Bart Melek

[music] Hello I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk Live, brought to you by TD Direct Investing. every day I'll be joined by guests from across TD many of whom you will only see here. We we'll take you through it's moving the markets and answer your questions about investing. we will be joined by Bart Melek head of TD Securities… And in today's WebBroker segment, Jason Hnatyk will take us through how you can use stop orders on the platform. You can email us any time by emailing moneytalklive@td.com or fill out the your response box. Before we get to our guests today let's get you an update. Frankly a historic turnaround in the trade yesterday. Only half a dozen times or so as an example of the S&P 500 as we have seen a reversal to that magnitude in one session. We do have a bit of weakness in the trade today on this last trading day of the week. 18,419, we will call that a little more than a full percent. We are seeing some pressure from crude right now. The American benchmark, West Texas intermediate down a little less than 3%. About 86 bucks and change a barrel. Seeing some weakness in the mining sector. Yamana down, Shopify starting to lose that battle a bit but still in positive territory. , Only up about 1% at the moment. South of the border, let's check in the S&P 500 and that historic rally of yesterday. Dan with 58 points and one and 1/2% of that broader read in the American market. The tech heavy NASDAQ, seeing some mega Tech names today under pressure. Down to the tune of almost 200 point deficit. Other platforms, META Platforms feeling some pressure. The company we used to know as Facebook, hundred 27 bucks and change now down to percent in aftermarket update. It's been a choppy ride for oil despite a recent production cut from OPEC and its allies. But as global supply remains tight, TD Securities has boosted its price forecast for crude. Joining us now with more as Bart Melek, Head of Commodities Strategy with TD Securities. >> It's fantastic being here. Yes we have upgraded the oil outlook. It's just too bad that the market has not been cooperating. A day after we have moved our forecast higher. We do like the oil market going into the latter part of the year. And as we approach 2023. We think that the supply and demand fundamentals will get significantly tighter mainly because we are expecting OPEC to cut 1.1 million barrels of actual production. Yes I know, everyone is talking about 2 million production. But that is referring to the quota. And a lot of OPEC producers have been under producing. So the actual decline will be about 1.1 million barrels. >> Now, obviously in the short-term, pretty much every asset class is been pretty volatile this year. Oil doesn't escape that. Other concerns about what the global economy looks like next year. Is that where we get the push pull here in terms of: okay we might have some production by choice but at the same time what will demand look like in 2023? >> Demand is the big unknown of course. But there are other very technical factors that are preventing traders and portfolio managers from acquiring long positions at the time. Number one, volatility has exploded to the upside as the Federal Reserve is committing itself to fairly aggressive tightening. We are seeing problems in the… Markets so that is creating volatility in the fixed income space. Yields are moving higher all over the place and there is the real fear that we could have a very deep recession that could result in outside declines in oil consumption. So taken altogether the lack of risk appetite, an awful lot of volatility and uncertainty, what he is really, at this point, committed and going along. What is a volatile and historically risky asset class like oil. >> No on top of pure supply, pure demand concerns, you also have butting heads here between Saudi Arabia and the United States. It appears, from some of the messages from the Biden administration as they were not too pleased with this announced production cut at this particular time. >> Certainly, Saudi Arabia and OPEC in general and OPEC plus now that the Russians have been active with this producer group for a while now, has always said that they are trying to manage supply with demand. When you look at the supply demand fundamentals, as they are now, it's probably incorrect to say that there is an oversupply of oil. We haven't really seen significant deterioration on the demand side. What is a little unusual for OPEC, at this stage, is they are actually acting proactively ahead of any potential declines in demand. As we have seen over the last few days, OPEC being one of them, they have downgraded their expectations on demand for 2023. Energy information agency has as well. I think a lot of followers of this marketable moderate their demand. This could put us into a deficit situation next year. Now, the risk is we could be wrong and things could be a total disaster on the economic front and there won't be a tightening of markets. But that is precisely the reason that risk markets aren't really willing to go along quite yet. today we have a lack of risk appetite broadly. I think that's the main mover of crude markets for now. Liquidity issues, volatility and then just a version to risk broadly. We think fundamentals will tighten up in OPEC will stay true to its word and make the cuts. We don't expect a total route in demand next year. In fact, we don't see a decline at all. We are still seeing growth of well over 1. 