believe that the Fed nor the markets on balance believe that that's the primary focus right now.
>> You put this all together, what does it mean for the bond market? Fixed income investors have been waiting sometime for this.
>> We have rallied a lot since the spring.
But US investment grade bond yields are so close to 5%.
That's not bad, historically speaking. A little closer to me before the quarter here in Canada.
Not bad, given where we have been here.
You can decide whether you want more duration further out on the yield curve or you can get very attractive short-term corporate bonds and still lock in some good yield so I, while we have had this big rally in advance of the cutting cycle, we are still encouraged and I still think that money will continue to flow on balance into fixed income.
>> Fascinating stuff and a great start to the program. We are going to get your questions about the bond market for Scott Colbourne in just a moment's time.
A reminder, of course, that you can get in touch with us at any time.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Canada's freight rail network is now shut down in a labour dispute. Both Canadian National Railway and CPKC have locked out more than 9000 workers following an impasse in contract negotiations. That means shipments of GRAIN, potash, coal and other commodities are no longer moving on the country's rails.
Question around this depends on how long it carries on. Definitely got a careful eye on that one.
Shares of pandemic darling Peloton are in the spotlight today. We showed you earlier in the show. Quite a pop up, almost 30% now. What's going on? The connected exercise company returned to sales growth, albeit modest sales growth, for the first time since late 2021. The stat there was the first time in 9/4. Peloton posted growth in its subscription business from people who are buying used Peloton bikes and equipment and then signing up for those classes through the subscription thing. The stock is well off its pandemic highs. I believe it had been at $150 per share during the pandemic, stay at home, buy yourself some exercise come in. $4.35 right now on today's action.
Closer to home, Intact financial says severe weather events across Canada will drive catastrophic losses sharply higher.
In a release today, the insurance company estimates total catastrophic losses quarter to date of $1.1 billion. Intact says torrential rains in southern Ontario, the wildfires in Jasper, Alberta, hailstorms in Calgary and flooding in Québec are among the severe events that impacted their customers.
Depending on where you are in the country, including here in Toronto, you definitely room over those events. Quick check on the markets. We will start on Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index, down 86 points, a little more than 1/3 of a percent.
South of the border, the S&P 500, we had that pretty sharp bit of volatility about two weeks ago now. A little weakness today, down 25 points or half a percent as we await Jerome Powell tomorrow at Jackson Hole.
We are back now with Scott Colbourne taking your questions about the bond market. First one here for you. What you expecting from the Bank of Canada in September?
>> So the Bank of Canada, was priced into the market by the end of the year is three cuts and I don't think that there is any reason to move off of that so a cut in September in the Bank of Canada rate so that will be the third cut. They have already cut twice. They got ahead of the Fed so when you look globally, we are just waiting for the Fed and the reserve Bank of Australia to cut to the Bank of Canada will have another kind in September and continue to look to support the Canadian economy.
>> You mentioned the fact that we have already had two under our belt. We are waiting for the Fed to give the first one.
A big question we been getting from the audience a lot this summer has been on the divergence between the central banks. What we think of that situation now with the full excitation that the Fed is going to give us something in September to mark >> Yeah, so one way to look at it is what's priced into the market of the course of the cycle and so from here out, basically, there is not much difference between what the Fed has priced and so and what the Bank of Canada has over the course of the cycle so we expect about 2%, a full 2%, so that's what, eight cuts over the course of the interest rate cycle in Canada and then about 2 1/2% in the US so including the two that the Bank of Canada has already done, they both are going to cut over the course of the cycle about two and half percent is what the market expects and that takes us down to 2 1/2 to 3% and that is obviously different from where we have been over the course of the-- host great financial crisis, when essentially real rates were negative and lower bound interest rates were around zero so the market is basically saying, we will get to about two and half to three, 3 1/4% in both Canada and the US.
>> When I think about central bankers, they always like to say this, this, and this but this, this, and this.
Is there anything that they might say but this or is the data sort of moving in the direction that we need some rate relief?
>> I think the bank is been very clear that we are operating with excess capacity, that the trend we see the challenge in the housing market and I think that the bank has seen good improvement. The inflation numbers are good, so there is no reason for it to continue to be in restrictive territory and it will continue to decrease in a measured way going forward. There has to be some sense of urgency or heightened risk and at the moment we don't have that in Canada or in the US.
>> Next question here is somewhat related to everything we've been talking about, with rate cuts in Canada looking almost certain, why has the Canadian dollar been driven up in the last couple of days?
>> It's a US dollar story. The new look over the course of the year, we had a US dollar strengthening story across all currencies. The Canadian dollar weakened through most of this year until we got a sense of the Fed was going to cut. When we got that sense, the Canadian dollar has started to appreciate. It's still weak on the year, year-to-date basis, but it's that sense relative to the US dollar that, hey, they are going to begin their cutting cycle so that is a driver of the currency, the interest rate differential. But the big picture is a US dollar story and we are seeing the euro stronger, the yen finally got its knowledge given a tighter, more hawkish DOJ so on balance, you got most of the pairs versus the US dollar appreciating and the Canadian dollar comes along for the ride. It might underperform of the currencies but basically is going to be stronger as well.
>> When we think of the US dollar story is always interesting because as you said until we got the indication that the Fed is opening the doors in September and then you get the reversal in the US dollar trade but it's also considered a safe haven in turbulent times and we have no shortage of turbulence. Going out for the rest of the year, would you expect from the US buck?
