Maria Solovieva

[music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing. Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here. We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing. Coming up on today's show, we are going to discuss what we just got from the Bank of Canada last week, we might her from the US Federal Reserve later this week. There's a long way on when it comes to central banks. Maria Solovieva is our economist with TD will join us with her take on at all. MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie's going to have a look at whether China's government is likely to bring in some stimulus as its economy tries to recover from those COVID lockdowns. And in today's WebBroker education segment, Jason Hnatyk will show us how you can use conditional orders on the platform. So here's how you get in touch with us. Just email moneytalklive@td. com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker. Before we get to our guest video, let's get you an update on the market. We will start here at home but with the TSX Composite Index. It's pretty much just flat at this hour. We have some things definitely working in its labour but the energy space is not one of them. Let's check out Canadian Natural Resources. Right now you have the price of American benchmark crude at 68 bucks, down a little more than 3% right now. There are concerns about the global economy and whether it will soften and lead to less demand for crude. It's only a week else in Saudi Arabia decided to cut production, giving a brief booster prices but we are now back in the situation. Steve got CN Q at 7379, down about 2%. Some things in the energy space are working, uranium plays like Denison Mines. Right now they are up 3 1/4% at a buck 66 per share. South of the border, the market is placing bets that perhaps you can escape from the Fed this time around and so right now you are building on some momentum. The S&P 500 technically is a bull market, it's up more than 20% from recent lows, your 13 points to the upside right now, about 1/3 of a percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ, Lisieux tearing against the broader market. Some strength in the space and it is outperforming the S&P 500, up 97 points or three quarters of a percent. And the cruise line business, with carnival, it seems like sentiment is favourable towards a lot of these travel plays and definitely some favourable sentiment here today. At 1489 per share, carnival is a almost 14% that is your market update. Central banks are waiting a wide range of economic indicators, trying to assess whether they are doing enough to return inflation to target or if they need to take further action. Of course, with the Bank of Canada rate hike behind us, attention now turns to this week's Fed rate decision. Joining us now with more is Maria Solovieva, economists at TD. Welcome to the show. >> Thank you for having me here. >> We are going to talk central banks. We will start with the Bank of Canada. It was a bit of a surprise. >> Definitely last week was a bit of a surprise. Not always do you have macroeconomic news from Canada making the headlines and really making other markets stop and think about what's going on. So if you remember, the Bank of Canada decided to take a kind of pause, step back, and look at whether or not the number of hikes that they had before is enough to cool the economy. And the expectations were that, yes, we are going to have a slowdown, inflation is going to turn a corner and we are going to see continuous slowing. However, that didn't transpire and as we saw, inflation was actually started to accelerate even though it was just by a small margin in April, but that's not exactly what the Bank of Canada want to see. Similarly, consumer was very strong, for the first quarter, we had 5.7% growth annualized, and we also saw a bit of a spill over into the second quarter. If you look at the retail sales for example, it was indicative of continued strength for the months of April. So those things made the Bank of Canada really think about have we done enough? And obviously, the decision to hike is indicative of the fact that they haven't. And at this point, it was their decision last week, we are expecting one more hike which is suggestive of the fact that there is too much excess in the economy and they need to continue hiking. >> That softer jobs report that we got on Friday, that wouldn't change their mind? >> They couldn't have foreseen it, of course. That was a surprise, of course. I would say it was more in the timing than in principle as well, similarly to the Bank of Canada hike. The employment report is definitely showing that there are potentially weaknesses, but we have to take it with a grain of salt because it's the first decline we have seen so far. We did see a slowdown in employment in Canada, but it was not at such a level of decline, weakness that we didn't expect. Another thing that kind of makes economists think about is seasonality factors. So we sell the decline very much concentrated in a specific age cohort of 16 to 25 years old. So if you remove this decline, this there were gains in employment for the month of May. And we have to say that those seasonal factors might be affecting the headline number. So if that's the case, we you could see some revisions. We would like to see more of a cool down in employment, a continuous cooldown, and that's probably going to happen but not withstanding some revisions in the future. All that to say that, yes, in the labour market, we are seeing a cooldown happen which is a great thing for the economy because we want to see that cooling continue. That helps also bring down wage growth or slow the wage growth. That will feed into the inflation as well and help cool inflation down the road. > Is there anything in what the Bank of Canada did last week, and the factors that they were waiting, that would wail the