Alexandra Gorewicz

[music] >>hello, I'm Greg Bonnell and welcome to MoneyTalk live branch by TD direct investing. Every daily job I guess from across TD many of whom you only see here. We'll take it was moving the markets and answer questions about investing. Coming up on today's show, will be joined by TD asset management's Alex Gorewicz and talk about fixed income and look at the central banks rate hike cycle could be drawn closer to an end. And on today's WebBroker education segment Jason Natyk will be showing us through the platform. Here's how you can get in touch with us, IMO MoneyTalk live@teevee.com or both of your response box right under the video player here in WebBroker. In taking you to our guest of the day, but take you to the market action looking at the TSX constant index and lost my checked it was modestly in positive territory and that is the definition of modest, two ticks at 20,223 and downward pressure on crude oil and some questions around these Russian caps and with a could ultimately mean for the market. A lot of questions I haven't really been answered for energy investors. Another down day for crude that is way more broadly on the TSX. Brookfield asset management was one of the names on the outside earlier and hang out there pretty modestly at 60 bucks and $0.21 or less than a full percent. Is also a weakness in the mining names today as well, Kinross down to the tune of five bucks and $0.55 a share and south of the border, this is a shortened trade, of course the American thanks giving holiday, that will be tomorrow but in about two hours time as well, the market is just waiting for that to see if there any more tea leaves that we can read about from the world's most powerful central banks, the S&P 500 up a very modest 12 ticks. Checking on tech heavy NASDAQ and seeing how despairing, under three points to the upside and a bit of the tech names almost a full percent. I will check in on Chevron, as he said the American banks, under three dollars and change. And that is your market update. It is been a tough year for investors. Not many places to write of volatility. But as central banks get closer to the end of this rate hike cycle, with the opportunities in fixed income? And more in this we are joined by Alex Gorewicz at TS and management. Always a pleasure to have you on the show. >> Great to be here. >> So were by the 2022 and December is just around the corner, when we think of all the turmoil of the year. The central bank resized rate hikes and one would hope that we are closer to the end and we were and what is mean for fixed income in 2023? >>hopefully more stability. And we expect central banks to deliver. And the reason able to slow down their pace of rate hikes is because hopefully this is all around the corner and inflation will be key to watch. Especially the first quarter or first half of the year, that is only seen the biggest gains in normalization and inflation and other words, coming back down toward 2%. We will see more normalization and that enables bonds to behave more bond alike. More like bonds. That's right. It's been a very difficult year for all asset classes as you alluded to end it is because inflation has been not just high, but arising. And that is a bad environment for bonds. That is not what we expect for next year. >> Can we expect bonds to be more like bonds of next year to make our way through inflation and these rate hikes? Can we have more faith again in this in the portfolio? In times of turmoil, movement equities are looking great, but with bonds in my portfolio maybe there's some safety or bit of a haven. It was a haven this year because of the mechanics why the market was selling off. >> But there's an element of that safety component, bonds tend to do the well economy slowing down and inflation is not a problem. The fact that inflation was a problem this year and nothing worked, for us, it meant that eventually inflation would be to a slowdown in growth. Consumption would have to start slowing down as people would ration their budgets toward the necessities not been nice to haves and we are starting to see evidence of that happening as we look at the quarter over quarter trend in consumption this year in the US which is arguably the most resilient economy at the moment. We are seeing that downward trajectory and consumption and that tells us that partially that inflation has not been kind to the economy, but looking forward its companies will struggle how to manage those costs that they have incurred. It will likely mean slower economic growth and that is usually when bonds do well. If you couple slower economic growth was less inflation problems for 2023, it should mean that bonds can have that safety feature again in a 6040 portfolio. >> And we are also seeing some they were not accustomed to seeing which is yield and fairly substantial yield compared to what would be used to for a good many years. >> That's right, talking about bonds being the safety components you think interest rates will go down and so bond prices will go up. In other words, having positive returns for fixed income. Even if that doesn't happen, let's say we avoid a recession and things move sideways in inflation just comes down, and instability in interest rates. It means we will see interest rates move materially in one direction or another. So, yield is just a proxy to the income that you're getting from the asset class and you know, if you look at a typical Canadian a bond fund, it is about 5% yield. It is good income that we've not been accustomed to for a decade plus. >> What could knock us off track for a 2023 that was more favourable for fixed income than it was this year? It is strange, the mechanics here, the central