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[theme music] >> Hello, I'm Greg Bonnell. Welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing.
Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here. We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing.
Coming up on today's show, we are going to discuss what to expect from that rate decision that is just two hours away from the US Federal Reserve. Gennadiy Goldberg from TD Securities will weigh in.
MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie is giving us a breakdown on the latest Canadian GDP report. And in today's education segment, Ryan Massad is going to show us how you can customize your trading experience on Advanced Dashboard.
Before we get to all that and our guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets.
The TSX Composite Index is up by 215 points.
West Texas intermediate jumped almost 4%.
Rising tensions in the Middle East drawing attention to crude. It's affecting the big energy names. I could've put any of the top players in this country. We will look at Cenovus. Right now, it's up about 1.7%, 2756 per share. Interesting in Toronto right now is Spin Master.
They make toys. They've had some hot ones over the years. Sales down 2% in the latest quarter. Households tightening their budgets, not putting as much on toys. If you have kids, you know they will start playing a game, there are more in game purchases. Spin Master is down 4.5%.
South of the border, as we await the Fed, a lot of excitement.
We have seen trade to the month of July, we are getting ready to close the books on July come out of some of the big tech names and into the small and mid-caps.
The tech trade is back on, at least for today. The S&P 500 up 1.5%. The tech heavy NASDAQ doing even better than that, up 2.6%.
We will tell you later in the show what's going on. It's AMD out with their earnings, a beach there. It is lifting all boats, including Nvidia's boat, to a larger degree than AMD. AMD reported and Nvidia is riding high on that sentiment.
$115 per share for Nvidia, that's 11.5%.
We will show you more about AMD later in the program.
And that's your market update.
We are awaiting the said, less than two hours away now. We will get that rate decision. They are expected not to make move today but we are going to be listening to chair Jerome Powell. He is expected to start laying the groundwork for a cut. The market is thinking it will come in September. Earlier I was joined by Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy with TD Securities to dig into the issues.
>> Everyone is really looking to see whether we can get some sort of hinge from chair Powell, whether it's about the next meeting or the cadence of the cuts they are after. The issue is here, we still got a couple of months of data until the September meeting. The market pricing is for a basis point of rate cuts, about 5% for a rate cut here.
There's really no need for the Fed to actually rock the boat where things stand.
September is mostly priced in, so what we are really expecting is a little bit more of the same, maybe and nudged in the direction of a rate cut coming in the next couple of months, but I think there's going to be a fair amount of data dependence here. I think that chair Powell is going to look at the economic data and say, look, we still have a couple of payroll prints, a couple of CPI prints, all ahead of that September meeting.
There is really no need for us to rush into a decision just yet, especially as we have been burned in the past.
>> As we look for that knowledge, central bankers because different than regular human speak. What does a nudge or a hint look like when we talk about Jerome Powell?
>> It's really two things. It's inflation and labour markets.
Inflation is lower. They have been waiting to stabilize that of the last couple of months, since the start of the year. They have been waiting for inflation to slow.
On the labour market side, what they have been talking about is actually moderation in labour market momentum. We are not talking about outright weakness so far, we are talking about really just a moderation in the strength. You have seen the unemployment rate drift up. You have seen openings drift down. We are closer to equilibrium. If chair Powell basically says, we are near equilibrium, we are really getting close or we are a little bit concerned, perhaps, about the state of the labour market, that could be a hint to Marcus that perhaps more cuts are coming that are currently priced in.
>> Let's talk about the past, no expectation that they need to do anything at this moment but they will start laying the groundwork and that's what we need to listen for, their takes on inflation and jobs.
If they delay that groundwork, what we think the right path looks like September, then following on from that, perhaps even for the next year?
>> Yeah, to be quite honest, it is going to be a relatively difficult path starting next year. I think next year is the real trouble someone because we got the election in November. In the next couple of months, I think the path is relatively clear, at least in the first one.
We expect the first cut in September. We got one penciled in for December as well.
We expect them to skip the November meeting. If, over the next few months, you get more labour market deterioration, you get further weakening, more than expected, on the inflation side, they could start talking about the potential for a November cut. It's a little bit tricky and it's only a couple days after the US election, so we may not know necessarily who the winner is at that point. We may not know the path forward for monetary policy.
And as we get into next year, the question is, what does a trumpet victory in November or a Harris victory in November look like? One of them could actually bring more inflation, one of them could bring status quo. Our baseline scenario right now is September cut, December cut and then for more next year.
But of course, the Fed is going to be assessing that as we go and if there is a shock on the presidential election outcome side, we could certainly have them reconsider.
>> That brings us back to the focus of what we've been focused on her all along, what inflationary pressures could emerge again? We seem to be on the right trajectory, as you said. We feel, I know we can't separate politics from this but from what we are seeing so far, are we on the right track for inflation?
>> I think so, I need more than we have seen since the start of the year, we are on a better trajectory. If you look underneath the surface and the Fed does this all the time, if you look at core inflation, housing inflation, core services inflation, all of those measures are actually starting to moderate a little bit and I think that has been quite important for the Fed. It's not just the topline numbers driving the trend, it's real, fundamental improvement in some of the subcomponents of inflation, some of which have been quite sticky. You take housing, for example. Everyone is waiting for housing inflation to really moderate for quite some time and if you're looking at the CPI gauge, basically one third of the entire index.
These are real heavy hitters that have been seeing some slowing in the last couple of months. If they continue, as all the model say they should, that's really the go-ahead from the Fed, for the Fed to start actually cutting rates as we get into the fall.
>> I imagine the landing that the Fed, and any central bank that went through that aggressive hiking cycle to tame inflation, they are trying to stick to that soft landing. We did not do too much damage to the economy, we got inflation back where we wanted it to be, so soft landing versus hard landing. What looks like the likely outcome of all this?
>> So at the moment, the data is quite noisy. I will tell you, I've been doing for quite a while, I have yet to see this much disparity in some of the underlying gauges. You have one data point that points up, another when the points down.
Realistically speaking, we are not seeing a massive amount of weakness. We are seeing an economy where inflation is starting to normalize and the labour market is starting to get closer to neutral. We are getting towards more of an even keeled labour market.
Now, so far, it's consistent with a soft landing but, of course, we will see. If the landing is not quite so soft, the Fed can certainly adjust the pace of cuts to compensate. Really, this is a redemption story for the Fed. They are looking to redeem themselves for that period of inflation they call transitory which they are not referring to as transitory anymore. If they can soft land this economy, chair Powell becomes one of the greatest Fed shares that has ever lived and he can really sail off into the sunset.
I think this is really what they are trying to do, Southland the economy to the best of their ability. They pulled us before, if the data decelerates faster than they expect, they can adjust the pace of cuts towards a lower rate; if the inflation data hangs in longer than expected, they can keep these cuts very, very slow, assuming nothing else breaks.
