Greg Barnes

[music] >> hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live,brought to you by TD Direct Investing. Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here. We are going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer questions about investing. Coming up on today show, will discuss the outlook for the mining sector with Greg Barnes from TD Securities. Anthony Okolie is going to have a preview of what to expect from this week's Canadian Jobs Report. And in today's WebBroker education segment, Nugwa Haruna is going to show us how you can find information about the TSX venture exchange on the platform. Here's how you get in touch with us. Email moneytalklive@td.com or fellows that your response box under the video player on WebBroker. Before he gets our guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets. The first trading day of the week. Of course, investors still digesting that jobs report from last Friday. Much stronger number than expected. Questions being raised about the future path of rates from the US Federal Reserve. You are seeing a stronger US back today. You are saying bond yields on the rise. A bit of downward pressure on the riskier parts, or the risk assets, such as the equity markets. Here at home on Bay Street, the TSX Composite Index is down 114 points, about half a percent during the lunch hour trade. Let's take a look at Suncor Energy. Nothing too dramatic on the big energy names, just a bit of downward pressure. At 4393, they are down just about half a percent at Suncor. Some parts of the market are moving higher. Lightspeed had a pretty rough week last week in the wake of its earnings report. Bit of a bounce back today but still down substantially from where it was at 2326 right now, you're up almost 4 1/2, more than 4 1/2%. South of the border, not only do you have a rising bond yields and rising questions about the strong US jobs report, you've got a chair Jerome Powell on deck to deliver a speech I believe it's tomorrow. His first comments after that jobs report. We will be parsing through everything to try to figure out what he might be thinking about the future path of rates. They don't give much up in the speeches, but it's important when we hear from PayPal. It down 27 points, more than half a percent on the S&P 500. The tech heavy NASDAQ, we had some mega-cap tech names report last week. It is down 61 points today, about half a percent. Exxon's south of the border, let's check in on one of the big energy names on Wall Street. They were week earlier in the session. Still we curb coming off the lows at hundred and 11 bucks and change, down only about half a percent. That's your market update. Concerns about slowing growth and demand are raising questions about the future path of many parts of the market, including the mining space. Amid that backdrop, TD Securities just wrapped up their latest mining conference and joining us now is some of the big takeaways is Greg Barnes, managing director at TD Securities. Great to have you on the show today. >> Thanks. >> Let's run down this conference. You had a note on it, pretty comprehensive one. Let's move through some of the themes. The first one was copper. And a bullish case for copper. >> I think the tone of the conference is pretty bullish overall, particularly on copper. We are watching Chinese reopening. Various pieces of her unrest across South America. People are concerned about supplyon the copper side, primary mine supply, and inventories remain very low. When we look forward a couple of years, after the first wave of copper supply we are seeing right now enters the market from mines beginning production now, there isn't much beyond that. There is concern about how we are going to be in a list demand for copper for electric vehicles and decarbonisation of the grade when we are not producing enough copper. I think the expectation is that copper prices continue to move higher. It not in a straight line, there will be volatility. Like we have seen. Generally, the trend looks like it's going to be a. > It's a fascinating space when you think about copper because he talks about the demand of electric vehicles. Electricity, copper is pretty key to all of this. We know that this is a long-standing story. This whole EV story didn't just show up overnight. Yet, we are worried about mines producing enough in the future. Why is the will not there to mine more copper if we truly believe in the transition? >> It's about incentive pricing. You need to justify moving that mine. And where the new mines are going to be. They are increasingly in more difficult spots. You need a higher price for companies to be willing to take the risk for investments into these mines, they require capitalist miniature of up to $8 billion. To justify return, you are looking for 15% return after tax rate you can't justify that investments. You need probably need for 50 copper. That's a big adjustment the industry is getting used to as we speak right now. >> That's the copper story. What's been interesting in the past several weeks is gold as well. I guess this dance with the US buck. The gold itself, what is happening there? So investors were getting interested again. >> We've got a more constructive tone on gold. I wouldn't say it's bullish but people are feeling more comfortable. With the Fed pivot coming, we're not quite there yet, but interest rates were up only a quarter-point last time, some point in a year or so, they will start cutting rates. That translates into a weaker US dollar, and that is bullish for gold. The question is, do rates a however longer in inflation comes down and you get real rates rising? That's not necessarily good for gold. On our analysis, if you look at Fed rate cuts over history, gold does tend to outperform. During