Brad Simpson

[music] Hello I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing. Every day I'm joined by guests from across TD, many of whom you'll only see here. We we'll take you through it's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing. Coming about today show: we will be joined by Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist at TD Wealth. He will explain why he thinks markets may have forgotten an unwritten rule when investing. Don't fight the Fed. And in today's education segment, Jason Hnatyk, Client Education Instructor at TD Direct Investing, tells us about conditional orders what they are, and how they can keep track of your investment plan. A reminder of how you can get in touch with us, just email moneytalklive@td.com or Phil at the viewer response box under the video player and WebBroker. And now your market update, 19,374, we will call that. Fairly decent for the TSX Composite Index. At Dye & Durham, maker of legal software, news out of that company. Not opposing the acquisition, some money moving in that direction. Up a little more than 5%. Equinox Gold, down to four bucks and $0.40 a share. Suspended on what Equinox is calling an illegal blockade. Let's go south of the border. Check on the S&P 500, that broader read of the American market, a modest gain. Below that 4000 mark. Not that far. Up almost 20 points or about half a percent. Let's check on the tech heavy NASDAQ and see what's happening there. About pretty much the same percentage wise. Jerome Powell giving a speech this morning, a conference, at first seemed to rattle the markets a little bit near the open but then he said pretty much what he's been saying all along. Inflation, it will be tough. American Eagle coming up with earnings disappointment. We seem to be seeing this a lot with apparel retailers. Inflation is eating up more of household budget with food. When it comes to food, that is in peril demand. And that your market update. There is an old Wall Street saying: it don't fight the Fed. Well my next guest says the recent volatility in both the bond and equity markets suggest investors have been trying to fight the Fed and they've been losing. That's been leading to some volatility out there. Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist at TD Wealth joins us today. Great to have you. >> Thanks for having me. >> We had that some are rally trying to wrap her head around the Fed telling us one thing but why is the market doing this? >> If you look at one of the most remarkable things, it's one of the most remarkable things I've ever watched. We've seen some things over the years. That is the one thing that we can really count on is this adage really does ring true. If you kind of stepped back from it, look what's happening in July and early August, treasuries and interest rates were starting to work their way down and market started to climb the way back up and if you look at the financial conditions, the stock in the bond, we saw the conditions loosening. You know, if you are a central banker, these are the three things you didn't want to see. You didn't want to see rates coming down, you didn't want to see markets going up and you shouldn't want to see through the traditional and's shadow banking system that money was easing up in there. I think a lot of that has to do with how a fool believes what they want to believe. We've got so used to and so addicted to the central bank companies coming to the rescue that now it's at the point where we just can't believe it will happen. Do they really mean it? You know, I think what we're seeing right now is… We were writing and talking about this all some are saying "this is an aberration, trust me, this won't continue." And now, you know, halfway through August gone and the light bulb is really turning on. I think that people are waking up again very clearly seeing that there is a pivot coming not any time soon. >> Was that light bulb Jackson Hole? A very stern speech. He came out and said "this, this, this." And then walked away. >> Yes in the following days, even if you go before Jackson Hole and read the newspapers and read commentary and all that, all that will be Jackson Hole being quiet and this might be one of the most insignificant Jackson Hole's we've had in a long time and I actually think there is a coordinated campaign by central bankers right now. Jerome Powell came to that. Unbelievably clear. Days following, you are seeing the Fed bank governor after Fed Bank Gov. saying the same thing. Inflation is bad. There is no pivot coming and we are going to keep fighting this thing and of course, you see 75 basis points today… Exactly Word for Word almost. The Bank of Canada today, the day before and so yeah, it's, I think it was going to be interesting to see. I'm not so sure everybody will keep on this. "Okay I've been at it for a while." If you don't need a sign that we are in a regime change, we are in a regime change and we have to start thinking about it that way. >> As you said, we are so accustomed to the central banks arriving to the rescue. Some investors could even throw a bit of a tantrum and banks would back off. That won't happen this time around. Staying the course. What is it look like in this environment for investors and for how long are we under this sort of regime of saying "we need to inflict pain. But it's all we have to do." >> I think the long story short is, the first view, when we were going, things were starting to open up again, this would take a couple of quarters and we will work our way up. I think today, it really works into two camps. I think, maybe the best way to oscillate between those two camps is a consensus view being that we will work this out in the next three or four quarters. We will have some, somehow miraculously have a mild recession. Barely move the needle and so if that were the case, kind of where equity markets and fixed income markets are now, fairly