Market Insights

[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell.

Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing.

Coming up on today show: it TD Asset Management Scott Colbourne is going to lay out the potential opportunity for fixed income this year.s

We will discuss how long the Bank of Canada may stay on hold after this week's rate hike with Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities. And we are going to have a look at whether semiconductor stocks could be in for a solid performance this year with TD Asset Management at Julien Nono-Womdim.

plus, Jason Hnatyk shows us how to find tax information on the platform. Forget all that, let's get you an update on the market.

A bit of an indecisive day out there. We are modestly in negative territory on Bay Street, doubt about five points, two tics right now.

seeing some weakness in gold related names.

But we are coming off the lows of the session.

We are getting a bit of a bid to the energy stocks, at least the last time I checked so let's check in on Cenovus. At 2710, it's to the upside, just a little shy 1%. I want to check in on Kinross there. I noticed some weakness in the mining stocks.

This is where some of the weight is coming for the topline number for the TSX, six bucks and $0.29 per share, they are down about 2.8%. South of the border, we've got investors digesting economic news, corporate news, it's a bit of a mixed bag. We do have some green on the screen. It's an indecisive start to the session today.

We are up 1/4 of a percent on that brought a read of the American market, the S&P 500, about 10 points. The tech heavy NASDAQ, a lot of tech earnings this week, there is no mention to the upside, up a little bit more than half a percent.

Amazon, one of the mega-cap tech names with a bit of a bit today, hundred and two bucks and change, the stock is up 2.9%. That is your market update.

We've got the latest read on one of the economic indicators preferred by the US Federal Reserve this morning.

Some indication that perhaps inflation continues to ease.

The important one ahead of next week.

Joining us now for more is Anthony Okolie.

>> Thanks so much. The Fed's favourite gauge of inflation, the core PCE Index, rose 3% month over month in December. When you look at the year-over-year numbers, it decelerated to 2.4%. That's the slowest pace since October 2021.

Of course, it's down from the 4.7% number in November, so there are some signs that inflation is easing for the Fed.

>> The preferred measure of the Fed and probably one of the last big data points before they go into that big two day meeting where they come out next Wednesday with the rate decision.

We had hours this week. We had Tiff Macklem with the Bank of Canada saying 25 basis points higher and we are going to hold here for a little while, try to figure out what we have done. Heading into Wednesday with this kind of information, what is the market thinking about the Fed?

>> I think right now the markets are pricing in another 25 basis point rate hike bringing the rate to between 4.5 and 4.75%.

It would market slower pace of rate hikes.

We got this inflation number which is good. We have seen some other datathat points to signs of economic slowdown. US consumer spending fell in December.

we've got the real US GDP number from the fourth quarter. Even though it did climb for the second consecutive quarter, it's down from the third quarter as well.

Again, we are seeing some signs of cooling inflation, the slowing of the economy, but we have to see, will the Fed hike and how much further will it tight this year?

>> Of course, because the Fed, what they have been telling us, not only Jerome Powell, the chair, there the Fed governors who go out and make statements.

They have sounded downright hawkish lately. Even though you are noting these data points, inflation is easing, it's still a pretty hawkish tone from them. The bond market has been sort of say, we don't think you're going to go as far as you say. They think the terminal rate is much higher than the bond market thinks it. It will be interested to see how the bond market in the Fed and track next week after the decision.

>> The bond market is saying one thing and the Fed officials are saying another. We call corporate earnings as well.

We had some big banks coming out and saying their base cases for a mild recession.

There some layoffs in the tech sector.

There is a lot happening right now.

Certainly, the Fed will have to make sense of all this information. We'll see what happens next week.

>> We are going to have full coverage. I know you have special interviews lined up. We have interviews lined up for the show on the other side of that right decision which is going to be a big one. Our thanks to Anthony.

Anthony Okolie peered let's stick with the central bank. Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada raise its key interest rate by another 25 basis points. That was the eighth hike in a row. Now they are signalling that they are expecting to hold for the time being. We spoke with Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities to get his take on it.

>>they were very careful to specifically qualify their statement that they expect to keep the overnight rate on hold. Conditional on the economy unfoldingin line with inflation. So if inflation does not come out as quickly as they expect, they are telling us they will freeze again.

If stronger than anticipated, it would bring additional rate hikes back into play.

we do believe the main event is done here.

This 25 basis point move would be the last move from the Bank of Canada of the cycle.

It seems the Bank of Canada does agree.