a rate cutting., Gold tends to rise by about 30 to 40%. When they are raising rates, gold only goes up by 6%. The risk reward is actually pretty good. >> We talk about a more constructive tone in the market toward gold for those reasons but we also havea big deal on her hands today. Nearly $17 billion bid from new Christ. What is that activity tell you about how the market is feeling? >> I think what investors have been looking for for a long time as further consolidation. There are quite a number of gold companies out there especially in the mid-cap space. We have been watching consolidation happening and there will be more as we are seeing today. I think part of this is just getting bigger and gold mining companies aren't that big on a relative scale versus other sectors in the market, and to try and get big and that investor attention, they need to be bigger. There have only been conditional bid so far for new crest. >> Let's talk about inflation. so many parts of society and the market have felt these pressures. What about the mining space? >> It's been tough over the last year. We have seen operating costs go up 12 to 15% year-over-year. Capital costs have gone up, 20 to 30% in some cases. This feeds into higher energy prices, higher steel prices, labour costs have started going up. these costs have started to moderate except perhaps labour. We don't expect the same year-over-year cost increases in 2023. 0 to 5% is what companies are guiding towards. Our energy price is partially set off by higher labour costs. Less cost inflation in 2023 but still not great. Definitely met the minors, depending on what they are mining, for example gold, it's this much in to get this much out. If an ounce of gold sells for more on the market, you're in a good position. Are the mining companies still in a good position relative? >> Gold prices are 18, $1900 per ounce. For mining, it's roughly around 1200. There is still a good margin at these prices. It is still generating free cash flow. It is still a good set up for the gold space and these prices with costs even where the costs have been the last couple of years. > Another interesting part of the market that was outlined in your note about the conference is uranium. It seems like there is a different kind of tone or a nuclear these days. > Absolutely, and I thinkpeople are looking at how to reduce carbon emissions. effectively, nuclear generating capacity is zero carbon emissions. We recognize, global governments are recognizing, one, you cannot support a countrywide grade on solar or wind because it's not stable enough. You always need that baseload power which nuclear gives you. And then I think it's and brought him particularly in Europe about the security of supplier, for example relying onRussian gas, so I think nuclear is going to play a larger role in both cases, lower carbon emissions and security supply. >> We have a pretty rich vein of the stuff here. >> We are well-positioned. We have the world's biggest, one of the world's biggest uranium producers, chemical. They got high-grade minds, long life minds, in northern Saskatchewan. Low costs, 20% of the market, generally is what Canada can produce. It's a powerful position. Given the fact that we are in Canada, low clinical risk. The security supply argument works in favour of that as well. We are extremely well positioned on uranium. >> We've got bullish and some spaces, constructive and some spaces depending on what we are talking about of the mining space. What is the biggest risk to the sector in the short or medium term? >> Really, Chinese reopening or global growth as a whole. I think a soft landing is increasingly being talked about. If that is the case, it will bode well for demand globally. The Chinese reopening has really gotten metal prices off to a strong start so far in 2023. If that accelerates, that will continue to be very supportive for metal prices. But if it fades, and it's not the big bounce that we'll expect, that would weigh on metal prices. >> Fascinating stuff and a great start to the show. You will get your questions about mining stocks for Greg Barnes in just a moment's time, including his view on First Quantum, ways to play the nuclear trend and Teck resources. A reminder that you can get in touch with us any time. Just email moneytalklive@td.com or fillet the viewer response box under the video player on WebBroker. Right now, I want to get you updated on some of the top stories in the world of business and take a look at how it the markets are trading. There are more layoffs being announced today in the tech sector. Dell announcedit plans to cut roughly 5% of its workforce, more than 6600 workers. This in the face of slowing demand for personal computers and laptops. In a memo to employees, CEO Jeff Clarke says the company is trying to stay ahead of downturn impacts. shares of Tyson Foods in the spotlight today. That is after the food processing giant disappointed the street with the latest quarterly earnings. we have seen falling demand for pork products and the declining price of beef compared to last year, and those items are pressuring the bottom line. You see shares down to of almost 5% at this hour. Another big week for corporate earnings ahead. Investors are concerned about an economic slowdown. It shows up in those earnings. Wall Street will be watching reports from Disney and PepsiCo for consumer trends. Here at home, we have Cineplex and some life among the names scheduled to report this week. A quick check in on the markets, start here at home on Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index. Bit of a down start to the week, nothing too dramatic, 117 points deficit, down a little bit more than half a percent. South of the border, you had that strong jobs report on