4, 1.5 million barrels per day. That's below consensus. There are some who are much more negative and until such timeas these uncertainties get settled I don't think we will see big moves to the upside in oil. That's why in the report we said we don't see a three figure price. You don't see crude going into the hundred dollar price range because of that uncertainty. We think that is a risk later on in the year. Once the Fed ultimately pivots and we stop worrying about a decline in the economy and start thinking about a recovery. Premature for that now. I guess we are hoping that our forecast is right. >> When it comes to China, the zero COVID policy, how much of a wildcard is that? For some reason I think you could make a case that China could get very hungry for a lot of commodities the world has to sell including oil. >> That has been a bit of a problem for us. I'm sure other forecasters as well. We certainly expected and easing up of this lockdown sooner rather than later. I think it was yesterday where, again, we are hearing major constraints are high, again entertaining some sort of a lockdown. Well, China is very much underperforming expectations in terms of economic growth. That means that the energy consumption growth is probably knocking to materialize anywhere near to the extent that we thought. Asia, including China is probably responsible for 1.1 million barrels or so, even slightly less, slightly more of next year's growth. Consensus is around 2 million are under. If that doesn't happen, we could get significantly slower demand. And that is what OPEC is reacting to. OPEC has had a gripe with the market for a while now. Saying that the market has discounted oil way ahead of the deterioration of the fundamentals. Mainly in the future markets. Speculative traders and money managers taking bets off and funds flowing away from that asset class. You know, they probably have a point that we saw future markets react ahead. But on the other hand, that is the very nature of future markets. They look into the future. As do most traders and managers in right now, I think all of us are worried about demand and with that will look like. OPEC is taking that to heart and signalling to the market that they are unwilling to see significant surpluses built. I think, do we have these deficits that bring prices to high and there is an imbalance? I suspect OPEC will reverse itself as needed. Right now they are taking pre-active action to signal to the market that they will not allow that imbalance to continue and that of course meansthat they are unlikely to allow a massive decline in prices as well. > Great insights from Bart as always. We will get to your questions about commodities with Bart Melek in just a moment's time. A reminder of course the you can get in touch with us anytime at MoneyTalk Live by emailing moneytalklive@td.com or filling out the response box right here on WebBroker. right now let's get you updated on top stories in business and how the markets are trading. The big Wall Street banks are kicking off earnings season with some mixed results. J.P. Morgan in a earnings beat has a higher interest rates boosted net interest income at the bank. That said, CEO Jamie Dimon warned investors of significant headwinds ahead of the broader economy, most notably high inflation. Rival Morgan Stanley missed the streets expectations with investment banking operations showing weakness in its latest quarter. Britain has a new Finance Minister following weeks of turmoil sparked by an economic package that rattled investors. Prime Minister Liz Truss has fired Kwasi Kwar-Teng after less than six weeks in the position. And Liz Truss is scraping several taxcutting policies that sparked considerable market turbulence. Former health and health Sec. Jeremy Hunt has been named Britain's new Finance Minister. It's a mega deal in the US grocery space Kroger. Agreeing to buy rival Albertsons in a deal valued most Lee at $25 billion. While both companies have endorsed the agreement it still requires regulatory approvals. If successful the deal would help Kroger cemented its place as the country's second-largest grocer behind Walmart. And here's on the benchmark index in Canada's trading. South of the border, much of the same story. Some of the key sectors, you have that brought a read of the American market, the S&P 500 3600 right now down almost 2%. We are back now with Bart Melek taking your questions about commodities. So let's get to them. The first off the platform: can we get Bart's outlook for aluminum? >> Well aluminum is going to be very tricky. Particularly now since the White House is suggesting that there may be some sort of a sanctioned regime on Russian metal, Russia is one of the largest producers. Russo is one of the largest companies that supplies aluminum to the market. Most often to the LME. … We are positive that aluminum, we think it will hold at current levels may be a little higher over the next couple of quarters. Just to go back to the experience of the trump administration on April 2018, when he imposed similar types of sanctions against Russo officials, we have seen a very large, I think it was 37% in a period of 12 days or so. Something like that could happen but, you know, we are forecasters. We have a crystal ball that is quite murky in terms of assessing what political actions will be taken against what producer at what time in terms of sanctions. But I think, you know, that aside, there is a risk premium on aluminum right now. And I think until the question of the sanctions gets settled a little bit, that will remain in place. On another point, aluminum is the most energy intensive metal. You need an awful lot of electricity to produce aluminum. As we know, there is a natural gas crisis in Europe because of the Russia/Ukraine war. North Stream is not delivering natural gas in a meaningful