>> After this week's rate decision, of course, we will have to wait for September for the next decision but there will be Jackson Hole. He watched as a financial markets you don't expect much but it was about two summers ago when Jerome Powell came out of Jackson Hole and basically poured a big bucket of cold water on excitations two years ago that they were anywhere close to cutting rates. Could we get another Jackson Hole surprise this year, do you think that whatever he has to lay up for us, he's going to lay out this week?
>> I think a lot of it is going to get laid out this week. The issue is he doesn't really want to pre-commit and that's always the fundamental problem with the Fed.
Jackson Hole can be used and has been used in the past as almost a nice said meeting of the year.
We will get more reports before that.
The issue is right now the market is 100% price for a September cut, we are almost 90% price for December cut and about 60% for November. Not much nudging needs to take place. He can lay the groundwork and say if this persists for another month, that may be enough for us to pull the trigger in September. There is no real need for him to rock the boat. It's smooth sailing from here assuming the data cooperates.
>> Let's talk about a data point you're getting at the end of this week, the jobs report.
>> We are looking for a rebound in the pace of-- we are looking for 200,000 on the headline payroll print. The real thing we are watching for is the extent of the revisions. The three month average dramatically changed recently. We want to be keeping an eye on that just make sure it doesn't happen again.
We also are looking at the unemployment rate which has been drifting up to about 4.1%. We expect that to stay steady.
We are looking at wages. Right now, we are looking for a .2 or 0.2% increase on a month over month basis. That should be consistent with gradually cooling the labour market, that should be consistent with gradually cooling inflation and even before the payroll print on Wednesday morning, we will be getting the implement cost index which should also be slowing a little bit, we are looking for a .9% increase on that when on 1/4 on quarter basis which will continue to show wages really starting to slow down. So more moderation in the labour market than outright weakening so far.
>> That was Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rate strategy with TD Securities. Coming up after we do get that Fed rate decision at 2 PM Eastern time, we are going to have breaking analysis. TD Asset Management Scott Colbourne will be speaking with my colleague, Anthony Okolie. Be sure to look out for that in your inbox or you can go to web broker or the website, moneytalkgo.com.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business today. The chipmakers are back on the move today to the upside, this on the back of better-than-expected results from AMD.
Let's put AMD in the spotlight. The stock is a little more than 4%.
Sales for the data centre unit, capturing AMD's AI focus, jumped. It's these results that got money moving back towards the chipmakers. While AMD is up a pretty solid 4%, we showed you Nvidia earlier in the show and it's up almost 12% because it is the big player in the space.
Shares of Microsoft in the spotlight today, want to check in on those, they were to the downside earlier in the session, right now down a little more than 1.5%. The tech giant actually beat expectations on the top and bottom lines for its most recent quarter, but investors appear to be more focused on the cloud business.
Sales for that is where segment grew 29% year-over-year. Not good enough. The street was looking for growth of 31%.
It also appears to be a case of not as bad as expected for Starbucks, missing their sales estimates for the most recent quarter, facing weaker demand in both the United States and international markets.
Same-store sales, a key metric for the industry, fell 3%, lower foot traffic.
That said, Starbucks is standing by its outlook.
It's perhaps not as bad as feared by the street. The stock is a little more than 4%.
Quick check in on the markets, we will start from Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index. We have the price of oil substantially hired today on tensions in the Middle East and is lifting a lot of the energy names, lifting the TSX Composite Index by a full percent or 229 points. South of the border, and of the Fed, excitement and the chip space, that's a gain of 1.5% on the S&P 500.
It's a busy Wednesday. We also have a read on Canadian GDP. Anthony Okolie has been digging in with the details. What did we get?
>> Stats Canada said the data came in slightly better-than-expected.
In May, the Canadian economy grew .3% month over month, slightly higher than stats Canada and market estimates 4.1% gain.
This builds on the gains we saw in April of .3% month over month there. TD Economics says that Q2 growth is now tracking to just over 2%. If realize, that could be the fastest quarter of growth since the second quarter of 2022. When you look at the flash estimate, slightly lower, slightly less aggressive. We did see June is up .1% month over month, according to stats Canada, so that slightly weaker than what we saw in May.
That was driven by construction, real estate and finance sector.
Let's break down the latest data. We will show where the broad-based gains are.
15/20 industries saw gains, led by the goods producing industries. Manufacturing was the biggest contributor. Manufacturing had its biggest gain since January 2023.
The service side, slightly fewer gains versus the good side but interesting notes there. The start of the long-delayed $34 billion Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project was actually a boost to the transportation sector in May and the overall economy so it did see some gains there.
The biggest rate, as you see in the chart, was wholesale and retail trade. We also saw some weakness in the mining and oil and gas extraction sector.
That was due to some maintenance facilities in northern Alberta. Overall, but of an upside surprise to the data against the BOC's projections.
>> Let's talk about the BOC projections.
We have had to rate cuts from our central bank in the cycle, they came out with a new monetary policy report. That's a fancy way of saying, here are our new expectations for the economy.
>> We spoke with TD Securities and they don't believe that this report is really gonna be enough to take another rate cut off the table. They think that the Bank of Canada is likelier to focus on some upcoming inflation and job stated that will carry more weight when they consider the next decision. Right now, TD Securities is leaning towards a hold in September. They say it's quite a close call. Looking further out, they believe that for the year, the Bank of Canada is likely to cut about 100 basis points this year with a return to neutral by the end of 2025.
>> Already 50 basis points under their belt so far. Thanks of that.
>> My pleasure.
>> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie.
Now, look at our educational segment of the day. He in today's education segment, we are going to take a look at TD's Advanced Dashboard, platform designed for active traders available through TD Direct Investing.
Ryan Massad, Senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing joins us now. Great to see you. You're gonna walk us through some of the customization features on advanced dashboard.
>> I definitely will, Greg. These days, with all these announcements, the Fed announcements, you really want to have things customized in a way that can have you jump on trades quicker and not have to worry about clicking around and advanced dashboard really gives you that customization. Let's jump in and I will show you a couple of things that you can do in advanced dashboard. So the first thing that you can always do is click on the bid and ask. Let's look at this watchlist component here. I'm gonna maximize it by clicking this button just so we can see a little bit better.
Obviously, you can click on the bid to sell and asked to buy.
If I do that, our nice pretty trade ticket pops up and then we can enter in the information quickly. If we just want to sit on this, we've got a bid and ask that are going on the ticket and we wanted to change the price, we just have to click on that bid or ask price and it will change with the limit prices. This is one of the most basic ways to do it.
The beauty of advanced dashboard is you can have a couple of trade tickets open at the same time so if you are waiting for something, like a Fed announcement, to act on a particular buy or sell, you could have a couple of these open and ready to go and click on them when the time comes.