Fed? As it heads into a two day meeting tomorrow, comes on Wednesday, it has its way decision. Is the American economy dealing with the same factors? I met in the Fed is asking itself the same question. Have we done enough up to this point? Can we ease up or do we keep going? >> I think it's if you look at prior to last week, it was very much confirming to the point that they want to pause this time around and we are of the same opinion that they will actually pause. If you look at the market, there are pricing also a pause at this point. the Fed had stronger inflationary factors playing out. There were reasons for that. Employment is much stronger as well in the US. So there were reasons to keep on going. at this point, I think they want to take a step back and reassess what's happening with the economy, especially because we sawa mini banking crisis as well. Some factors suggesting that there is potentially a credit crunch. So for them, it makes more sense, but there will be the CPI report tomorrow. >> They might have a bit of an advantage over Tiff Macklem. He probably wanted to walk into that meeting with an inflation report put in, and they will tomorrow. >> Tomorrow will be a very decisive moment for them as well. I'm pretty sure that inflationary numbers will have a strong bearing on the decision as well. So yes, we think that they are ready to pause, but if there is very strong indication that the inflation is accelerating, they may reconfigure the decision as well for and hike one more time. > What is the read on that inflationary report? We don't know exactly what is going to say, but economists in the street have a feel where it's headed. What kind of report do you think we might get tomorrow? >> We are thinking that it will show growth, especially in the core number month over month. There will still be indications of strength in inflation year on year. But what we are hoping for is to see some of these factors to cool off already, right? So see some indication that inflation is on a path of slowdown without acceleration. Obviously, we are not expecting a dramatic cool down in inflation over one month, but it would be nice to see some of those core inflation factors, to see a significant slowdown. > Interesting stuff and a great start to the program. We are going to get to your questions about the economy for Maria Solovieva in just a moment time. A reminder that you get in touch with us at any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker. Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading. Glencore is offering to buy the steelmaking coal business of tech resources. While the bid price has not beenpublicly disclose, Glencore says it's offering cash for the coal assets. Teck rejected an earlier offer from Glencore for the entire business, and it says it's reviewing this latest bid. Got Biogen's treatment for Alzheimer's clearing a key hurdle with the US food and drug ministration. The drug has received unanimous backing of the FDA advisory panel. Traditional approval of the Biogen Alzheimer's drug is expected in early June. Let's check in on NASDAQ Inc. There are under pressure today following is that the company is buying financial software maker Adenza in a cash and stock deal valued at $10.5 billion US. It is the largest deal in the history of the exchange operator. A quick check in on the markets, starting here at home on Bay Street. We are feeling the weight from the energy sector in the pullback of American benchmark crude. Other forces to the upside including some tech names. Right now you've got a very modest gain of six points on the TSX Composite Index, just above the breakeven line. South of the border, there is an S&P 500 building on the gains of last week and those gains put it just into bull market territory. That's technically speaking again of 20% from recent lows. Europe 14 1/2 points today, another third of a percent. We are back now with Maria Solovieva. Taking questions about the economy, plenty coming in. This one about currency. Do you see the Canadian dollar strengthening against the US dollar in the next little while? >> That's a very good question. We see some of the fundamental factors playing a role now again, things like interest-rate differentials. Of course with the Bank of Canada hiking, that interest rate differential between the Fed and the Bank of Canada narrowed and that helped boost it as well. Let's look back at what happened over the last six months or so. We actually didn't see that much of the fundamental factors playing out. You had, first of all, the price of oil didn't really reflect in the Canadian dollar as much as it usually happens just because the US was actually exporting a large volume of oil as well. So that just didn't play a big role in the trading of foreign currency and foreign exchange. Right now, interest rate differential, same thing. We have the Bank of Canada pausing, the Fed was still hiking, so you kind of saw that playing against the Canadian dollar. At this point, we see this boost but this is probably going to continue on for a little bit, but down the road, in the long term, the difference between growth in Canada and growth in the US will play a major role and expectations also of recession may potentially have a little bit of a factor into the US dollar, right? Because we usually see it flight to safety in those cases. So that could help boost the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. But primarily, fundamentally, we think that stronger growth in the US will support the US dollar weighing on the Canadian dollar. >> When you talk about a recession, I guess the traditional thinking is if the United States falls into a recession, it's been hard for us not to. They are our largest trading partner. We feel those effects. Good player differently this time around? I mean, people talk about soft landing, no landing, people just keep rocking on. Hard