>> There is obviously global challenges out there and how does the data of all? Do we get a surprise to the downside? Does it nudge the Fed into doing more?
You've got an election coming up, loss of uncertainty associated with that as well and there is no lack of geopolitical issues but broadly supporting this trend in lower inflation is a broad weakness in commodities so there's crosscurrents at play here. I think we started the process of the weaker US dollar but like all of these trends, is not a short-term movement or AV adjustment. It takes time for the market to adjust its positioning and we will continue to move towards a weaker US dollar.
>> Another audience question now, this one about Maple Bonds. If you want to get your view of Maple Bonds.
Maybe explained to some of us were like, okay, Maple Bond, I sort of get what's going on here.
>> A Maple Bond is a non-Canadian corporation issuing corporate bonds in Canada in Canadian dollars.
There's a lot of maple financials in the Canadian corporate market.
Wells Fargo, you got Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan.
Historically, they are not always as frequent issuers to the sort of, they don't grow their issuance for institutional investors. That's a bit of a headwind, as they have traded at a premium. So that's good.
They have to trade on the corporate fundamentals.
Broadly speaking, one of the factors that make them attractive right now is Canadian corporate bond market is more attractive than the US right now, you get more of a pickup here and the other positive factor for maples going forward as of January 1, 2025, new Maple Bonds will be included in the broad index so that is a good sponsorship for those issues. Broadly speaking, it's do your homework, do your credit work, but they are good names and they can offer you more attractive levels than issuance in the US.
>> What would be the biggest risk? The issuance is robustness?
>> Most issuers are very sizable but I would say that in any risk off environment, these are less liquid and they tend to widen out a little bit more so it's in more of a risk off environment that there is some noise associated with them.
>> Interesting stuff indeed.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
we are going to get back your questions for Scott Coburn on the bond market just moments time.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com.
Now, let's get our educational segment of the day.
One strategy a fixed income investor may consider is a bond ladder. Here to show us how to set one up on what brokers Kim Cormier, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing.
Caitlin, always great to see you. Let's talk about bond laddering. First off, what is it?
>> Yeah, absolutely. So bond laddering is basically a strategy for fixed income investing were an investor will purchase bonds with staggered maturity dates over months or more often eight years.
If the investor is shorter-term it could be months but typically years, and the idea behind bond laddering is to improve predictability of future income, so you know that you're gonna have income into the future, you know it is going to be.
You are helping to ensure you have liquidity for unforeseen obligations, you have money coming in.
It helps to reduce risk because redoing a budget of her maturity rate some of you we are doing longer-term investments, different types of investments as well as diversification. So we are getting a bunch of different types of bonds together as opposed to putting all of your money into one bond. You have the flex ability to choose different issuers and different types of bonds as well.
>> Now we understand the bond ladder, let's talk about on web broker creating a bond ladder.
>> Yes, absolutely! Let's hop right into web broker. We are going to get there by heading your research and then we are going to click fixed income.
This is going to show us some of the information about bonds available for purchase through TD Direct Investing. You can go ahead and select whatever category you would like. I'm gonna go ahead and choose agency bonds here between five and 10 years. These are maturity dates between the next five and 10 years so I'm gonna go ahead and choose whichever bond I would like. So for example, I'm going to randomly pick this one here coming due in 2033. Now I'm going to click select poor planning. This is giving me an issue today but I have started a portfolio here that says summer 2024. We are going to add that bond to the existing portfolio.
And you can see here that I already have a couple of different investments in this portfolio. Let's go back and add one more.
I'm gonna go back home here and choose one other, let's go with municipal bonds and I will go longer-term over 10 years and again, I'm going to just kind of pick a random volunteer.
And then again, for some reason, I'm gonna type in the summer and 24, add to portfolio, and here we go. So we had our portfolio listed right here and what I'm going to do is I'm actually gonna remove my duplicates here but I want to go in and put in how much I would like to invest in each one of these bonds, so I'm just going to put 10,000 for each one.
And once I've done that, I'm going to click the calculate button and then I'm going to hit create ladder report.
Now, it's going to pop up in another screen here which I should be able to share with you.
There we go.
Alright. So this is what the bond ladder is going to look like. So it's a proposed fixed income ladder. Showing us at the top, it's going to show us the different bonds that we have on the left-hand side.
The market value, the percentage that each one is in the portfolio, it's got our yield to maturity and our annual rate yield as well, all the different ratings are listed, terms of maturity, duration, so how much impact a change in interest rate would be on the value of this portfolio which is of course important given interest rates are changing all the time. That would impact us. And then our total annual income is the last thing we see here. If I scroll down, typically I would have… Anyway, gives you quite a bit of information altogether, the different types of bonds you have, different ratings, different terms of maturity, altogether the one document. So you can really kind of take a peek at your portfolio and see if this actually going to work for you as an investment.
>> Interesting stuff as always.
Thanks for that.
>> Thanks, Greg.
>> Caitlin Cormier, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing prayed for more educational resources, check out the learning centre on WebBroker or use this QR code to navigate to TD Direct Investing's Instagram page. There, you're going to find more informative videos.
We are back with Scott Colbourne, take your questions about the bond market. We got a few here in recent moments about the high-yield market. One of them said, what are your guests thoughts on high-yield?
The other one talked about your outlook on low-quality credit bonds, single B, triple C, especially if the US economy only weakens modestly.