Because one thing I would like to believe, that after some of the difficulties with communications, with the Street, and with the public the bank experienced really, through the latter part of 2021 and the early part of 2022, that they wouldn't make these statements lightly. So I have to believe that they have a fairly high degree of confidence that there's enough tightening already in place, that we're starting to see signs of the economy slow, which gives them enough comfort that inflation will likely be coming lower.

So from our perspective, the real question isn't will the bank tighten again? It's more a question of when can they start easing?

>> They were fairly explicit in saying that, right? I think if I went through the statement, the only thing that might have stood out for me is being, OK, this is a pretty strong statement in terms of we've done this, and now we plan to sit back, watch the effect we've had through the economy unless something forces our hand.

Was that a bit more than we were expecting, that they would be that explicit about it?

>> It's more than I was expecting, certainly, just because again, I thought given some of the uncertainty around the economy, and not just this cycle. This cycle is an extraordinary cycle given all the fiscal stimulus interplayed with monetary stimulus, so many factors globally impacting the Canadian economy but in general it's really hard to pick out turning points in a policy cycle.

The meeting-- this was a tricky-ish meeting for them just in terms of their communication.

The 25 basis points, that was the easy part. It's the communication that was more difficult.

So I would have thought they would want to give themselves a little bit more wiggle room in terms of being able to adjust further in March or April if the economy proved to be more resilient than anticipated.

But, it's clear that they think there's enough tightening in place that we are starting to see those impacts, and we will continue to see them through 2023.

Because one thing they did highlight was that we haven't seen the full impact of the rate hikes already in place yet.

Monetary policy works with a lag. Interest rates don't reset instantaneously. Not all interest rates anyways.

The impacts of just the tightening that we'd seen prior to today still will be felt through this year, and I think they're very cognizant of that. And it does suggest that they are concerned about the risks of over-tightening, as well as the risks of under-tightening both of which are very real.

>> Now part of the rationale behind all this, saying that we're seeing some signs of slowing demand in the economy, let's pause. Let's see what the effect we've had. Also, that the fight against inflation, they appear to be signaling here that they think they're making some pretty good progress in terms of their projections, thinking they get back to target by next year. Is that feasible? Is that realistic?

>> I think that to target by next year is realistic, because in part, inflation-- the target's a year-over-year number. If they can get to a sustainable rate of inflation by the latter part of this year it will get us back to target inflation in 2024. By the end of 2023 most of those inflation prints from last year, which were so surprising to many of us, they won't be in the calculation anymore. That's just the nature of inflation.

Now, in terms of the sort of composition here, the bank clearly does see evidence that goods inflation is likely to come off here.

We've seen supply chains heal. A lot of the supply chain issues that we saw during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 were a result of the global economy.

Not just Canadians, but the global economy, shifting from goods consumption-- sorry, from services consumption to goods consumption. When the entire world stopped going to restaurants and started ordering consumer electronics, that stressed the ability of those factories produce those chips to produce those phones, and it stressed the ability of ports to handle the ships needed to take those from point A to point B.

Now that goods demand is slowed globally, we're seeing those supply chain disruptions lessen.

That will have a downward impact on goods inflation.

Services inflation will be a bit stickier.

I think that is the real wild card here, because we know the labor market is very tight.

But the bank does believe that with the slowing in the economy that they expect to see, that will be enough to bring both goods inflation lower, and a little bit of moderation service inflation to ultimately bring inflation back under control.

And ultimately, that has to be their bet here, because if they didn't believe that, they wouldn't be able to signal a pause here.

>> For anyone who's studying their countdown clocks, what's the time here? We're a little after noon Eastern time, so we are one week and roughly two hours away from hearing from the US Federal Reserve. Now, I don't think Jerome Powell is going to phone Tiff Macklem, say buddy, I just don't know what to do. I saw what you guys did. Guide my way. But is there anything out of what we're getting today from our central bank that might inform us about the future path of the Fed and what we might get from them?

>> I don't know if it will inform the Fed, per se. But some of the factors that are impacting Canada are also impacting the Fed. The goods inflation story is a global story, not just a domestic story. So the same way we expect to see less in the way of goods inflation in Canada, so too will we in the US. Oil prices are global prices. With energy prices lower in Canada, so too are they in the US. And we have heard from Fed officials talking about how they think a slower pace of tightening would be more appropriate.

So I do think it foreshadows what we're likely to see from the Fed, not in terms of the explicit forward guidance.