way following the, I don't know if it is sabotage or an accident but we know it is not. That means electricity costs are high. It also means that LNG prices around the world, not only a European problem, are elevated. That means prices around the world, in terms of energy, have been elevated. Just by virtue of that, aluminum should do better than the rest of the base metals. We still think they might be seeing downward pressure because of demand because of global economies. >> It means a lot of things aluminum goes into a lot of things doesn't it? > It goes into a lot of things and it's considered to be one of the ESG metals at least for automotive's, never mind the massive amounts of energy, electricity, powered by cold generation that is used. But aside from that, it is one of the metals that you would want to use to lighten up vehicles to reduce fuel consumption. It is used in larger thick grade electrical wiring's for transmission. So there are a lot of uses for air conditioners, heat exchangers… A myriad of aluminum cans of course. Aluminum foil… A lot of consumer and industrial goods use aluminum as an input. > Fascinating stuff. Let's get to another question off the platform. A viewer wants your take on copper. >> I've said this even on the show. I like copper quite a lot. I just don't like it right now. Again, we have taken a short position on copper. We think that around 7200. . . . There might be some downward pressure after that. The reason we are saying is because with China, who consumes about half of all the copper in the world, given the very high probability we will get the Fed funds up to is much as 5%, that's what the market is currently discounting, 4.98, something like that, we are expecting a slowdown in industrial activity broadly. A slowdown in consumer activity. A slowdown in construction. Those industries, all traditionally use the metal as an input. I do hear a lot of arguments that copper will be used to move the world to a carbon neutral stance. Very important for electricity. For the electrical motors, EV uses, to step down transformers to wiring, for piping, for a lot of construction uses… So a lot of uses. It just so happens that all those industries are very, very interest rate elastic. Meaning as interest rates go up they tend to slow down. So we could see, you know, certainly this year into next year, for the next six months to 12 months, copper demand really really disappear. If China continues to disappoint in the way it has, we think we are not going to see growth rates from China that we have been used to for the last few decades, then we are going to get a freeing up of these tight market conditions, may be de-stocking in parts of the world and maybe a bit of a surplus in 2023. Mining operations will likely produce more concentrate and we expect the ill effects of natural gas problem in Europe to moderate as we move into the latter part of 2023. After the winter. That means reopening of some smelters so we could see a situation where the demand-side is easing or the demand is weakening and supplying starts recovering at a better clip. That's not a good recipe for higher prices. After that, I think after 2024 and 2025, I think these markets will inflect higher and we could expect prices to do better. I think copper probably does well beyond 25, 2025 and beyond. As we really don't see an awful lot of investment in new capacity and we expect demand to move. The USS passed legislation that is actively encouraging and subsidizing electric vehicles. It will take time for the to fully kick in. But once the US and the rest of the world really go full tilt into electrifying the economy, copper is one of the metals you can't really substitute away from too much. And it should do well. But for now, I think it's still at risk of dropping clenches to give the audience a bit of a historical reference, during a recession, you could easily expect 40 to 60% peak decline in copper prices. The current supply constraints across all commodities and logistics and supply chains globally have actually made it perform better than we would expect during a tightening cycle that now people fear could morph into a recession. >> All right. A great take and reminder at home to do your own research before making investment decisions. We will be right back with Bart Melek in a moment's time and a reminder that you can get in touch with us anytime by emailing MoneyTalkLive@td.com. Now let's get to our educational segment of the day. Stop orders can be a very useful type for investors looking to manage risk on their portfolios. There are many ways you can use a stop order and we will be focusing on using stop orders today. It can be used in places where you are looking to either lock in your gains or limit your losses. A great opportunity for investing to place a trade and know they have an exit strategy even if they are not with the computer. Let's move in the charts to get a visual example of what we are talking about. On the chart here you will see there is a blue line. This is representing a purchase price at approximately $50 that I have entered into this trade. Now if I'm thinking about using an investment plan which is a great opportunity for me to automate the trade, I will take maybe a bit of motion out of the trade in the most I'm willing to lose on this particular position is five dollars. So if we go ahead and maybe draw another line at the five dollar mark below, approximately $45, we are putting another line of the chart. With what we are showing you, wait the line did not draw let's get that done. Okay I have my line in my chart. Now what this says is if the stop does pull back from the