Do you see a modest pickup and default rates versus previous cycles? Let's jump in here.
>> I like high-yield. As a fixed income manager, it's a shorter duration asset in general. As an asset class when you look back over time, it is, it offers you almost equity like returns, seven, 9% range, with a fraction of the equity like volatility. That's the big picture. Right now, the broad high-yield index gives you let's call at 7 1/2%. It's a little lower than it's been recently. Still in a bad number given where we are in terms of history. So we are looking at, as this year pointed out, a slowdown in the US economy and the Canadian economy.
Maybe not as deep as what we've seen in the past cycle. I alluded to maybe rate cuts, not an easing cycle, so fewer cuts over the course of the cycle. On balance, I lean towards that sort of approach. So that is supportive for credit. I think spreads will widen out.
We have seen investment grade and high-yield widen out. I think there still room to go as we see further deterioration in the broad economies, both Canada and the United States, so I expect spreads to widen out a bit and that would be an opportunity to pick it up. As far as you go down into single B and triple C, single B will definitely become more attractive.
Triple C is a whole different sort of beast, if you will. It's very idiosyncratic, highly dependent on the work you do on individual names. It's broad markets that trend, the triple C market is a bunch of individual names. You really have to know your stuff.
>> Good breakdown on some caveats there for investors to consider as they do their homework. Next question has been about a country that's been a hot topic recently, your take on Japan right now?
>> The only central bank tacking the other way. I think what happened with the volatility we saw in the markets associated with the bank of Japan's more hawkish move is we saw financial stability is signals. We know that central banks worry about inflation, sometimes the worry about the jobs market as well. Besides that, they all have large financial stimulus concerns. We saw that with the bank of England and the LDI crisis. We have seen over time the Fed and the Bank of Canada responding to market events.
Financial stability matters a lot. So what the DOJ basically said after the fact is we are going to continue to tighten, we are going to expect to normalize very slowly interest rates in Japan, but we are going to watch the financial markets and were not going to lecture because that type of adjustment again.
>> Adjustment was what, 12% in one day? It bounced back pretty quickly so that's a big draw down to that bond market.
>> Yeah.
>> Interesting stuff to watch on Japan there. We are going to get back your questions for Scott Colbourne on the bond market in just a moment's time.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
and a reminder you can get in touch with us at any time.
Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets?
Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions.
There are two ways you can get in touch with us.
You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send.
We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live.
The Canadian real state sector delivered to two results that were largely on with expectations following a strong first quarter. But with lower interest rates being priced in over the next 12 months, are there greater opportunities to be found in the REIT market?
>> TD Cowen is saying that operating trends continue to improve in the second quarter and they focus on the retail focused rates. They continue to benefit from strong demand from well located retail properties.
When you look at some of the key metrics, occupancy levels for example, they remain elevated for the retail focused REITs.
They saw occupancy-- versus an already strong 9.4% in the first quarter and that's well ahead of the five-year average of 5 1/2%, 5.6%. Now, TD Cowen believes that Canada strong population growth and limited retail supply as well as a decline in Canada's retail space per capita, that should all result in tighter retail leasing market in the near to medium term.
Now when we look at results versus expectation, again, overall results were not in line with expectations. However, the adjusted funds from operations per unit metrics came in slightly higher versus TD Cowen's estimates.
Most REITs either beat or were in line with… Will all help the retail focused sector contribute more to sector growth going forward.
Now of note, TD Cowen did make some modest revisions to the joint 24 2025 forecast.
They expect flat growth in 2024 and just a slight 1% decline in 2025.
Another thing that TD Cowen said is that the valuation discounts of the Canadian peers versus US peers and some interesting notes here.
The Canadian retail focused REITs are trading at around 13 times. When you look at the US peers, they are trading around 19 times. That represents a 33% discount of Canadian REITs versus the US peers.
That is well below the historical average discount of 50% so again with similar growth rates and high-yield in Canada, TD Cowen sees this current valuation as excessively discounted and they believe that they've overshot to an unsustainable extreme.
>> Interesting take on the space. What about the risks?
>> Some of the key risks that they highlight in the note is tenant concentration risk for some of these retail properties. Tenant credit risk, competitive supply, the potential inability to lease property is as well as key management cost pressures among other risks.
>> Interesting stuff. Thanks.
>> My pleasure.
>> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie.
And now for an update on the markets.
We are having a look at TD's Advanced Dashboard, a platform designed for active traders available through TD Direct Investing.
Let's jump into the heat map function, a nice view of the market movers. We will start the TSX 60. You can see right now you got some of the energy names up modestly, some of the mining stocks down and we have had TD kickoff bank earnings season. Right now we see the stock is taking up a lot of real estate on the page. TD is taking a US$2.6 billion revision-- total fines related to those matters. TD also says it expects a global resolution to be finalized by calendar year end.
As we look across the border, Jackson Hole has kicked off. The big event will be Jerome Powell speaking tomorrow morning.
Ahead of that, nothing too dramatic across the S&P 500 or NASDAQ. Nvidia's pulling back modestly, Intel down about more than 3%. Some read on the screen, including the financial. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, up modestly.
Another question for Scott Colbourne. You can't get out of the show without talking about the yield curve. What is the yield curve telling us about the potential for US recession or hard landing?
>> The US yield curve, the Canadian yield curve, have been inverted for a long time.