We don't think the Fed will be done with this meeting.

But it does sort of fit with this idea that central banks, certainly in North America, are closer to the end than they are to the beginning.

Europe is another story. But we can cover that another time.

>> Or even get that question later in the show. Before we get off this topic, I just want to ask you about the fact that we are going to get from the Bank of Canada what we're not accustomed to, the equivalent of the Fed minutes. We're going to get to pull back the curtain.

They're going to have a release for us in the coming days. I can't remember it's one week or two weeks away.

Would this put any more color into these deliberations?

Is this useful for us as people who watch the markets and watch the influence of central banks?

>> In an ideal world, no, it wouldn't be useful because they would have done a perfect job of-- >> Communicating.

>> Explaining, exactly. We would read the statement. We would read the MPR. And we would know exactly why they did what they did. But in the real world, any additional piece of information is helpful for context.

They are by their nature backward looking. It tells us what they thought two weeks prior.

And I'll be really interested to see how much detail goes in, because we don't really know what these are going to look like.

Will they be scrubbed of all the interesting details?

Will we find out the differences in the individual deputy governors' views?

Because one thing that's different between Canada and the US, in the US, every Fed governor can go off and say whatever they think.

If they get a vote, it all becomes public. The Bank of Canada speaks with one voice. When you hear from one deputy governor you're hearing the same message from another deputy governor, or the governor himself. It will be interesting to see a bit of the variety of views across governing council if they allow us that degree of detail. Because again, they could scrub all the really interesting bits out if they so choose, in which case, I will have to write a very dry report.

>> That was Andrew Kelvin, she Canada strategist with TD Securities.

Now let's get you updated on some of the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading.

Shares of Intel are in the spotlight today.

The chip marker not onlyMr. Marc on earnings by a wide margin, it's also warning investors a week demand for personal computers this year.

Intel is also losing share in the data centre market.

The stock is down some 45% from its 52 week high.

it is down 7 1/2% at the lunchtime trading hour.

American Express is providing an optimistic group its revenue growth this year. The credit card giantess forecasting sales growth of up to 17%, hiding a believes the businesses well-positioned to hit double-digit growth longer term. American Express also plans to raise its dividend by 15%.

The shares up more than 11%.

Hasbro planning to cut 15% of its workforce following a disappointing holiday shopping season.

The company says weakness in traditional toy offerings overshadowed strengthen its digital gaming division.

Hasbro scheduled to release its quarterly earnings on from your 16th. The stock is down about 6%.

In Toronto, there is some weakness in the mining stocks and strength in the energy space.

This is where the fight has landed at the moment. The TSX Composite Index is down 12 points, about six takes.

Nothing dramatic.

South of the border, investors trying to pursue corporate earnings, the recent reads on inflation, what it could mean for the Fed next week.

We got some modest grain, up 10 points on the S&P 500, exactly 1/4 of a percent.

Of course, Intel has painted a bleak picture of its fortunes going forward this year but we've actually seen a pretty impressive run to start the year so far for a lot of the semiconductor names.

So what's going on there? Earlier this week we had a chance to speak with Julien Nono-Womdim, semiconductor analyst at TD Asset Management. He explained it all.

>> There is optimism that in months ahead, it will start turning to growth and that will be constructive.

>> Is that a classic example of the market being a forward-looking instrument?

we were just talking about the PM eyes, the manufacturing that managers thinking things are getting weaker.

You get warnings from central banks that the economy could get soft going forward. And you get-- I got to add one more. You get warnings from big tech companies about job cuts, about cost reductions. Yet, the semis rally. Is this a forward-looking play?

>> It absolutely is a forward-looking play. Perhaps, let's go back to last year. 2022 semiconductor performance from an industry perspective was quite good. It's only through July Q3, Q4 where fundamentals started deteriorating. And yet, the sector was down 35% on the year.

The market front ran the deterioration on the fundamentals last year. And this year, the market is trying to do the same in the opposite direction, trying to front run the good news ahead.

>> Now, we're in the thick of earnings season as well.

I don't think we've heard from all the semi names.

You'd know better than me, but what have we heard so far?

>> Well, so far, it's been a reflection of what the market is telling us. Fundamentals are bad. Q4 earnings were mostly in line with expectations. But Q1 is going to deteriorate. Q2 is also likely to deteriorate.

This is happening across all end markets. Perhaps with the exception of automotives, there are some trends there alongside electrification and EVs that are supportive for the group. But nonetheless, fundamentals are weakening.