point at which it is now, then I will have an order in place to sell my shares and take me out. Sure, this is not the expected or hoped outcome we are looking to get out of this trade but we are taking a very practical approach. We are trying to limit the losses if it does go down further then when we are hoping to have the stock retreat below. Additionally a stock can help us lock in our gains. I will move this stock line down to a much lower point in the chart. Maybe we are lucky enough to bind to the stock in a most lower price. The pandemic crash in 2020… The same would hold true if we are placing an order to sell below the market. In this case, we are staying at the if the stock does retreat any further, I want to go ahead and exit my trade so I don't get back some of my hard-earned gains that I've already experienced on the stock. So I will lock in those gains and walk away with the profit and not allow somebody else to do the same. Now, another concept that's key to understand for investors when we are talking about stop orders is that we want to make sure that we don't set them too close to the present market as we are looking at the chart, we can see that if we are going to upper downed stocks trend stocks are not continuously moving in one direction. They will go up and down as we go. The same would hold true for any given day that we are trading in the market. There's going to be arranged that the stock will trade in at a high low point for that given day. So understanding what that stock is doing and how high or low on average will get you it can be a very useful piece of information to know. In WebBroker, under the lower indicator, a study is there that tells us just that. That is averaged through range. If we add that to our chart we see it is below our candlesticks. We can see that this line is telling us on average what is the range that the stock is trading at based on the last 14 days. If you would like to edit this study, you absolutely can go ahead and click on the name of the study on the left-hand side in the period in which the average is calculated. And it will give you whatever description so you know exactly what the studies trying to tell you. But in a nutshell, this is telling us that the stock presently has an average range during this time period of a dollar 34. So if we are setting our prices at a buck 34, ultimately at the end of the day you'd be setting or stop orders based on the risk that you're willing to take. So let's go ahead and place our trade so we can put the theory to practice here. I will go ahead and hit "sell" at the top here on our next to our quote. This will bring up our order ticket. We will bring up our quantity. Underpriced type, we will get access to changing our different orders. Choosing different orders. I will go ahead and choose "stop market" for this example. You will notice there is a trigger price field now appearing on our screen. This is the price at which you want to order to trigger or activate it so you will then sell and send the order to the market as a market order. So in our example that we had in our chart, we were saying we wanted to exit our trade at the stock and traded down to $45. If that happens, this will trigger an activated order and send it to trade out of our 100 shares of this particular company that we own. You also have the ability to change your "good until" status. Typically folks will choose the "good till cancelled" option. Open for 90 days and for US listed Securities, your order will be open to keep you protected for 180 days. As you can see, a stop order can be a very effective order type for you to master and using your trading. >> Our thanks to Jason Hnatyk, Client Education Instructor at TD Direct Investing. Make sure to check out the learning centre in WebBroker for more educational videos, live interactive master classes and upcoming webinars. Before we get back to your questions about commodities for Bart Melek, a reminder of how you can get in touch with us. Do you have a question about investing, or what is driving the markets? Our guests are eager to answer your questions so send them to us here at MoneyTalk Live. You can send your questions two ways: you can send us an email any time at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box at the bottom screen right here on WebBroker just type your question and hit "send". We will see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. We are back now with Bart Melek taking your questions about commodities. This one coming in off the platform. What's the status of the Iran nuclear deal and how will that impact oil production and prices? >> Will that is always been a challenge to try to predict how the United States and Iran get along. It is my understanding right now that there is no imminent negotiations that will negotiate into an imminent deal. If they do come to some sort of an agreement, where I ran is again allowed to participate fully in global oil markets, that would serve as a significant downside for oil. For one, they have between 60 to 100 million barrels of ready available product plan crude that can be deployed to global markets almost immediately. On the other hand, on the production side of the equation, within months, a month or two, they could easily increase production by 200,000 barrels per day. Within 12 months they can deploy 800 to 1 million barrels of extra supply into world markets. So all things being equal, if Iran comes to an accord with P5 plus one, that would very much help to relieve a lot of the pressure. Now, that doesn't mean that prices collapse. Because as we've seen, OPEC acts just recently, last Wednesday, they would