You go back in the US in 2022, the yield curve, let's use two years versus 10 years, briefly during the frenzied selloff in the equity market, we had the yield curve go positive but we are back below that but on balance it's telling you that the front end of the yield curve is moving lower and the Fed is going to ease of rates so we are moving in that trajectory.
A number of observers pointed to the yield curve as an indicator of potential decline in the US economy. Obviously, there is a lot of crosswinds that has we look back, associated with the pandemic, whether it's fiscal policy, and the dynamic nature of the US mortgage market, they all had an impact and we did not get that recession indicator being validated but I think it does speak to the fact that we are embarking upon the beginning of the easing cycle and so the yield curve will diss invert to and will continue to just invert over time as the front-end move lower relative to the longer-term rates and I'm still in the camp and I think we've talked about it through the course of this discussion that right now, a hard landing is not my central case and softness will continue.
But we've got to be mindful of the risk.
At the moment, we are not in that camp.
>> We are out of time for questions.
Before I let you go, we've got Jackson Hole tomorrow with Jerome Powell, the Bank of Canada, the Fed on deck for September, we are going to get serious real soon.
What are you thinking we are going to get from the central banks?
>> 25 to 25 Bank of Canada, the Fed is my central case.
We are going to continue to see a slowdown but a good slowdown in both economies and a central bank that will be accommodative of that slowdown. I still like bonds.
Still attractive.
Very, very short term, may be overdone to the downside but you've got to hold bonds in this easing cycle.
>> Always great to have you here. Love the inside. Look forward to the next one.
>> My pleasure. Thanks.
>> Scott Colbourne, managing Dir. and head of active fixed income at TD Asset Management.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
if we did not get your questions today, we will aim to get into future shows. Stay tuned. Tomorrow we will be back with the reaction to what we get out of Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and then on Monday show, John Kiernan, managing director at TD Cowen, will be our Guest taking your questions about retail and consumer stocks.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us at any time. Just email MoneyTalkLive@TD.com.
That's all the time we have for the show today. Apologies for those who tuned in at 12 Eastern time, we had a delay, a technical thing, but we got a show under our belt and that's all that matters.
Thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow.
[theme music]
Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here.
We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing.
Coming up on today's show, we are going to discuss why the question for markets may not be whether we get a rate cut from the Fed in September but rather how large of a cut. Scott Colbourne from TD Asset Management will be our guest. MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie is going to give us a round up of the returning season. And in today's WebBroker education segment, Caitlin Cormier is going to shows how you can set up a bond ladder using the platform. So here's how you can get in touch with us.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Before we get to all that and our guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets.
We will start here at home with the TSX Composite Index. Some modest downside right now.
We are shedding about 82 points from the breakeven line, about 1/3 of a percent.
Some notable movers include Barrick Gold.
The price of gold pulling back a little today taking some of the… Let's jump straight to badger, why not tell that story as well.
Don't talk about that name a lot but it was one of the best performers on the TSX Composite Index today, announcing a share buyback. It Barrick Gold right now is down about 1.5%. As we look south of the border, got a little bit of weakness today, pause in the rally. Of course, Jackson Hole is underway but the real event is tomorrow morning when Jerome Powell, I think it's 10 AM Eastern time, is going to speak.
Again, he will probably speak to that question were dance around the edges of a September cut and what it might look like.
35 points to the downside, more than half a percent on the S&P 500. The tech heavy NASDAQ at this hour showing a little more weakness, down just shy of a full percent.
Here's a name that you may have forgotten.
We heard all about it during the pandemic.
Peloton, they are out with their latest report. Sales moved higher just a little bit, reversing a 9/4 trend of sales contracting. Right now it's up about 28%.
Nowhere near the pandemic ties but a pop on that news.
And that's your market update.
Markets are expecting the Fed to come off the sidelines in September and deliver a rate cut, but the question for many investors is how big of a cut might we get? Joining us at or discusses Scott Colbourne, managing director and head of active fixed income at TD Asset Management.
Always great to have you on the program.
>> Thanks. Great to be back.
>> I love the beauty of the central banks when we think about the things they have two way and their deliberations. They have the same information that we have.
We know what inflation looks like, the labour market, the economy, especially through those numbers. What are they telling you?
>> September 18 is the Fed's meeting and the markets are expecting, and they have been encouraged by the Fed to think that they will cut rates. The question that we have been debating is whether it's 25 or 50. When you look at what's priced into the market right now, we have basically a full percent cut by the end of the year and we have three meetings. So the market is saying one of those meetings has to be 50 at the moment.
So the question is, does the data support 50 basis points at one of these meetings?
Did they kick it off? There certainly a range of expectations in the market. On balance right now, what we are seeing is an economy that has been slowing. It's a little bit below trend growth. The forecast, they are now forecasting for US growth or and 2%. Inflation has been trending lower.
We had a good CPI print. Headline just below 3%, core just above 3%. The trend is in play. Central banks because been encouraging us to think that the trend is in play and inflation.
I would suggest that it's hard for me, absent to this volatility that we saw briefly in the markets this month that we need a 50 basis point cut. On balance, the fundamental say we are going and moving towards a cut, not an easing cycle, a cut.
It's more risk management.
The valuation may have been pushed a little too far here.
So right now, we've got maybe 1.25 cuts priced into September in the US market and probably that has to get brought back between now and September 18, so there may be a bit of congestion, choppiness in the treasury markets, especially the front end.