banks and trying to slow the economy and I think the labour market is too hot and they want see a bit of pain out there and how does pain translate to the fixed income portfolio? >> Part of the challenge right now is only tech talk with each structure for inflation going down, the level still matters in the level is still substantially higher at least at this time then where central banks are targeting for inflation to be, which is let's say, 2%. The fact that inflation is above that Target, means that central banks can cut interest rates and so if you look at shorter dated bonds, less a 0 to 5 years, those yields will likely stay high but if we get a deeper recession, longer dated interest rates or longer dated bonds respond more to a mix of both monetary policy as well as economic development. So those interest rates will likely come down. And we've seen a glimpse of that over the last month or so and central banks have started slowing the pace of their rate hikes. The front end of yield curves have remained a sticky high in terms of interest rates but longer dated interest rates are responding to economic data coming in which is pointing toward a slowing in the coming quarters. Interest rates come down on the longer end of the yield curve. >>and that is just the endpoint of this hiking cycle. We have any idea going forward what is normal interest rates or will ever be such a thing again? >> This part is harder and the reason why this is harder to gauge is that there are number of factors at the moment that suggest that inflation, it could normalize, but it could normalize to a level that is higher than what we have been used to at least before the pandemic. If we look at various geopolitical factors, if we look at the policy response from individual governments after the pandemic and all of the global supply chain disruptions, we are seeing signs that governments want to build what they call resilience in their economies and making sure that we have key industries or certain key goods and services that are produced locally that will require a lot of investment. An investment will very likely mean that prices could be stickier or higher in the long run. And when I say long run, it could be an orbiting one or two years looking out. Even if inflation is expected to normalize in the coming quarters does come down, the question is does come down to 2% what is a come down to something a little bit higher. At the moment, the evidence is pointing towards a little bit higher. If that is the case, it means sure, interest rates can normalize and if we don't stay at four or 5% forever, but will they go back down to zero or 1%? That is unlikely in the next couple of years. >> Fascinating stuff as always and will get your questions on fixed income for Alex Gorewicz and in a few moments time. You can get in touch with us by emailing MoneyTalk life@td.com or filling out the viewer response box here on WebBroker. Nelson you updated on the top stores in the world of business and take a look at how the markets are trading. The world's largest farm equipment going in 2023, Deere and Co. , supply chain issues are easing. The company also expects a ramp up and demand in construction equipment material. Discounted merchandise is when on retelling Nordstrom and has unyielding year forecast despite having an earnings beat in this most recent corner. And not alone among the retailers trying to work on inventory through price cuts. CoucheTard, posted about fuel sales and up modestly at 2. 3%. And a quick look at the market, on Bay Street with the TSX comp index up a very modest will say 20 points or attempt of a percent and we see some pressure in the crude space under better pressure as well. And south of the border as we await the Fed minutes and the Americans take the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow and back for half-day trading and the Americans will be trading all we can help to guide you through, but Americans will be offered Thanksgiving. At a half-day on Friday. A very modest 8 1/2 points on the upside or fifth of a percent. We're back with Alex Gorewicz. Which maturity on the yield curve do you find most attractive right now? >> When we look at going forward, and as we approach the end of the hiking cycle or that we expect central banks to cut rates anytime soon, but does not raise them anymore, it means that longer maturities whether ten-year or 30 year maturities are going to respond more to economic developments. and we think this will point toward slower economic growth in 2023 in the coming months and so would prefer longer maturities. Shorter maturities, as I mentioned earlier, 0 to 5 year maturities, we typically find in a short-term bond fund, those are very responsive to monetary policy and we think that yes, central banks are closer to the end of the hiking cycles, but the level of inflation still remains too high and is expected to surpass their Target's for the next couple of quarters which means don't expect them to cut interest rates. If we think about where there is room for getting income or a yield as well as potentially capital appreciation, we prefer longer maturities. >> We think about how much is writing here in terms of how the central banks will do and how to bring us home in terms of how to deal with inflation without throwing us over the cliff, how difficult of a job is that? I would want to be a central banker right now. >> All of them have alluded to this, even if they don't have the dual mandate. For example, Bank of Canada has an inflation targeting mandate, where the Fed has a dual mandate of maximizing employment and achieving price stability. For the dual mandate, it makes sense of the talk about the strength of the labour market