But companies are optimistic. They think that by the second half of this year, we should see a bit of a resumption to growth and partly aided by the reopening in China. What I'd say is the earnings estimates for the sector peaked in June of 2022. And since then, we've seen a 30% contraction in earnings estimates.

That is the largest estimate revision in over 10 years.

And so the market is starting to look past that, and companies as well. And they remain optimistic on the future.

>> Is that the biggest risk here, though? The bad optimism could maybe that doesn't actually appear in the second half of the year?

>> That is certainly a risk. If you think about the great financial crisis, earnings estimates fell by 100%.

You think about the early 2000s. Earnings estimates fell by over 60%-- close to 70%.

So the market is front-running bad news. But obviously, it's a dynamic adjustment.

And as we go into Q1 reporting and Q2 reporting, we'll have better colors what-- as what the next 12 months look like and the market will readjust accordingly.

>> OK, we're talking semiconductors. Obviously, these little chips are in a lot of the things and more and more of the things that we use every day. What about artificial intelligence? A lot of headlines are on Microsoft, their investment in ChatGPT. I always want to say GDP. I'm an old economics reported. But ChatGPT.

All of this buzz around it. What could that mean for semis?

>> Well, for context, ChatGPT is a chat bot, an artificial intelligence-based chat bot where people can ask questions.

And they get very detailed responses. The technology has actually been around for a number of years now. But it's the first time that it is available to the general public. And I think that from a semiconductor perspective, it bodes well for the entire sector.

These models that ChatGPT are based on, they require a lot of compute. And so OpenAI, which is the company that created ChatGPT, they are the first company, I believe, to have ever used more than 10,000 GPUs, which are the chips that Nvidia produces for training purposes. If you think about memory, that's another area that's going to be in high demand as you need more data to feed into the models.

>> Does it take 10,000 processors for that ChatGPT to talk to me like a human? Because I don't want to say I'm smarter than it, but I'm only using one brain-- one brain.

>> It takes a lot of compute, Greg. It certainly does.

And that's historically, the semiconductor industry, believe it or not, has actually done a very bad job at forecasting a long-term growth because there are always these end markets that open up. And so in the case we're talking about chat bots, which can over time, help businesses interact with their customers, there are other applications in health care, as you and I have talked about in the past.

There are an opening avenues for semiconductors to continue to grow. And I think this is yet another example that there are going to be opportunities within the sector to benefit from these structural growth drivers.

>> So this is the future in the here and now. We know that cloud computing is a big, important part of the market.

You think about Microsoft. And like, what do people want to know? They want to the health of the cloud.

Microsoft did warn us earlier this week that, like, they're seeing some slowdown-- some caution out there among their customers.

Well, what could that do for chip demand in the short term?

>> In the short term-- and we are starting to see it as, as I alluded to earlier-- chip demand will certainly slow down. However, there's a challenging and there's a fight between existing demand and future demand. You talked about ChatGPT. That underpins growth in the data center world, which is really what relates to cloud data center hardware. There's going to be some cyclicality.

And I think what is important for us to contextualize is that semiconductors are more analogous to industrials than they are to software. They are the lifeblood of the economy. And when the economy is contracting, demand for semiconductors goes down. When the economy is expanding, demand goes up. And that's reflected in higher CapEx spending by companies. And so in the near term, you are right that the slowdown in cloud is going to impact semiconductor demand.

>> That was Julien Nono-Womdim, semiconductor analyst with TD Asset Management.

Now, let's get to our educational segment of the day.

With tax season coming up, you may be wondering where you can find the documents you need on WebBroker.

Jason Hnatyk, Senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing has this explainer.

>> Now, tax season might not be everyone's favourite season, but that doesn't mean that it's not important to be prepared for it.

WebBroker has some very useful tools that help in that process. Today, we are going to walk through three important things that WebBroker has to offer.

we will walk through an important calendar of events, when you can expect your tax documents. You will find out where the documents are located in WebBroker, and then we will leave off with a bit of an educational opportunity for everyone. Let's jump to the platform.

The first place we will start is at the accounts tab at the top of the page. Under the self-service column on the right hand side, you will see that there is a tax information Centre.

Lots of great, important FAQs for everyone to access.

The one I would like to highly here's this first link on the left-hand side, and here is where we get a table of one everyone can expect to haveeither their documents to be put into the mail or posted into the e-services section within WebBroker as well as some key important information that will be included on the slips you can expect to receive.

