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[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing. coming up on today show, Moneytalk's Anthony Okolie is going to take us to the latest Canadian GDP report. TD Security is a Bart Melek will discuss what's driving the recent move higher in gold and whether that trend can continue. And then we'll have a look at potential bright spots and weak points of the real estate market with Colin Lynch from TD Asset Management. At plus in today's WebBroker education segment, Caitlin Cormier will show us how you can find dividend information on the platform. Let's get you an update on the markets. the TSX Composite Index is up for more than half percent. Seeing the price of American benchmark crude up 2% at this hour, and that is putting some money toward some of the big energy names. Let's check in on Cenovus. I really could've chosen any of the energy majors. At 20 to 67 per share, your of 3 1/2%. Noticing some get back inGold names today. You've got B2Gold at 535 per share, down almost 2%. Now, south of the border, this has been a big week for earnings, especially among the mega-cap Tech names. Some stronger than expected reports. Right now you're up 23 points, about half a percent. Let's check out the NASDAQ, it's up about 1/10 of a percent. As energy names are getting a bid the side of the border, so it is south of the border. Exxon is up 2% at 119 bucks per share. And that's your market update. Canadian economic growth slowed again in February, rising 0.1% month over month. Joining us now to discuss what we saw in the application, money talks Anthony Okolie. Anthony. >> Thanks very much, Greg. As you mentioned, Canadian GDP came in at .1% month over month which compares to the .3% estimate by stats Canada. We got a flash estimate from stats Canada. They say that they economy it contracted in March and that suggest that real GDP continues to track at an annualized weight of 2 1/2% in the first quarter, slightly below expectations. But it is broadly in line with the Bank of Canada's most recent outlook or estimate of 2.3%. Now, the next chart I have kind of breaks down what we are seeing in terms of GDP by sector. You can see gains on the good side was really driven by the construction sector which advanced for the fifth straight month. On the services side, we saw some gains in education services as well asprofessional, scientific, technical services. And what was dragging down GDP growth was wholesale trade. Losses in that sector really logged by auto parts and accessories subsector. Overall, though, the report points to continued strength in the Canadian economy, but it does give the Bank of Canada some breathing room after some hawkish messages in recent weeks. TD Economics believes that the leg effects of the rate hikes need time to work through the economy, to tame inflation. It doesn't mean that there are more rate hikes on the table but rate cuts are probably unlikely until 2024. > Interesting to get this Canadian read on the economy and the day after we got a read on the US economy. What's happening south of the border? >> In the US, we got some recent US economic data that indicate signs of softness in the US economy. Today, we got the Fed's favourite inflation measure which is a Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index which rose .3% in March which was in line with economists. But again, it points to some cooling of inflation. We got some consumer spending data which came in flat in March as well and tailing off considerably from the January splurge. On Thursday, course, we got US GDP, the first quarter, again, which suggests the US economy slowed much greater than expected. Earlier this week, we spoke to Anna Castro who discussed how the credit crunch is squeezing an already slowing US economy. Take a listen. >> You're seeing consumer confidencelike retail sales and growth to be lower than they were before as well as manufacturing activity, mainly because it's now more expensive to borrow and it's also harder to borrow. >> And of course, that full interview with Anna Castro will be available on MoneyTalk gold. Anthony's Wednesday gram. Later on the show, we will tell you what's coming up next week but we want to stick with the economy right now. Earlier I had a chance to meet with Hafiz Noordin and talk about the future path of interest rates. >> Yeah. And, you know, we're trying to figure out the end of the rate hike cycle. You know, we're getting close. The story is pretty straightforward in Canada here. We know that the Bank of Canada's been on hold at 4.5% since January. And, from what the market is pricing, that's going to stay that way until the second half of the year. But outside of Canada, there's still a number of central banks, big ones, that are still trying to get those last few rate hikes in. And so, the next ones that we have on deck, the Bank of Japan, we'll see it overnight on Thursday. And, like you said, the Fed next week, and also the ECB. And why is this important, as a Canadian investor, to monitor this? Well, we know the Bank of Canada can influence short end rates in Canada. But longer-dated bond yields, 10-year yields, 30-year yields, can really be volatile based on what some of these larger, global central banks do. >> Let's talk about the big one, which is a week away. And that'd be the US Federal Reserve. The