or about accomplishing the goal of the labour market front vis-à-vis their other goals of price stability, but even for Bank of Canada where they don't have employment as part of their mandate, we see them talking about the strength of the labour market. In both cases, there really alluding to the fact and I hate to put it this way, unemployment rise to really take the pressure off wage inflation which in turn should take the pressure off overall economic inflation. The problem with that is that history says if your unemployment rises by half a percent, it doesn't just stop there, it keeps going. In some ways, be careful what you wish for, you might get a softening in the labour market but then you might get a lot more than you bargained for. >> Let's take another question now from the viewers. Taking a look at corporate bonds heading into 2023, and ultimately the health of corporations? >> Is interesting that he talked about Nordstrom earlier because if you look at the retail sector, it is been a mixed bag this past quarter in terms of earnings. One thing is clear and that it is that they're all guiding lower. It is not just in the retail sector, it is across multiple sectors. Coming into this year, or maybe even coming into 2023, lots of expect slower economic growth and potentially even a recession next year, in a prior cycles heading intercessions corporations as well capitalized or didn't have as much cash or liquidity on hand. This time around, you're actually pretty good shape, in other words, they should be able to manage an economic slowdown, but it doesn't change the fact that when you consider the prospects of what you would want to own, corporate bonds or government bonds the alternative, he would have to give the advantage in an environment where economic growth is slowing in companies enough to get to the point where they are managing their cost better and they're still managing that cost for now, but they'll be hard-pressed to do that if economic slowdown is a lot stronger than we are expecting. So, there is a benefit to being in government bonds for the foreseeable future over corporate bonds. >> For someone doing their homework in the corporate bonds of space and peering a recession in the slowdown, what are some of the things you're looking for? I was thinking an equity point of view but will people get caught up with and with their reporting, but also for the bond side. >> Absolutely, and look at similar things like cash flows, if able to generate free cash fluids or even grow those, you're able to service your debt. And that is a simplistic way of thinking about it, but we don't necessarily look at any different type of metrics then you will consider for a stable equity investment when you think about corporate bonds. The key here though is we know it will be a challenging environment for corporations if economic growth potentially contracts and how do they choose choose whatever cash they have on hand? Are they going to increase their debt or they going to pay down their existing debt? From a bond perspective, that is an additional factor that perhaps you don't need to care about as much on the equity side. >> On a global view, how emerging markets looking for a fixed income perspective? >> Right now, they're looking interesting mainly for two reasons. More, when they started hiking before advanced economies did, they noticed the inflation pressures first and they're very disciplined in part because they have to be in order to attract capital, foreign capital, into their markets. In a very disciplined about raising interest rates very quickly. Now they are at a point where they can start slowing down or in some cases they have stopped altogether and there just in a holding pattern. The second main reason why emerging markets do look interesting here has to do with the US dollar. Obviously, the Fed compared to a lot of other advanced economies, the Fed went out first. Or, I wouldn't say first, but certainly went ahead of the pack very quickly in terms of raising interest rates and even now, they're expected to raise rates higher than say Canada, Australia, UK, Europe, and Japan is not even talk about interest rate hikes. When you compare where the Fed policy rate is versus everyone else, it is not surprising that the US dollar has been the strongest it has plus a lot of uncertainty around the world from a geopolitical respect of this year has put a beta to safety for the US dollar. A lot of those factors are now not supportive of the US dollar. The Fed is indicating that it does want to start slowing the pace of rate hikes and so it too is closer to the end and now it really just is a matter of, where do we get higher yields? And emerging markets certainly look attractive if you don't have the pressure of the US dollar rising. >> What could go wrong with the emerging-market thesis? >> Potentially, it could be the Fed rating hikes higher than expected. It could stay there for a number of months before pivoting and cutting. If it turns out, because the US economy has proven to be a lot more resilient even through this cycle and almost in every cycle feels that the US economy is more resilient than everyone else, and to the extent that it say it manages to avoid in this recession but everyone else potentially goes into recession, that could put a lot of pressure on the US dollar vis-à-vis the other currencies and a strong US dollar is generally not good for emerging markets. It does put a lot of pressure on them because both governments and corporations in emerging markets use US dollar as a funding currency, so as a means of raising fresh money. And that's going to be very expensive for them to do in an environment where the US dollar is high. >> I