So moving on to where you can find those pieces of information within WebBroker, that's an hour e-services section. You can either click on accounts at the top of the page and all the way at the bottom under account details, you see we have the document selection here.

Alternatively, you can click on your name in the top right-hand corner and there's also an e-services section there which is a quick reference guide for you to refer to. On this particular page, lots of great information.

Not all tax related. There your statements, your confirmations as well as your tax documents. Let's go take a look at the tax document section.

We are presently looking at the most recent tax year.

You also have the opportunity to look back at the most recent seven years of tax information.

We store that there for your convenience so in case you need it, if the CRA is looking for a little bit of extra information, you know you got saved right here.

If we look at the all selection and put in a search, this is going to give us all of our tax slips, all of our summary information as well as all the relevant tax packages, a great one-stop shop place to really make sure you got all the documents for your own needs or to provide to your accountant. And the last thing I will show you is a great opportunity to learn from a professional in the industry.

If we go up to the learn tab at the top of the page and then quickly go to our browse lessons section, we have a webinar that we recently recorded with one of our own here at TD, her name is Nicole Ewing. She is a very informative guest.

She has always advocated for strategies to be focused on your tax situation as in all year long process to help make things more convenient and help you take advantage of tools and strategies to make your life easier when it comes to filing.

So three great choices within WebBroker. Lots of opportunity to have the information to make sure you can make filing as easy as possible.

>> Our thanks to Jason Hnatyk, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing.

Make sure to check out the Learning Center and WebBroker from our educational videos, live, interactive master classes and some upcoming webinars, including five mistakes that may hinder an index investing plan.

Of course, the markets have been weighing on central bank action. We have seen in the past year how close they are to the end of the rate hiking cycle.

There is a growing focus on the potential opportunity, given all that, in fixed income this year. Scott Colbourne, managing director for active fixed income at TD Asset Management join me earlier to discuss.

>> Bond markets are up about 5 to 7%, so I wouldn't expect that to annualized performance going forward, but you are still talking about very good yields both in the government bond market and the commercial bond market. As a firm, we have generally liked fixed income for a while. We are coming towards the end of the rate cycle, at least in North America and emerging markets.

Europe and Japan, maybe elsewhere, but at the moment we are coming in towards the end of that rate hiking cycle.

We've got one or two more going forward.

>> Is that really the base condition right now, that indeed, we do get that scenario play out where we are expecting, you know, more hikes from the central banks, including our own, but once they get to that certain point, the market is betting that we will stay there for a while. Is that the base condition for fixed income to work in our favour this year?

>> With Gov. Powell, we talked about pace, and we are at the end of it.

Now is the destination.

At the Fed, the market is debating, is it one or two more hikes this year? And the Bank of Canada is working. And the question is, as you posted, is how long are we going to stay there? Really, markets are saying six months. That's it.

Within a year, we got two, 300 cuts. In Canada, and the US. Then there are seven or eight cuts priced in. So there's a lot of forward-looking. The inflation issue by and large for the markets, at least the bond market, is a dead issue. It has come and gone.

Whether it's the tips market, the real return bond market or the tips fixed income market of the swaps market, really, inflation is not an issue.

So the question of growth.

Are we going to sort of land in this Goldilocks soft landing where inflation has come down a lot, central banks stepped back, start cutting, the labour market softens up, wages respond and we have a great bond market?

so that's the debate we are having right now is that transition, will there be a steady rate hike before we pivot to any cuts and what does that mean for the bond market Outlook?

There is a lot of that frame of reference.

>> The bond market is telling us about that. We have the central banks working and doing what they are doing pretty aggressively altar last year and so the front-end of the curve perhaps feels a little bit… As we get further ahead of the curve, what is the market think about where we are heading in this economy?

>> What we have talked to her for a long time, it's flashing red, it's a leading indicator of a flashing recession.

That reinforces this.

But then you step away from some of the harder data and it's a little less clear in terms of whether we are flashing red in terms of recession. This is sort of where I think people are sure landing in terms of the Outlook at least right now is, look, it looks like a soft landing.

Maybe a recession light, but nothing to worry yourselves too much about.

And let's put aside, for a variety of reasons, the big yield curve inversion.

We will move on from that. Central banks will pick quickly to cutting.

>> I want to talk about that.

Some people are saying, the naysayers who don't believe in the narrative will say, if you get central banks cutting within six months, it's because something has gone horribly wrong in the economy.