indication seems to be that they're not done yet. But at the same time, you have some stresses showing up in the banking system south of the border. It's the regional banks, and they have sort of specific things happening for those names. But it's not something that the Fed can dismiss. I mean, they did acknowledge it last time. But at the same time, it didn't stop them. >> That's right. And number one job still is inflation. There's been encouraging news, at least out of the last CPI print in the US, which was that inflation is elevated. But one of the big drivers of inflation, shelter inflation, did moderate downwards. And we're starting to see what the market was hoping to see and what it was expecting, which was a sort of gradual decline in housing-related inflation. And that usually is kind of the big macro-- defines the big macro trend in US CPI. Having said that, the breadth of inflation, so the number of categories that are still elevated in the CPI basket, is still high. So for the Fed right now, I think maintaining their credibility around fighting inflation is still critical, which is why we think they will deliver this 25 basis point hike next week, even though we're starting to see these issues around First Republic, as you mentioned. But they do need to deliver that. And then I think the uncertainty is going to be after that, where the markets, interestingly, pricing a reversal of that cut, perhaps in September, maybe even as early as July, because of the-- >> So after we stop hiking, the market actually thinks you could be that quick in terms of a turnaround, the pivot, right? I mean, the thing that people kept throwing out the pivot all through last year. You'd see these rallies on pivot hopes that faded. >> Right. Yeah, it's interesting. How do we characterize it? It almost even reads like a policy mistake. What's the point of this last hike? Well, I think what the market is thinking is that, over the course of the next few months, with this last rate hike, helping to get inflation to come down in a more sustainable way. But also, I think what's been happening is that there's the introduction of more downside risks to growth. We've seen that in the manufacturing sector, but certainly, all of the stress around the banking sector amplifies the risk of downside growth, which is why we'll see cuts, perhaps starting even this summer. >> Now, this gets a little bit more esoteric, for those who are outside of fixed income. But the idea of yield curve control. I get a sense, and correct me if I'm wrong, that maybe when we hear from the Bank of Japan, we might get a little something on that front. >> It's definitely the most topical piece in terms of the Bank of Japan. And going back seven years or so of yield curve control policy that's been there, trying to keep the ten-year yield close to zero. But it's been a very unsustainable policy, especially with global inflation rising, and moreover, because the Bank of Japan, with that policy, and with QE more broadly, now owns over half of the Japanese government bond market. And so, it's really a poster child of distorting the market. And really, that pressure is there to take that policy back. But it has to be done very gradually, because it's just been such a long-standing policy, that it's very ingrained in terms of how investors, how big investors in Japan, that have been allocating capital. So what we'll likely see, it may not be at this meeting, but it's really unknown when it'll happen. We'll likely see an increase in the band, the allowed band. Right now, it's half a percent of how much 10-year bond yields in Japan can vary from the 0% target. So if they go from half a percent to 75 basis points, we'll see a lot of volatility in the Japanese bond market. And that could certainly propagate over into our domestic bond market here. >> Would yield curve control become an issue or a tool that a Fed-- US Federal Reserve would want to use, other central banks? Or is this sort of a phenomenon to Japan at the moment? >> I think it was a bit unique to them, just in terms of how far they went with QE. They needed-- they needed something else to be able to guide markets towards keeping borrowing conditions very, very loose. And this goes back, again, seven years ago when inflation was completely non-existent. I think when you look at the US, Canada, Europe, clearly, we've seen in this cycle that inflation has been alive and well. And I think, going towards the next cycle, the standard tools we've seen in terms of the policy rate and in QE are probably what we're looking at. I think the bar for YCC is very high. >> When we talk about the effects, the cumulative effect of all these aggressive rate hikes and the fact that the market thinks they might have to pivot and turn direction that quickly coming off of hikes and then jumping right into cuts, almost after they're done, what does it tell us about how we're supposed to think about central bank policy? I mean, the whole idea that, OK, we hiked today, and we're not going to see the effect on the economy for 12, 18 months down the road. Are those rules sort of thrown out the window if they've got to be this reactive? >> Well, I think it's that they have to be data-dependent. And the reality is, as much as they like to provide forward guidance, they don't know where things are going. They can provide a base case in their