reasonable place, that rings true. The other side, the other camp would suggest that this is going to be a lot longer and harder than what was originally thought. I think that, kind of the key here for investors is that it would probably be a key theme and we will come back to it a bunch of times here today: I think we need, the answer where we are is that this is going to be up process to get this back to where we need to get it to and what's happened, what happens a lot in markets when there is lots of liquidity and lots of movement and lots of momentum, it's, what makes that market move is an awful lot of speculators and a lot of quantitative traders making things move. This is a world that you want to be in an investor today. So that changes are dynamic. This is a really tough trading market to be in. But I think more and more is that if you want to determine which economic environment you are in, I could pull up a chart for you that would make an argument whatever way you wanted to be. I can make the numbers dance anyway you want to dance because there is so much incredibly conflicting data that is out there. That conflicting data is always really hard to frame where we are in the present. This one in particular is very difficult because there really is all of this pick your data, and build a story around it. >> The situation right now is the central bankers are basically saying "take the tough medicine, we know it tastes bad and you don't like it but it's going to provide the cure. " So in the end, are we confident that the central banks will get a handle on inflation? They will bring it down? >> Yes. And I think there are couple of reasons why. I still am in the camp that we sometimes have this tendency to make things so big. You know, if you go back and you look over the last year and 1/2 and just look at money supply. Look at M2. It absolutely curves to the moon like the letter J. And you wonder how inflation happened? I think it's pretty clear. Once you looked at that, a lot of extra spending money with low interest rates and time on their hands, that the need what we saw. That economy. This means, you have to look at their are being a lot of instances that you could look at. You see manufacturers starting to slow. You see the cost of food, I know we talked a little bit about this last time but it is starting to flow through. It's still little bit of a surprise when you're at the grocery store but it's not as big of a surprise as it was because the baseline cost of food cost are coming down. You know, when you drive past a gas station and look up at the price of gas, it's come down. So we are at this number 10 and we've been saying is: "let's go from 10 to 5, that's the middle of all things, being equal, this is happening in the middle and in short we should get that." Just move it from five down into the two, three. This is where the sticky stuff is going to be that work and have to work through. And I think the key if we really want to watch on that is kind of twofold. We have the housing on one side, the labour market on the other side and those two things are going to tell you at what rate we are going to get this down to that two or three and probably a likelihood is thatthis is the story of your fourth quarter, 2023, moving into 2024 is really when you're most likely to see a lot of this get worked out. So there is a way to go. >> Great start to the program. We'll get back to questions with Chief Wealth Strategist Brad Simpson. A reminder that you can email us anytime with your questions by emailing moneytalklive@td.com were fellow that viewer response box right here on WebBroker. Let's get you updated on some of the top stories in business. Jerome Powell says the Fed will not give up on the fight against inflation until the job is done. Speaking at a conference in Washington, the chair of the US Federal Reserve says the central bank need stack now. Forthrightly, strongly as we've been doing. The remarks were of course, closely watched by investors as the market braces for another jumbo sized rate hike from the Fed this month. In Powell's words come on the same day the European central bank hiked its key rate by 75 basis points. The US labour market appears to be holding strong despite aggressive tightening from the Fed. Jobless claims fell to a three month low last week to would seasonally adjusted 222 thousand. The US labour market appears to be holding strong despite aggressive tightening from the Fed. The former head of Disney says the pandemic has left a permanent scar in the movie theatre business. Speaking at a conference in Beverly Hills, Bob Iger says he doesn't see theatre attendance returning to pre-pandemic levels. Bob Iger, who left the top job at Disney just before the COVID-19 hit North America says movie fans have grown more comfortable streaming films at home. While Bob Iger stressed the theatre business isn't dead, he said consumer habits have been forever changed by the pandemic. And now the markets, up 26 points right now for the TSX Composite Index. Still positive, a little more than 1/10 of the present. Let's check on the S&P 500, the broader American market holding in with some read on the screen. It's in negative territory. Not holding up. A little more than 1/3 of a percent. We are back now with TD Wealth cheese strategist Brad Simpson taking your questions about markets and investing. What are you expecting from the next earnings season? One of the corporate balance sheet? >> That Bob Iger comment, another really good adage is every time you hear somebody say "forever changed". Be really sceptical of that. >> Ha ha ha. >> A brilliant executive but I'm not so sure in a business likeness what might be super cool to go to the movies 12 months from now and not be cramped. >> At my house we like to go to the movies. >> Maybe watching TV on the big screen with mom and dad won't be so fun after a while. I think when we look at