>> Especially this week when we think about all the information you been looking at, the labour market, part of the story of why it's taking so long for the Fed to get to the stage has been the resilience of the US economy, the exceptional strength of the US economy. Then we got the labour market position.
We are looking back at 12 months through March 2024, 818 I think over counted positions. The markets seem not to know to make of it. Should we be worried or is it so far behind us that it doesn't matter?
>> I think on balance, going way back, and the beginning of say made, we've had about a 90 basis point rally in US 10 years, right?
That sort of an icing on the cake. Here in August, we have seen revisions going back to spring of last year that reduced job growth and nonfarm payrolls over 200,000 to be around 175,000 so I would definitely say good growth in the jobs market but maybe not as strong as we had thought.
There has been a confluence of data basically nudging us towards this Goldilocks environment, softer growth proving inflation and Fed speak telling us we are moving towards that risk management cut and we will see as we go along. We get the number yesterday and in fact at the end of the day, rates were higher.
I think on balance the market was encouraged to be more dovish and expect more, and the volatility of this month, the selloff that we got in the equity market… >> On our holiday Monday.
>> Of course.
[laughing] That spike in volatility has left market positioning perhaps a bit long. I don't think it interrupts the big picture of the story and the story is that the Fed is embarking on a rate cutting process and we will see as the data continues to evolve, does that job number the trend, we had about 115 or so the last number, does it continue to deteriorate? We had jobless claims numbers this morning that way okay so between now and September 18, we get three jobless claims numbers, that's a high-frequency indicator on a weekly basis to tell us how the jobs market is doing, we get CPI and a nonfarm payroll.
So I think it all adds up. I think we need real messiness in that data, very weak data, to get us to 50. That's how we are thinking about it but we do think that we will continue on the trend towards a cutting cycle and so it's not weather, it will, is just how much and then ultimately, where do we move over the course of the cycle.
>> Of course, with the market at some point we have some participants pushing for the 50 that you don't see justification for, some pundits talking in that direction.
They are going to be looking to Jackson Hole tomorrow, to Jerome Powell and seeing what he will give. He is a central banker.
You wear your cards pretty close to your chest. What kind of words are you listening for to mark >> We have basically opened the door. It's this notion of risk management. That is inflation trend continues to be in place and is encouraging. We will look at the totality in the data.
We had a few Fed speakers today that sort of on balance saying we continue to look at the data and it's not horrible but it's definitely moving in the trend and at the last Fed meeting, the Fed did open the door for September so I think it's that continued risk management.
>> Off the top you said, don't think of the cut in September so much as easing as much as risk management. Is that based on concerns about the strength of the labour market and the economy overall?
>> What I see is the Fed worried that they are too tight, right? So if the trend accelerates here on the jobs growth, and I think the market and the Fed have sort of pivoted away from inflation concerns toward economic or the dual mandate of the labour market side.
So do we see an acceleration or a slowdown in the jobs market? If the Fed thinks right now that they are already in restrictive territory, they want to, they don't want to wait and be reactive too much so they are viewing this as a preemptive risk management cut. They see the trend, they see the trend in inflation and in job so let's start with the cut.
You can go cut or easing cycle and an easing cycle to me is one where we are concerned about a recession and I don't believe that the Fed nor the markets on balance believe that that's the primary focus right now.
>> You put this all together, what does it mean for the bond market? Fixed income investors have been waiting sometime for this.
>> We have rallied a lot since the spring.
But US investment grade bond yields are so close to 5%.
That's not bad, historically speaking. A little closer to me before the quarter here in Canada.
Not bad, given where we have been here.
You can decide whether you want more duration further out on the yield curve or you can get very attractive short-term corporate bonds and still lock in some good yield so I, while we have had this big rally in advance of the cutting cycle, we are still encouraged and I still think that money will continue to flow on balance into fixed income.
>> Fascinating stuff and a great start to the program. We are going to get your questions about the bond market for Scott Colbourne in just a moment's time.
A reminder, of course, that you can get in touch with us at any time.
Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.
Canada's freight rail network is now shut down in a labour dispute. Both Canadian National Railway and CPKC have locked out more than 9000 workers following an impasse in contract negotiations. That means shipments of GRAIN, potash, coal and other commodities are no longer moving on the country's rails.
Question around this depends on how long it carries on. Definitely got a careful eye on that one.
Shares of pandemic darling Peloton are in the spotlight today. We showed you earlier in the show. Quite a pop up, almost 30% now. What's going on? The connected exercise company returned to sales growth, albeit modest sales growth, for the first time since late 2021. The stat there was the first time in 9/4. Peloton posted growth in its subscription business from people who are buying used Peloton bikes and equipment and then signing up for those classes through the subscription thing. The stock is well off its pandemic highs. I believe it had been at $150 per share during the pandemic, stay at home, buy yourself some exercise come in. $4.35 right now on today's action.
Closer to home, Intact financial says severe weather events across Canada will drive catastrophic losses sharply higher.
In a release today, the insurance company estimates total catastrophic losses quarter to date of $1.1 billion. Intact says torrential rains in southern Ontario, the wildfires in Jasper, Alberta, hailstorms in Calgary and flooding in Québec are among the severe events that impacted their customers.
Depending on where you are in the country, including here in Toronto, you definitely room over those events. Quick check on the markets. We will start on Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index, down 86 points, a little more than 1/3 of a percent.