own projections. And the Fed did that at the last meeting. The market itself is, essentially, an average of a number of different outcomes. And so, yes, there's a base case that they'll hike. And then growth will gradually come down, and inflation will gradually come down. But there's definitely the hard landing type of scenario, where they may have to even cut quicker than what the market's expecting. On the flip side, there's definitely a scenario where inflation stays stickier than what it's priced in, and that we don't get to a 3% to 4% CPI by the end of the year. And that would mean that rate cuts wouldn't happen this year. So I think there is still very much a wide range of scenarios. And in terms of central banks, they just have to make sure they are data-dependent, not overly commit to particular policy, and be willing to be flexible. >> Those Hafiz Noordin, Portfolio manager with TD Asset Management. In that discussion from a couple days ago, we did talk about the Bank of Japan be on deck. We have heard from them. They did leave their interest rates unchanged. Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading. Concerns about growth in Amazon's club business appear to be overshadowing a strong quarter. The e-commerce giant posted better-than-expected sales. We saw some strengthen their advertising revenue as well, adding to that be. And while Amazon Web Services revenue was up 16%, that was the weakest growth since the company began breaking out those AWS results. Amazon also says clients are being cautious on cloud spending given all the economic uncertainty. You can see the stock down about 3.7%. We've got Intel reporting the biggest quarterly loss in the company's history. The semiconductor giant posted a net loss of $2.8 billion in the first quarter, that's 133% decline compared to the profit posted in the same period a year earlier. Now you can see, the stock is up a little bit more than 4%. All that said, on an adjusted basis, the loss per share was better than Wall Street expectations. Intel is also forecasting a modest loss for the current quarter and he does say that the PC market appears to be stabilizing. TC Energy beating expectations for the most recent quarter on strength in its power and natural gas pipelines division. Behind that, revenue was up more than 12% compared to the same period last year. Now TC Energy also provided an update on its Coastal GasLink project, saying it's now roughly 87% complete. Will say that's about 2% to the upside. The cheap is a gain of about 130 points. Energy gains of the rising price of crude oil today. Said to the border, it's been a very busy week for big tech earnings. Not just big tech, some others in the mix, but they've been in the head lines. On the last trading day of the month, they are up 26 points, a little smaller than half a percent. You have the price of gold setting in recent sessions after that big move higher in recent weeks but as investors consider the future path of interest rates, could that trend be on hold? Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy TD Securities join us earlier to discuss. >> OK, well, it has been a very, very great time for gold. Gold, over the last 12 months has outperformed pretty much every other major asset class. It has done well last year, for much of it anyway. It has done very well this year. And our view continues to be quite positive on gold. But in the interim, we do think there is room for a bit more of a correction. But what got us to this great performance by gold? I think gold has done very well despite of the fact that we had a very, very hawkish Fed, one that has continued to signal a very restrictive narrative for the balance of the year. Inflation continues to be high, yet gold has done very well. And there is a bit of a two-sided story here. At the beginning of the tightening cycle, everyone agreed with the idea that we're going to have significantly higher rates and monetary policy that will be restrictive. And gold, to everyone's surprise, certainly, all the gold bugs were quite happy to see gold perform well. And we attribute this to the fact that central banks, and retail investors, and other investors around the world have very, very strong appetite for physical gold. Indeed, last year, we saw a record 1,136 tons of gold being acquired by central banks and the official sector broadly, with even China officially telling us after a long pause that they are accumulating gold. Retail investors as well, during a period of higher inflation in Europe, in Asia, we've seen very, very, very strong demand for gold and silver, as well as investors wanted to have physical metal to protect against the ravages of inflation. >> So what are they trying to protect against by record buying of physical gold? >> Well, they're trying to protect against inflation, broadly. There is an element of distrust where they feel much more secure in holding physical bars as opposed to IOUs. And let's not forget that gold is no one's liability. If you have a bar, you have a bar. There is intrinsic value. Nobody has to pay you an interest rate. You just have a bar of gold that's worth something. And for the central banks, it looks like there is continued movement towards Bullion, particularly in emerging markets where we've seen the share of gold relative to the US dollar increase, and the share of dollars in