Friday, you got some bond yields moving higher, got the US button moving higher, downward pressure on equities. The S&P 500 down 25 points, a little bit more than half a percent. We are back now with Greg Barnes, take your questions about mining stocks selects get to them. Viewer want to know ahead of time, they sent in this question, if Greg does not address First Quantum in his overview, could you he give us his views on whether it is desirable to concede to hold the stock or are defensive measures required? On the show, we can't give recommendations or investing advice but we can talk about what's happening in First Quantum. >> This is all about the mine in Panama which is their biggest asset. They are attempting to renegotiate the physical and stability agreement with the government. It's taking a long time and is becoming increasingly difficult. The government is making some pretty impressive moves. Over the weekend, they announced that they want to recalibrate the way scalesat the airport in Panama, which they used to load the ships. That's not a normal condition, and it has forced First Quantum to stop loading ships. Effectively, they are not able to ship the product right now. I understand back a couple of months ago, a month or so, in January, the government started to make some negative noises about the legality of their concessions in Panama. They have really ramped up the rhetoric, the government has. And that is making life quite difficult for First Quantum in the country. I do believe they will end up with an agreement around the stability agreement at some point. But it is dragging on for a long time. It's causing a lot of uncertainty. >> Is what's toughest with some of these mining names? No we are talking about political uncertainty. It would seem that the government of Panama is trying to play some tough negotiating hand but in the end, is it as hard as an investor or analyst to try to peg where we end up on it? >> Yes. Yeah, there's a lot going on behind the scenes that we are just not privy to. Yeah, the government is playing hardball but recognizes it's one of the big players in the country, it's 3 1/2% of GDP, they employ a lot of people. Quantum is the best operator of that asset. At the end of the day, I do believe they will come to an agreement but it sounds like they're going to have to be concessions made on both sides to get this done. >> Some contact for people who don't know a lot about First Quantum, how important is this particular mine in Panama? >> More than half of their production. the only really just finished investing in it. They are still investing in the expansion right now. Something like $10 billioninto Panama in total to get this mine up and running. It's a massive investment, 50%. It is a flagship asset for the company. >> Interesting stuff. Another question now. Can your guests give us some potential ways to play the nuclear sector? If the town has shifted, what should people be investigating? >> We just talked a little bit about Cameco. One of the world's largest uranium producers. 50% interest from Westinghouse, a nuclear services company. They will become, when the acquisition closes, later this year, they will become a fully diversified uranium nuclear supplier across the fuel supply chain. Select gives you broad exposure across uranium and nuclear generation itself. A good way to play the nuclear theme. Plus in Canada, we have a couple of development projects that are looking very good. I think the highest-quality one is probably next Gen in Saskatchewan. Closely behind them is Denison Mines. In Saskatchewan as well. So three ways to play uranium. Obviously, Cameco ishas the greatest exposure across the supply chain and the two others are developing new uranium mines that we will need. >> When it comes the global uranium players, are there any actions they can takethat could threaten the thesis of the Canadian domestic? We talked about how we have a good political environment and different from other parts of the world but are there other global forces that could sort of shake of our industry a little? >> Kazakhstan is the largest producer of uranium globally. They have about 40% of global production. They have a state owned company. It is listed in London. They are slowly ramping production back up after cutting it for three or four years now to manage supply to the market. If they decide to turn all of their supply on at the same time, which they probably couldn't do, that would be disruptive to the market. But I don't see that happening. >> I know you're in the mining space but sometimes people talk about picks and shovels. In terms of the gold rush. You want to be the person out there looking for the gold, do you want to be selling to the prospector? Are there different ways to play the nuclear? I know that's earlier space, but you people look outside of traditional uranium if they are interested? >> There really aren't ways to play that that are publicly listed. You are kind of stuck with Cameco and some of these development companies that we just talked about. There are limited ways to get exposure to other areas of the fuel supply chain. >> I learned something thereto. Listing a question about the US back. This has been an interesting one, trying to figure out where it might be going. US dollar strength has been headwind for commodities. Will the end of rate hikes have an impact? >>the US dollar has already weakened year to date and prices have lived off. It's not just the US dollar but the Chinese opening as well. But the weaker US dollar is clearly bullish for commodity prices. If this trend continues and we think it could when the Fed does pivot to easing, that is broadly bullish for all commodities, copper, oil, what have you. >> Is not the kind of thing to when