South of the border, the S&P 500, we had that pretty sharp bit of volatility about two weeks ago now. A little weakness today, down 25 points or half a percent as we await Jerome Powell tomorrow at Jackson Hole.
We are back now with Scott Colbourne taking your questions about the bond market. First one here for you. What you expecting from the Bank of Canada in September?
>> So the Bank of Canada, was priced into the market by the end of the year is three cuts and I don't think that there is any reason to move off of that so a cut in September in the Bank of Canada rate so that will be the third cut. They have already cut twice. They got ahead of the Fed so when you look globally, we are just waiting for the Fed and the reserve Bank of Australia to cut to the Bank of Canada will have another kind in September and continue to look to support the Canadian economy.
>> You mentioned the fact that we have already had two under our belt. We are waiting for the Fed to give the first one.
A big question we been getting from the audience a lot this summer has been on the divergence between the central banks. What we think of that situation now with the full excitation that the Fed is going to give us something in September to mark >> Yeah, so one way to look at it is what's priced into the market of the course of the cycle and so from here out, basically, there is not much difference between what the Fed has priced and so and what the Bank of Canada has over the course of the cycle so we expect about 2%, a full 2%, so that's what, eight cuts over the course of the interest rate cycle in Canada and then about 2 1/2% in the US so including the two that the Bank of Canada has already done, they both are going to cut over the course of the cycle about two and half percent is what the market expects and that takes us down to 2 1/2 to 3% and that is obviously different from where we have been over the course of the-- host great financial crisis, when essentially real rates were negative and lower bound interest rates were around zero so the market is basically saying, we will get to about two and half to three, 3 1/4% in both Canada and the US.
>> When I think about central bankers, they always like to say this, this, and this but this, this, and this.
Is there anything that they might say but this or is the data sort of moving in the direction that we need some rate relief?
>> I think the bank is been very clear that we are operating with excess capacity, that the trend we see the challenge in the housing market and I think that the bank has seen good improvement. The inflation numbers are good, so there is no reason for it to continue to be in restrictive territory and it will continue to decrease in a measured way going forward. There has to be some sense of urgency or heightened risk and at the moment we don't have that in Canada or in the US.
>> Next question here is somewhat related to everything we've been talking about, with rate cuts in Canada looking almost certain, why has the Canadian dollar been driven up in the last couple of days?
>> It's a US dollar story. The new look over the course of the year, we had a US dollar strengthening story across all currencies. The Canadian dollar weakened through most of this year until we got a sense of the Fed was going to cut. When we got that sense, the Canadian dollar has started to appreciate. It's still weak on the year, year-to-date basis, but it's that sense relative to the US dollar that, hey, they are going to begin their cutting cycle so that is a driver of the currency, the interest rate differential. But the big picture is a US dollar story and we are seeing the euro stronger, the yen finally got its knowledge given a tighter, more hawkish DOJ so on balance, you got most of the pairs versus the US dollar appreciating and the Canadian dollar comes along for the ride. It might underperform of the currencies but basically is going to be stronger as well.
>> When we think of the US dollar story is always interesting because as you said until we got the indication that the Fed is opening the doors in September and then you get the reversal in the US dollar trade but it's also considered a safe haven in turbulent times and we have no shortage of turbulence. Going out for the rest of the year, would you expect from the US buck?
>> There is obviously global challenges out there and how does the data of all? Do we get a surprise to the downside? Does it nudge the Fed into doing more?
You've got an election coming up, loss of uncertainty associated with that as well and there is no lack of geopolitical issues but broadly supporting this trend in lower inflation is a broad weakness in commodities so there's crosscurrents at play here. I think we started the process of the weaker US dollar but like all of these trends, is not a short-term movement or AV adjustment. It takes time for the market to adjust its positioning and we will continue to move towards a weaker US dollar.
>> Another audience question now, this one about Maple Bonds. If you want to get your view of Maple Bonds.
Maybe explained to some of us were like, okay, Maple Bond, I sort of get what's going on here.
>> A Maple Bond is a non-Canadian corporation issuing corporate bonds in Canada in Canadian dollars.
There's a lot of maple financials in the Canadian corporate market.
Wells Fargo, you got Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan.
Historically, they are not always as frequent issuers to the sort of, they don't grow their issuance for institutional investors. That's a bit of a headwind, as they have traded at a premium. So that's good.
They have to trade on the corporate fundamentals.
Broadly speaking, one of the factors that make them attractive right now is Canadian corporate bond market is more attractive than the US right now, you get more of a pickup here and the other positive factor for maples going forward as of January 1, 2025, new Maple Bonds will be included in the broad index so that is a good sponsorship for those issues. Broadly speaking, it's do your homework, do your credit work, but they are good names and they can offer you more attractive levels than issuance in the US.
>> What would be the biggest risk? The issuance is robustness?
>> Most issuers are very sizable but I would say that in any risk off environment, these are less liquid and they tend to widen out a little bit more so it's in more of a risk off environment that there is some noise associated with them.
>> Interesting stuff indeed.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
we are going to get back your questions for Scott Coburn on the bond market just moments time.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com.
Now, let's get our educational segment of the day.
One strategy a fixed income investor may consider is a bond ladder. Here to show us how to set one up on what brokers Kim Cormier, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing.
Caitlin, always great to see you. Let's talk about bond laddering. First off, what is it?