Now on the watchlist as well, you have these three buttons. If you want to be more precise, quicker to the punch when you are sending your order ticket. You're going to click there. Not only do you have the buy and sell, which is kind of like the bid and ask, but you have the cover if you're gonna cover a short decision, you're going to short, you even have custom ones that you can open up with these conditional orders that we have talked about will for, whether they would be on the buy side or the sell side.
Again, you have a lot of choice coming out of just this watchlist and a lot of you already have the watchlist so by all means, keep using the watchlist. Another way I want you to see how you can customize is on the chart itself and that's really interesting. I'm gonna maximize this for a second.
On the chart, it's really nice because you can actually ask the chart to show you with the last trading prices and it's changing as the quote is streaming. You can see that on the right here. So it's much easier to be able to guess or know where you are when you're placing a trade.
You have the bid and ask as well on the left and you can buy or sell off of those.
On the chart settings, you can actually set more items. If you want to see the high and low prices, if you want to see the bid and ask lines, they will all come up. You can even ask that you see those actual prices as labels and that makes it much easier for you to be able to trade and go on there. Again, the name of the game here is customization so that you can get to your trade as efficiently as possible in Advanced Dashboard.
>> When that order entry ticket pops up, obviously there were some values already populated in there. Can we customize those as well?
>> Definitely. The easiest way to do it is right off that trade ticket.
We open the trade ticket. In the top right corner and Advanced Dashboard, you see this gear icon.
If I click there, it will take me right to the order defaults. Do I wanted to be a day order by default? Do I want to buy at the ask, sell at the bid or buy at the bid, sell at the ask it? What is the default quantity that I want?
What type of order do I want? A limit order, a market order, a stop order of some sort? The idea behind this is you are setting the most efficient type of trade, one that you will use most often, avoiding all of that clicking so that when you hear that Fed announcement and you want to make some trades quick, things will be set up properly and efficiently for you and that's the name of the game here in Advanced Dashboard, making you a more efficient trader.
>> Great stuff. Thanks that.
>> Thank you, Greg.
>> Ryan Massad, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing.
For more educational resources, you can check out the learning centre on what broker or you can use this QR code. It will navigate to TD Direct Investing's YouTube page. Once you are there, you will find more informative videos.
It's been a very interesting month of July. We are getting ready to close the books. We have seen some pretty big rotations, sell downs and some of the big magnificent tech names as they are called, they are starting to move into other parts of the market. Christian Medeiros, VP and portfolio manager for asset allocation at TD Asset Management joined me earlier to discuss.
>> Leading into the halfway point in the year, we had tech really outperforming, the NASDAQ was at maybe 21% leading up to that point. On the other hand of the spectrum, small caps were pretty much flat over the course of the year.
But what happened is we got the June CPI released on July 10 and it came in really light. Inflation was really moderating.
That resulted in a huge change in market sentiment. What we have seen since then is that the small-cap index has been up over 11% and the NASDAQ is down 6% so what was a 20% differential between small-cap and large-cap tech has no since then become only a couple of point difference between the two so absolute a massive rotation between those two segments of the market.
>> What's behind that?
>> I think part of it is that fundamental story there which is that the small-cap companies are much more interest-rate sedatives, have more floating-rate debt.
With inflation surprising to the downside and rate cuts being priced back into the curve, investors are a lot more control holding the small-cap names. But what drove the move is investor crowding and positioning.
Now that things are looking a bit better for small caps, you might want to start closing out those underweight. If your long-term manager, maybe you can short a profitable small company all year and overweight the large-cap names. That has been a great long trait. But with that huge news catalyst that happened, investors have been shuffling their positions and many think about the size of these two markets, only a couple large-cap names, a couple of Magnificent Seven names, are the same size as the entire Russell 2000. People start to move slowly into small caps from large-caps. That resulted in a huge Grambling for the exits.
That can really push share prices aggressively.
More rate cuts being price plus investor crowding and large-cap names and a rush to the exits is really what push that rotation and what we have seen with the huge small-cap return so far in July.
>> Those macro trades, we are talking about AI there in the big tech names.
You're also noticing the yen as well and some of the trades.
>> We have seen this play out over the first half winners. If you look at the end, versus the US dollar, it appreciated quite substantially during the first half of this year due to monetary policy of Japan. Now that we have seen the CPI print and more rate cuts paste into the US, that relative rate differential is less favourable for the end and we've seen stronger depreciation in the end from 162 to 152. It's a huge move. Part of that is an unwinding. A lot of currency multi acid investors have been happy to fund their trades by being short yen and long other trades due to the positive rate differential. We have seen that unwind rapidly. At the same rate we have seen the unwind from large-cap into small-cap equities.
>> How does this set us up to the second half of the year? I feel like one of the things as we have seen this interesting trade through July where these big tech winners are starting to sell down, money moving into small caps.
Is this a summer blood?
>> When we think about small-cap outperformance, usually periods where small caps persistently a form is periods where economic growth is re-accelerating, usually from the depths of a recession and we see the huge performance of small-cap stocks. So far this year, growth is strong in the US. It has surprise to the upside.
It's not re-acceleration. We are not coming out of a recession. It's probably moderating into the second half. For small caps to massively a form of this magnitude for the rest of the year seems unlikely to us but it is quite possible that we have a broadening of equity market participation beyond just AI and Magnificent Seven set up and leading so far this year.
>> Is at one of the things you want to see in the commentary? People think that would be a healthier market. There were his concern about the concentration in the Magnificent Seven. What happens if they are not so magnificent anymore? Is that a healthier market overall?
>> I think for a lot of individual investors it is because it's dangerous to have a market that's very one directional and very crowded.
A lot of investors do away with diversification and don't hold a broad mix of equities or asset classes which would be better. So for investors I think it's a good wake-up call that you do need a broader allocation to different sectors in the market in different asset classes.
Throughout this whole period, the S&P 500 is in down much. It speaks to you having a more diversified approach to markets and everyone can't just be crowded into one trade. I think it's good wake-up call to favour diversification.
>> It's been an interesting summer so far in terms of what we have seen a market rotation. Interesting politically south of the border. We have had some big shakeups in US politics.
As we get to the summer and had into the fall, we have the November vote. What do we need to be mindful of? How much volatility might we see heading into November?
>> There is a lot to be mindful of.
We have had extreme lows for most the year.
It was 12 on the Vic's and spiked up to the high teens. Going into November, with election be more competitive, investors are going to be weighing the pros and cons of each, the different electoral outcomes possible on November 5. We have seen a lot of big events happening US politics over the last month. More will happen.