you're doing that kind of analysis you have to have a longer term view? Day-to-day, someone could say… These are all volatile actions from the day-to-day. You have to look longer term? >> Yeah, I think you have to have not a one day view… Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. Not the dollar, not commodities. We look at the general trend and we think it's going to go and that will give a general idea of how you should be thinking about it. >> Sometimes to hear about a strong US book 2, that would be a problem for the tech companies. They say, we make this much money and revenue overseas, we repatriated, is a bit of a tough time. To the miners have much of that? >> Less so. All of their revenues and costs are generally in US dollars, but the bulk of them at least. So they are impacted by the US dollar. Tech resources are a bit of an outlier for that, they were bought in Canadian dollars, so they do get impacted by that. I think a stronger US dollar makes US commodities more expensive so it affects demand negatively. That's what we saw last year. >> Is always at home, make sure you do your own research before making investment decisions. We will get back to your question for Greg Barnes on mining stocks in a moment. You can get in touch with us anytime. Just email moneytalklive@td.com. Now, let's get to our educational segment of the day. We are talking about mining stocks on the show today. Some names in the space trading on the TSX venture exchange as opposed to the main TSX.joining us now to slaying the difference in how you can find more information about it on WebBroker is Nugwa Haruna, Senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing. Always a pleasure to have you here. Walk us through it. >> So now, as investors know, the stock exchanges where investors have access to shares of publicly traded companies. The main differences between the TSX and the TSX venture exchange is that the TSX actually has morewell-established companies were as investors will find that with the TSX venture exchange, these tend to have companies in the early stage of growth and so investors who are looking to explore that may take a look at companies that trade on this exchange. I will mention that some of the potential benefits for investing in companies that trade on the TSX venture exchange, these are much smaller companies. So small-cap companies may experience a significant increase, they may have more growth opportunities and investors may have access to things like stocks and the mining space, in the tech space, and energy. But then, those also come with the risks. When you are dealing with small-cap companies, investors are potentially dealing with a higher volatility. They may be dealing with less liquidity. And they may also have a lower margin of safety than if they invested in larger Companies. Laptop and to WebBroker and we can take a brief overview on that comparison. In WebBroker, I'm going to click on research. Under markets, I will click on indices. Once you come on this page, it gives you a comparison of different indices. If I want to take a look at some market statistics for today, I can see information for the TSX comp', which is me an idea of how many companies have seen an increase in their value today, how many have declined as well as how many are unchanged. I can toggle over to the TSX venture exchange to take a look at that same information. I'm going to scroll down so we can look at some of the same information for company movers today. For instance, looking at the TSX Composite Index, which represents the largest 250 companies that trade on the TSX, if I click on this drop-down, I'm going to pull up most active. So once I do that, I can see that Enbridge, today, is the most active security so far. It sold over 2 million stocks. I'm going to toggle over to the TSX venture exchange. Once you do that, you will see that we have critical elements lithium core and that has sold less than half of what Enbridge has done today. So just some additional information as well as comparisons that investors can do no broker. >> Important groundwork laid there. Some caveats too. What if they want to find out using WebBroker which companies are actually trading on the venture exchange? How do you do that? >> Right, so they are able to pull up that list. When it comes to the TSX venture exchange, we are looking at an index in the index we are using actually tracked about the largest 500 companies that trade on the TSX venture exchange. Let's hop back into WebBroker and we can pull up those lists of companies. So we are still on the same page we were on, but now we are going to focus on the left side of the screen. I'm going to click here where it says TSX venture. So once I do that, a little box pops up and I will click on members. So now, I'm going to be presented with those companies that are listed on the TSX venture exchange index. Now this gives me once again some additional information. I can filter this table by volume. I can filter it by market Which I'm going to do over here. And once I do that, I will see the largest company on this exchange is worth $6.2 billion as opposed to the TSX itself, which is worth almost $200 billion. Some additional information that investors can see, I'm going to toggle over to performance. Now, we talked about volatility is one of the main considerations for investors who are considering using, purchasing stocks that trade on the TSX venture exchange. I'm going to filter this by performance on a one-year basis. So once I do that, investors would see that it's a little riskier because you are looking at a company that if you invested a year ago, you are down over 80%. On the plus side, if I filter by highs or lows, you're up significantly. Investors can also compare the