>> Yeah, absolutely. So bond laddering is basically a strategy for fixed income investing were an investor will purchase bonds with staggered maturity dates over months or more often eight years.
If the investor is shorter-term it could be months but typically years, and the idea behind bond laddering is to improve predictability of future income, so you know that you're gonna have income into the future, you know it is going to be.
You are helping to ensure you have liquidity for unforeseen obligations, you have money coming in.
It helps to reduce risk because redoing a budget of her maturity rate some of you we are doing longer-term investments, different types of investments as well as diversification. So we are getting a bunch of different types of bonds together as opposed to putting all of your money into one bond. You have the flex ability to choose different issuers and different types of bonds as well.
>> Now we understand the bond ladder, let's talk about on web broker creating a bond ladder.
>> Yes, absolutely! Let's hop right into web broker. We are going to get there by heading your research and then we are going to click fixed income.
This is going to show us some of the information about bonds available for purchase through TD Direct Investing. You can go ahead and select whatever category you would like. I'm gonna go ahead and choose agency bonds here between five and 10 years. These are maturity dates between the next five and 10 years so I'm gonna go ahead and choose whichever bond I would like. So for example, I'm going to randomly pick this one here coming due in 2033. Now I'm going to click select poor planning. This is giving me an issue today but I have started a portfolio here that says summer 2024. We are going to add that bond to the existing portfolio.
And you can see here that I already have a couple of different investments in this portfolio. Let's go back and add one more.
I'm gonna go back home here and choose one other, let's go with municipal bonds and I will go longer-term over 10 years and again, I'm going to just kind of pick a random volunteer.
And then again, for some reason, I'm gonna type in the summer and 24, add to portfolio, and here we go. So we had our portfolio listed right here and what I'm going to do is I'm actually gonna remove my duplicates here but I want to go in and put in how much I would like to invest in each one of these bonds, so I'm just going to put 10,000 for each one.
And once I've done that, I'm going to click the calculate button and then I'm going to hit create ladder report.
Now, it's going to pop up in another screen here which I should be able to share with you.
There we go.
Alright. So this is what the bond ladder is going to look like. So it's a proposed fixed income ladder. Showing us at the top, it's going to show us the different bonds that we have on the left-hand side.
The market value, the percentage that each one is in the portfolio, it's got our yield to maturity and our annual rate yield as well, all the different ratings are listed, terms of maturity, duration, so how much impact a change in interest rate would be on the value of this portfolio which is of course important given interest rates are changing all the time. That would impact us. And then our total annual income is the last thing we see here. If I scroll down, typically I would have… Anyway, gives you quite a bit of information altogether, the different types of bonds you have, different ratings, different terms of maturity, altogether the one document. So you can really kind of take a peek at your portfolio and see if this actually going to work for you as an investment.
>> Interesting stuff as always.
Thanks for that.
>> Thanks, Greg.
>> Caitlin Cormier, senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing prayed for more educational resources, check out the learning centre on WebBroker or use this QR code to navigate to TD Direct Investing's Instagram page. There, you're going to find more informative videos.
We are back with Scott Colbourne, take your questions about the bond market. We got a few here in recent moments about the high-yield market. One of them said, what are your guests thoughts on high-yield?
The other one talked about your outlook on low-quality credit bonds, single B, triple C, especially if the US economy only weakens modestly.
Do you see a modest pickup and default rates versus previous cycles? Let's jump in here.
>> I like high-yield. As a fixed income manager, it's a shorter duration asset in general. As an asset class when you look back over time, it is, it offers you almost equity like returns, seven, 9% range, with a fraction of the equity like volatility. That's the big picture. Right now, the broad high-yield index gives you let's call at 7 1/2%. It's a little lower than it's been recently. Still in a bad number given where we are in terms of history. So we are looking at, as this year pointed out, a slowdown in the US economy and the Canadian economy.
Maybe not as deep as what we've seen in the past cycle. I alluded to maybe rate cuts, not an easing cycle, so fewer cuts over the course of the cycle. On balance, I lean towards that sort of approach. So that is supportive for credit. I think spreads will widen out.
We have seen investment grade and high-yield widen out. I think there still room to go as we see further deterioration in the broad economies, both Canada and the United States, so I expect spreads to widen out a bit and that would be an opportunity to pick it up. As far as you go down into single B and triple C, single B will definitely become more attractive.
Triple C is a whole different sort of beast, if you will. It's very idiosyncratic, highly dependent on the work you do on individual names. It's broad markets that trend, the triple C market is a bunch of individual names. You really have to know your stuff.
>> Good breakdown on some caveats there for investors to consider as they do their homework. Next question has been about a country that's been a hot topic recently, your take on Japan right now?
>> The only central bank tacking the other way. I think what happened with the volatility we saw in the markets associated with the bank of Japan's more hawkish move is we saw financial stability is signals. We know that central banks worry about inflation, sometimes the worry about the jobs market as well. Besides that, they all have large financial stimulus concerns. We saw that with the bank of England and the LDI crisis. We have seen over time the Fed and the Bank of Canada responding to market events.
Financial stability matters a lot. So what the DOJ basically said after the fact is we are going to continue to tighten, we are going to expect to normalize very slowly interest rates in Japan, but we are going to watch the financial markets and were not going to lecture because that type of adjustment again.
>> Adjustment was what, 12% in one day? It bounced back pretty quickly so that's a big draw down to that bond market.
>> Yeah.