FX reserves for emerging markets has been going down in favor of gold. And I think that stems from, to some extent, the sanctions that were imposed by the Western world, the US and Europe, on Russia, where it looked like half of their FX reserves in dollars and euros and other Western currencies was rendered useless. There's nothing they could do with it. Meanwhile, gold, we suspect they can physically move over and get credits at other banks or central banks. And that's something we cannot stop. And the view out there is something we agree with, as tensions between China and the Western world, the US in particular, rise. That might be a strategy that the Chinese might want to follow. And after all, the Chinese have a massive foreign exchange reserve, about $3.18 trillion. And only about 3.6% of it is in gold. And you compare that to the United States, which is well over 60, France, around 60, Germany, over 60, Italy, over 60. So they are very much underrepresented in the share of gold they hold in their reserves. And many reasons aside the geopolitics, you might want to have a larger share, because the dollar's share in trade may go lower and you should have currencies and assets that are consistent with your trade flows, not necessarily in what you consider to be a good investment always. There are also worries by central banks and other investors that the US has sky high debt, unfunded liabilities in the form of Social Security and other expenditures, taxes that are relatively low, and there might be a stealth monetization where interest rates might remain lower than they ought to, and inflation higher above target. In fact, that is some reason why gold has done so well. There is a big discrepancy in what the Federal Reserve thinks the interest rates will be a year from now at the end of the year. Then the bond market, I think I cite in my paper that there's 110 basis spreads between the dots and where the Fed funds futures market says, that moves up and down. But that is quite a chasm here, where traders, gold speculators, and investors have a credibility. The Fed has a credibility problem with them. It will remain to be seen who is right in the end. And if we see some of that change, we ultimately think that that spread is going to close down a little bit over the next few months. The US economy continues to do quite well. And it could very well be-- we think that it's likely we're going to have a May hike. And that's already started to price in. >> Is that the short-term pressure on gold you-- you talked a lot of constructive stuff longer term, but shorter term, medium-term. >> I think that's probably exactly what happened. This rally, the most recent one that brought gold to 2,048 or so, the peak, we did extremely well, was very much short cover driven. So people are short covering their positions. There was, of course, some long extensions. And now that we think that spread between where the Fed is and where the market is might be coming in, we could see new shorts being acquired again, and maybe some long liquidations where people might want to take some profits. After all, they did very, very, very well. Our view continues to be that the average second quarter price for gold will be about 1,975 average. So almost by definition, given the fact that quarter-to-date price is averaging about $2,004, so if you do the math, we're still expecting some downside. >> That was Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Now let's get our educational segment of the day. If you're interested in finding stocks that pay a dividend, WebBroker has tools which can help. Joining us and with Maurice Caitlin Cormier, client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. Caitlin, always good to see you. Walk us through it all. >> Thanks, Greg. Yeah, so dividends are basically, one definition of a dividend is distributions made by a company to shareholders. These funds come from corporate earnings and they can be paid on a regular basis or they can be paid as a one-off. A lot of different companies may pay, for example, quarterly dividends. You need to be a holder of record on the date to purchase the stock for the ex dividend date, some important information to keep in mind. Dividends can be an incentive for some investors. They may choose to invest in dividend type stocks to receive that kind of regular income. The idea behind it is regardless of what's going on with the stock price, hopefully you can still depend on that dividend coming in, if it's one of those types of companies that will continue to pay kind of even in the tougher times. So what I want to do is show you actually our stock screener and how you can look for dividend specific investments within WebBroker. So if we hop into the research tab within WebBroker, we are going to go over to the tools tab and we are going to choose the fourth one down there, which is screeners. So once we get to this page, we are going to stick under the stock screener and I'm actually going to look at our preset screens here. So in here, we have a few different preset screens that you can look at which kind of have the criteria already put in. It kind of provides you some names to consider. And again, you can put some additional criteria in if you so choose. So maybe I'll just look at this one today. Top dividends, so stocks paying and growing their dividends for shareholders