landing? What do you think? >> We do not see this scary type of recession. We are kind of skirting between going into a recession orhaving a soft landing and prolonged soft growth. The major reason for that is that we are seeing very strong labour market and technically in both countries, right? There is still tremendous growth so far. Some cooling but not as much as you would like to see. So the recession is prologue, usually a prolonged a slowdown in economic growth and decline and economic growth that affects multiple sectors of the economy. What we are likely to see right now is something that is driven by may be a slowdown in the business investment. Yes, the consumer consumption is going to decelerate but probably not to the same extent. So we will see this type of a slowdown being probably a little bit different from what you normally expect from a recession. >> Okay, let's go to another question from an audience member. Someone wants to know what your outlook for the Canadian realist a market this year after this latest rate hike? We were on pause for a while and the Bank of Canada surprised the market with higher borrowing costs. What does it mean for real estate? >> It's a very good question. We'll see how this dynamic will play out in the next little while. What is notable currently is that the housing market has actually turned the corner already, so we sought bottom out and we are now seeing an increase in sales and listings as well. But the housing market is very much in the seller's territory right now. Definitely people come back to start buying houses again, so interest rates played a role, obviously. You did have a bit of a cooling in the interest rate, mortgage rate environment, so people came back into the market, but there aren't that many listings so you actually still havelack of supply. The good thing as well as that bit of this kind of getting to the point where you see some normalization brings the construction back, so we have that starting to pick up as well. Andsome potential sellers may decide to come off the sidelines and list their houses on the market because prices are kind of stabilizing. So we may see those play out but the hike is definitely kind of a unknown how this is going to affect demand for housing. We have strong population growth, we do have this desire to purchase, the market is picking up again. So we don't think that it's going to be much of a cooling effect from now on just because we already have seen a lot of the slowdown transpire in the Canadian economy at this point. >> You mentioned population growth. When we talk about the state of the Canadian economy or housing market, it comes back to the fact that we have robust immigration. Last year we had a million new Canadians for the first time ever. The target isn't that high but it is still high. It is this one of the fundamental underpinnings of Canadian real estate and economy, that we are bringing in more people? >> It is one factor but we should not forget that supply plays a very, very important role because we need more housing in order to support this population growth. That isn't to say that we need to stop, have like different targets but it's better to have more affordable housing and increase, try to increase the supply. >> Obviously, housing a very hot topic for Canadians for a long time now. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. we are going to get back your questions for Maria Solovieva in just a moment's time on the economy. And a reminder that you can get in touch with us any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com. Notes guitar educational segment of the day. When using WebBroker, there are different order types available to you. Here's walk us through how conditional orders work is Jason Hnatyk, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing. Great to see you. Let's kick off the week. Let's talk about why an investor would consider using a conditional order. >> Thanks for having me. It's always great to be here. Conditional orders, they can be a very useful tool in an investor's toolkit. I like to think of them, they allow me to work smarter, not harder. It's a really creative way to even automate some of the processes in our kind of trading that we may take place. So let's jump into the platform so we can see some of those tools that are available to us. So I have our strategies tab that's up on the screen right now. These are the four types of conditional orders that are available through the WebBroker platform. Today we are going to be focusing on a one triggers another order, over here on the left-hand side. This is where you are placed saying it to orders at the same time but only one will be active and once that order feels it will trigger a secondary order to become active. This diagram, as simple as it may be, spells out exactly what this is hoping to accomplish. I'm going to walk us through a common use of an OTA order. The blue line that I've got a my chart is going to signify my first order of the OTA. This will be my by order. It will get me into this particular position. I'm going to draw secondary line here so I am buying into this investment, hoping that it's gonna go up. Maybe I will be away from my computer, and shopping, enjoying a beautiful summer day, golfing, I don't want to leave my trade unattended so I got the opportunity to set a profit target so that my order is not without protection, if the stock is up in the way that I'm expecting it to, once and only when my first order executes, I now have my profit taking limit order waiting to capture my gains because I made the right call and I'll be able to then have my prophets waiting for me when I returned back to my computer. >> Back to your computer from the golf course. We will discuss golf later. Now that we understand the order, how would an investor enter one on the WebBroker platform? >> Yeah, we need to know how we can