adjust their supply to Iran. Iran is included and has been traditionally part of OPEC. They would just reassert their traditional pre-sanctioned place in it. What it would do you is it would make more global inventories available and more capacity which would reduce some of the risk premium that we've seen in oil markets over the last year or so. >> Very interesting breakdown on that. Let's get to another question. What's the outlook on Palladium given the movement to battery-powered electric vehicles? Of course we talk about so many things that the electric vehicles will need. Do they need Palladium? >> That is one that may not benefit so much from a move to electrification. At least not so much with the current technology. Just for those who may not know, the audience, Palladium is very much a catalyst metal, an industrial precious metal whose sort of function in life is to be used as an auto catalyst to reduce pollution. So it is a green metal in many ways. For the next few years, it will, I think, do okay as we have the recovery happening. But in the immediate future, just like all other industrial metals, it's probably going to be under selling pressure. We have a shortage globally for automotive production. Higher interest rates and demand is very sensitive to interest rates, lease rates go higher, financing goes higher. We still think it will be probably downside pressure for the next quarter to. A bit of a recovery period may be into, you know, a little higher than we are now. Well into the over 2000 or so. But long term, EZ's don't really use catalysts by definition. So that might erode demand over the longer term. That will depend. It will depend on how quickly we transition into EV's. But there's a bright spot here. It has a very efficient catalyst and if the hydrogen economy really takes off, right now, we use platinum more for the dialysis, using electricity to extract hydrogen from water. And we use proton membrane type of set ups and platinum as a catalyst. My understanding is there is development in resurgence going on where we can use other platinum group metals like Palladium. So it might be rough in the medium to longer-term but over the very long term, we could very well see Palladium along with platinum be used in the transition into hydrogen over the long run. So these metals are multifunctional and just because there is maybe a dark cloud now, doesn't mean that it stays there. >> Fascinating stuff. We will get back to your questions with Bart Melek on commodities and just a moment. As always make sure you do your own research before making any investment decisions. A reminder of course he can get in touch with us anytime. Do you have a question about investing, or what is driving the markets? Our guests are eager to answer your questions so send them to us here at MoneyTalk Live. You can send your questions two ways: you can send us an email any time at moneytalklive@td.com or you can use the question box at the bottom screen right here on WebBroker just type your question and hit "send". We will see if one of our guests can get you the answer right here at MoneyTalk Live. With central banks delivering so many supersized rate hikes, there is definitely an impact on the housing market. The Canadian housing market no different. Our Anthony Okolie taking a look at the latest numbers and breaking them down for us. >> Some sellers on the sideline. Fell nearly 4% in September. That reverses the August of 4%. Big Canadian cities like Vancouver, Calgary, Montréal and the greater Toronto area dragging down the overall national numbers. I want to identify some key trends the TD economics highlighted in the report. New listings actually dropped for the third straight month. TD economics says that this indicates the weakening economy higher interest rates, it has not really led to a meaningful boost in overall housing supply. Instead, the week housing price environment is keeping potential sellers on the sidelines. Meanwhile, we take a look at Canadian home prices, actual prices, they were down month over month, year-over-year. Down more than 6%. Price increases we are seeing in Alberta, New Brunswick, PI… The steepest monthly declines in prices were in Saskatchewan, Ontario and Québec. Now, when we look at the whole price index which is a more lifelike measure, it was down 1.4% month over month. TD economics actually takes a look at home prices in single detached homes, compared to apartment prices. They noted that single-family homes and apartment prices declined in September. Year-over-year however, prices were going faster for apartments and detached homes. They were up 9%. That is down from the peak in March where they were up about 26%. TD economics says that the Bank of Canada is set to take the pause rate even higher and that will have more downward pressure on home prices in home sales going forward. Greg? >> Let's talk about that. TD economics putting a number on it in terms of the fact of the market is clearly anticipating more rate hikes from her central bank. Was I do for sales and prices question mark >> You know, where the dust settles, TD economics says the Canadian home sales will decline with 35% from peak to trial. That's from Q1 of this year to Q1 of 2023. Home prices, they expected to drop about 20% due to the same. Now in terms of provinces, they think that the biggest falls will be BC in Ontario where affordability has deteriorated quite a bit. But, in terms of prairies, Newfoundland and Labrador, they believe that those homes, the prices will hold a much better there because they have some of the best affordability in the country. >> Interesting stuff as always. Thanks Anthony. > My pleasure. >> MoneyTalk Live Anthony Okolie. Let's check on the market now. The big reversal from yesterday which has been by market historians historic as they would say. A turnaround of magnitude that we saw on Bay Street and Wall Street. We are giving some back today. 