love having Alex on the show because the world is so complicated but she make sense of it! As always at home make sure you do your own research before you make investment decisions and moving back to questions for Alex on fixed income and a moment's time. And you can get in touch with us anytime if you email MoneyTalk alive@td.com. And those are educational segment of the day. What progress tools to help you research possible economic events. We have Jason, let's talk about WebBroker and what it can do for us in terms of technical events. >> Great to be here, Greg, thanks so much. We talked about screening for stocks now take you to WebBroker in terms of finding those technical events weathered is indicator crossovers, it is a useful tool to help identify buying and selling signals. While not your is looking to save some time or to be alluded to in these particular events have happened or maybe you're just a charting wizard and you looking to have WebBroker help you identify the signals on the chart, let's jump into WebBroker and I'll show you had used your best advantage. We will go to research at the top of the page and underneath the tools column will go to screeners. This is a commonplace event in the past, but this time you choose technical events. On this particular page, at the top of the screen we now have some drop-down menus that allow us to start filtering for sectors or parts of the economy that we want to look into diversifying to look geographically or look at particular exchanges and we also have the opportunity to look at particular sectors or industries. The sled and choose the TSX 60 in this case and can also narrowed down by industry or we can search by particular events. So this could be a good way to filter and kind of get started looking at particular trading ideas. And we've been able to find just down below here, there 55 matches of recent technical events or S&P TSX 50 stocks if would like to personalize this a little bit further, we can go ahead and choose the final on the left-hand side and this is where we get the opportunity to really kind of narrow the net we are casting out into the market to find ideas that work for us. We have the ability to select a particular market Or if there is a price range that were looking to identify a stock in, that option is here for us as well. For the rubber meets the road is that if we scroll down to look at the events type, we have the opportunity for this tool to scan the broader market based on the criteria that we have above for specific charting patterns. We've got those, their indicators were looking for let's say average crossover, things like that. Let's take a look at the candlestick patterns on this is an example. Let's choose the golf in line and this is what we teach in our master classes here on WebBroker. Once we've done that, you will notice that her 55 initial results have been narrowed down to just six. If we really believe in this particular pattern and why do can add in other patterns of want to broaden the search as well, we have refined 26 events that have recently happened and can draw our attention to do a bit more research and find out if this is going to be an appropriate investment for us. Another opportunity to work smarter and not harder is the ability to have this particular screen, to have it somewhere alerted Twins pops up in the market. And you can use this by clicking on the subscribe button above the tool and go ahead and give it a name and you be able to then a circle back and once again, be preemptively notified when these events happen. One thing I like to leave everybody with is an opportunity to learn about the specific patterns of events or indicator crossovers. Any of our technical tools within WebBroker, you'll notice there is a graduation At the top of the screen. If the going and choose that it takes some of the same menu that we notice in our screener and this time we can now dive in and learn about the specific events. The go back to short-term, and this time will select the engulfing line as well as we just demonstrated. We cannot track with us will visually look like on the chart and we can learn all about the event as well as other criteria for us to review we are implementing this particular signal into our trading decision. Lots of information and it's a great way to allow WebBroker to do the work for you. >> Great stuff, thank you Jason. An extra ticket WebBroker for more interactive videos, webinars, and master classes including on how falling markets. Rising opportunity. Before get back to questions on fixed income for Alex Gorewicz her mind if I can get in touch with us. Give a question about investing what is driving the markets? Our guests are eager to hear what is on your mind is to send us your questions. There are two ways you can get in touch with us. You can send us an email at any time at MoneyTalk live@td.com or you can use a question box right below the screen here on WebBroker. Just writing your question and hit send. We will save one of our guests can get you the answer right here MoneyTalk live. We are back here now with Alex Gorewicz taking your questions on fixed income and this one coming in, how will bonds impact mortgage rates in the short term? >> Everybody is looking for some kind of relief, and at the end of the hiking cycle, it should be my mortgage rates are going to come down and unfortunately, that is not the case or depends on which market you are in. Let me explain. In Canada, you can only take out a five-year fixed and we have five-year cycles on our mortgages, it means that shorter interest rates or government bond yields are going to dictate, 9 where those mortgages will be and will always be higher because if you count