put this practically into place here. Let's jump back into the platform, show you how easy it can be accomplished. I will bring you back to our by Celtic it by choosing the arrows here at the top of the screen. Now to get into the strategies tab that we saw earlier, you will notice that the tabs are just located above the order taker. We are going to choose strategies and we are picking on the condition that we want to have executed for our purposes here. So in the OTA, you are going to have two separate orders that you are going to need to put into the system. Don't be overwhelmed. It's really no different than entering one at a time. There are just too on the screen here that are going to be executing in the sequence that we are hoping for. So our symbol, we will just keep going with SPY here which we had on our chart previously. let's say we are going to go ahead and buy 100 shares at this particular fund at a limit price of $430. One key thing that traders are going to need to keep in mind is that your time in force, good till instructions will need to be the same for both order portions of your ticket. I'm going to choose good till cancel for this particular purpose. Now I'm going to pop into the second half of our screen. This is where we are going to enter our condition where once and only when our first order is executed, the second order will then be fired off to the market, ready to go. So in this particular case, we are going to go ahead and use the same symbol we had for our first leg of the order. But this time, we are going to choose the cell, so we can then sell the 100 shares that we already purchased and capture our potential for profit. You're going to hope for a nice surprise and captured $20 worth of gain aand we need to make sure that we are choosing identical good till and that is all about sending it through and hoping you chose in the right direction for your tray. > Great stuff as always, Jason. Thanks for that. >> My pleasure. >> Jason Hnatyk, Senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing. And make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and upcoming webinars. Now before we get back to questions about the economy for a Maria Solovieva, a quick reminder of how you intend to this. Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. Okay, we are back with Maria Solovieva, taking your questions about the economy, lots of questions coming in for your first show. Here's one. Is the unemployment cycle disconnected from the interest rate cycle? Why is the labour market so strong despite these high rates? >> We saw during the COVID recession and then as we were coming out of it, we saw a very different labour market altogether. There was a change in the way supply and demand was picking up. And at this point, it's not necessarily disconnected but it's the nature of how the labour market really, fundamentally changed during this period. So the differences between supply and demand, we can see that much more demand currently versus the number of people who are coming in the labour force, and that's because a lot of people decided to retire, may be stepped away from the labour market for a period of time. And here it is important to remember the differences between Canada and the US even though we see tightness in both markets. In Canada, this tightness has started to loosen up already and that's because Canadian employees were a little bit more connected to their employers. So even temporary layoffs were, a lot of employers were able to reengage their employees, whereas in the US, there was a bigger separation factor and they actually have difficulties, much more difficulties currently in the labour market, so that tightness persists. So that change in the dynamics of employment is definitely more specific to this particular recovery, and as we go further into this cycle, we are going to see a bit of that tightness, and definitely bring more people into the labour market and the expectation is that the demand for the labour is also going to cool off. So interest rates are working, is just a matter of how quickly things, dynamics change during the cycle, how we had a dramatic decline in and then a very big spike in demand for labour altogether. That's why it's still affecting the labour market. >> I will take some time. Sometimes you forget about the size of the dislocation during the pandemic, just the sheer scale. Arm of the first jobs report was like we lost millions of job in one report. My God! >> You see that also in the unemployment rate. That was unprecedented increase in the on employment rate. Definitely, those things cannot go unnoticed in the recovery as well. >> I was doing the TV show by talking into a telephone for a number of months. Next question. What is your guess anticipate the BOC said to lower interest rates to soften the landing? That's from Jeff, he says thanks in advance. > Absolutely. If you look back, definitely a lot of people were expecting that the Bank of Canada would be cutting rate. >> I remember that the market was saying the reversal would begin in the summer. >> A lot of market participants were expecting that this tremendous hike in interest rates will affect the market much sooner. At this point, we see excess demand still playing out in both countries and that means that interest rates will be higher for much longer than expected then several weeks ago. Our expectations are that the Bank of Canada will hike one more time, the Fed will stay put and both central banks will start cutting not sooner than the first quarter of 2024. >> What do they need to see for that cut? >> Definitely inflation… I would even say necessarily going back, obviously, to 2% target which is a bit, is going to be definitely a process, it's not going to transpire right away, but they would like to see the trend, making sure inflation is stepping down consistently. That's one of the reasons, we talked