that see cash income from their investments. So if you click on that, we can see the criteria that is listed here is we are looking at the five year growth rate of the dividend, the dividend yield, so what the amount of the dividend is divided by the market price of the stock, the actualstock price and share type, so whether it's a preferred share or a common share. So if we scroll down, we can see it there is a 582 matches, which is definitely a bit overwhelming. We probably want to filter down a little bit further to get a more manageable number to look at. So we can see right at the top, there are some things like, for example, we could choose just Canadian or US stocks. For example, we could click into more criteria and we can look at kind of what criteria is in here and maybe make some changes to that or add additional information. So maybe you want to look at a stock price and maybe we want to put like a cap. so we want a minimum a stock price of $50 and we don't want to pay more than $200 per share. so let's see, yeah, that's going to narrow us down for sure. We are down to 197 matches from that share price. We can click on your share type and it's already just giving us common shares so that's good. And maybe we are looking for a dividend yield, maybe we are subscribing to the idea that maybe sometimes things are too good to be true and we don't want to go to high on our dividend yield. Let's just say 9% is where we want to max it out and maybe we want at least a 4% dividend yield. So now we are down to 40 total matches, so that's definitely a more manageable number of matches to look through. So if I scroll down here, this is both Canadian and US companies, it's when you show me the 40 matches and is going to arrange them based on kind of which 1 They Think Is, #1 out of these matches. If I click over here on the company name, it's going to give me some information about the company. So for example, the symbol and what exchange is it listed on. It's going to show is here the website for the companies so I can do some additional research there, or I can go to informational this company within WebBroker. I can also see why they are ranking at number one, they are telling me that based on the criteria that I have, how it is ranked as number one. It's got that higher five year average growth as well as a higher dividend yield, for example. I can also go back and exactly what I've just done, I clicked on a company name and it's prearranged, based on company name, I can rearrange based on dividend yield. So if I wanted for example the highest dividend yield, I could do that. If I wanted to rearrange my stock price, as you will see, there's quite a bit that I can do to rearrange the results to kind of get more when I'm looking for. So that is one way to kind of find some different names of companies that might be paying dividends to maybe make a watchlist and dive a little deeper in to see if that might be something that we want to do some further research in. >> Caitlin, you did mention that if someone is interested in dividend investing, they should be aware of stocks going ex dividend, and dates are associated with that. How do you find out about that in WebBroker? >> Yeah, great question. So as I said, the ex dividend is basically the first day that the stock will trade without the dividend. So if you buy a stock on the ex dividend date, you will not be eligible for that upcoming dividend that's been declared. They want to make sure you get in before that ex dividend date so it's an important date to be aware of. Let's go back to WebBroker of this time we will click on research but instead, we will go under stocks. Sorry, we are going to go research and under markets, we are going to go under events. we can find out more about a specific company if we already know about them. Buthere we want to find out about ex dividend days. So research, markets and events. It's going to show me a bunch of different events but what I'm focusing on here today is dividends. Now, this is showing me all companies that have an ex dividend date of today but if you will remember what I said just a moment ago, if I buy the stocks today, I will not get that dividend that we can see the payment date of so I may want to change this, for example, to a future date, so maybe the next trading day. So I want to see which companies have an ex dividend date of Monday, so far by them today, I will be eligible for that upcoming dividend that's been declared. So for example, this is a list of Canadian stocks that have ex dividend date of Monday. I can also switch between Canada and the US. So if I would like to see US companies again, as of May 1, these are the companies that have a me first ex dividend date. I can go a bit further and time as well, I brought the calendar, I can jump around and see different companies that have those ex dividend dates and then kind of make the decision about whether it's something I want to look further into. >> Great stuff as always, Caitlin. Thanks a lot. > No problem. >> Caitlin Cormier, client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars. After a year of aggressive rate moves, the markets are anticipating that central banks are nearing the end of their hiking cycles. What could that mean for real estate? Colin Lynch, head of global real estate investing the TD Asset Management join me earlier