earnings, I think it's a really great way to look at it because I don't think things get framed quite this way enough. There are two sets of analysts: sell side analysts and by side analysts usually we talk about the earnings estimates and what it will be going forward, word talking about self side analysts. So one thing I can tell you, after 32 years of doing this is that one thing is they are usually way behind the curve on the estimates for what earnings will look like. So, we would see right now, they are probably 10 to 15% on the earnings estimates too high. So I think, by the way, I don't think this is a secret from the buy side of the market. Point capital looking at that and say "on average, if they are there we will probably see revisions downwards from this…" We are certainly seeing that from when executives are talking and trying to provide guidance going forward. They are certainly doing that. So I think that, you know, you are 200, 210, the bottom of the S&P. Looking at adding a 14, 15 times earnings, 3400, 3500 as a baseline in a scenario like that. That's probably where your earnings comes in and that's probably your floor, if you will. >> Will be tough right now, valuing investors price-to-earnings ratios, P/E ratios, really giving us the full picture? >> Yeah, I think what I like about your question is there are actually people asking and thinking about value investing again. Which means that, one of the things that this change, that we've gone through and we think about, often we talk about is how we allocate capitals. We use this philosophy called "risk, priority management." We talk about mitigating inside and outside risks. We think of investments as having factors. They have DNA. If you made up a DNA of a company, a big part of one of the main attributes is value. Do they have good earnings growth? Do they have a product or service that people want? Are they growing that earnings-per-share on a consistent basis? Is there balance sheet in good shape? We just went through a 10 year period that for that way of thinking about allocating capital, went for a 10 year bear market. It was a market the people were not allocating too. And so, the place where people were allocating to was saying "I want to buy future growth." I think you know where I'm going with that. So, I think in this short term, it would make things difficult. But if you look at an environment like this and things are defensive, this isn't a value name, it's the cousin to it. If you look at how utility companies are doing, it's because you go "well, I know the business therein. I know what the billing will look like, I know what the revenue will look like and what the dividends will look like… I can invest in allocate there." I think that if you look at it in that way, I think we are in the early stages that we need to be looking at our investment portfolios and saying "that exposure, that factor exposure, even today if it will be difficult, that over the next decade, I think you will see that there will be a renaissance for that way of allocating capital. " Because were to move into a world where easy liquidity is just not going to be as easy in the system. When you have that, that way of investing, it will become much more relevant and much better for people's portfolios. So I think that's a really important way to look at it from here. >> Fascinating stuff. Let's get to another question now. Setting off some pretty good discussions. What are you seeing in the present? The good versus the bad? >> One of the things, that I think is a medium of investment brings is this idea that to be a successful investor is to be able to make predictions in the foreseeable future. You know, I've never met anybody who can do that very well. So the real challenges just to frame where you are right now and, I think of the Summer is a good way of looking at the importance of that. You can come up with a thesis of saying "this is what's going on right now." You're just wrong on your thesis right? And then the problem with it is that if you don't think it empirically, you self sustained to yourself and say "well gosh that work this way." What's interesting is I was riding in today and the uber driver was a daytrader. We were having this huge discussion about daytrading. He was a good daytrader I can tell you he was a very smart guy and I enjoyed our conversation. But both of us came to the same agreement that the key is that if you believe your thesis and it keeps going against you and you keep doing it, it ends really badly. Right? So I think how you need to be framing today is just, first and foremost, coming to the conclusion that says that the error that we were in from spring 2008 has come to an end. You will have to look at it in terms of saying "okay, if that's true, what does that mean?" Number one is the interest rate policy will be different. We will probably not have zero interest rates for the next few years anyways. So you can kind of check off and see that and wonder how you will decisions. A world that is in constant free-trade, you can pretty comfortably say that you want to look at how you will allocate capital. That is probably not likely to go forward as it was in times past. We have way more of a… Planet where we are rolling into these two different camps. Hosing off one another. It will impact what manufacturing looks like, shipping looks like and how companies will be run and operated. Of course that is going to create greater volatility. And so, we went through a period of unbelievable abundance from commodities and unbelievable cheap labour. All of those things are no longer the table. So I think, the framing of the present is to sayif that's of the environment looks like, how would you allocate capital in that? The idea is not just being optimistic that where you are at is can it continue. I map out an environment like that in figure there is lots of great ways to allocate capital. First