about it already, the Bank of Canada wasn't happy with April's inflation report, there was a bit of acceleration there. Hence we have a hike. > The top of the show, we were talking about a number of factors that would of course the Bank of Canada's hand to take the move that it did, to hike rates. The resilience of the consumer. We actually have someone wondering, what's happening there? What's the health of the consumer? Our spending levels beginning to crack under the pressure of higher interest rates? This is a head scratcher. You raise cost of borrowing tremendously, people are supposed to shun away from big purchases. What's going on? >> That is how interest rates should play. The higher the rate, the more costly it is to borrow and continued to consume. If we take a Birdseye view of the consumer in Canada and the US, we have still is excess savings. So consumers were able to save during the pandemic, partially because of fiscal support, partially because they were not spending as much. So the accumulated a large bag of savings and now we are seeing that starting to be spent. In the US, we actually have two thirds, approximately two thirds of excess savings already spent and they are sitting at around 700 billion in excess savings. In Canada, we have not seen a decline yet. We are seeing Canadians accumulating excess deposits. We measure this. They are still actually above what the trend would have been without the pandemic, we would've seen without the pandemic. So those are helping Canadians and Americans support that consumption. But there are some cracks as well. one way to see it is through delinquency rates. We are starting to see delinquency rates picking up in both countries. And primarily in auto loans and credit cards. They are actually back to their pre-pandemic levels and a little bit above those levels for credit cards. So that tells you that it's not all rosy for all consumers. We do have pockets of weakness and some of the consumers are already seeing that pain. For Canadian consumers, there will be more pain going in because of the way our mortgage market is structured. >> We carry quite a bit of debt in this country. >> Absolutely. Interest rates will play in a very slow manner. It is not going to be all of a sudden consumers stop spending. You will see increases in payments throughout several years and the more you see that, the less Canadians will be able to allocate toward spending and will have to support their interest rate payments and principal payments on mortgages and consumer debt altogether. >> We have another question here about inflation, the cost of living. The US is putting out there inflation number in the morning and interest rates on Wednesday. A bit of a double whammy there. Do you think all of this is already built into the market? >> The market is definitely in wait-and-see mode now in terms of the inflation report. So inflation, the consensus is that it's going to increase, it's probably a slowdown but not a tremendous slowdown in inflation growth. And that number will definitely have a strong bearing on the Fed's decision as well. At this point, the Fed very strongly indicated that they are ready to pause and reassess the economy, but I think if there is a surprise, I would say, sizable surprise in inflation, then they may decide to hike one more time. especially after the Bank of Canada and the Bank in Australia increased their monetary policy rates made the market step back and wait and see the report before making the decision about hike or no hike. At this point, markets are pricing inabout 25% probability that they will hike tomorrow, on Wednesday, and about 50% probability that the hike will come in July. So pause tomorrow and hike in July. >> I gotta imagine everyone around the table heading into that meeting is going to have a copy of the inflation report. Who knows what happens behind closed doors. We are going to get back to your questions on the economy and rates for Maria Solovieva just moments time. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. and a reminder that you can get in touch with us at any time. Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td. com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just write in your question and hit send. We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. China's economy started the year on strong footing but has slowed noticeably in the second quarter. Our Anthony Okolie is taking a look at a new TD Securities report on what's happening and whether this could mean some stimulus might be in the cards the country on this bumpy recovery row. Anthony. >> Thanks very much, Greg. Over recent weeks, we have seen some softer data on the Chinese economy again after a strong Q1 the COVID opening bounce back. I brought a chart that shows construction and investment weakness continues to persist in China. As you can see, particularly in the construction sector, buildings constructed and sold have pulled back since peaking in July 2021. In addition to that, investments in real estate have also shown a downward trend year-over-year. Now China is also facing rapidly worsening exports, a high youth jobless rate as well as weak domestic demand. The government of course has set a modest GDP growth target after missing the 2022 goal. There has been growing speculation of a major round of stimulus by the Chinese government. However, TD Securities is sceptical about the willingness of the Chinese government to proceed with major stimulus given the high degree of leverage in their economy. China doesn't have an external debt problem, they have a local government debt problem with debt to GDP of around 280%. That has grown sharply, especially in nonfinancial corporate debt according to TD Securities. Local governments are also facing holes in their balance sheets due to costs incurred dealing with the COVID lockdowns. And while tax revenue is picking