The poles will shift. Investors are going to be weighing the different policy options getting into November so I think volatility remains elevated but not catastrophically so. I think the positive aspect all this to is that now we have a more competitive election, there's a better chance that neither candidate will sweep. If neither candidate can sweep the legislature, they have restraints on the power.
>> That was Christian Medeiros, VP and portfolio manager for asset allocation with TD Asset Management.
Now, let's get you an update on the markets.
We are back in the Advanced Dashboard on the heat map. We have been on the screen on both sides of the border. Let's begin deeper. TSX 60, screening by price and volume. Not only do we have oil substantially higher today, the price of gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium also hire and it does mean broad-based strength for the TSX. We have the energy names up to the tune of about 3%, whether it's a CNQ or Suncor or Cenovus. You can see in the mining bucket with the basic materials, strong moves for a lot of the minors, whether they are more levered towards gold or copper, it all seems to be working in their favour.
Financials putting some points on the table. The percentage gains are not as big but they are the heavyweights when it comes to that TSX Composite Index topline number. You're saying I do see read on the screen. That is CAR, that would be a Canadian apartment REIT down about 1.5% right now. Other than that, it's a pretty broad-based rally on Bay Street.
South of the border ahead of the Fed, we are about an hour and 1/2 away from hearing from Jerome Powell in terms of interest-rate policy, expectation from the market today is that nothing happens today, groundwork will be late for cut as early as September so we have some interesting moves. We told you earlier that AMD was the chipmaker out with his quarterly results. They impress the street. The stock rose 4% but that got people excited again about the chipmaker's after some tough days in recent weeks so you got Nvidia, the big name of the space, a little more than 11%.
Really dominating.
I know we've been through this before, if you're watching the show for the first time, the more real estate you take up on the heat map, you are screening by volume, that means a lot of activity in Nvidia today.
Joint account can be a convenient tool between spouses or to help a senior parent manage their finances. What happens when a joint account is used as an estate planning strategy? Mindi Banach, tax and estate planner with TD Wealth join Kim Parlee to share some situations where it can make sense and where things get complicated.
>> So yes, joint accounts can't be a good estate planning tool, especially in a context with two spouses where there is no unique circumstances like a blended family or US citizenship issues. Often between two spouses, it is advised that spouses should hold accounts jointly but in other contexts like between a parent and an adult child, it's not always straightforward. There are significant risks that you do need to be concerned about. I want to mention that I understand why a lot of parents want to add their adult children on title. They are concerned as they age who was going to be able to manage their finances, who going to be able to pay those bills and they think that a joint account by adding their child on title can help with that but again, I want to talk about those risks that occur when a parent adds a child as a joint account holder. I want to mention that one of the biggest, most litigated issues in the court system are joint accounts because when things go wrong, they can go really wrong. What are the risks? Creditor issues.
If the child has financial problems, the creditors can go after the joint account with the parent. There are lots of and misuse of funds issues. Often a joint account holder can access the account and make decisions about the account, can possibly withdraw money from the account without getting the permission of the other party, the parents permission beforehand, so there could be a situation where the funds are not used in the way that the parent wanted, as well as the fact that there might be some tax implications. A parent adds a child on title, there could be a disposition on the amount that was transferred to the child which could lead to some capital gain tax liabilities.
There are a number of risks, these are just a few of them. Before parent as a child, you do want to consider these risks.
>> That's a long list. One thing I heard from many people is that when someone dies, the government has to process the estate, go through probate. There are fees attached with probate and I think some people think if I have a joint account, do I avoid the probate side of things?
>> In some circumstances, you can.
Back between two spouses, when one spouse passes away, the surviving spouse will often inherent the funds within the joint account by something called the right of survivorship and what that means is the surviving spouse is able to access to funds in that joint account by this concept of right of survivorship. They don't need to go through the probate process, they don't have to pay probate fees but it's important to note that Québec does not recognize right of survivorship and some provinces are concerned about probate fees. In other contexts such as between a parent and a child, if you create a joint account, it's not always going to avoid probate fees.
For example, even if a bank does not require the probate process in order to release funds to a surviving joint account holder like a surviving child, if the deceased parents executor it needs to probate any other asset within the estate and they have to complete the state's inventory on the probate application, and executor may still be required to reporting that joint account that parent had with the child and in that circumstance, probate fees may apply.
Are there circumstances where a joint account between a parent and child will avoid probate fees? Yes, but it typically involves evidence to prove the parents attend at the time that the parent created the joint account and one less thing that I really want to highlight here is that often times I find that one of the reasons why parents include their children on title to the real estate properties is because they think that they will avoid probate fees and I want to highlight that that is eligible for the principal residence exemption. One risk by adding your child on title is that you may now lose part of the ability to shelter the entire gain of any capital gain tax under your principal residence exemption if you add your child on title to real estate.
Again, parents really need to look into the implications of adding children on title and probate fees pale in comparison to capital gains probate rates.
>> I've only got a couple of minutes here and this could be an entire conversation unto itself. Bare trust's. There's been lots of media about what is a bare trust, what is not a bare trust. The CRA is still figuring it out. What you need to think about?
>> People should be aware of these new trust filing requirements because a lot of Canadians are unaware that when they add someone's name on title, they are arguably creating a certain type of trust that may now potentially require new trust filing obligations. The CRA has waived their trust filing obligations for the tax year 2023.
We are awaiting additional guidance for tax year 2024 and beyond but this is something that people need to be aware of because they may have new trust filing obligations.
>> High level, if you are listening and thinking, joint account is too much risk.
What are some other alternatives?
>> You could consider a power of attorney, but it's based on your unique facts and circumstances.
>> One thing to remember is to speak to somebody if you need to talk to someone.
Who, in this case can mark >> There are a number of professionals you want to speak to because they can provide you with tailored advice based on your facts and circumstances. An estate planning lawyer can advise you about the legal implications as well as the legal documents that might be necessary. An accountant can deal with and provide you with guidance around compliance and tax issues, and a financial advisor can guide you where joint accounts can help you within your overall estate plan as well as provide you with more information about the policies and procedures of a financial institution.
>> That was Mindi Banach, tax and estate planner with TD Wealth.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
So what have we got on the screen right now? Less than 90 minutes away from a Fed rate decision that we are going to hear from Jerome Powell. We are going to have breaking analysis for you this afternoon.
TD Asset Management's Scott Colbourne will weigh in. Be sure to look out for that in your inbox on my broker or on our website, moneytalkgo.com.
On tomorrow's show, we would have even more reaction to the Fed, discuss what it means for the bond market. Hafiz Noordin from TD Asset Management will be our guest. You also want to take your questions about fixed income. You can get your questions ahead of time.
Just email MoneyTalkLive@TD.com.
That's all the time we have the show today.
Thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow.
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Every day, I'll be joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here. We're going to take you through what's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing.