>> Interesting stuff to watch on Japan there. We are going to get back your questions for Scott Colbourne on the bond market in just a moment's time.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
and a reminder you can get in touch with us at any time.
Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets?
Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions.
There are two ways you can get in touch with us.
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We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live.
The Canadian real state sector delivered to two results that were largely on with expectations following a strong first quarter. But with lower interest rates being priced in over the next 12 months, are there greater opportunities to be found in the REIT market?
>> TD Cowen is saying that operating trends continue to improve in the second quarter and they focus on the retail focused rates. They continue to benefit from strong demand from well located retail properties.
When you look at some of the key metrics, occupancy levels for example, they remain elevated for the retail focused REITs.
They saw occupancy-- versus an already strong 9.4% in the first quarter and that's well ahead of the five-year average of 5 1/2%, 5.6%. Now, TD Cowen believes that Canada strong population growth and limited retail supply as well as a decline in Canada's retail space per capita, that should all result in tighter retail leasing market in the near to medium term.
Now when we look at results versus expectation, again, overall results were not in line with expectations. However, the adjusted funds from operations per unit metrics came in slightly higher versus TD Cowen's estimates.
Most REITs either beat or were in line with… Will all help the retail focused sector contribute more to sector growth going forward.
Now of note, TD Cowen did make some modest revisions to the joint 24 2025 forecast.
They expect flat growth in 2024 and just a slight 1% decline in 2025.
Another thing that TD Cowen said is that the valuation discounts of the Canadian peers versus US peers and some interesting notes here.
The Canadian retail focused REITs are trading at around 13 times. When you look at the US peers, they are trading around 19 times. That represents a 33% discount of Canadian REITs versus the US peers.
That is well below the historical average discount of 50% so again with similar growth rates and high-yield in Canada, TD Cowen sees this current valuation as excessively discounted and they believe that they've overshot to an unsustainable extreme.
>> Interesting take on the space. What about the risks?
>> Some of the key risks that they highlight in the note is tenant concentration risk for some of these retail properties. Tenant credit risk, competitive supply, the potential inability to lease property is as well as key management cost pressures among other risks.
>> Interesting stuff. Thanks.
>> My pleasure.
>> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie.
And now for an update on the markets.
We are having a look at TD's Advanced Dashboard, a platform designed for active traders available through TD Direct Investing.
Let's jump into the heat map function, a nice view of the market movers. We will start the TSX 60. You can see right now you got some of the energy names up modestly, some of the mining stocks down and we have had TD kickoff bank earnings season. Right now we see the stock is taking up a lot of real estate on the page. TD is taking a US$2.6 billion revision-- total fines related to those matters. TD also says it expects a global resolution to be finalized by calendar year end.
As we look across the border, Jackson Hole has kicked off. The big event will be Jerome Powell speaking tomorrow morning.
Ahead of that, nothing too dramatic across the S&P 500 or NASDAQ. Nvidia's pulling back modestly, Intel down about more than 3%. Some read on the screen, including the financial. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, up modestly.
Another question for Scott Colbourne. You can't get out of the show without talking about the yield curve. What is the yield curve telling us about the potential for US recession or hard landing?
>> The US yield curve, the Canadian yield curve, have been inverted for a long time.
You go back in the US in 2022, the yield curve, let's use two years versus 10 years, briefly during the frenzied selloff in the equity market, we had the yield curve go positive but we are back below that but on balance it's telling you that the front end of the yield curve is moving lower and the Fed is going to ease of rates so we are moving in that trajectory.
A number of observers pointed to the yield curve as an indicator of potential decline in the US economy. Obviously, there is a lot of crosswinds that has we look back, associated with the pandemic, whether it's fiscal policy, and the dynamic nature of the US mortgage market, they all had an impact and we did not get that recession indicator being validated but I think it does speak to the fact that we are embarking upon the beginning of the easing cycle and so the yield curve will diss invert to and will continue to just invert over time as the front-end move lower relative to the longer-term rates and I'm still in the camp and I think we've talked about it through the course of this discussion that right now, a hard landing is not my central case and softness will continue.
But we've got to be mindful of the risk.
At the moment, we are not in that camp.
>> We are out of time for questions.
Before I let you go, we've got Jackson Hole tomorrow with Jerome Powell, the Bank of Canada, the Fed on deck for September, we are going to get serious real soon.
What are you thinking we are going to get from the central banks?
>> 25 to 25 Bank of Canada, the Fed is my central case.
We are going to continue to see a slowdown but a good slowdown in both economies and a central bank that will be accommodative of that slowdown. I still like bonds.
Still attractive.
Very, very short term, may be overdone to the downside but you've got to hold bonds in this easing cycle.
>> Always great to have you here. Love the inside. Look forward to the next one.
>> My pleasure. Thanks.
>> Scott Colbourne, managing Dir. and head of active fixed income at TD Asset Management.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
if we did not get your questions today, we will aim to get into future shows. Stay tuned. Tomorrow we will be back with the reaction to what we get out of Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and then on Monday show, John Kiernan, managing director at TD Cowen, will be our Guest taking your questions about retail and consumer stocks.
And a reminder that you can get in touch with us at any time. Just email MoneyTalkLive@TD.com.
That's all the time we have for the show today. Apologies for those who tuned in at 12 Eastern time, we had a delay, a technical thing, but we got a show under our belt and that's all that matters.
Thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow.
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