up, land sales are not due to ongoing developer caution amid a stalled real estate recovery. So it's highly unlikely, according to TD Securities, that the central government is willing to bail out these local governments and president Xi has been consistent and wanting to avoid raising leverage. Recently at a government meeting, they focus on proposals extending tax breaks for electric vehicles butthere haven't been any large-scale physical stability in the pipeline. Hope will rest on the resilience of consumer spending in the country. Even here, TD Securities is very cautious. They say that China, unlike many other countries like Canada and the United Stateswhich you mentioned didn't give fiscal handouts during COVID. Most of the savings came from withdrawing money out of real estate as well as financial investment so it's unlikely much of this money finds its way back into increased consumer spending. But TD Securities says that there are glimmers of hope, particularly when it comes the unemployment rate. We have seen a drop in the an appointment rate which will hopefully implies stronger household income and consumption. >>there was a lot coming into the new year with the China reopening. But if a stimulus isn't in the cards, is there rate cuts or infrastructure spending? >> I think that rate cuts have certainly come up as one potential for the government to assimilate the economy. It sold like lead the China central government will pause rates because banks are likely to continue to feel squeezed by ongoing real estate pressures and ongoing… That would hurt their ongoing interest rate margin. That's the difference between what they pay on deposits and earn on loans. there could be a cut in prime rates later in the year. TD Securities does he a case for infrastructure spending, however, if economic momentum continues to weaken further. However, on its own, TD Securities contends that infrastructure alone will not drive growth much higher. Things like weakness and trade, real estate recovery and reduce desire for monetary stimulus, that suggests that the economy will likely struggle in the months ahead. Greg? >> Interesting stuff. Thanks, Anthony. Not my pleasure. >> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie. At no time for an update on the markets. We are going to take a look at TD's Advanced Dashboard, platform designed for active traders available through TD Direct Investing. we are looking at the heat map function here, gives you a good picture of the market movers in the TSX 60. We are screening by price and volume. not a surprise that dominating the screen right now would be the energy place. We are seeing a substantial pullback in the price of West Texas intermediate and American benchmark crew, which is weighing on some of the energy names. The more real estate that a name occupies on the board means the more volume being traded. CN Q, Canadian Natural Resources, it is down to the tune of 2 1/3%. Cenovus is down almost 3%. You can see a lot of the energy plays under some pressure as well. But within that group, there is some green on the screen. That would be CCO, Cameco. A uranium play. That has been interesting in recent days and weeks considering shifting views on nuclear and what it could mean for the energy transition. Using a bit of a bid into this one today. Shopify has been gaining steam throughout the session. We are seeing the tech stocks perform get a bit south of the border so now you're at home we've got Shopify up more than 6 1/2%. Saputo, you of the lower part of the screen, it is down about 3% right now. They came out with their earnings last week. It wasn't so much the quarter behind them but some of the guidance they gave to the street that forced some selling in the name seems to be continuing today. Got Saputo down to the tune of almost 3%. You can find more information on TD Advanced Dashboard by visiting TD.com/Advanced Dashboard. We are back now with Maria Solovieva. Lots of questions coming in for you and your first show. Regional banks. Are they still a headwind for the economy? We touched on this briefly, what do you think? >> It's not such big news. we do see is some reversal in the market indicators, the growth in some of the stocks and things like that. But that's all to say… If you look at lending by smaller banks that are less than 100 billion in assets, they have a slowdown and a decline in business lending, primarily in commercial industrial lending since the beginning of March. So that's telling you that they definitely pulled back. Not so much in consumer lending but business, of course, is something that they were worried about more, tightening their standards as well. And similarly, we've seen a slowdown on the commercial real estate lending which is smaller banks and much bigger players in the market. So that tells you that smaller businesses that rely on those regional banks will also see the pain. At the same time, we know that from the Senior loan Ofc. survey, what those banks were concerned about more was liquidity issues. And so that remains a factor for them. And we also see that those banks are still borrowing from the feds lending facility that was created so borrowing is still elevated at this point and I think that plays an important role in the fed decision as well to pause potentially this weekend let it kind of transpire and see how this is working through the economy. >> A pleasure having you here. I hope you'll join us again. >> Thank you for having me. >> Maria Solovieva, economist with TD. As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. stay tuned for tomorrow show, James Dixon, Dir. of family office solutions with TD Securities will be our guest, taking your questions about market strategy. A reminder that you can get a head start with your questions, just email moneytalklive@td.com.that's all the time we have the show today. Thanks for watching. See you tomorrow. [music]