But you it say that the pricing action in the market indicates you're going to get those couple for the end of the year to talk to be because we are in a deep recession.

It will be because the economy has mellowed out.

I think use the term Goldilocks earlier.

> That's a tough landing Teneo.

It doesn't have much economic history.

Is this a transitory Goldilocks?

That is a way of looking at it.

The degree of uncertainty is very high.

We had a lot of uncertainty as we have been coming out of the pandemic.

Incredible monetary and fiscal policy.

We sort of ripped the bandage off of financial pressure where interest rates were kept low and inflation was high and we had negative real yields.

Now when the bond market is into positive real yields, with where the market is going, it creates a certain amount of certainty about economic growth, inflation, the economic growth path around the world, the US dollar.

He sort of us, where we going?

Are we going to land on that Goldilocks? I doubt it is my personal opinion.

I'm keeping our investments very flexible and mindful of the fact that it's going to be… A lot is priced in for the good news of a lot of cuts.

Something is going to play at the way the market thinks.

But within financial information coming out of this and positive growth rates, it's going to be a very challenging market to navigate.

>> Is the market paying enough attention or perhaps individual retail investors paying enough attention to the other parts of what the central banks of been doing?

The headline is always, next rate announcement, is going to be 25, 50 what are they going to do?

Are they going to hold?

What about outside of just the overnight rate.

The pulling back of the bond by, all that kind of stuff.

Is that being factored enough?

>> That is continuing.

The broad train of liquidity, that is equity from abroad, risk bond markets. I would add to that quantitative tightening that ECB is going to step into that as well. You've got other central banks of their stepping into the withdrawal of liquidity in the market.

ECB will be going and they got about another 5 to 6 hikes priced into the market.

It's been topical over the last couple of weeks. I think most observers think the Bank of Japan will step away from its yield curve control in some fashion. In fact, the bond markets have priced in over the next year or two hikes.

So you got that broad setback of liquidity, whether it's the Fed or ECB or the Bank of Japan.

And that's going to be a headwind against the broad market.

From an asset allocation point of view, it's going to be choppy and uncertain.

And I think that that's what investors should take away.

I mean, we've had a tremendous rally in the bond market.

I don't think this really continues with the same pace.

But I still think it's very attractive.

Worst case scenario, rates go back up.

Given where yields are right now and given where you lose in terms of prices, probably her waist case scenario is 00.

But on the other side, you are either clipping a coupon between three and 5% or you've got a recession.

The economy slows down, we do get the Fed and the Bank of Canada cutting and you got that insurance by being in a long duration bond.

I think it's a reasonable place to buy bonds.

Maybe not the same returns as we've had over the last three months but it's not bad.

And I think given the withdrawal of liquidity with the Fed, the ECB or the DOJ, that's important.

>> That was Scott Colbourne, managing director at TD Asset Management.

He's managing director of active fixed income.

Let's check in all the markets. A sector struggle happening in Toronto right now. Got technology putting points on the table. Got the mining stocks. The telecom stocks taking points off the table. And it's a bit flat on the headline, the TSX Composite Index down 1 1/2 points, or just have a take. Energy is losing momentum.

The benchmark of American crude is pulling back after having made some gains earlier in the session. It you've got a name like Crescent Point at nine bucks and $0.97, just sitting flatafter being positive territory earlier.

I want to check in one of the mining names, you manner, they are at eight bucks and nine cents, they are down more than 1 1/2%. South of the border, investors have a lot to think aftera deluge of corporate earnings this week but a pretty mixed bag between stocks and got the market excited and stocks that gave the market pause and some caution.

And then you go what we were talking about with Anthony on the top of the show, they gauge of consumer strength and inflation showing that inflation appears to continue to ease heading into next week's rate announcement.

It's the big one.

We will have full coverage for you here at MoneyTalk Live.

The S&P 500 is up points, about .32%.

The NASDAQ is up 100 points to the upside, all still percent.

American Express, they're pretty bullish on their outlook and the street is rewarding the name at hundred and 74 bucks and $0.57, it is up 12%.

You want to stay tuned.

On Monday, Colin Lynch, had a global real estate investment at TD Asset Management will be taking your questions about real estate.

You can get a head start on this questions.

Just email moneytalklive@td.

com.

From me and Anthony here at the desk and everyone at MoneyTalk Live, thanks for watching this week.

We will see you next week.