with his view. >> Well, we read it through a bit as stability. So as you mentioned, we've had changes in the interest rates in response to inflation. What's the impact on real estate? Ultimately, if you have leverage, if you're a developer, your debt tends to be variable, right? There are also owners of real estate that do have variable rate debt, and as those interest rates went up, the cost of debt increased. So certainly, now, when we have a view from the markets that we are nearing the end of the hiking cycle, that does provide some stability, whether you're a developer in terms of your modeling, whether you're an owner of real estate as well. In addition to that, we have also seen some changes in the yield curve, and when you look out five or 10 years, certainly, the pricing has come down. And that's important, because some of the fixed-rate debt is actually priced based off of bond yields. So as those yields have come down, the cost of debt has also come down. Now, we're significantly above where we were last year and the year before. So certainly, still more challenging from a leverage perspective, but certainly benefiting as the cost of debt has come down. So that is providing a bit of floor stability right across the commercial real estate space. There are still pockets of challenge and still pockets of opportunity, but broadly positive now that we are reaching a stabilizing environment for rates. >> Commercial can mean a lot. Let's talk about office only in the sense that we know there's been some concerns recently. My own life might not be much of a test case, but I couldn't get a seat on the train for two days in a row now. So people are coming back to the office, but office is still challenged. >> Yeah, that's right. So it is important to recognize that we are seeing a pickup in physical office use. We are certainly not where we were in 2019, but to your point, certainly midweek, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays across much of North America, we are seeing an increased return to the office, conversely, not so much Fridays and modestly on Mondays. That's a North American phenomenon. London and Europe is a bit similar, but certainly, when you get to the continent, European continent plus several Asia-Pacific cities, we are seeing a much more robust return to the office, four to five days a week. And that's important, because sentiment in terms of owners and occupiers of office is a bit different around the world, a much more positive sentiment in the Asia-Pacific, and parts of Australia, and parts of continental Europe than we see here. Here in North America, we have two things. One is what we just talked about, the physical return increasing, but not at 2019 levels. We also have questions about the economy, and where are we, and ultimately, real estate does serve the economy. So if the economy is slowing, that will impact the degree to which tenants are expanding or using more space or contracting or using less space. The other thing that happens in an environment where there is questions on pace of growth in the economy, is tenants use that opportunity to upgrade space. So space that was in a higher quality, better located building that was not available that does become available, tenants might use that opportunity to move from what we would call a B class or C class office building to an A class or double-A or triple-A. So we've seen that pretty much universally in previous periods of economic slowdown, and we are seeing it now. So when you look across leasing, we've seen those better quality, newer, well-amenitized buildings have higher leasing than those older buildings right across North America. >> Well, let's talk residential, because we have some interesting dynamics setting up. As you said earlier, you're seeing some stability now when it comes to the rate environment. We're also seeing record immigration into this country. How does that play into the rental market? Before the pandemic, purpose build. People keep saying, oh, we need more apartments, we need more apartments. Where are we at? >> We certainly do need more apartments. So to your point, immigration of 2021 was nearly 850,000 in Canada. Last year, in 2022, over 1,050,000. My understanding is that we are on a similar pace this year. So a lot of demand, and that's comprised of economic immigration. You also have refugees. You have international students, and international students has been quite significant, both last year and this year and is expected to continue. So we have significant demand. What is the pace of supply? And when you look across the apartment stock, the condominium stock, and new housing, in general, the pace of supply is not keeping up with demand. And we're seeing that in terms of pricing. Certainly, when you look at rental pricing, so how much are you paying to rent a space, that is up significantly. So today, we're seeing asking rents much above in-place rents, and we anticipate that to continue. Because ultimately, vacancy across the country is declining significantly, and in major metropolitan markets, like Toronto, in Vancouver, in Montreal, we're seeing vacancy come down to where we were pre-pandemic, and in some cases, lower. So ultimately, that does drive rents higher, and that's a fundamental supply demand equilibrium, lots of demand, limited supply. So as a result, the pricing and the