Coming up on today's show, we are going to discuss what to expect from that rate decision that is just two hours away from the US Federal Reserve. Gennadiy Goldberg from TD Securities will weigh in.
MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie is giving us a breakdown on the latest Canadian GDP report. And in today's education segment, Ryan Massad is going to show us how you can customize your trading experience on Advanced Dashboard.
Before we get to all that and our guest of the day, let's get you an update on the markets.
The TSX Composite Index is up by 215 points.
West Texas intermediate jumped almost 4%.
Rising tensions in the Middle East drawing attention to crude. It's affecting the big energy names. I could've put any of the top players in this country. We will look at Cenovus. Right now, it's up about 1.7%, 2756 per share. Interesting in Toronto right now is Spin Master.
They make toys. They've had some hot ones over the years. Sales down 2% in the latest quarter. Households tightening their budgets, not putting as much on toys. If you have kids, you know they will start playing a game, there are more in game purchases. Spin Master is down 4.5%.
South of the border, as we await the Fed, a lot of excitement.
We have seen trade to the month of July, we are getting ready to close the books on July come out of some of the big tech names and into the small and mid-caps.
The tech trade is back on, at least for today. The S&P 500 up 1.5%. The tech heavy NASDAQ doing even better than that, up 2.6%.
We will tell you later in the show what's going on. It's AMD out with their earnings, a beach there. It is lifting all boats, including Nvidia's boat, to a larger degree than AMD. AMD reported and Nvidia is riding high on that sentiment.
$115 per share for Nvidia, that's 11.5%.
We will show you more about AMD later in the program.
And that's your market update.
We are awaiting the said, less than two hours away now. We will get that rate decision. They are expected not to make move today but we are going to be listening to chair Jerome Powell. He is expected to start laying the groundwork for a cut. The market is thinking it will come in September. Earlier I was joined by Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy with TD Securities to dig into the issues.
>> Everyone is really looking to see whether we can get some sort of hinge from chair Powell, whether it's about the next meeting or the cadence of the cuts they are after. The issue is here, we still got a couple of months of data until the September meeting. The market pricing is for a basis point of rate cuts, about 5% for a rate cut here.
There's really no need for the Fed to actually rock the boat where things stand.
September is mostly priced in, so what we are really expecting is a little bit more of the same, maybe and nudged in the direction of a rate cut coming in the next couple of months, but I think there's going to be a fair amount of data dependence here. I think that chair Powell is going to look at the economic data and say, look, we still have a couple of payroll prints, a couple of CPI prints, all ahead of that September meeting.
There is really no need for us to rush into a decision just yet, especially as we have been burned in the past.
>> As we look for that knowledge, central bankers because different than regular human speak. What does a nudge or a hint look like when we talk about Jerome Powell?
>> It's really two things. It's inflation and labour markets.
Inflation is lower. They have been waiting to stabilize that of the last couple of months, since the start of the year. They have been waiting for inflation to slow.
On the labour market side, what they have been talking about is actually moderation in labour market momentum. We are not talking about outright weakness so far, we are talking about really just a moderation in the strength. You have seen the unemployment rate drift up. You have seen openings drift down. We are closer to equilibrium. If chair Powell basically says, we are near equilibrium, we are really getting close or we are a little bit concerned, perhaps, about the state of the labour market, that could be a hint to Marcus that perhaps more cuts are coming that are currently priced in.
>> Let's talk about the past, no expectation that they need to do anything at this moment but they will start laying the groundwork and that's what we need to listen for, their takes on inflation and jobs.
If they delay that groundwork, what we think the right path looks like September, then following on from that, perhaps even for the next year?
>> Yeah, to be quite honest, it is going to be a relatively difficult path starting next year. I think next year is the real trouble someone because we got the election in November. In the next couple of months, I think the path is relatively clear, at least in the first one.
We expect the first cut in September. We got one penciled in for December as well.
We expect them to skip the November meeting. If, over the next few months, you get more labour market deterioration, you get further weakening, more than expected, on the inflation side, they could start talking about the potential for a November cut. It's a little bit tricky and it's only a couple days after the US election, so we may not know necessarily who the winner is at that point. We may not know the path forward for monetary policy.
And as we get into next year, the question is, what does a trumpet victory in November or a Harris victory in November look like? One of them could actually bring more inflation, one of them could bring status quo. Our baseline scenario right now is September cut, December cut and then for more next year.
But of course, the Fed is going to be assessing that as we go and if there is a shock on the presidential election outcome side, we could certainly have them reconsider.
>> That brings us back to the focus of what we've been focused on her all along, what inflationary pressures could emerge again? We seem to be on the right trajectory, as you said. We feel, I know we can't separate politics from this but from what we are seeing so far, are we on the right track for inflation?
>> I think so, I need more than we have seen since the start of the year, we are on a better trajectory. If you look underneath the surface and the Fed does this all the time, if you look at core inflation, housing inflation, core services inflation, all of those measures are actually starting to moderate a little bit and I think that has been quite important for the Fed. It's not just the topline numbers driving the trend, it's real, fundamental improvement in some of the subcomponents of inflation, some of which have been quite sticky. You take housing, for example. Everyone is waiting for housing inflation to really moderate for quite some time and if you're looking at the CPI gauge, basically one third of the entire index.
These are real heavy hitters that have been seeing some slowing in the last couple of months. If they continue, as all the model say they should, that's really the go-ahead from the Fed, for the Fed to start actually cutting rates as we get into the fall.
>> I imagine the landing that the Fed, and any central bank that went through that aggressive hiking cycle to tame inflation, they are trying to stick to that soft landing. We did not do too much damage to the economy, we got inflation back where we wanted it to be, so soft landing versus hard landing. What looks like the likely outcome of all this?
>> So at the moment, the data is quite noisy. I will tell you, I've been doing for quite a while, I have yet to see this much disparity in some of the underlying gauges. You have one data point that points up, another when the points down.
Realistically speaking, we are not seeing a massive amount of weakness. We are seeing an economy where inflation is starting to normalize and the labour market is starting to get closer to neutral. We are getting towards more of an even keeled labour market.
Now, so far, it's consistent with a soft landing but, of course, we will see. If the landing is not quite so soft, the Fed can certainly adjust the pace of cuts to compensate. Really, this is a redemption story for the Fed. They are looking to redeem themselves for that period of inflation they call transitory which they are not referring to as transitory anymore. If they can soft land this economy, chair Powell becomes one of the greatest Fed shares that has ever lived and he can really sail off into the sunset.
I think this is really what they are trying to do, Southland the economy to the best of their ability. They pulled us before, if the data decelerates faster than they expect, they can adjust the pace of cuts towards a lower rate; if the inflation data hangs in longer than expected, they can keep these cuts very, very slow, assuming nothing else breaks.