for the fact that the person taking on that mortgage might default. If we expect central banks to slow down the pace of rate hikes or perhaps stop altogether but not necessarily cut, it means your mortgage rates will go along for that ride even if it is a few more rate hikes from Bank of Canada and then stay there for some period of time. In the US, does little bit different because of you to get a 30 year fixed mortgage. If you look at the reference rate, it is longer government bonds for those mortgage rates which means that okay, the Fed could deliver more rate hikes here and that will put pressure on all interest rates across the yield curve. But if the economy starts slowing down and the longer dated interest rates start inching downward, that could provide a little bit of relief for I guess new borrowers looking for those longer 30 year fixed rate mortgages. >> In between the Canadian and American market, these are fixed products and anybody looking at this this year has noticed the right already and it is been in one direction. It has been up. >> That's a good point to and that is talking about existing borrowers. If we look at those in Canada, the percentage that have variable rates mortgages are actually relatively small, something like 25 or 30%. And those are absolutely building to your point, the rate hikes have been delivered today. But, we look forward, we will see that those that have been in fixed rate mortgages coming up for renewal. If we think about the impact of the rate hikes that the Bank of Canada has delivered to date and the impact that that is had on the housing market, share, felt that impact but we are going to be feeling it a lot more in six months from now or even 12 months from now even if they don't raise rates further. another question coming in. Does your guest like high yield it for the long term? Let's run down the here for long term. >> Something that high yield does have going for it and am kind of generalizing, there will always be opportunities. and corporations on average have managed their cash flow very well and the liquidity the cycle and that is true for high-yield bond as well. But if you look over the next 6 to 12 months we are more cautious on high-yield versus investing in part because those cash flows, that positive liquidity is drying up very quickly and in part because as we get closer to the end of next year, high-yield issuers are going to have to come back to market and the question is, and what rates are they coming back to market and what kind of impact will that have. And when I say come back to market, I'll say issue new debt or refinance existing debt. They were very good about locking in lower rates about a year or a year and half ago and on average, we look at high-yield index, that is going to change in the coming quarters and were going to be very mindful on what kind of implications that will have on high-yield spreads of the leveling which high-yield influencers can borrow as opposed to government. >> And we took at the high-yield space, are high-yield names built to like or different companies in different sectors might have different challenges in a high-interest environment? >> Absolutely, we can't paint the molten brush and there are plenty of issues that we like that are high-yield issuers that we classify as having what we call rising star opportunities in other words, they could be upgraded potentially into investing agencies. There are still a lot of opportunities of that kind in the high-yield space. The will make comments, we are kind of taking the average of all issuers and we are little bit more cautious. >> Another question now, but central banks, which central banks do that are closest to being at peak rates? >> Aside from emerging markets as we talk to earlier, we think Bank of Canada is quite close. We have one or two more rate hikes? Yes, but the Bank of Canada is very mindful and what I said about the impact to existing borrowers and mortgage holders in the next 6 to 12 months, they are aware that a lot of people be coming up for renewal and they're going to be like a deer in the headlights with the mortgage rates that they'll be renewing act. So, wanting to take the wait and see approach is probably more likely for Bank of Canada than say for the Fed. Another central bank that we think is closer to the end of its hiking cycle is Australia. Although, we could expect let's say 2 to 3 more rate hikes from the RBA, again, very similar dynamics to Canada in terms of its housing market. Very over indebted households and significant depreciation in house prices over the last two years and they do have a high percentage then Canada a variable rate mortgage holders. Again, that means that the effect of the rate hikes to date are probably going to impact to the real economy a lot faster. There are a few other smaller markets that are similar to Canada and Australia that we kind of put in the more interest rate sensitive sectors. And we think that those ones are closest to the end. >> We are from the senior deputy of the Bank of Canada, Caroline Rogers, yesterday and you think this is Lang the groundwork for the eventual end? She did lay out the weird you were going into this and that the household that was high and that the housing market had a lot of leverage in and do you think the central bank is putting the feelers out and getting us ready? >> I think so and Gov. Macklin did as well and said that the next rate hike could be several basis points or could be normal or rather, he said normal or higher than normal. >> Higher than 25? >> Yes, like back in the old days. Absolutely, I think both of them are doing that. They are putting not necessarily the feelers out there, but there the groundwork