performance of the different indices. I'm going to toggle over to Charts here. And once I do that, I am going to have a chart in terms of the companies that are trading on this index. But what I want to do is compare the performance as opposed to the TSX comp'. So going to click on that. You're going to see in the last three years, you will notice that the TSX venture exchange, which is are presented by our candlesticks here, you will see that where there is a debt, they tend to dip a little more than the companies that trade on the TSX itself. You will also notice that when there is a rise, they tend to rise a little more. So that idea of volatility. Finally, I want to show us more of a long-term chart here. I'm going to click here and toggle over to a 10 year chart. And then, you start to see the gap when you are dealing with those volatilities. The purple line represents the TSX itself and the candlestick chart here represents the TSX venture exchange, so once again, investors need to remember the risks if they decide they want to invest in some of the smaller Companies. Yes, you may end up on the upside, but there is also a risk that you end up on the downside as well. >> Great stuff as always, thanks for that. >> It's always a pleasure be here. >> Nugwa Haruna, senior client education instructor TD Direct Investing. Make sure you do your own research before you make investment decisions. Check out the Learning Center in WebBroker for more educational videos, live, interactive master classes and some upcoming webinars. Never forget back your questions about mining stocks for Greg Barnes, a reminder of how you get in touch with us. Do you have a question about investing or what's driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. You can write in your question and hit send. We will see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. We are back with Greg Barnes, take your questions about mining stocks, so let's get back to them. This one came in the past couple of minutes. Is Copper still a good economic indicator, Dr. Copper, and if there is a bullish case, what does that say about economic health? I don't read that fast. I think I got it all in there. >> I think it's still applicable. You don't need a PhD in economics. I think it tells you to some extent what's going on globally. We appear to be heading for a soft landing, copper strong, China's reopening, get that gives you a pretty good read that demand, the prospect of demand is actually looking pretty good in the next 12 to 18 months if all of that plays out. That is what copper is to some extent tell you. Other facts feed into a clearly but that is one of them. >> Does the EV then complicate the picture? Or is it tied to copper? >> Absolutely, I think that ties into it and it's a bit unique what we are seeing today with this incremental demand growth coming from that sector in particular. But also the supply side being constrained as we talked about earlier on. So all of these things feed into what copper is telling you about the broader market, I think. >> Interesting stuff. On this one, we touched a bit at the top of the discussion but if you are wants to get you or take on new months bid for new crests. It is this a good deal? >>it is an indicative offer for Newmont. It is conditional. They are negotiating due diligence. It is not a done deal. I think Newmont wants to be opportunistic. They have had some challenges, a replacement CEO. Newmont has one of the strongest multiples in their sectors. They are you saying that strong multiple to go after new crest. Is it a good deal? Time will tell. I don't believe there is huge synergy that would be driven out combining these companies. Getting bigger for bigger's sake is not a bad strategy. The question is, does it create real value? Overall, it's good for Newmont. It's not quite so good for new crest at this point. >> There is still a way to go on this one. Also interesting we talked about getting bigger for bigger's sake. Even apart from this, is that sort of a cycle we see commodities and minors go through? I think there was a time where everyone was getting bigger for bigger sake and everyone said it was awesome and they decided they shouldn't be so big anymore. As part of the rhythm? >> It is, it ebbs and flows. But again, we talked about it a little bit earlier. If you need to get the attention of the global general investors, you do need to be big. They need to be big, liquid companies to invest in. That is what they are looking for, particularly when you combine mining to the tech sector where you got these gargantuan companies with trillion dollar plus market caps. Then there mining nasal 40, 50 million market caps, they are not big enough to get the global attention so that is part of the rationale of what they are doing. >>interesting stuff. We have another question now, name specific. Can we get your guests view on Teck resources? >> Tech is well-positioned right now. they are running a major mine right now. They invested $1 billion US building this thing. To rent that up into a strong copper price environment is a good position to be as you get that tailwind from the strong copper price. I think tank also right now is benefiting from coal that goes into making steel. That is very tight as China reopens there will be increasing demand for steel, vis-à-vis demand for steelmaking coal. We see prices up from the mid $200 price to the mid-$300 price. >> Am I mistaken about Teck trying to get away from: get into more lucrative areas? >> Reducing their exposure to cool. Still making cool was the talk that we have heard. That is still on the table. They haven't counted that it. But was still making cool, at $350 a turn, they are making a lot of free cash flow and they are using that free cash flow