of all you have to decide "I'm going to reframe how I'm looking at this.". >> I want to get to some of those ideas later in the show and get back to your questions with Brad Simpson. A reminder of course that you can get in touch with us anytime by emailing MoneyTalkLive@td.com now is get for education segment of the day. There are many tools available to investors to help you achieve your goals. Including something called "conditional orders." That allows you to set order triggers for stocks and options. Here to tell us how to access them and see them on WebBroker, we have Jason Hnatyk, Client Education Instructor at TD Direct Investing. How can people get on top of their plans? >> Thanks family back Greg. Always a pleasure. You're right, conditional orders can be a very useful tool that WebBroker offers and that's regardless of your trading strategy whether you are an active trade or or are more of a buy/hold investor. Many advantages to conditional orders. Two of them that I see that, in my opinion, are key here: the first can help implement your trading plan which can be a nice thing to help you put in place to help remove emotion from your trading. Especially when we are in very volatile markets. You can kind of predefined entry signals into your trade. So WebBroker can be a big help in that part. Second of all, we know that everybody is not always plugged into WebBroker the app at all times of the day. So conditional orders can be a very useful tool to help you walk in your gains or protect your downside when you happen to be away from your computer. So let's go to WebBroker and take a look at all the different conditional orders available for the platform. Let's go under our "trading" tab at the top of the page and choose "strategies". There are four separate conditional orders available here. We have one triggers the other, one cancels the other… We are to be focusing on the first trigger. OCO trade. What's nice about this is you are entering your trade with one order which will be triggering an exit strategy which will have a profit taking order on the top of the trade as well as an order on the bottom to protect your downside of the market if it happens to move against you. I'm using the little graphic on the screen. That little icon can be very helpful in showing you what this order is all about. That will bring us to a chart really quickly so we can hopefully lock in the example a little bit. So I got an ETF up on the screen. Drawing some price lines on the chart to understand we are looking to do. The first line up on the chart, our theoretical entry point. This will be the first leg of the trade. When this order is filled, this would then share your our bracket order which has our profit-taking as well as our downside protection. Already ready to go. Let's say we want to take an exit point on a trade here if it did drop against us. Ideally it won't go down but it certainly won't be prepared for all circumstances that may arise. Then, with the first triggers, we also have 1/3 order which will then be placed at the top of the trade which will give you the ability to then lock in your gains if the market goes in the direction that you're expecting. >> All right. Some great background there. How does someone take these types of orders and then integrate them into their strategy going forward? >> Sure. Let's walk through how we can actually practically put this order on in the system. Now, putting the order in, it's probably the easy part. Really just essentially three order tickets that will flow in sequence as the events happen. But let's walk through the ticket and let's get that done. So we are going to go and click on "buy" button to get started. But keep in mind we will need to get back into our strategies section to get right back to the conditions that we talked about previously. Let's get going over to first triggers. We have our first trade, let's keep everything consistent with what we have in our chart. We will use the spy here. This is where we are putting in our body order. How many shares we are looking to buy on the trade. We can go ahead and enter our limit order, entering the most willing to pay. Three and a $95 in this case. We will put this order, good until cancelled. These types of trades are both good for Canadian and US Securities. Open for 180 days. Looking down below, we need to then enter the second portion of our trade. We go ahead and click on the second order here. This is where we would be entering the… I would like to enter my profit order first and that muscle memory knowing I'm entering it in the correct order. We will go ahead and enter the same symbol so it can pick up as we go. We will go ahead and enter our cell. Entering the same number of quantity shares. Here's what you can decide if you're looking to sell. Maybe if we are looking to go up with, say 10% or even 5%, we can go up to 410, just to pick around number and keep it simple. We like it sure that we keep our "good until" date the same to make sure it's working properly on WebBroker and in the last portion would be the "enter the bottom side " portion of our order again keeping it simple. Choosing sell, quantities etc. For simplicity's sake, we choose the stop market,Here we will put an order of 390. And that would be your first trigger in a nutshell. >> Great stuff as always Jason. Thanks for that. >> My pleasure. Thanks so much. >> Jason Hnatyk, Client Education Instructor at TD Direct Investing. Coming up we have these upcoming webinars. as always always do your own research before making any investment decisions. We'll be back with Brad Simpson but first a reminder of how you can get in touch with us: our guests are eager to hear what's on your mind if you have a question. There are two ways to get in touch with us. You can send us an email any time, just email us at moneytalklive@td.com or use the question box below your screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit "send". We'll see if one of our guests can get you the answer you need right here, and MoneyTalk Live. All right. Let's get back to your questions with Chief Wealth Strategist Brad Simpson. This one coming in hot this instant off the platform. What area of the world does your gassy value for the long term? >> A lot of Canadians are gonna like this answer… >> We do like to be focused as Canadian investors. >> I am very much a global allocator and think about, you know, the size of the Canadian economy relative to what we do and get financial services really well. We do resource companies really well. Oil and gas. Nickel and copper, potash, zinc. So if that's the case, I think you have to stop and look at it and say that there is an awful lot of attributes the things that are inside of our economy that bowed really well for the future. If you put kind of, the politics on the side of it. Ultimately, at the end of the day, we know and are comfortable with the idea that we are going to be rebuilding the infrastructure globally in industrialized states. In almost any industrialized state, you want to look at has, needs for an awful lot of restructure and rebuilding. Of course, we have this whole energy transition piece that we are going through and as I've said in writing numerous times about it, geopolitics is back on the table again. It is very much, we have the shift into a world that where we are probably more escalated in our differences that there is not just one superpower in the world anymore. So that demand on our commodities is going to be very high and then the attractiveness of our well-run conservative financial system bode well for Canada. I think then, the second part is where we are going to see value in the future is I think, increasingly, I think being globally diversified makes an awful lot of sense. But I do think, I do think that we are going to have more North American oriented portfolios as we move towards the future. You know, you were going to know where your manufacturers going to come from. You're going to know the accounting that you are being shown is going to be accurate. There are some issues there as well. There can be challenges that a road. And I also think that in areas that are feeling a lot of pressure right now, a lot of change right now, that I continue to think that both in the infrastructure buildout and on the technology side, being in private capital, private equity and not shying away from some of those more difficult narratives with modest allocations, still, you're talking about 8 to 10 your time horizons which is what I'm talking about in private equity, the capital flows into emerging markets are incredibly difficult right now. But if you can take, as a long-term investor, with the 10 year time horizon where you are allocating to something or you know we are not to be getting your money out of for 10 years, I'm not saying I'm a long-term holder. I'm not saying you have to allocate and say "I don't have access to resources of that time." I think those are building blocks of a portfolio and it makes a lot of sense. >> All right. Great stuff and great news on the Canada front here at home. I have another question coming in. You talked about sort of the planet splitting into camps. What you think of China right now? Their outlook and are there global implications? >> That is a good segue going from 10 years ago to the immediate. This is a part of the world that it's very difficult. If you trace even a lot of our conversation today, I think a lot of what's happening in the market is that, you know, the given that North America was that technology stocks would really… I think we saw that happen. The equivalent in China is real estate. Property. You know, if there would be one decision that I could easily make that I would allocate my money to if I'm a person living there as I would put it in real estate. This is no secret. But the problem with large debt is you can keep moving around and you can shift it and do all kinds of things but it's still there. And you have to work with and in some way. And so China, the real estate market continues to be a problem there. So that's kind of front and centre. The second part then, is that the key to the Chinese economy's growth. As we saw here in the spring of 2020, when you shut down because of COVID growth is hard to come by. Their policy there is really strict. Really restrictive. And it's having an impact. So it's really hard to be trying to keep and fund growth in the one side with stimulus, even if you drop interest rates. But, you're in the middle of a trade war on the other side where the most of your liquidity is in real estate sectors and it strained and things are shut down… You kind of cross all those things off and then you throw in a drought in the South and you're like "okay well, what is that due to my power system?" They have a lot of strain there on that side as well. All those pieces, demand a really cautious approach in Chinese allocation today. I think it's warranted. >> Great analysis there. We will get back to your questions with Brad Simpson and just moments time. A little reminder to always make sure you do your own research when making investment decisions and a reminder that you get in touch with us any time by emailing moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit "send". We'll see if one of our guests can get you the question answered right here on MoneyTalk Live. >> Transition to cleaner fuels are really, Anthony Okolie joins us with more. Anthony. >> TD Securities expects upward pressure in the medium term. Driving these views is 2022 tracking towards one of the best years for uranium contracting in a decade. This comes of course as the world nuclear Association annual symposium gets underway in London England this week. Historically, the symposium is generally seen as a kick off point for the uranium contracting