>> After this week's rate decision, of course, we will have to wait for September for the next decision but there will be Jackson Hole. He watched as a financial markets you don't expect much but it was about two summers ago when Jerome Powell came out of Jackson Hole and basically poured a big bucket of cold water on excitations two years ago that they were anywhere close to cutting rates. Could we get another Jackson Hole surprise this year, do you think that whatever he has to lay up for us, he's going to lay out this week?
>> I think a lot of it is going to get laid out this week. The issue is he doesn't really want to pre-commit and that's always the fundamental problem with the Fed.
Jackson Hole can be used and has been used in the past as almost a nice said meeting of the year.
We will get more reports before that.
The issue is right now the market is 100% price for a September cut, we are almost 90% price for December cut and about 60% for November. Not much nudging needs to take place. He can lay the groundwork and say if this persists for another month, that may be enough for us to pull the trigger in September. There is no real need for him to rock the boat. It's smooth sailing from here assuming the data cooperates.
>> Let's talk about a data point you're getting at the end of this week, the jobs report.
>> We are looking for a rebound in the pace of-- we are looking for 200,000 on the headline payroll print. The real thing we are watching for is the extent of the revisions. The three month average dramatically changed recently. We want to be keeping an eye on that just make sure it doesn't happen again.
We also are looking at the unemployment rate which has been drifting up to about 4.1%. We expect that to stay steady.
We are looking at wages. Right now, we are looking for a .2 or 0.2% increase on a month over month basis. That should be consistent with gradually cooling the labour market, that should be consistent with gradually cooling inflation and even before the payroll print on Wednesday morning, we will be getting the implement cost index which should also be slowing a little bit, we are looking for a .9% increase on that when on 1/4 on quarter basis which will continue to show wages really starting to slow down. So more moderation in the labour market than outright weakening so far.
>> That was Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rate strategy with TD Securities. Coming up after we do get that Fed rate decision at 2 PM Eastern time, we are going to have breaking analysis. TD Asset Management Scott Colbourne will be speaking with my colleague, Anthony Okolie. Be sure to look out for that in your inbox or you can go to web broker or the website, moneytalkgo.com.
Right now, let's get you updated on the top stories in the world of business today. The chipmakers are back on the move today to the upside, this on the back of better-than-expected results from AMD.
Let's put AMD in the spotlight. The stock is a little more than 4%.
Sales for the data centre unit, capturing AMD's AI focus, jumped. It's these results that got money moving back towards the chipmakers. While AMD is up a pretty solid 4%, we showed you Nvidia earlier in the show and it's up almost 12% because it is the big player in the space.
Shares of Microsoft in the spotlight today, want to check in on those, they were to the downside earlier in the session, right now down a little more than 1.5%. The tech giant actually beat expectations on the top and bottom lines for its most recent quarter, but investors appear to be more focused on the cloud business.
Sales for that is where segment grew 29% year-over-year. Not good enough. The street was looking for growth of 31%.
It also appears to be a case of not as bad as expected for Starbucks, missing their sales estimates for the most recent quarter, facing weaker demand in both the United States and international markets.
Same-store sales, a key metric for the industry, fell 3%, lower foot traffic.
That said, Starbucks is standing by its outlook.
It's perhaps not as bad as feared by the street. The stock is a little more than 4%.
Quick check in on the markets, we will start from Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index. We have the price of oil substantially hired today on tensions in the Middle East and is lifting a lot of the energy names, lifting the TSX Composite Index by a full percent or 229 points. South of the border, and of the Fed, excitement and the chip space, that's a gain of 1.5% on the S&P 500.
It's a busy Wednesday. We also have a read on Canadian GDP. Anthony Okolie has been digging in with the details. What did we get?
>> Stats Canada said the data came in slightly better-than-expected.
In May, the Canadian economy grew .3% month over month, slightly higher than stats Canada and market estimates 4.1% gain.
This builds on the gains we saw in April of .3% month over month there. TD Economics says that Q2 growth is now tracking to just over 2%. If realize, that could be the fastest quarter of growth since the second quarter of 2022. When you look at the flash estimate, slightly lower, slightly less aggressive. We did see June is up .1% month over month, according to stats Canada, so that slightly weaker than what we saw in May.
That was driven by construction, real estate and finance sector.
Let's break down the latest data. We will show where the broad-based gains are.
15/20 industries saw gains, led by the goods producing industries. Manufacturing was the biggest contributor. Manufacturing had its biggest gain since January 2023.
The service side, slightly fewer gains versus the good side but interesting notes there. The start of the long-delayed $34 billion Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project was actually a boost to the transportation sector in May and the overall economy so it did see some gains there.
The biggest rate, as you see in the chart, was wholesale and retail trade. We also saw some weakness in the mining and oil and gas extraction sector.
That was due to some maintenance facilities in northern Alberta. Overall, but of an upside surprise to the data against the BOC's projections.
>> Let's talk about the BOC projections.
We have had to rate cuts from our central bank in the cycle, they came out with a new monetary policy report. That's a fancy way of saying, here are our new expectations for the economy.
>> We spoke with TD Securities and they don't believe that this report is really gonna be enough to take another rate cut off the table. They think that the Bank of Canada is likelier to focus on some upcoming inflation and job stated that will carry more weight when they consider the next decision. Right now, TD Securities is leaning towards a hold in September. They say it's quite a close call. Looking further out, they believe that for the year, the Bank of Canada is likely to cut about 100 basis points this year with a return to neutral by the end of 2025.
>> Already 50 basis points under their belt so far. Thanks of that.
>> My pleasure.
>> MoneyTalk's Anthony Okolie.
Now, look at our educational segment of the day. He in today's education segment, we are going to take a look at TD's Advanced Dashboard, platform designed for active traders available through TD Direct Investing.
Ryan Massad, Senior client education instructor with TD Direct Investing joins us now. Great to see you. You're gonna walk us through some of the customization features on advanced dashboard.
>> I definitely will, Greg. These days, with all these announcements, the Fed announcements, you really want to have things customized in a way that can have you jump on trades quicker and not have to worry about clicking around and advanced dashboard really gives you that customization. Let's jump in and I will show you a couple of things that you can do in advanced dashboard. So the first thing that you can always do is click on the bid and ask. Let's look at this watchlist component here. I'm gonna maximize it by clicking this button just so we can see a little bit better.
Obviously, you can click on the bid to sell and asked to buy.
If I do that, our nice pretty trade ticket pops up and then we can enter in the information quickly. If we just want to sit on this, we've got a bid and ask that are going on the ticket and we wanted to change the price, we just have to click on that bid or ask price and it will change with the limit prices. This is one of the most basic ways to do it.
The beauty of advanced dashboard is you can have a couple of trade tickets open at the same time so if you are waiting for something, like a Fed announcement, to act on a particular buy or sell, you could have a couple of these open and ready to go and click on them when the time comes.