to reinvest in copper exposure, so it's a pretty good business model right now. I think they are still waiting to decide, tech management that is, whether or not the need to reduce their exposure to coal from an ESG perspectiv it's not clear at this point how the company will be valued once the big new mine is ramped up. Pwhether they will get a full copper company multiple or whether it will be discounted because they have coal exposure. >> A few things working in Teck's favour. Look at tripped him up? Is it China again and whether they come on and want to buy feeling? >> That's effectively the entire mining industry. I think what's important for tech specifically is ramping up this big new mine. That needs to go well for them to get the full benefit of these high copper prices and high production. >> Definitely something to watch there, that project as they embark further down that path. We'll go back to questions for Greg Barnes on mining stocks in a moment. Make sure you do your own research before you make any investment decisions. A reminder that you get in touch with us anytime. You have a question about investing or withdrawing the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind, so send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email anytime at moneytalklive@td.com. Or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. we will see if one of our guest can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. 2022 was a banner year for the Canadian labour market with the unemployment rate remaining near historical lows. Will the Bank of Canada's past rate hikes finally put the brakes on the red-hot labour market this year? Our Anthony Okolie joins us now to dig into a new TD Securities report about the expectations or jobs this Friday. Anthony. >> Thanks very much. As you mentioned, 2022 was a banner year for jobs in Canada and this despite the fact that there was a revision in the December number which shaved about 60,000 jobs. Jan employment rate slipped to 5% pure this was the third drop in 4 Months in December, that left the rate just above the record low of 4.9% reported back in June and July. Again, well below the E5 . 7% of February 2020 just before the pandemic hit. Looking ahead to Friday's jobs report, TD Securities expects the Canadian economy to add just 5000 Jobs in January, that's a steep drop from December numbers. TD Securities points to some revision. We had some very strong job gains in recent months. The forecast points to an unemployment rate rising one percentage point to 5.1%. Interestingly enough, they also expect wage growth to see a large deceleration in January. They expect average hourly earnings for permanent workers to slow to 4.3% year-over-year, really helps by base effects there. By sector, TD Securities is looking for services to be the big driver of job gains in January. We have seen the shift from goods to the service sector over the last couple of months. Particularly in healthcare, they see healthcare rebounding after a short pullback in December. Elsewhere, TD Securities is looking for the arts, recreation and professional services to give back some of last month's big gains, particularly with Tech sector layoffs. That's going to be a big contributor to the professional services decline in January according to TD Securities. Of course, with economic momentum starting to slow into the end of 2022, TD Securities expect the economy to enter a mild recession over the first half of 2023. Greg? >> The base case is here, if I'm getting it at right, is we are seeing wage and job growth slow, we are entering a mild recession. What are the chances that are the outlook for the Bank of Canada in terms of rate? We just finished the whole hiking cycle. They told us they are on pause and now the market is trying to figure out when they will start cutting again. >>they indicated they will pause rate hikes. TD Securities indicates the markets are too aggressive in pricing cuts into the second half of this year. Even with a challenging year term growth outlook, TD Securities expects the Bank of Canada to sit on the terminal rate of 4 1/2% to the duration of this year,not to expect rate cuts until the first quarter of 2024. >> Interesting stuff and the big question of the year. Thanks for that. >> My pleasure. >> MoneyTalk Anthony Okolie. Let's check in on the markets. A bit of downward pressure on Bay and Wall Street. It TSX Composite Index is down abouthundred and 22 points right now little bit more than half a percent. Some weakness in the energy names earlier but they were coming off the bottom so I want to check in on Crescent Point Energy. They are hanging around the same place, down roughly about half a percent, nothing too dramatic. Nine bucks and $0. 27 per share for Crescent Point. Manulife was showing some weakness earlier in the financial space at 2592, down a little bit more than 1%. South of the border, you had that blowout jobs report on Friday, you can't bond yields moving higher, you got the US buck moving higher and Jerome Powell is said to give a speech tomorrow. The market is trying to figure out what to do with it all. August weakness, down 24 points and the S&P 500, a little more than half a percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ right now is down almost a full percent. We had some mega-cap tech names reporting last week. The reads on the quota were pretty much disappointment and across the board for names like Apple, Amazon and Google. Remember Apple over the past though off the back of that week and rallied a bit off of those earnings. Today it's giving a little bit back, let's check in on Apple right now. It is down to the tune of about 1 1/3%. Nothing too dramatic. I feel like every time I look at the markets I'm saying nothing