rental prices have increased. >> Those higher rents would seem like an incentive for the industry to build more. Are we seeing that reaction not only in real time, but in a timely fashion that actually gets us more supply to house everyone in this country? >> That's a really good question. So certainly, the industry would like to build more. There are some hurdles to overcome in order to build more. So on the one hand, one has to work through a planning process in order to get the permitting, the zoning approval in order to build. It depends on which municipality you're working with across the country. That can take some time or a lot of time, and increasingly, it's taking more and more time to get approvals through the system. The other thing that's happened is we have had, as we've seen throughout society, inflation, and that has impacted the cost of building. So whether you're looking at the cost of materials or you're looking at the cost of labor, both have increased quite materially during the pandemic. So as a result, if the cost of building and the length of time required for approval means that it takes a lot more time or it is more expensive to build, then that actually de-incentivizes builders for building a lot more inventory. So therefore, when we come back to that demand and supply question, that's actually restricting supply at a time when we have a lot more demand. > I was Colin Lynch, head of global real estate investing with TD Asset Management. Let's check in on the markets, last trading day of the week, illustrating day of the month. On the other side of the beacon, it will be me. 20,641, your hundred and 18 points to the upside, little more than half a percent. We are seeing an ice bit into American benchmark crew today and that has some of the big energy names putting points on the table. Let's check in on Suncor right now, up a little shy of 2 1/2% at 4230. Little bit of weakness in some of the miners today, nothing too dramatic but let's check in on the Lundin Mining. They are down a little bit more than 1%. It has been a big week south of the border for making Tech earnings. Right now, even though there are some concerns about the latest earnings from Amazon in terms of the web, the cloud service, Amazon Web Services, it may be slowing a little bit, it still got some green on the screen to the broader market. 23 bucks to points to the upside. The NASDAQ is up a little bit more than 1/10 of a percent. Let's check in on Amazon shares. Even though it did have a strong quarter, their concerns about growth in the club business. At hundred and five bucks and trained for here, he fought Amazon down almost 4%. As we get ready to say goodbye to this week, we are getting ready for a big right decision from the US Federal Reserve when we return for the month of May. Moneytalk's Anthony Okolie joins us now with a preview. > That's right. I think the big focus next week will be on the feds meeting, which gets underway on Tuesday, May 2, followed with a fed interest rate decision on May 3. With inflation still elevated and core inflation still pretty sticky, TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates 25 basis points next week. That would take the Fed funds rate to between a range of 5 to 5 1/4%, and the market Outlook right now, when you take a look at the US yield curve, is indicating a 25 basis point rate hike that has been largely priced in. But the market right now is largely pricing and a pause and rate cuts by September, according to TD Securities. Now, TD Security says that the market reaction will be based on the Tet feds tone particularly when it comes to around lending conditions, growth, inflation as well as guidance on further hikes or the threshold to cut rates. Of course, next week we will be interviewing Hafiz Noordin, portly manager at TD Asset Management next week, and this will be immediately after the Fed rate decision, and we will come to you with a reaction from the markets following that decision. Now, after this, we get some more economic data with the US and Canadian April jobs report next Friday, and this will hopefully give us an indication if the cumulative aggressive rate hikes in Canada and the United States are starting to have an impact on what is being a pretty resilient jobs market here in Canada and the US. When it comes to the US payrolls, TD Securities is expecting that payrolls will slow down for 1/3 consecutive month to a still firm pace in April. They do see the unemployment rate rising in the United States to 3. 6%. Here in Canada, TD Securities expects the Canadian economy to add a below trend 50000 Jobs in April and the unemployment rate to edge higher, to 5.1%, but wage growth cooling to about 4. 7% year-over-year. I think the main narrative will continue to be a three-legged stool, you got earnings, economic data and the Fed going for. >> It'll be a busy week. You will be on top of it and will rest up over the weekend. Thanks. >> My pleasure. >> Moneytalk's Anthony Okolie. We are now heading into the weekend but on Monday, you want to stay tuned. Michael Craig, head of Sasset allocation atTD Asset Management will be our guest take your questions about asset allocation. And reminded even get a head start, just email moneytalklive@td.com. On behalf of me, Anthony and everyone behind the scenes, thanks for watching and we'll see you next week. [music]