season. Since 2010, about 53% on average of contacting volumes have been concluded over the period from August to December. Now, TD Securities, in the report, they point to some data by a company that publishes data market research analysis on nuclear industry. They report that total return uranium contract volumes is expected to reach the third highest volume since 2010. Now UXC notes by its estimates, TD Securities expects to longer-term uranium contracting as supplies get tighter. With expected… TD Securities says that they could be renewed upward pressure on uranium in the final months of 2022. > Anthony, when it comes to these nuclear fuel supply chains in Europe in particular what is been the impact of the Russian/Ukraine crisis. > Russia has highlighted the energy and security in some places particularly in Europe. So TD Securities expects that utilities will continue the very difficult process of de-risking and moving their supply chains away. >> Thanks again Anthony. >> Thank you. > A check on the market. Halfway from the lunchtime trading session. Let's start here at home on Bay Street with the TSX Composite Index. Right now off the highs from the start of the show. Still hanging in positive territory. 19,000… 64 points on the screen for the TSX about 1/3 of a percent. Let's check on some of the names making moves today. We have First Quantum to the upside there, seeing some strength in the financial but also some of the materials in mining names. Noticing earlier some weakness in some of the longer plays. Interfor… Let's check in the S&P 500, making the news and moves even through our program right now, a bit of downside now. Down a pretty modest eight points at this moment, about 1/5 of a percent. So it's a choppy ride from time to time. Even from minute to minute. Let's check in on the tech heavy NASDAQ. Down and starting to accelerate the downside 85 points or about three quarters of a percent. SNAP, earlier in the day was making some gains. 12 bucks and $0.44, up 8 1/2%. Some unconfirmed reports whirling around that now that SNAP CEO is aiming to grow sales by 20% next year. We are now back with Brad Simpson, taking your questions about what's going on there in the markets. Here is an interesting one, considering where we were earlier in the year. Where do you see the energy sector going? >> Wow. Talk about a volatile market. On the one side, you have this paper traded side of the market which is incredibly volatile and then on the other side, really, just this clear and apparent long-term demand there. The starting point is, you know, let's start just looking at oil. 80, $90 a barrel… What is happened and how to get there? I think you could, first and foremost see equity markets, credit markets… Each one of them you can kind of parts through and get with the view is on where the economy is going to go. And so, when you look at the oil market right now, it would be saying that you are maybe not a hard landing or soft landing but the economy is going to get more difficult which really should slow demand. And I think that's why we are seeing the price and that were seen today. The other side of the coin to that, the question of where do you see value, one of the things is that you have oil names, because of the underlying, where they get their revenue is value based but it is cyclical. I think you could pretty confidently have oil exposure and oil companies exposure in your portfolios and look at the strength of the balance sheets and look at the cash flow that they are generating and, you know, the bottom line is that there is not a lot of more supply coming anywhere. There is not a lot more supply coming even if you wanted to create it. It takes a long time to build that even if you want to create it. So that is probably the starting point. The second one, is of course, that leads into gas and what we are really watching is we know the impact of natural gas in Europe and in particular natural gas on Germany. Germany of course the manufacturing hub and German companies are, you know, they run on natural gas and they run on Russian natural gas. So with the shutting down of the pipeline for them to be able to get that, today, if we look at gas storage levels, it's actually fairly historically on average of where they could be. So that's a positive. But all it would take is even a moderate, cold cold winter, there will be a lot of pain. And of course there would be a lot of support for natural gas. Even a moderate winter, there would be a lot of pain but it will be as much pain and so there will be rationing and there will be having to work with natural gas but it's a moderate to what we are hoping for right now is a warm winter. A warm winter than the likelihood of Europe and particularly Germany will be able to get through that being a lot better. But even if we do get through this side, I'm looking at, again, it's kind of back to the Canadian story here, is that the demands on natural gas, the demands on liquid natural gas are really high and even if we get through this winter, the next winter they will be really high too. They will be really high the next one as well. So these areas in the market on the commodity are really, really volatile in their areas where I think people, in short term could do a lot of damage to themselves. If you, instead, look at it as an investment and hold it as an investor and think about what you own and you own it and you say "I'm an owner. ", I think in medium and long term, you will do really well. >> Great to have you here. We could go for two hours. The clock is against us. A pleasure having you. I hope you come back soon. >> Great to be here. > That was Brad Simpson Chief Wealth Strategist at TD Wealth. On Monday, we will speak with Alex Gorowicz I TD Asset Management. A reminder that you can get your questions in any time by emailing MoneyTalk Live ATD.com. That's all the time we have for today. See you tomorrow. [music]