too dramatic but that seems to be the case today. We are back now is Greg Barnes from TD Securities getting to your questions about mining stocks. What you think aboutB2Gold? >> I don't to cover B2Gold. It's one of my partners who covers it. He likes the name a lot. They've got some great assets, especially mining. It's growing rapidly. Expansion is coming soon. Talking M&A here today, B2Gold has been looking for an acquisition, the CEO at the conference was quite open about the fact that they are looking to acquire something but they could be a target for a bigger company. They put out a million ounces year so they would fit with some of the bigger names that we have in Canada. > Interesting stuff. You don't cover the name but I would imagine B2Gold is facing the same risks as any other minor right now. >> Yeah, it's the same, political risks, operating risks, cost inflation, the same things everybody is dealing with. >> Interesting stuff. Thank you for taking that question for the viewer even though it's one of your colleagues fields of expertise. Let's get to another question now. What's the outlook for mining earning season? We are in the thick of earning season. What are we seeing on the bottom line? >> We will start to see the earning season later this week and then it accelerates through next week. A lot of the company is, to be honest with you, have come out already with the production report so we know what they produced in Q4. They've already provided guidance for 2023. So I think for most of the companies that I cover, the early season has been a bit de-risked. The same messages we talked about earlier, people are interested in what's happening on the inflation side. We will see a bit more inflation on the cost side in 2023 then 2022. Across the board, the numbers look strong. These companies are doing well. There are some pockets of unrest like in Panama and Peru. But generally, the companies are pretty well positioned. I think it should be a relatively benign earning season this time around. I always say that and then something happens. >> Is it rather customary to get this sort of pre-release? Here's our production numbers, then there are the actual earnings. It is par for the course or are they trying to smooth things over? >> A lot of companies are trying to manage expectations of the people don't getbig surprises and have a lot of risk. >> Point blank, Chinese reopening and what does it mean for mining? What is the ceases here? >> We are seeing that player today. The Chinese reopening is kind of a big bang in terms of demand with all those Chinese consumers who have a lot of savings coming back into the market to buy stuff. That is driving demand and that is why we are seeing copper prices again, in part, US dollar weakness and other factors building into the big thesis behind why metal prices are strong is the Chinese reopening and expectations about what Chinese growth will look like over the balance of the year and into 2024. >> When I think of China in terms of political risk, I think more clashes between the United States and China. Over the weekend, everyone was obsessed with this balloon stuff. Is there anything about what happens there between Washington and Beijing that makes us worry about minor's perspective on China's reopening, is it really just about if they are hungry for what the miners have, then they are going to buy? >> Look, I don't think the higher political tensions will necessarily impact demand for things like copper unless we have a major event like Russia's invasion of Ukraine or China doing something against Taiwan. Then we potentially of a problem. But otherwise, the tooling and furling on the political side doesn't cause for worry. >> Interesting stuff. Got another question here about the streamers at the miners. This is always interesting. It is the dynamic changing? You you have a streaming company or a pure mining company. >> We did see that player last year. When you are seeing cost inflation rise rapidly, that is problematic for the mining companies. They have to deal with the higher costs. The streaming companies basically take the revenue right off the top line. They are not concerned with costs. Typically, they are a better way to play the gold market for example when costs are rising. If we are on a more benign run for cost inflation in 2023 and 2024 and the price of gold continues to move higher, you probably want more leverage from a producing mind than a streaming company. >> So bit of a shift there because things shift around as well. We are out of time for viewer questions. A final thought just on how we should be thinking about the mining space this year. >> This year again, it's all about macro growth, soft landing, China's reopening, weak supply because there are a lot of challenges out there. If all those things lineup, could be a very good year. I think, to wrap things up, I do think we are on the verge of a supercycle for the copper price, for example. When we talked earlier about the lack of new supply coming into the market, that's real. You will not see big, new copper production coming into the market until the end of this decade and that sets up potentially very high prices. >> Fascinating stuff as always. It was a pleasure to have you. >> Thank you. >> Our thanks to Greg Barnes, mining analyst at TD Securities. Make sure you do your own research before you make any investment decision. You want to stay tuned. On tomorrow show, Damian Fernandes, Poor Clare manager at TD Asset Management will be our guest taking your questions about global stocks. There is a lot to talk about. Even get a head start with this question. Just email moneytalklive@td.com. That's all the time we have for the show today. Thank you for watching. We will see you tomorrow. [music]