for the fact that we're coming to a point where it is not necessarily the end, but perhaps a pause have to do for a number of months. >>remember when central bank meetings did not do much at all? >> Yes, we should talk about rate hikes per quarter not every week! >> Will be back to questions for Alex Gorewicz in a few moments time. And it should your own investment research before investment decisions. In or about an hour and 1/2 away from the Fed minutes and then the Americans will have the Thanksgiving holiday. We will be the only show in town tomorrow, between us and the Americans, other markets will be open. The TSX comps index of a very modest 19 points just 1/10 of a percent and let's take a look at Shopify giving a modest bit today just up a buck a share at 2 1/3%. We do see some pressure today on the price of crude in this check in on Synovus and just up .2% to the downside and south of the border, as the Americans wait their thanks going holiday, with the S&P 500 screen on the screen just up the percent about eight points and tech heavy NASDAQ doing a little better percentagewise and hanging in there, about half a percent right now. And Nordstrom, all that aggressive price markdowns to try to loosen inventory out of the back room is weighing on the profit outlook. You have Nordstrom down a little more than 5 1/2%. And back now with Alex Gorewicz at TD asset management and taking your questions, let's get back to them. Any signs we have that inflation is cooling down? Are we winning the battle? We've been in this battle while, making a dent in it? >>a bit unchanged from the prior month, but the US CPI in the US is let's say a couple of months ahead in terms of the trend both when inflation was rising and now that it is turning a corner, it's been a couple of months ahead of Canada. It's almost a foreshadowing of things you can expect here. But, in the US we saw a surprise to the downside for the first time in some time and it was in the rollover goods inflation that we are expecting where she said the market was expecting, we are starting to see some Mrs. to the downside in services inflation which has been strong in rising and now starting to show signs of potentially either rolling over or at least, not continuing its upward momentum as it was in prior months. To the extent that that of that trend not just continuing but picks up momentum, I think we can expect inflation to continue heading downward. >> Another question about the fight been in and whether we are using the right tools, are these hiking rates pointless because of the wave of inflation is a natural and how history judge the way this was handled? If this is the tools we have, do we have the right ones? >> We could see your debate about all kinds of things. >> It's almost a philosophical discussion! >> That's right. But taking these tools and looking at hiking rates and how they're deploying that in this fight. If you look at the most recent commentary will get a lot more indications from the Fed minutes today as you mentioned, but he knew that Heather guiding us, the Fed, their same with think it's time to slow down the pace of rate hikes, but Powell did tell us in the last meeting, now we probably have to hike rates even further than what we thought before. The question is, how much is that? With think somewhere between 4 1/2 to 5% is a peak rate and the cycle is appropriate. And why do we say that? Because even if you assume inflation stays above their Target of 2% it will probably be somewhere between 2 to 4%, let's call 3%. In that case, a policy rate at 3 to 4% is still sufficiently restrictive. If you take that subtract where inflation might end up, is a very positive number. And that it held there for some time could do the trick to slow down inflation and this is where central banks now have to remember that well, they got it wrong on the first go around in the thought inflation was transitory and turns out it wasn't. Maybe here they are assuming that they have a lot more control over it than they actually do. To say, we need to hike rates further and they tell us the need to go away above 5% and some people think they will tell us they need to go to 6%, it's probably overestimating how much of an impact they have on those inflation dynamics. That is my way of saying that perhaps they don't need to hike a lot further in it what they should to say is, there is still a lot of uncertainty around inflation. The interest rates are probably sufficiently restrictive here it held at this level for a period of time. Just to give it an opportunity to work its way through the economy. That might be better from an option out a perspective if you are the central bank than saying we are hiking to 6% and causing a really bad recession and having to pivot. They are probably overestimating the control that they have with this very blunt tool. Again, not debating the toolkit, particular tool for what it is. It is effective, but not necessarily the best one for targeted measures. At the moment, we can't say that the inflation that we see today is still a global problem. Look at the fact that Asia, for example, is missing inflation to the downside and it's close to 2%. That's right. You can't really make that argument that, okay, we know it initially caused inflation but going forward, the sources of inflation in order to normalize might just require time and patience rather than continuing to hike. >> Always so insightful! >> Thanks, Greg. >> Alex Gorewicz, from TD management. And tomorrow we will have Jennifer Nowski. And you don't have to wait to get your questions in, email MoneyTalk live@td.com. And that's all the time we have for our show today. Thank you so much and we will see you tomorrow! [music]