Now on the watchlist as well, you have these three buttons. If you want to be more precise, quicker to the punch when you are sending your order ticket. You're going to click there. Not only do you have the buy and sell, which is kind of like the bid and ask, but you have the cover if you're gonna cover a short decision, you're going to short, you even have custom ones that you can open up with these conditional orders that we have talked about will for, whether they would be on the buy side or the sell side.
Again, you have a lot of choice coming out of just this watchlist and a lot of you already have the watchlist so by all means, keep using the watchlist. Another way I want you to see how you can customize is on the chart itself and that's really interesting. I'm gonna maximize this for a second.
On the chart, it's really nice because you can actually ask the chart to show you with the last trading prices and it's changing as the quote is streaming. You can see that on the right here. So it's much easier to be able to guess or know where you are when you're placing a trade.
You have the bid and ask as well on the left and you can buy or sell off of those.
On the chart settings, you can actually set more items. If you want to see the high and low prices, if you want to see the bid and ask lines, they will all come up. You can even ask that you see those actual prices as labels and that makes it much easier for you to be able to trade and go on there. Again, the name of the game here is customization so that you can get to your trade as efficiently as possible in Advanced Dashboard.
>> When that order entry ticket pops up, obviously there were some values already populated in there. Can we customize those as well?
>> Definitely. The easiest way to do it is right off that trade ticket.
We open the trade ticket. In the top right corner and Advanced Dashboard, you see this gear icon.
If I click there, it will take me right to the order defaults. Do I wanted to be a day order by default? Do I want to buy at the ask, sell at the bid or buy at the bid, sell at the ask it? What is the default quantity that I want?
What type of order do I want? A limit order, a market order, a stop order of some sort? The idea behind this is you are setting the most efficient type of trade, one that you will use most often, avoiding all of that clicking so that when you hear that Fed announcement and you want to make some trades quick, things will be set up properly and efficiently for you and that's the name of the game here in Advanced Dashboard, making you a more efficient trader.
>> Great stuff. Thanks that.
>> Thank you, Greg.
>> Ryan Massad, Senior client education instructor at TD Direct Investing.
For more educational resources, you can check out the learning centre on what broker or you can use this QR code. It will navigate to TD Direct Investing's YouTube page. Once you are there, you will find more informative videos.
It's been a very interesting month of July. We are getting ready to close the books. We have seen some pretty big rotations, sell downs and some of the big magnificent tech names as they are called, they are starting to move into other parts of the market. Christian Medeiros, VP and portfolio manager for asset allocation at TD Asset Management joined me earlier to discuss.
>> Leading into the halfway point in the year, we had tech really outperforming, the NASDAQ was at maybe 21% leading up to that point. On the other hand of the spectrum, small caps were pretty much flat over the course of the year.
But what happened is we got the June CPI released on July 10 and it came in really light. Inflation was really moderating.
That resulted in a huge change in market sentiment. What we have seen since then is that the small-cap index has been up over 11% and the NASDAQ is down 6% so what was a 20% differential between small-cap and large-cap tech has no since then become only a couple of point difference between the two so absolute a massive rotation between those two segments of the market.
>> What's behind that?
>> I think part of it is that fundamental story there which is that the small-cap companies are much more interest-rate sedatives, have more floating-rate debt.
With inflation surprising to the downside and rate cuts being priced back into the curve, investors are a lot more control holding the small-cap names. But what drove the move is investor crowding and positioning.
Now that things are looking a bit better for small caps, you might want to start closing out those underweight. If your long-term manager, maybe you can short a profitable small company all year and overweight the large-cap names. That has been a great long trait. But with that huge news catalyst that happened, investors have been shuffling their positions and many think about the size of these two markets, only a couple large-cap names, a couple of Magnificent Seven names, are the same size as the entire Russell 2000. People start to move slowly into small caps from large-caps. That resulted in a huge Grambling for the exits.
That can really push share prices aggressively.
More rate cuts being price plus investor crowding and large-cap names and a rush to the exits is really what push that rotation and what we have seen with the huge small-cap return so far in July.
>> Those macro trades, we are talking about AI there in the big tech names.
You're also noticing the yen as well and some of the trades.
>> We have seen this play out over the first half winners. If you look at the end, versus the US dollar, it appreciated quite substantially during the first half of this year due to monetary policy of Japan. Now that we have seen the CPI print and more rate cuts paste into the US, that relative rate differential is less favourable for the end and we've seen stronger depreciation in the end from 162 to 152. It's a huge move. Part of that is an unwinding. A lot of currency multi acid investors have been happy to fund their trades by being short yen and long other trades due to the positive rate differential. We have seen that unwind rapidly. At the same rate we have seen the unwind from large-cap into small-cap equities.
>> How does this set us up to the second half of the year? I feel like one of the things as we have seen this interesting trade through July where these big tech winners are starting to sell down, money moving into small caps.
Is this a summer blood?
>> When we think about small-cap outperformance, usually periods where small caps persistently a form is periods where economic growth is re-accelerating, usually from the depths of a recession and we see the huge performance of small-cap stocks. So far this year, growth is strong in the US. It has surprise to the upside.
It's not re-acceleration. We are not coming out of a recession. It's probably moderating into the second half. For small caps to massively a form of this magnitude for the rest of the year seems unlikely to us but it is quite possible that we have a broadening of equity market participation beyond just AI and Magnificent Seven set up and leading so far this year.
>> Is at one of the things you want to see in the commentary? People think that would be a healthier market. There were his concern about the concentration in the Magnificent Seven. What happens if they are not so magnificent anymore? Is that a healthier market overall?
>> I think for a lot of individual investors it is because it's dangerous to have a market that's very one directional and very crowded.
A lot of investors do away with diversification and don't hold a broad mix of equities or asset classes which would be better. So for investors I think it's a good wake-up call that you do need a broader allocation to different sectors in the market in different asset classes.
Throughout this whole period, the S&P 500 is in down much. It speaks to you having a more diversified approach to markets and everyone can't just be crowded into one trade. I think it's good wake-up call to favour diversification.
>> It's been an interesting summer so far in terms of what we have seen a market rotation. Interesting politically south of the border. We have had some big shakeups in US politics.
As we get to the summer and had into the fall, we have the November vote. What do we need to be mindful of? How much volatility might we see heading into November?
>> There is a lot to be mindful of.
We have had extreme lows for most the year.
It was 12 on the Vic's and spiked up to the high teens. Going into November, with election be more competitive, investors are going to be weighing the pros and cons of each, the different electoral outcomes possible on November 5. We have seen a lot of big events happening US politics over the last month. More will happen.