18,004 a and 30 of the TSX opposite index. 183 points. About a percent. The price of crude is waiting on the trade. Let's take a look at Cameco. Under some pressure today, down a little less than 4%. Athabasca oil also one of the pain points in the trade. now down to the tune of about 2%. South of the border, when a check in the S&P 500. A 61 point deficit after today's yesterday's big reversal. Into the close, we are down more than 1.7% right now. The tech heavy NASDAQ, let's see how it's bearing compared to the broader market. We are seeing some of the pressure in the big tech names today. NASDAQ down a little more. Let's check in on Intel. 26, 14. Intel down to percent. We are back now with Bart Melek from TD Securities. Talking commodities. Here's the big one: which of you on gold right now? >> Ha ha. We have been short gold as well. Our target price is 15, 80 I believe. Right now I think there will be downward pressure here again. Very robust monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world. It is my view that the big culprit here, real interest rates are expected to move higher. Particularly on the short end of the curve. As inflation was going higher and fed funds were not going really up. Real interest rates were going down. Which typically helps. We will see an acceleration of real interest rate increases. We expect inflation to start moderating. You would not have known it based on yesterday's number. The core moved higher and we've had a pretty high headline inflation. But ultimately, as these policies tighten up, we will see moderation and inflation. There is less pressure from commodities and we are seeing improvement in logistics and supply chains broadly. As the economy slows down, around the world, and the short end of the curve starts moving higher, on the very short end of the fed funds, inflation in Florida that is going to be an accelerated increase in real rates from extremely low levels to still low levels. That means that funding costs will start rising. Is something we often don't talk about, the whole tightening of monetary policy. Less risk appetite. Less capital being deployed broadly and volatility. Basically that means the so-called lease rates or deposit rates for gold should move higher. That ultimately means that large holders like massive institutions like central banks who have literally trillions of dollars available may want to start swapping this stuff out to get a yield. That can see metal being available and we are also seeing a deterioration in investor demand for gold. As these interest rates rise and opportunity costs move higher where you can get upwards of 800 basis points on some credit products. Now, that is a problem for gold. But we don't think that's a problem it's going to stick around forever. We are ultimately thinking that gold will again, rebalance to the 1800s when we hit the lows, may be higher. The reason for that is we do think that the current Federal Reserve is fighting inflation but they have a dual mandate. They want to see the best employment in a non-inflationary way they can. I think, over the long run, once this emergency inflation is gone, they will pivot and pivot rather quickly. Probably not until late next year but probably these real interest rates will stay lower than you would have expected to see in previous cycles. We will still get may be above target inflation for a considerable time and really no big impetus for the central bank to keep the economy, you know, in a restrictive mode for too long. That could be a very good story for gold in the long term. >> Fascinating stuff. We run out of time to take your questions but before we go you mentioned to us that after maybe even today, you were jumping on a plane to a bunch of conferences in Europe. What are you expecting to hear there? >> Yes I will be in Lisbon tomorrow. London bullion market. Not sure how many people with well over a thousand traders. it will be interesting to talk to everyone from industrialists to miners about silver and gold and platinum in the economy. I expect people to be saying the same things that we are talking about. High interest rates and how that will impact and I expect people to be optimistic beyond this part of the cycle. I think we are all going to be much happier about where the commodities and precious metals in particular are going once we've bottomed and we start talking about easing monetary policy. That's not quite yet and then I'm off to London for LME week which is London metal exchange week. There will be talking to clients, I'll be speaking to some of our TD clients in both places and again, same thing there. It's going to be interesting to hear people share their views on what is happening with base metals. Where China's going… How the sanctions against Russia are going to unfold. If they are going to unfold. So a lot of very interesting things coming up. >> And you know for sure, when you get back from that trip we will be calling you to come back to the program to share those insights. Bart always nice having you here safe travels my friend. >> Thank you so much. >> That was Bart Melek head of TD Securities. Stay tuned, Monday we will take your questions about ESG's and you can send your questions by emailing moneytalklive@td.com. That's all the time we have show today. Thanks for watching and thanks for watching all week. We will see you on Monday. [music]