The poles will shift. Investors are going to be weighing the different policy options getting into November so I think volatility remains elevated but not catastrophically so. I think the positive aspect all this to is that now we have a more competitive election, there's a better chance that neither candidate will sweep. If neither candidate can sweep the legislature, they have restraints on the power.
>> That was Christian Medeiros, VP and portfolio manager for asset allocation with TD Asset Management.
Now, let's get you an update on the markets.
We are back in the Advanced Dashboard on the heat map. We have been on the screen on both sides of the border. Let's begin deeper. TSX 60, screening by price and volume. Not only do we have oil substantially higher today, the price of gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium also hire and it does mean broad-based strength for the TSX. We have the energy names up to the tune of about 3%, whether it's a CNQ or Suncor or Cenovus. You can see in the mining bucket with the basic materials, strong moves for a lot of the minors, whether they are more levered towards gold or copper, it all seems to be working in their favour.
Financials putting some points on the table. The percentage gains are not as big but they are the heavyweights when it comes to that TSX Composite Index topline number. You're saying I do see read on the screen. That is CAR, that would be a Canadian apartment REIT down about 1.5% right now. Other than that, it's a pretty broad-based rally on Bay Street.
South of the border ahead of the Fed, we are about an hour and 1/2 away from hearing from Jerome Powell in terms of interest-rate policy, expectation from the market today is that nothing happens today, groundwork will be late for cut as early as September so we have some interesting moves. We told you earlier that AMD was the chipmaker out with his quarterly results. They impress the street. The stock rose 4% but that got people excited again about the chipmaker's after some tough days in recent weeks so you got Nvidia, the big name of the space, a little more than 11%.
Really dominating.
I know we've been through this before, if you're watching the show for the first time, the more real estate you take up on the heat map, you are screening by volume, that means a lot of activity in Nvidia today.
Joint account can be a convenient tool between spouses or to help a senior parent manage their finances. What happens when a joint account is used as an estate planning strategy? Mindi Banach, tax and estate planner with TD Wealth join Kim Parlee to share some situations where it can make sense and where things get complicated.
>> So yes, joint accounts can't be a good estate planning tool, especially in a context with two spouses where there is no unique circumstances like a blended family or US citizenship issues. Often between two spouses, it is advised that spouses should hold accounts jointly but in other contexts like between a parent and an adult child, it's not always straightforward. There are significant risks that you do need to be concerned about. I want to mention that I understand why a lot of parents want to add their adult children on title. They are concerned as they age who was going to be able to manage their finances, who going to be able to pay those bills and they think that a joint account by adding their child on title can help with that but again, I want to talk about those risks that occur when a parent adds a child as a joint account holder. I want to mention that one of the biggest, most litigated issues in the court system are joint accounts because when things go wrong, they can go really wrong. What are the risks? Creditor issues.
If the child has financial problems, the creditors can go after the joint account with the parent. There are lots of and misuse of funds issues. Often a joint account holder can access the account and make decisions about the account, can possibly withdraw money from the account without getting the permission of the other party, the parents permission beforehand, so there could be a situation where the funds are not used in the way that the parent wanted, as well as the fact that there might be some tax implications. A parent adds a child on title, there could be a disposition on the amount that was transferred to the child which could lead to some capital gain tax liabilities.
There are a number of risks, these are just a few of them. Before parent as a child, you do want to consider these risks.
>> That's a long list. One thing I heard from many people is that when someone dies, the government has to process the estate, go through probate. There are fees attached with probate and I think some people think if I have a joint account, do I avoid the probate side of things?
>> In some circumstances, you can.
Back between two spouses, when one spouse passes away, the surviving spouse will often inherent the funds within the joint account by something called the right of survivorship and what that means is the surviving spouse is able to access to funds in that joint account by this concept of right of survivorship. They don't need to go through the probate process, they don't have to pay probate fees but it's important to note that Québec does not recognize right of survivorship and some provinces are concerned about probate fees. In other contexts such as between a parent and a child, if you create a joint account, it's not always going to avoid probate fees.
For example, even if a bank does not require the probate process in order to release funds to a surviving joint account holder like a surviving child, if the deceased parents executor it needs to probate any other asset within the estate and they have to complete the state's inventory on the probate application, and executor may still be required to reporting that joint account that parent had with the child and in that circumstance, probate fees may apply.
Are there circumstances where a joint account between a parent and child will avoid probate fees? Yes, but it typically involves evidence to prove the parents attend at the time that the parent created the joint account and one less thing that I really want to highlight here is that often times I find that one of the reasons why parents include their children on title to the real estate properties is because they think that they will avoid probate fees and I want to highlight that that is eligible for the principal residence exemption. One risk by adding your child on title is that you may now lose part of the ability to shelter the entire gain of any capital gain tax under your principal residence exemption if you add your child on title to real estate.
Again, parents really need to look into the implications of adding children on title and probate fees pale in comparison to capital gains probate rates.
>> I've only got a couple of minutes here and this could be an entire conversation unto itself. Bare trust's. There's been lots of media about what is a bare trust, what is not a bare trust. The CRA is still figuring it out. What you need to think about?
>> People should be aware of these new trust filing requirements because a lot of Canadians are unaware that when they add someone's name on title, they are arguably creating a certain type of trust that may now potentially require new trust filing obligations. The CRA has waived their trust filing obligations for the tax year 2023.
We are awaiting additional guidance for tax year 2024 and beyond but this is something that people need to be aware of because they may have new trust filing obligations.
>> High level, if you are listening and thinking, joint account is too much risk.
What are some other alternatives?
>> You could consider a power of attorney, but it's based on your unique facts and circumstances.
>> One thing to remember is to speak to somebody if you need to talk to someone.
Who, in this case can mark >> There are a number of professionals you want to speak to because they can provide you with tailored advice based on your facts and circumstances. An estate planning lawyer can advise you about the legal implications as well as the legal documents that might be necessary. An accountant can deal with and provide you with guidance around compliance and tax issues, and a financial advisor can guide you where joint accounts can help you within your overall estate plan as well as provide you with more information about the policies and procedures of a financial institution.
>> That was Mindi Banach, tax and estate planner with TD Wealth.
As always, make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions.
So what have we got on the screen right now? Less than 90 minutes away from a Fed rate decision that we are going to hear from Jerome Powell. We are going to have breaking analysis for you this afternoon.
TD Asset Management's Scott Colbourne will weigh in. Be sure to look out for that in your inbox on my broker or on our website, moneytalkgo.com.
On tomorrow's show, we would have even more reaction to the Fed, discuss what it means for the bond market. Hafiz Noordin from TD Asset Management will be our guest. You also want to take your questions about fixed income. You can get your questions ahead of time.
Just email MoneyTalkLive@TD.com.
That's all the time we have the show today.
Thanks for watching and we will see you tomorrow.
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